Tuesday Forecast

279 Comments

9:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)…
A warm front will move into southern New England today, taking its time at first. You’ve heard talk of the threat of severe storms, and I will not downplay that, because there is a threat, but the atmosphere has presented us with a layer of warm and stable air to overcome first, and that may be quite preventative in storm development for several hours. Later, any storms that do form will favor western areas, but they cannot be rule out from migrating eastward later in the day into this evening. Once again, expect more isolated coverage of heavier activity versus a more general outbreak. Will monitor conditions this afternoon and update in the comments section if needed. The most unstable air will be around tonight as we are in the warm sector, with high humidity, and a cold front approaches. This may trigger some nighttime storms until the cold front crosses the region, which it should do by dawn or shortly thereafter on Wednesday, which will turn out to be a breezy day with lowering humidity but absent of an additional rain threat. The next shot at a few showers/storms will be later Thursday with the approach of another front, but this will have limited moisture to work with. High pressure overtakes the region and brings fair weather Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated light showers north and west of Boston this morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Any storms may be strong. Increasingly humid. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere but likely late in the day. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to SW late.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 64-72, warmest urban areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lowering humidity. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly late-day. Lows 62-70, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-88, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-66, coolest interior valleys. Highs 78-88, coolest in coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-66, coolest interior valleys. Highs 78-88, coolest in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)…
High pressure should hang on for fair weather August 21. Slow-moving but weak front brings more humidity and a risk of showers August 22-23. Fair and drier August 24-25. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)…
Overall pattern looks mainly dry with limited shower/t-storm chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

279 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK.

    So, does anything happen today or not?

    Why do you think so many models have practically nothing for qpf.
    Reasons you stated? Other reasons? Bad initialization? It’s something.

    Will this be a total bust? Or will some folks see some rain? many thanks

    1. Something happens, but just not everywhere.
      Low QPF is because of the reasons stated above.
      A bust is a meteorological slang term for a bad forecast, so I hope today is not a bust, in terms of that. 😛
      Coverage will be isolated, maybe scattered, in the neighborhood of 25%. The wildcard is tonight when we could get a surprise squall line or cluster.

  3. TK you need to use terms like “historical”, “unprecedented”, “rain storm of the century”…you are loosing me with this no-hype lingo. Yes, sarcasm. Thanks!

      2. Thanks to TK who has the patience of Job (since I have asked and then confirmed several times) I think we have our best basement location pinpointed.

        Now, GettingBetter, you have thrown a monkey wrench into my plan. I have to go back to square one and decide if we should add digging to the equation 😉

  4. This is SPC discussion which JPDave posted on previous blog
    WITH STORMS FURTHER
    INCREASING/SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. IN THE
    PRESENCE OF MODERATE BUOYANCY…RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
    /GENERALLY 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE/ ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA INTO
    WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND WELL-ORGANIZED
    LINE SEGMENTS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
    ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY/HUDSON VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT NEW
    ENGLAND/PA/NJ…ASIDE FROM A MORE REGIONALLY PREVALENT RISK OF
    DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL /PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
    SUPERCELLS/.
    JPDave comment
    btw, often times within the 5% a tornado watch is issued. I wonder IF
    we see a tornado watch today, at least in and near the 5% area.

    1. Thank you, JJ, for this and your link above. I’m asking because I know there are some new readers here today and, frankly, I forget the meaning of the percent. I recall 5% or 2% or 1% risk does not mean out of 100 but is determined in another manner. Would you mind explaining again?

      1. The percentage is the chance of seeing a tornado within
        25 or 50 miles of your location. I can’t remember which it is.
        1 of those. It would be even LESS like near 0 to see one at
        your exact location.

        2. Didn’t make my question clear. I cannot remember who posted it but amazingly I not only saved it but found where I saved it. This was the comment I copied.

          “When talking about the percent chances, keep in mind that the percentages are based on an average day of weather through the entire year. It is not a 2%, 5%, etc. chance of “X” event happening today, but rather compared to the average weather day for the entire year. So while 2% sounds low, it is rather high compared to an average annual weather day (in that it is comparing to the chance of “X” event happening in a composite of days beginning in January and running through December).

