Wednesday Forecast

147 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)…
High pressure south of New England will send some late summer warmth and increasing humidity back into New England through Friday. The only rain threat is from a passing cold front on Friday that may produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few locations. High pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend with fair weather, slight cooling, and lower humidity.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere except cooling slightly on east coastal beaches in the afternoon. Wind light SW with some east coastal sea breezes in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-68, warmest in urban areas. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 76-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 62-70, warmest urban areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 76-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 77-85, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-66. Highs 75-83, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)…
Higher humidity and a few isolated showers/t-storms August 29. Fair August 30-31. A few showers September 1. Fair September 2. Temperatures generally above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)…
Mainly dry pattern with limited shower chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

147 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. 99L feeling a bit of northerly shear this morning. 😉

    I would love to take one of these tropical disturbance areas and make a photo slide show of the path and final position of the “resultant hurricane” on every run of the GFS (or you pick another model) going forward, then plotting the actual path of the entity regardless of its development, or lack thereof.

    1. Thank you, TK.

      Indeed, I’d love to do the same with economic predictions – both bullish and bearish – based on a variety of models. At least in meteorology you’ve got models that come close to verifying. Economic models do not. To be fair, many of the variables in economic models are a function of human behavior. And we know how irrational humans can be.

  3. Thank you, TK. Sounds like glorious upcoming weather but sure wish there were some rain in there.

    Also, I read your comment twice and am not sure what it means. Sorry.

    1. That is actually pretty decent, considering the drought conditions.
      Sure we’d like it closer to 100%, but it’s nothing compared to what it could
      be. I think all will be fine, UNLESS this drought continues into next Summer.
      Then, I think we could be in serious trouble.

      1. I’m pretty sure when I checked its level and mentioned here about a month ago it was a fair amount higher. But 87% is a good sign.

  7. If you look where the EURO has the landfall the areas affected by the floods would be on the right side of the circulation the side with the strong winds and in some cases isolated weak tornadoes.

    2. It’s interesting ….. The areas of highest ocean heat content must shift over time because looking at the Gulf, there’s lower heat content where Katrina exploded over higher ocean heat content in 2005.

  10. The northern lights could be seen as far south as York Beach last night. It got me to wondering why we hear more and more about being able to see them from here and whether that was my memory playing tricks. I guess it is not my memory and they are indeed moving south. The Third link is from 2015 and says eventually they will be able to be seen in the United States…..that was just a year ago and here they are.

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/08/24/northern-lights-maine-aurora-borealis-sugarloaf/

    From 2010
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-10880852

    From 2015
    http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/the-not-so-northern-lights-aurora-moving-south-from-the-arctic-study-shows

    I have yet to see them but it is one of the things that I would very much like to witness.

        1. I found the comments with regard to poles flipping very interesting. I also was interested in the belief by Mr. Kent that, while he will see only limited changes as will you and I, our grandchildren will witness far more.

          Time to add a discussion of the northern lights to my fun chats with the grandkids.

        2. Social media.
          Internet.
          Cameras everywhere.

          Compare this to pre-2000. There is your main reason we see more of just about everything. 🙂

          1. I understand that is the reason in many cases but not all. These folks give excellent explanations for the lights dropping further south that seem to be very legitimate. We may be more aware of the Northern Lights because of those reasons but it does seem that they are definitely further south than in years or decades past.

        1. Wow – I think my granddaughter should start coming here if only for the links. Great photo, Tom. Thanks.

      1. I saw them on a trip to Alaska back in 2003. Truly amazing. In fact that entire trip was. Would love to go back someday, as long as it not with the same person who went the 1st time.

            1. There are truly no words that can capture the beauty of those pictures. Thank you for sharing.

              I laughed out loud at the Fenway photo. Are the two at the end ones you have framed at home?

              Mac’s cousin lived in Alaska for a couple of years with her husband before they had children. I live vicariously through stories and pictures such as yours.

