Sunday Forecast

114 Comments

10:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)…
A cold front will cross the region tonight with the only rain threat this period. High pressure moves in later Monday then dominates through Thursday with Monday bringing a refreshing air mass then the mid week warm-up is still expected.
TODAY: Sunshine dominant into afternoon, yielding to increasing clouds late-day. More humid.
Highs 76-86, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Band of showers moving west to east across the region. Briefly heavy rain possible. Humid. Lows 62-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W toward dawn.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Drying out. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)…
Other than a few isolated showers around the August 27-28 weekend with a dissipating front in the region, mainly dry and warm to hot weather is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)…
Overall pattern mainly dry. Will watch a couple tropical systems offshore but early indications are that they will not threaten the region. Temperatures mostly above normal.

114 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. They also keep talking about “heavy rain” tonight. It’s a cold front moving through in the span of a few hours, and we’re in a drought. They’re going with 1/2-3/4″ across the region. Even if you cut that in half, I still think it’s too heavy.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Question. I did mention previously that I do not recall as many tornado threats mentioned as this year and perhaps a few previous. Have we had a tornado threat mentioned by NWS recently when there was not at least some rotation that showed in systems?

    1. They’ve got tornado on the brain down there at Taunton.
      The more they do that, the less people listen.

      1. And this from their brethren in Upton, NY:

        The threat for any strong to severe storms appears to be quite
        low at this time due to late day/evening timing…weak
        instability…and lagging deep layer shear. With strengthening
        low-level shear/veering wind profile ahead of weak wave
        development…low lcl`s…and weak surface instability will have
        to monitor for shallow rotating updrafts in any
        tstms…particularly along the coastal plain.

      2. I figured that was the concern. And I’d they are warning when not warranted, that is more than dangerous and irresponsible. I’m just not remembering a day when they said tornado possibility and there was not some rotation.

    1. It’s not us, but the EURO does do a little something with a weak low pressure area east of Florida. Sends it westward across the northern Gulf.

  11. 75 / 65 at Boston with a pretty firm ocean breeze, which was expected. It’s what you call mild & humid. It’s hard to be really cool in August unless you are fairly cloudy with a stiff northeast wind, or have an pre-autumn cool air mass from Canada.

    1. Firm ocean breeze????

      ESE at 25 mph with gusts to 31 mph. I’d say that was pretty firm.
      Shouldn’t that cause some convergence somewhere??

      NO effect here. It feels hot here.

      Dp 65 stinks as well.

      1. If and I do say IF and it is a Big IF, we were to generate strong enough convection with ESE wind at the surface, veering to S and SW above, then theoretically there would be a chance for rotation would there not?

        The missing ingredient appears to be CAPE. There just doesn’t seem to be enough. Although helicity may be up, there isn’t enough Cape to generate decent EHI numbers.

        1. You’d need it to be colder upstairs. There is convergence but not a lot of instability so we just have a small bank of cumulus well to the west. The winds are also more gradual in their turn, so it’s a broad zone rather than a sharp line.

  14. Tonight’s rainfall…
    About 75% of the region should get 0.25 inch or greater.
    About 25% of the region may get greater than 0.50 inch.
    About 10% of the region may get 0.75 inch or greater.

    I do NOT think this will be a beneficial event for most locations.
    Anything above 0.50 inch is decent but far from a big help.

    Given the upcoming pattern, we have yet to see the worst of the drought, and it’s going to last quite some time still.

    This drought is not related directly to anything unusual. Droughts are part of our climate. We don’t get them as frequently as parts of the Southwest, which also makes total sense given where we are on the continent. Our droughts tend to be less severe and much shorter-lived than their southwestern counterparts. We’ve had them before, we have one now, and we’ll have them again.

      1. That is true, but without consistent rain the positive impact is less. After tonight, we could go 7 to 10 days without the threat of anything.

          1. Me too. I’m just worried about the gardens..especially the one we planted for Mac. Am figuring it out

  15. Some potential based on radar trends and short range guidance for a fine line or broken line of convection to develop and move across the region in the wee hours of the morning. That’s how we could get the more widespread heavier rains. I think TK’s breakdown is a good one though.

    And after this, looks largely rain free for the next 10 days, maybe more.

  16. Thoughts on end time for the rain? Exercising outdoors in Natick tomorrow around 5:00 am–wet or dry?

  17. Having just driven home from Nashua to Brockton (a rare weekend morning/early afternoon shift for me), there is a warm front right around the Mass Pike. Since the car I am driving this weekend has no AC, I had the windows down, From Nashua all the way down to Waltham, at was between 81-85 on the car thermometer, and felt rather refreshing. All of a sudden, right around the Mass Pike, it clearly felt warmer, and the car thermometer spiked to 92, and stayed between 89-92 most of the remainder of the way home, dropping back to 86 once I got into Avon and then Brockton. The obs bear that out: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=11&scroll_zoom=false&center=42.39278353804252,-71.26075744628906&basemap=ESRI%20Topographic&sidebar=hide&boundaries=false,false,false&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind&obs_popup=false&obs_density=2

    1. Been a decent east to southeast wind here for several hours. It’s humid, but not hot at all, so you know I’m well into the cooler side of the boundary here!