          I realize scientifically why they rate the chances in this manner, but I think it is confusing for the general public. The chances of a tornado happening for a day in July is much higher than a day in January obviously, so adding an additional 2% risk on top of that chance represents more than a 2% risk of it actually happening.

          I hope this makes some sense, but it was the best I could do from a layman’s perspective.”

      2. Vicki – I could be recollecting incorrectly but I think it means percentage increased probability in addition to the normal – already existing probability for that day? But I am the “neighborhood jester” so could be remembering this or understanding it completely incorrectly. But I do recall something along those lines?

        1. It is always fun to see you posting here. Your comments make me laugh – with you of course and never at you.

          I figure I have now seen my miracle for the year. I rarely remember to save something but when I do, it is even more rare that I remember where in heavens name I put it!

          1. I must say finding that post was very impressive! And of anyone I have ever “met” (virtually or in person / present blog company excluded of course!) you may well be the least likely of all to be capable of laughing at anyone – your kindness shines in every single one of your posts.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    What do you consider to be “western areas?”

    I think of Sutton as mid-MA but then I know that 495 is often used as the line dividing east and west. Thank you!!

    1. Not TK. To me, Sutton is NOT western areas.
      To me, and this is I and not anyone else, Western areas means
      CT River Valley to the Berkshires. 😀

      If he had said inland areas, then Bingo, Sutton is in.
      Western areas? I think that would be a stretch.

      Again, just my thoughts.

    2. I should pin point. I just basically use from the Berks to CT Valley as western, CT Valley to the western reaches of 495 as central, and anywhere east of there as eastern.

      For today’s purposes, I’m referring mostly to west of Worcester County for the greatest severe risk.

      1. Thank you, TK and JPD. That is exactly what I had pictured in my mind but wanted to make sure I was not misinterpreting.

  6. Eric wrote back. The man is amazingly responsive. With a deep sigh I have to say I enjoy him as much as I have always enjoyed Pete and you all know that coming from me that is high praise indeed. Just a down to earth guy.

    This is his response. It makes sense to me.

    Hey Vicki – I feel like we end up using ‘spin-up’ to describe brief, short-lived tornado potential instead of your more classic supercell origin type of tornado. Think Revere vs Springfield. When it’s a setup that could potentially spin one up quick but likely not sustain it for a while. I’d say this is most often the case when we don’t have discrete supercellular storms in the forecast…and often occurs when we have a warm front draped across the region.

    Hope this helps!

    E

    1. Awesome. He answered with pretty much what we thought.

      I still DON’T like the term. I understand the distinction, but it is still
      a TORNADO no matter how you slice and dice it.

      Oh well, it looks like the term is here to stay. At least we know exactly
      what they mean. Pretty much the definition I posted yesterday. 😀

  7. Btw, based on the dew point rise or should I say LACK thereof, I would say
    we are a long way from getting into the warm sector. 😀

  10. Waiting on the 4KM NAMm but the regular NAM places the biggest threat in our area
    between 3Z and 9Z or 11PM and 5AM. Nice, eh?

  11. Between 0z (8pm) and 6z (2am) on the 12z NAM is when the instability is the greatest.
    It is aggressive with EHI helicity supercell composite significant tornado parameters for a good chunk of SNE in that time period.

  12. I have never seen this map that was posted on this tweet from meteorologist Tyler Jankowski who works where Ryan Hanrahan works. Its a vertical vorticity map from NCAR model. Some pretty decent values northern parts of CT and northern Hudson River Valley. What those values translate to I couldn’t tell you.
    Here is a link to the twitter page and the map.
    https://twitter.com/TylerJankoski?lang=en

  13. Its the second tweet down with the map and here is the tweet with it. NCAR model
    Severe thunderstorms possible later today. 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. looks to be of interest for rotating storms.

    1. Not nuts about night anything when tornado possibility. I think a good number of us will be under the bed with Tom and his family….or digging holes in our basements with GettingBetter.

    1. Tomorrow???

      I honestly do not recall a time in my years that we had regular discussion of tornado potential. I do recall the occasional mention back to when I was in grade school….just not routine.

  19. Okay now when the SREF starts picking on something up you pay attention.
    The links that JPDave and I are posting are impressive for our area for the time of day and even cutting the 12z NAM values in half there impressive.
    Now does this materialize?