              1. The 2 at the end were from the Alaska Museum of Art and History. It was literally a 2-floor museum with the 1st floor being history and the 2nd floor being art.

                As for the Fenway one, we found a place called Humpy’s Great Alaska Alehouse in downtown Anchorage. It was the home of the “Far From Fenway Fanclub”. We watched game 7 of the 2003 ALCS there with about 250 Red Sox fans. And yes, the place was dead silent when Aaron F’n Boone hit that homer.

  11. Vicki, re: Italy earthquake. The epicenter of the strongest quake was about 50 miles northwest of my wife’s family. My father-in-law was trying to reach them all night and was able to get through this morning. Some minor damage to the family’s farmhouse in the central Apennini mountains but nothing too serious where they are in the city of Chieti. They did feel it though. My wife’s aunt fell while running out of the house when the shaking started and is in the hospital for minor cuts and bruising but other than that everyone is ok. The ground is still shaking today as they’re getting many small aftershocks.

    3. Ace – you have been very much on my mind. I didn’t realize your family’s home was that far north of Abruzzo so thought they would have been out of the “zone.” I am glad the damage was only minor and am so sorry to hear of your aunt. I cannot image how terrifying it must be.

      I know Mac would have known but I do not know if the epicenter is in a mountainous area. Do you?

      I am sending prayers for your family in Italy and for all of you here.

      1. The epicenter is in a very mountainous region but all up and down the Central Apennini range quakes can be felt even hundreds of miles away on either side of the mountain range. Luckily it wasn’t in a heavily populated area but the few medieval towns around there and not equipped to handle major earthquakes. Where the majority of her family lives in a larger city on the east side of the range on the eastern coast far enough away where there wasn’t much if any damage but still terrifying. The family’s farmhouse which is currently empty is further into the mountains and closer to the epicenter. Strange thing is, my father-in-law was supposed to be there by now to get ready for olive picking but his trip was delayed due to a health issue.

        1. Thank you again, Ace. I am sorry to hear of your father-in-law’s health issues but it seems that they kept him away from the area which is good. I do recall Mac talking about visits to the Appennini’s but we never talked about quakes.

          Daughter said it was felt in Rome which is not much of a surprise I suppose.

  12. They’re used to the ground shaking out there though, much like in California. Many small quakes on a regular basis, but this one was no small quake. This was similar to the quake in 2009 in L’Aquila which did moderate damage to the family farmhouse. That one was closer.

  13. What the EURO has right now, does make sense due to the placement of the high pressure, we will have to see what way the low moves, if it goes to the east of the high pressure or goes to the south of the high pressure, and if it goes south of the high pressure and travels along the edge of the High, that track very well could happen. Even if its not a Hurricane, it would be devestating for that area, and there will be talks of relocating those people from that part of Louisiana, as these events will continue to increase due to human caused climate change.

    1. It still could have it cross Florida and then into the Gulf, but it would appear
      it wants to take it up the coast. How far is the question. If things move
      quickly enough North of that center, then there might be an opportunity
      for it to move up the coast, else it will either be forced Westward OR more
      Eastward out to sea.

      Impossible to know at this point.

    2. The NAM might just be the absolute worst possible model to use for a tropical system. I’m serious. It’s worse than the Canadian in terms of the tropics.

  16. Ridge of high pressure building over Mid Atlantic looks to force system west instead of coming up east coast. The bigger thunderstorms with this are not with the center and if it goes over Hispanola it might tear this thing apart.

    1. totally agree, I think this thing is more likely going to ride the southern edge of the high pressure over the southeast and hit the flood stricken areas just like all the other tropical precipitation so far this season has done.

  17. 12Z HWRF seems to have lost Invest99 yet again. 😀
    12Z GFS says I don’t care. Has it weakly and then loses it.
    Waiting on GFDL and complete HWRF. Also waiting on 12Z Euro.

    Maybe we get away with NOTHING on this one? We’ll know soon enough.