  18. Looking at radar, looks like a good batch of showers/storms have formed. I think about .5 of an inch with embedded higher amounts are possible.

  19. Just a comment on the tropics. The NOAA has issued one and really two updates on their hurricane forecast for this season. For sure they are now forecasting heavier activity than their original forecast. there are a few out there now and more to come.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

  20. TK, thanks for your forecasts and great explanations. I agree with you most of the time. And, since I am not an expert on the climate or weather any disagreement I have is based on observation and not science. You’d beat me every time in a climatological discussion. Nevertheless, here’s my slight disagreement. You are correct in pointing out that droughts are natural phenomena and that we shouldn’t be unnecessarily alarmed. This said, the drought that I’m seeing in the Boston area (and throughout parts of NE) is as bad as I’ve ever witnessed. It’s gotten to the point where it’s having a significant impact on the ecosystem. A few examples: The berry production in uncultivated areas (eg, blueberries) is virtually nihil. I know. I’ve gone to places to pick blueberries and found zero berries worth picking (all dried up and shriveled). I’ve been picking blueberries all my life and have never seen it this bad. This lack of natural berry production impacts bears and others negatively. It’s important we not underestimate this. They are suffering. Another example. I visited Spectacle Island today (one of the Boston Harbor Islands) and it’s so parched that many of the planted bushes and trees are suffering badly. Not the evergreens or crabgrass, but everything else is in serious distress. While this is a naturally occurring phenomenon it is not `normal’ for this area to look like Mariposa county in California. I’m sure it’s happened before, but not often.

    2. Anything that you have seen, or I have seen, or has happened within “recorded weather history”, though significant to us as people, has occurred within a span of time that is rather insignificant in comparison to the time the earth has supported such events in its history. We feel it to be a big deal because it’s “now” and it impacts what we are doing.

      Though I do not downplay the impact of the current situation, I find it very important from a historical perspective to remember that this is one of many events of this magnitude, even if the impact varies from place to place.

      For example, the 2002 drought was worse regionally than the one we are currently in, but less severe locally.

  21. The moisture is on the rise. Dp has crept up to 67 here. Getting into the YUCK zone
    for sure. If we have to pay, how about some decent rains. Is that too much to ask?

  23. NWS just will NOT drop the tornado talk. They have to sneak it in there into the
    discussion.

    In addition, surface based and mixed layer CAPEs are about 500 J/kg
    and 0-6km shear values between 40 and 50 kts, is enough for a risk
    of strong storms. This is not a setup that usually produces much
    severe weather, but the risk for some isolated wind damage is there.
    The models are not developing a secondary low pressure system over
    southern New England as strongly as they were overnight and
    yesterday. That said, should one develop, there is a very low
    probability of a brief tornado or waterspout developing. However,
    this is a very low probability.

    1. And also redundant in their wording. Two sentences in a row use the phrase “very low probability”. It reminds me of a toddler repeating the same phrase over and over to make sure mommy or daddy hear it.

      1. I always take a sigh of relief when you are not worried TK. That way I can sit back and enjoy the show. Thank you

        And it Reminds me of a presidential candidate…..oops did I say that out loud 🙁

  24. 18z GFS worth mentioning, I believe, because of the 12z EURO.

    Both, in very different ways, take something fairly weak east of Florida and develop it in the long range (days 8 through 10).

    Maybe something closer to home will end up being a watcher.

  26. I was at daughters in Uxbridge for a cook out. That later afternoon felt wonderful with a breeze and great air. As the sun started to sink, the humidity felt as if it were rising….not only on my skin but my hair, which is an exceptional indication of DP. Breeze still there but air now that I’m home feels even more humid…..or close 😉

    Temp around 75

  30. The TV weather media needs to stop talking about tropical systems and attaching dates to systems that have not formed yet.

    I’m serious. It needs to stop.

    1. Agree. It is anything but smart. It simply gets people edgy and then panics them if anything actually has a chance of getting here

    2. I have been very disappointed with the news weather meteorologist and has really opened my eyes to what they news media reports in general. Never the truth and always leaning toward a direction. Never straight down the line.

      1. You gotta do your own research and choose media sources that are not biased. Then fact check anyway and listen to the words in videos. As for weather…..all you have to do is come to whw

  33. Tornado warning in central Middlesex County, radar indicated.

    I don’t know what I’m doing up at this hour.

      1. Oh boy. I see it. Due to expire in 20

        I have no idea why I am up either. If you are still awake, do you see signs of a tornado?

          1. We have several I think in that area. Not sure where getting betters exact location is. Is it headed to Woburn? I cannot tell

  35. It’s the little red triangular tip, which I think is part of a broader rotation.

    From the looks on radar, it appears to have weakened some and hopefully it was just rotating above the ground and nothing made its way to the surface.