    1. IF anything were to happen it would be overnight in Eastern Sections.
      Not a good time for severe weather, so let’s hope any night time action
      is at worse a strong thunderstorm and nothing more.

  24. From Taunotn NWS

    */ Highlights…

    * Strong to severe storms today
    * Heavy rain and damaging winds the main threat
    * Low risk of a tornado
    * Confidence greatest impacts over N/W portions of MA and CT
    * Impacts: downed tree, tree limbs, power lines, urban and poor
    drainage flooding

    Severe…as the warm front lifts N/E, will see dewpoints surge
    into the 70s and with available sunshine and boundary-layer
    destabilization, expect mean-layer CAPEs to build to roughly
    1000-2000 j/kg in an environment of W/SW shear of 0-6 km around
    30-40 kts, and of greater concern, continued 0-1 and 0-3 km
    veering wind profile and low LCL`s.

    Veering wind profiles, most notably in the 0-1 km with a reaper appearance per
    the 12z soundings out of Albany and Upton NY

    1. Do NOT underestimate the importance of low LCLs.

      Important take: In a supercell thunderstorm situation, a low LCL (closer to surface) increases the likelihood of tornadogenesis since the region of CAPE will be closer to the surface.

      What is LCL? Complete Discussion:

      METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

      1. What is LCL?

      The LCL (Lifted Condensation Level) is the pressure level a parcel of air reaches saturation by lifting the parcel from a particular pressure level. A rising parcel of air cools, thus the relative humidity increases inside a rising unsaturated parcel. Once the RH first reaches 100% in the parcel, the LCL occurs there.

      2. How is LCL determined?

      First note the temperature and dewpoint that is 50 mb above the surface pressure. Draw a line parallel to the dry adiabatic lapse rate starting from the temperature that is 50 mb above the surface. Draw a line parallel to the mixing ratio lines starting from the dewpoint that is 50 mb above the surface. The intersection of these two lines is the LCL. The sounding at the bottom shows a LCL of 546 mb. It is very high since the PBL is very dry.

      *note: Different computer algorithms will often have different starting conditions for the parcel. Some will use the surface temperature and dewpoint. Some will use the temperature and dewpoint that is 50 mb above surface. Some will use the average temperature and dewpoint is the PBL. Parcels of air that are used to locate the LCL originate from the PBL. Mixing of air is frequent in the PBL– thus the use of the temperature and dewpoint toward the center of the PBL (50 mb above surface) is a good starting point.

      3. Operational significance of LCL:

      Cloud bases: It determines how far air needs to be lifted to produce clouds.

      Tornado: In a supercell thunderstorm situation, a low LCL (closer to surface) increases the likelihood of tornadogenesis since the region of CAPE will be closer to the surface.

      4. Pitfalls:

      a. The LCL that is commonly plotted on a sounding is only relevant for lifting that is occurring in the PBL. Use the LCL for cases of warm season lifting resulting from low level convergence (not from upper level lifting).

      b. Do not use LCL in cases where parcel is rising from the PBL due to positive buoyancy alone (use Convective Condensation Level in those cases).

  25. Looking at some of the short range models and reading that technical discussion it’s a wait and see what happens. The ingredients are there.

  31. Reviewing 12z .. I continue to like the idea of LESS coverage. I hope nobody is thinking this is going to be a widespread outbreak of storms this afternoon. It isn’t.

    1. Nope. Was hoping for widespread rain, realizing it was likely NOT to happen.
      Widespread severe. Nope never thought that would be the case.

      1. We certainly won’t be seeing any widespread beneficial rain. There is an outside risk of an overnight surprise, but if that were to happen, it would probably be a thin line of very fast-moving storms.

        1. I’ll take whatever rain I can get.
          I am MOST disappointed in the Accumlated precip
          charts for all of these models. For all of the potential
          and pwats blah blah blah, not much happening.

          1. The pwats are the pwats. You still need to trigger something. We lack large-scale triggering many times this season.

  33. Watch for a few cells near the south coast of CT soon. These will be telling. If they don’t last long it’s a sign of convective inhibition ongoing.