    1. It has an awful lot of obstacles down there. It seemed from watching the video last night that the pieces either fit perfectly or poof.

  18. Still no closed circulation according to the recon. Until it can close off a circulation (if at all), the models are suspect at best.

      1. Sure seems like I am picking up on a circulation there?
        Do you see that OR am I totally losing it?

        1. Yes. That’s why I posted it. It’s weak and it’s disconnected from the big blob of convection. Still must be seeing shear. With that said, in looking at the satellite loop you posted, I think one can almost argue that there is a ridge of high pressure aloft trying to build in above this system. I just don’t think their overlapping yet.

          1. I think that’s the sfc circulation and then in the central Antilles, might be a mid level swirl. Suffice to say, it is disorganized.

    1. It takes a loop across Georgia and SC and comes out on the coast of
      NC. Where does it go from there? Likely OTS.

          1. I think that this would take it 100-200 Miles SE
            of Nantucket. Close, but I think this run
            would spare SNE.

            Of course being 10 days out, there are 20 runs
            left and it will probably change on ALL of them. 😀

            I’m hoping we get a clearer idea of what
            might happen in a few days.

          2. I so agree about LA. Fun viewing those. Thanks Dave. And I do understand that they are way in future so anything but a reality.

  21. Here’s my concern …..

    We’re down to hrs 144 to 168 ……. 6 to 7 days lead time.

    Your best model for 5 straight runs now has some kind of impactful event.

    I hope there’s some awareness of this unnamed, unclassified system or there’s a chance a certain area in the gulf coast or I suppose the southeast coast are going to get only 48 to 72 hrs of lead time preparation.

    If the EURO ends up flopping on this, then so be it. But based on past performance, I hope there’s some awareness down there of at least reviewing plans or checking supplies, etc

  23. I think that run of the EURO gave the same message that it’s prior few runs have ……

    If this thing gets into the Gulf, the upper air environment is going to be conducive for development and potentially rapid development. I’ll bet the pressure isn’t as low on that run because of the close proximity to land with the track.

    To me, the more specific details will probably arrive 72-96 hrs before impact and it will come more into focus when all the mid latitude energy can get better resolved. Then, there’ll be more accuracy with the placement and amplitude of trofs and ridges from the gulf of Alaska to the U.S. East coast that will ultimately decide the track of this thing.

    1. Yes, but is the Euro close to being correct. The Hurricane models don’t do much with this thing, at least not on the 12Z runs. We shall see.

  24. I believe TK suggested last night that 99L would remain weak and never really organize before sort of “riding up” the FL peninsula? Well, that’s exactly what the models are converging on now, even though they didn’t show a hint of that yesterday. That’s not exactly what they all show of course, but it’s clearly the trend. It’s worth watching, but IMO will not be a major player for anyone.

    1. As I said above, in your video, it sure looked as if it had too much to overcome and too many pieces of the pie to fit together to make it. Talk about a bunch of strikes against it.

    2. IF the Euro weren’t showing something, I would agree with you 100%.
      However, the fact that the Euro consistently has been picking up on this
      is reason enough to give me pause. IT may not be a Cat 4 or Cat 5, but it is possible it gives someone some grief. We shall see.

      1. The Euro has consistently been picking up on this? Really?
        A few days ago when the Euro was the only one NOT developing 99L, you thought it was right. So, which is it? Was the Euro right a few days ago when it didn’t develop it, or is it right now when it does?

        1. Yes, the last couple of days. A few days ago, no it didn’t have it at all.

          And yes it gives me pause. IF it doesn’t give you pause, that’s fine. It still gives me pause.

          We’ll know soon enough. 😀

        2. Sak it has have it at different strengths, with similar tracks. It tells me that it depends on what happens within the next 24 to 36 hours before calling it off

  25. The Euro is neither right nor wrong, same as any other model, until the event takes place.

    The Euro is (often but not always) very good at systems that are already closed off circulations. It does an excellent job with regards to interactions of these systems with other systems, especially mid latitude ones. However, all models, as SAK pointed out, are suspect until we have an actual closed system. The Euro is not exempt and does not have an upper hand over any other model in calling for development/track of systems that are tropical waves or disturbances at the time of model initialization.