      1. The latest update is at 3:24 and still had radar indicated rotation.

        Yes. At times, I’ve had a weather radar (not now), but I wonder what it must be like if that thing just blared in the middle of the night, in darkness, tornado warning. Now a fun way to be woken up.

        1. I was thinking of getting one but it is scary enough for adults never mind kids

          Woburn center just out of box but don’t know where TK is in Woburn

      1. The whole storm is rotating, like a mini low in that area.

        Latest update just came in …..

        Source : “power outages and some tree damage reported earlier in Marlborough and concord, but extent is unknown at this time.”

  38. A tornado may have touched down. Not sure. There are reports of trees and wires down in marlborought and especially concord. A tree fell in a house in concord actually.

        1. It is past her. I so want to txt to see if she is ok but don’t want to wake her since there is no longer a threat there

      2. Vicki if you follow wx1box on facebook you will see updates on storm damages. Here is the latest updates from them.
        Concord, MA: Multiple trees down. Minimum of at least 2 trees down on power lines and one tree down on house – Lexington Road. #mawx
        Update: Concord, MA: Lexington Road – resident in area has trees down on car. damage concentrated in area of hawthorne inn. #mawx
        Update: Marlborough, MA: 1911 people without power in town as of 332 AM. #mawx
        seems like something happend based on these reports

        2. Thank you Kane. I found it and liked it. Damage in Marlboro is near where my niece is. I cannot believe I didn’t see that. I did txt her but have not heard anything.

  39. I understand the nws wants to be cautious but why put my town (Reading) under the tornado warning when it’s going north of me. The list of cities sometimes they put under the storm track doesn’t make sense,this will make people ignore warnings in the future. The storm on radar passed a good 10 miles north of me. I understand if they put out a warning there to the north but putting it somewhere where there is no threat will just cause a panic

    1. Is it possible for other systems to be spawned? I don’t know how they work

      I think it is about to expire if it hasn’t. Replaced by t storm.

  40. Fine here. Broad weak rotation. Damage was most likely not tornadic. In fact, the broad rotation type cell has occurred in this area many times before without having a tornado warning issued.

    Interesting that NWS now terms things thunderstorms that are not actually thunderstorms.

    This was a rain squall on a cold front. One cell had broad rotation and produced wind damage. I suppose it’s arguable whether or not the tornado warning itself was necessary, but given the position they’d have been in if they did not issue it, I guess I can see why they did.

    Here in Woburn we had brief heavy rain, no thunder, and the front just went by and the wind shifted and is now a gusty northwest and the air is quite refreshing…

    2. Thanks TK. So glad all is ok there

      Wankum says warnings go ahead of storm which I know you know. But I think makes sense to be safe I guess.

      Wankum mentioned how odd it was not to see more lightening and also not have accompanying t storm warning.

      Odd night.

  41. Some of the wind gusts right behind the front are above 30 MPH, straight-line out of the west northwest. The irony is that there is a large segment of the population that will now hear those and believe they just lived through a tornado. 😉 Oh well.

      1. They’ll check it out, but I’d make a bet that it’s quite likely they will not find tornadic damage. We’ll see.

        I guess the standards for warnings are different as I’ve seen tighter rotation not warned. Perhaps it’s just because it was “overnight”. Maybe they were trying to verify their discussion. At least they have wind damage to back that up.

        From what I’m hearing here the damage is confined to a very small area about 6 miles to my west. We’ll know more soon.

  43. It’s nice to see the southeast part of the band of rain solidify some.

    We’ve had some downpours.

    One of the scituate reservoirs on rte 3A is so low. At least a third of it is completely dried up, so hopefully we’ll accumulate some decent rainfall in the next hour.

  44. I read the blog every day but do not write often. Woke up to a tornado warning on my phone. I live in Woburn. Warning for Woburn so I took my phone and went to the basement. Darn, I couldn’t find my portable radio to take with me. Panicking in the basement so found Woods Hill Weather on my phone and read what you were saying. I’m back upstairs and have read TK’s analysis. I have to get up for work in an hour but am calm now. Thank you so much for “staying with me!”

  45. Slept right through it but thankfully did not wake up in the Land of Oz!

    Thoroughly Heart warmed and touched to see Vicki and Tom’s discussion of earlier – amazing community. I guess maybe trying to set up an opt in text / cell /phone alert system isn’t a bad idea – I assume if we made it optional it would be ok re: privacy? Let me know TK. I’m happy to set it up and administer it if it’s helpful and then we could distribute it to those on it so anyone whose awake could send shout out? We could have people’s handles, county, cell , home phone and email?

    Just a thought – if no good I’ll go back to digging in the basement but with all of the false threats lately it might be best just to move down there!!

      1. Good call – I’ll wait for a day when I’m not working so can actually be present for discussion for a change! Unless anyone else wants to – I’m just as happy to follow as to lead – can pitch in however helpful.

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