    1. Ones north of there have basically gone poof. Just what TK was saying.
      One approaching Groton has not died yet. Still watching

  36. Still very overcast in the City. However, temperature is up to 83 here with dp at 65.
    sky shows signs of brightening every so often.

  38. Just like last week nothing there and then you got activity.
    SPC update for today will be coming out shortly.

  40. Those are low top heavy showers so far. They are having trouble getting up there. No lightning so far, which is no surprise in low top stuff.

    1. Remember, most of those are low topped. Only 1 CG so far as of 1:11PM. So officially so far we have a bunch of showers and 1 thunderstorm. 😉

      1. Still not seeing lightening with them.

        Thanks for everyone’s posts.

        TK, thanks for yours as they are giving great keys on what to look for….even for the average person such as me!

  46. I am waiting here with the sun out. Hopefully any storms will happen when I am at work this evening and I don’t have to drive in it.

  47. Showers just started to pop out in many areas of MA. Looks like broken line of showers moving to the northeast from CT into West. and Cent. MA.

  48. Short range guidance did a decent job picking up the initial batch of scattered showers coming out of CT.

  49. At least 2 of those eastern CT cells have weak rotation but they are producing virtually no lightning.

    1. Since those CT cells are headed (loosely) this way….may I assume that the rotation will not hold? Or could it intensify?

      Another learning moment. I always thought (from long ago) that you need thunder and lightning storms to have tornadoes. Is that true? If it is, and I know you said rotating and not tornado, then would they require considerable intensification to produce a tornado?

      Thank you!

      1. Not TK, but IF the updrafts were sufficient and rotating, I presume we could get a weak tornado without the thunder and lightning. Waiting for TK response.

      2. I don’t think they will sustain all that well across MA in this batch, but will watch.

  51. That SPC mesoscale discussion was posted more than 45 minutes ago. If not watch issued in the next 15 min to 1/2 hour, then NONE will be posted and the discussion
    will come down. I’m guessing NO Watch. Prove me wrong SPC!!

  52. My wife wants me to bring the plants in. I told her IF I see a bad storm approaching,
    then I’ll do it. I am home with her today. 😀

    1. I am afraid I just jinxed it, JPD. I took the umbrellas down. So feel free to blame me if we get nada. Don’t be hesitant as I will be blaming myself.

      Mrs OS and I think alike!

  58. Eastern CT with special weather statements
    Here is the one in northeast CT.
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    120 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

    CTZ004-RIZ001-161815-
    WINDHAM CT-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
    120 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

    …THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WINDHAM COUNTY…

    AT 118 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRENTHENING
    THUNDERSTORM NEAR POMFRET…OR 10 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD…MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
    STORM.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    KILLINGLY…BURRILLVILLE…GLOCESTER…PUTNAM…THOMPSON…
    BROOKLYN…WOODSTOCK…POMFRET…CHAPLIN…HAMPTON AND EASTFORD.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS OR UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOW LYING
    AREAS NEAR SMALL STREAMS.

    THESE STORMS MAY INTENSITY AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE.
    STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    &&

    LAT…LON 4179 7201 4182 7213 4202 7194 4191 7167
    TIME…MOT…LOC 1718Z 232DEG 14KT 4183 7202

    $$

    THOMPSON

  59. Here is for the other one
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
    128 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

    CTZ008-161815-
    NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
    128 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

    …A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NEW LONDON
    COUNTY…

    AT 128 PM EDT…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEDYARD
    CENTER… OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORWICH…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
    MPH.

    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

    THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
    GRISWOLD AROUND 150 PM EDT.
    HOPKINTON AND VOLUNTOWN AROUND 205 PM EDT.

    OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE NORTH STONINGTON.

    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY CAUSE
    LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
    ROADWAYS.

  60. There is alot of clouds, Humidity only at 44% and temperature is about 78 here in Billerica, i know what some of those models are showing are impressive, but i think most activity will stay to our west.

  62. We had a brief heavy shower awhile ago – sun has been in and out. Warm and sticky out but not much more sticky than earlier. Sun is in and out. Clouds are kind of impressive – seem to be moving northwest to southeast yet precipitation is moving generally west to east or southwest to northeast. A complicated day weather-wise!