    1. Sure, understood, but to me it still means “something” that it has been
      somewhat consistent in at least having it the last 2 days. Again, we shall see.

      Could be it ends up being absolutely nothing. We’ve seen that before.

    3. Perhaps because it is so close to the radar, but I am having trouble seeing
      the rotation on several different radar displays???

      What am I missing? I screwed up somewhere.

  27. With the possible tropical system, I just did a map of all the models I have access to. All the modes though with different strengths and some timing differences, all have similar tracks till it makes it around Florida.

    EURO has been consistant for the past few days, will like to see another day of runs of the euro. the other models like the gfs has been flopping around. EURO also has support with its ensemble members/ (EPS)

  29. Pretty decent sized tornado near Kokomo IN a short while ago.

    Yes this is the same front that will come through here tomorrow with little fanfare. A good example of the fluidity of the atmosphere.

  30. Ok…my take on any tropical system is that something that’s offshore by 100-300 miles would be ok with me as it usually creates some interesting tropo ducting along the coast and for my FM long distance radio hobby that’s a good thing 🙂

      1. I think we should guess. And thank you, Keith

        I guessing that the airwaves which is probably an incorrect term reach further places

              1. Yes…a chance to pickup Florida on FM via tropo ducting (something only a few dxers…ahem..cough cough…have reported) 🙂

                1. That is very exciting. And I have to disclose that you have explained this to me prior althiugh my explanation left a ton to be desired

          2. Thank you Keith.

            I remember a time in the late 60s when this was occuring and another in the early 80s.

            Is not even enhanced more when there is an inversion?

            Anyhow, in the 60s, I received Portland, ME
            FM radios stations as if they were from the city next door.

            In the 80s, I was clicking the dial on my TC down the Cape in Falmouth, not too far from the
            sound. Honestly, I picked up the broadcast of some UFH station in Maryland. I was quite surprised, but attributed it to the conditions you describe.

            Cool stuff. Thanks again.

            PS I used to have a hobby of locating far away AM stations. I had picked up one of those old fashioned AM radios and hooked the antenna up
            to the roof top tv antenna (I Know, that would help F, not necessarily AM), but helped it did)

            I used to routinely listen to WKBW in Buffalo
            in the day time and even better at night.
            Anyone remember JOEY REYNOLDS?

            I would pick up Chicago, Detroit, San Antonio,
            Denver, St. Loius, Pittsbut, Ft. Wayne etc etc etc.
            I know some of these you can get at night virtually anytime, but I still enjoyed finding them and listening and writing it in my log book.

            I understand your passion.

            2. I remember the first time I got hooked on FM dxng…it was back in 72 and I had Hartford and NYC on a cheap little portable during a duct or inversion (not what is was now). TV dxng is still out there but a little bit harder in the age of digital TV. There is also E skip propagation for TV and FM…that’s another story entirely and lots of fun. I also dx AM (and Shortwave and Longwave…heck most bands). AM is still a lot of fun and can be done with a decent portable to boot. I have a couple of SDRs for my dxng (software defined radios) with lots of big antennas. Using SDR’s allows me to record up to 10 mhz (half of the FM band) and play it back later as if it were live!! Same for the AM band. My longest daytime regular on AM is WFED (the old WTOP) from DC. But on the cape I have received Florida and the Carolinas on AM during the day). At night I’ve received Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Brazil, Colombia, etc on AM. It’s a fun hobby. Down the road I’ll put up my spreadsheets of my logs on dropbox if anyone wants to take a look.

              2. Cool. Thanks.
                I do remember picking up the old wtop myself. But never did I receive the exotic locations you have.

  31. I believe that yesterday SAK sent us his note/forecast on the front crossing the plains and mid-west. He mentioned how vigorous it would be, and so the evidence bears this out.