  64. Our cap is holding strong for now. Stuff goes up, can’t penetrate it, and rains out. And the key words today remain “low coverage”.

    1. Are they ever dying off once they cross the Ct/Ma or Ri/Ma border.
      WOW! ALmost instant death. Booo

  65. Nearest real lightning is in Pennsylvania and Maryland.
    Not looking good for any real action around here, SPC tease aside. 😀

      1. You have been saying that all along. BUT, is there a legitimate
        shot?

        Are we going to have some more Atmospheric Nocturnal Emissions like the other night?

        1. The air will be at its least stable tonight. With a proper trigger, there will be activity.

  66. Dew point up to 68. Feeling awful yucky here in my un-airconditioned office. YUCKY!!!!

    So yucky, one would think we could at least pop a shower for some rain. HA HA
    fat chance of that.

  67. One cell has made the trek into Northern RI, will it last into MA? Getting pretty dark here in Walpole

    1. It almost looks like a bunch of old cells are congealing into one larger rain
      area and moving NE. C’mon rain. You can do it.

  69. TK, why will the air be more unstable tonight? Prob’ly a silly quesion – may have been answered earlier. So, we could get severe weather late at night – like around midnight?

  71. First warned storm of the day in SNE. Severe Thunderstorm watch up for areas north of Hartford.
    In the wording they are saying this storm has the potential to produce a tornado.

  75. One things with these storms that have fired today there has been very little lightning. Opposite of late last week and Saturday night when there was a lot of lightning with the storms.

    1. Oh, boy…correlation coeffecient on that area is blue. Usually a sign of debris. Hopefully, it’s just wind, but that couplet is tight.

  78. 72 dp at Logan with ESE wind. Not exactly into the warm sector, BUT something
    has changed with that dew point. If the front hasn’t passed, it’s certainly in the area. 😀

  79. They just had a weather in cut on that storm and meteorologist Mark Dixon now this cut in was ten minutes ago said there was slight rotation with that storm.

  80. This tweet from meteorologist Tyler Jankoski about 8 minutes ago on that storm
    Eastford to Woodstock…rotating storm moving through…move inside now.

  83. rainshine, to answer your question above…
    Tonight, the air turns much cooler fairly quickly aloft with the approach of a short wave. That, along with the surface cold front lifting the muggy/warm air in place, will have a better chance at triggering something.

      2. Tops on that storm and the other severe storm are 30-35k feet, at least according to radar. There’s only been 1 strike from it, though.

  85. Why is that cell even warned? I don’t see anything impressive with it.
    It looks garden variety to me.

    1. There was some light hail with it, gone now. Also seems to have high winds. There’s also some pretty good rotation with it.

      2. There may have been brief rotation, but it is not there any more.
        In fact, it appears to be weakening.

    1. No surprise to me. Isolated is the operative word today. The better lift comes tonight with the approach of a short-wave and cold front.

      1. I’ll believe it when I see it or in this case, perhaps hear it.

        We’ve had our share night time storms this year, that’s for sure.
        Are we going to add to the list?

          1. Ok, good to know they WILL be around.
            That always goes without saying. Who knows if
            one will be in the path or not. 😀

  89. The cell with rotation is approaching an area that has been cooled slightly by rain and overcast the last hour. I believe this may inhibit the ability to sustain an updraft, unless it re-forms to the east of itself.

    1. Again, must be old information OR I’m going blind or my radar display is
      on the fritz OR all of a sudden I forgot how to read these displays.
      AND I am looking at 2 different displays.

      Radial Storm velocity from Weather underground Boston NEXRAD
      and storm relative velocity from Radar Scope.

      AND I just checked them both. NO rotation.

  92. About what time do we think the window of possibility will close for rotating storms? Still midnight? I’m too old and tired to stay up until midnight!

    1. TK can answer better, but based On what I have been looking at,
      I wouldn’t call the all clear until sometime after 2AM, possibly as late
      as 5AM, depending on your model of choice.

      1. The town calls if there’s a tornado warning – right? (She said hopefully…) bc I get up for work at 4:30 so staying up until 5 doesn’t seem prudent.

        2. I’d like to think they do

          I’m headed to your house to set up in that hole you dug in basement. I didn’t have time today.

          I DO NOT LIKE the time you gave us, JPD. Would you please reset it????

          1. Don’t shoot the messenger.
            Did you see the vorticity generation portential
            chart I posted for 2AM?

            THe values all over our area were .5
            That is HIGH.

            Keep in mind: Those value are meaningless if
            there is no Convection to go with it. Have to
            have storms fire for any risk.

              1. And no one here would ever shoot OS the messenger – I cannot imagine reading this blog without your passion! I even steal your lines sometimes…

          2. I think we should set up a woodshill phone chain – like they had in school in the ’80’s – except the problem is the storm would beat us as we dialed frantically!

            2. Could be done with texting. I have some
              ideas. BUT texting, phone call etc.
              How do you determine who needs to
              be notified.? We’d need a map of locations.
              See if those people are in the path and then
              notify accordingly. It gets tricky. Wouldn’t want to warn someone in Connecticut when a storm is bearing down on Sutton. 😀

  94. TK…amazingly accurate again. Our rain earlier did in fact do the trick. Warning is gone

    GettingBetter. I’ll see if I can send some rain your way to do the same!!!

    2. Thanks Vickie! My plan is to go to sleep hoping I don’t wake up in the land of Oz….

  95. Had a little tiny bit of rain, and now the sun is coming out 🙂 I’d like to think this is setting up some convection 🙂

  96. Had a quick .30″ from a downpour here in Wrentham. Temperature dropped almost 10 degrees. A couple storms have tried to get rotating, but nothing sustained so far thankfully. We won’t be able to sound the all clear until late tonight though.

      1. I’d certainly take TK’s word over mine, but I agree with you, the threat is there through around 3AM.

    2. That does look impressive, but you also mentioned those parameters are useless if there are no storms, maybe that what we will lack

      1. TK says there WILL be storms. And since storms will be more
        isolated than not, very conducive to these parameters.

  98. PERFECT! I don’t BELIEVE THIS!!!! The Boston Nexrad radar
    is DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE! WHo plans this crap? What piss-poor timing!!!!

    Just when we absolutely positively NEED NEED NEED IT!!! Better be fixed
    before midnight)_!@(#&*!@&#*&!*(@#&*!&@#*(&!@*(#&*(!&@#*(!&(

    1. It’s a technical glitch they had no control over. It was not planned.

      And speaking of, my WHW account is down for maintenance as well. I’ll be using this one for a short while.

  99. These aren’t classic supercells today. Very tricky to warn on. They’re low topped with minimal lightning, but brief tornadoes can develop very quickly in these environments. The storm heading through Milford now and in the general direction of Boston has had my eye for awhile. It got a severe warning awhile ago and has been behaving since, but things can happen fast.

  100. BOX radar is working fine for me… That storm I mentioned really looks interesting now. The one northwest of Worcester is rotating as well.

  101. I seem to be getting good radar data on my mobile device with Radar Scope.
    If the nexrad is down, not sure where it is coming from, but I’ll take it.

    I see 2 storms of note:

    1 by Milford and 1 by Worcester.

    They both are getting a “Hooky” look to them, even though velocity displays
    are not yet showing rotation.

    I agree with WX. I don’t like the looks of either of them

  102. Harvey just said he had seen a bit of a hook on cell around Townsend.

    And daughter said they had incredibly strong winds in Uxbridge for 5-8 minutes. Minimal rain here…3 miles away… and that was all she wrote

    1. NO cell near Townsend. None.
      He must mean the one near Worcester. See above I just said the same thing,.

    2. Son in law said there was what looked like something rotating at the end of their street right in the middle of the severe wind. He tried to video but then ran inside. I’m waiting for video.

        1. It is not a good video but I can see what he means. SIL said daughter was yelling for him to get inside. He assured her he was in a nice safe, light van 🙂

          I’ll post to TK on FB

    1. Warning has specific warning to remain alert for a tornado.
      Interesting. BUT not a tornado warning at this time, just a severe
      thunderstorm warning.

  107. I know there are a few new readers out there today! Welcome!
    And don’t be shy. You don’t need to know meteorology to join the discussion! You just click to add a comment and it will ask you for a screen name and an email. You can use any name you want (keep it in good taste of course). I need to approve you once provided you stick with the same name and email. If you change either, you’d need to be re-approved.