    From a philosophical perspective, I’m interested in TK’s statement on the Euro model: “The Euro is neither right nor wrong, same as any other model, until the event takes place.” Of course, a model may `verify’ with respect to one event and be proven invalid on another. In essence, this suggests the temporal nature of models (none can be universally accurate all the time), but also the contingent character of meteorological models. Some do better with certain variables and contexts than others.

    2. Yup, my work blog yesterday talked about the strong front and the potential for severe weather in the Midwest, with “a few tornadoes possible”, but I don’t think anyone expected what happened today in Ohio/Indiana.

  33. I see that the 18Z GFS still has no interest in INVEST99 and so it goes.
    One model’s garbage is another model’s treasure. 😀

  34. Invest99 looking mighty ragged.

    Perhaps a touch of regen towards the end, but that might just be day time flare ups.

  36. Decided to go back and see how the models are actually doing with 99L. Decided to look first at the 12z runs from Friday. The 132-hour forecast would be verifying right now.

    http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/archive/2016/al992016/al992016_2016081912.png
    http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/archive/2016/al992016/al992016_2016081912_inten.png

    The consensus was that the storm should be centered roughly near 14N/60W. Reality is that is near 19N/66W. Nearly all of the models had it as a tropical storm already and the majority had it as a Category 1 or 2 Hurricane.

    Let’s skip ahead to the 12z runs from Sunday, which means the 84-hour forecast would be verifying right now:
    http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/archive/2016/al992016/al992016_2016082112.png
    http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/archive/2016/al992016/al992016_2016082112_inten.png

    Consensus was that it should be centered near 17N/65W. Better, but the wrong side of PR/VI, which makes a huge difference for their forecast. As for intensity, several kept it as a weak TD (or less), but still, most had it has a moderate tropical storm (or stronger).

    Keep these stats in mind when you look at the current model forecasts for 84-hours and beyond.

    1. Very true. Thanks for checking it out.
      We know the models often do not verify very well.
      You should see us in Winter.

      We get on a roll. We still look at them, all of them.
      We have fun with them.

      U haven’t posted one I like to post in Winter. Agsin, I know it’s not a particular good model, but I use it for what ifs.

      The DGEX. Wonder what that says about invest99?

      I’ll have look see.

      2. I took a look. I am mobile, not going at posting links.
        I’LL try in a moment, but it takes a pretty potent system on shore in Geogia, then goes inland, slowly emerging
        On the NC coast at hour 292. Hits GA hour 138

  37. Surely it is extremely rare if not unprecedented in modern meteorology to be totally blind to an impending tornado outbreak just hours before the event like we saw in IN/OH today. Not “blaming” anyone, but it honestly rattles me a little bit because I didn’t think a miss like that was possible anymore. Luckily, no fatalities and only minor injuries reported so far, with the event still ongoing but winding down.

  40. 6Z DGEX brings it to SC

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f132.gif

    6Z NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016082506/namconus_ref_frzn_eus_52.png

    0Z CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016082500/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png

    0Z EURO

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082500/ecmwf_mslpa_eus_7.png

    6Z HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016082500/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

  41. From Bernie

    Bernie Rayno
    7 hrs ·
    System is going to develop as shear relaxes.center will stay N of Hispaniola. video thu.

    1. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
      11 hrs ·
      While the crew prepares for a 0200L (2:00am Thursday morning) takeoff on WP-3D Orion #NOAA43 into #Invest99L, the NASA Global Hawk, piloted by NOAA aviators, takes to the sky over #TSGaston to support NOAA’s 2016 Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology, or SHOUT mission.
      Learn more about this mission here: https://uas.noaa.gov/shout/ and http://www.nasa.gov/…/nasa-global-hawk-flying-to-tropical-s…

      http://www.extremestorms.com/images/P3.jpg

      http://www.extremestorms.com/images/SFMR%20Probes%20on%20wing.jpg

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