    HOWEVER, I’m without my Admin account Woods Hill Weather until about 7PM, so I’m using my alterego which has very little admin power. 😉

  108. RAP is also showing STP >1 for western, central, and northern MA at 11 tonight. Would assume that it would cover most of MA as the night progresses.

  109. Yup – the inner core big hero 6 here all have aliases! Welcome new members – nobody knows less than me and no one has been welcomed more warmly so if I can you can -?please post away! But not about hiding under your bed – that’s my turf!

    1. I will second that…please join us in the fun! We all have one thing in common….a love of weather.

  111. fast moving dark clouds moving over, here in billerica, some light breezes coming from the same direction instead of the southerly direction of earlier.

    I think i probably just get some rain but who knows.

  112. Squeezing a dry lemon. That’s the only metaphor I can think of when it comes to rain this summer in Boston. Such meager amounts. This said, our weather has been much, much better than most of Northern Europe. Get this: Since the 1st of May, the Dutch meteorological institute reports 7 (yes, 7) so-called “nice weather days.” Defined as: a. More than 50% of the time sunshine; b. Above normal temps. Folks, it can be that bad in many parts of the world. So, I’ll stop my complaining about the 3-H.

  113. About 1/2 inch warm frontal rains in Gilmanton, NH ….. Now in Andover, MA seeing the back side of the heavy shower exiting the Merrimack Valley.

  114. NJ storms at 7PM may be in southern New England between 9PM (west) and midnight (east). NY storms may arrive via VT/NH during the wee hours.

    This assumes all activity holds together.

    I should have WHW back shortly.

  116. With 15 days to go in August, this is a list of the 11 driest June-August periods in Boston and how this summer (to-date) compares.

    1963: 5.31 inches
    1883: 5.19 inches
    1953: 5.05 inches
    1997: 5.05 inches
    1965: 5.02 inches
    1999: 4.84 inches
    1993: 4.82 inches
    1907: 4.75 inches
    1995: 4.43 inches
    1949: 4.14 inches
    1957: 3.97 inches
    2016 to-date: 3.02 inches

  118. Storms are weakening in ny state already . Probably be few rumbles of thunder and rain by the time it gets here. This even seems to be a bust.

    1. The event is actually going about as expected. 🙂

      But we have to keep an eye on those lines to the west. There are a couple things in place that can re-fire them. We wait to see if this takes place.

        1. No. It was more a matter of advecting better conditions into the region tonight. The colder air aloft is still up over NY/VT.

      2. Well you did forecast isolated storms in nature and not widespread. i guess i was just wishing for more an
        I meant other outlets, including the nws made it seem worst which i guess i don’t know made me have high hopes which then made me dissapointed but oh well at least no chance of night tornadoes or at least i hope not. I was hoping for a good lightshow tonight, was thinking about going to hike up the hill on horn pond and view the lighting from above.
        Do you think anything will form ahead of this line? And what does have to happen in able for these storms to intensify again?

        1. Oh boy i apologize for the long sentence lol. That was painful to read. Using punctuation marks is a pain in the neck on my phone

          1. In complete honesty, I loved reading it. It totally exemplified the excitement combined with some disappointment that we all feel.

        3. That’s a great hill, but not a good place to be in a storm because of no shelter. However, if storms are in the distance and you know nothing will be nearby, it’s ok. I can see that hill from the top of Woods Hill. 🙂

          1. Thanks vicki, i enjoy your comments as well!
            And yea i forgot to mention lol i would only go there to see distant storms, i have been there once before couple years ago and there was a storm to my southwest and i saw the most spactatular lightshow ever, at leasy from that point.

    1. Several waves lined up in Africa – it looks like we are going to see the tropical Atlantic activity heating up a bit as we get towards the end of the month. What impact that may have on the east coast remains to be seen but we are overdue for something.

  123. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

    The front is through. Dp dropped from 72 to 68 at my house.

    Quite a lesson yesterday. parameters can be through the roof, but if we don’t
    get storm initiation, then NOTHING happens. 😀

Comments are closed.