Thursday Forecast

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)…
A little hotter and a bit more humid today as the southwest wind strengthens north of high pressure. Cold front passes through Friday with isolated showers/thunderstorms. High pressure brings nice weekend weather. Humidity and isolated showers make a comeback Monday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 76-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 62-70, warmest urban areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 76-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 77-85, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-66. Highs 75-83, coolest coast.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)…
Mainly dry weather. Only a few isolated showers August 31 or September 1. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)…
Mainly dry pattern with limited shower chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

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145 Responses to Thursday Forecast

  1. Longshot says:

    TK thank you for the update.

  2. Philip says:

    Thanks TK!

    Now that it appears that 99-L will track right up the west coast of Florida, I would think that we should see remnant moisture in one form or the other here in NE. We shall see.

  3. Sue says:

    Thank you TK.

  4. JpDave says:

    Latest Tropical Atlantic – AVN Color Infrared Loop

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-avn.html

    • JpDave says:

      It seems to keep flaring up and down.

      Sooner or later it will decide one way or another, either a tropical system
      or not.

      We’ll know soon enough.

      Btw, Bernie thinks it WILL become a tropical system and he says he’ll have a video today.

  5. Vicki says:

    Thank you, TK.

    I had planned to start the AC early to keep ahead of heat and humidity in hopes of using less electric, but there is such a lovely breeze that I ended up opening all windows.

    It is high 60s with low 60 DP. But I’m already noticing a different smell to the air. Not the crazy, lazy, hazy days of summer smell any more.

    • JpDave says:

      Dp at my house was 65 when I woke up and fluctuating between 66 and 67 when I left the house.

      • Vicki says:

        I just looked again and mine up to 65. Somehow it just doesn’t feel like it. Perhaps the breeze.

      • JpDave says:

        Just checked remotely. 66 at my house.
        66 currently at Logan, so I am feeling good about my DP
        sensor.

        • Vicki says:

          Nice

          I have not pulled the plug and purchased the system you have. I have been working wirelessly with my computer to make sure it doesn’t slow things down so that I can use the port for the weather system.

    • Tom says:

      That earlier morning coolness sounded nice Vicki ! I wish I had taken my walk then !!

  6. JpDave says:

    Too bad ALL of the models couldn’t be initialized and run hourly.
    I can’t stand waiting 6 hours for the next run. But then I’m nuts.

    • Tom says:

      I must be nuts too ….. Wait, I already knew that.

      I feel the same way waiting for the next model run.

      • JpDave says:

        That’s what I love about this site, most folks here share my
        same passion. Wy wife KNOWS I’m nuts. She has to constantly
        remind me that I need to talk about other subjects than the weather. I drive her out of her mind at times.

        She’ll ask me if it’s going to be warm today and instead of answering with a simple yes, I will say something like:
        “The high pressure system is sliding off the coast allowing for
        a plume of tropical air and warm air advection to move into the area with the return flow and sufficient solar insolation to drive temperatures to 90 or above.”

        She’d much rather a simple “yes”

        Do you have that problem as well?

        • Tom says:

          LMAO ….. Yes ! Same give and take here and same request from my wife and others. :) :)

        • Vicki says:

          I talk about the weather blog as if it is my best friend and those on it are my family. If someone mentions weather, I’ll also give a running account of what TK or Tom or OS (they refuse to refer to you as anything but Old Salty) or JJ or North or anyone has said. I know they think I have lost what little marbles I had left.

          Yesterday, one of my daughters asked immediately if Ace’s family was affected by the earthquake. Seems they not only know names but also facts about all of you from my chatter.

  7. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK.
    Will invest 99L develop that is the question. It does not look good at all. 0z EURO still wants to develop this system affecting southern Florida and then getting into the Gulf and affecting big bend area of Florida before becoming a fish storm when it emerges over the Atlantic.

  8. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

    Last few frames of the loop, swirl north of Hispanola.

  9. JimmyJames says:

    Where the center with that storm is my question looking at that loop.

    • Tom says:

      I think it’s north of central Hispanola, near the tiny southeasternmost island of the Turks and Caicos (I think that’s the Turks and Caicos)

  10. Tom says:

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

    Look at the feed of moisture into Louisiana and Texas, goodness ……….

    Anyhow, lots still inhibiting 99.

    1) it’s heading into a dry environment west of it.

    2) shear is pretty obvious.

    However …..

    I wonder if the little upper level low moving southwestward down the mid-Atlantic coast of the US eventually gets into a position somewhere in the west central Gulf, so that to the east of it, it helps to provide a better upper level of environment in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and maybe that’s what the EURO is picking up on ???

  11. JpDave says:

    Btw, The 12Z model runs or at least the Hurricane models, “Should” have the extra
    data provided by the Hurricane Hunter flight incorporated in. Perhaps that
    will shed some light on track and intensity or lack there of. We shall see.

  12. JimmyJames says:

    If the shear is light in the Gulf Of Mexico and no dry air those temps are like bath water and will support a strengthening system. Sometimes we see these tropical systems strengthen very quickly at the last minute before making a landfall.

  13. JpDave says:

    From Jim Cantore re: Invest99-L

    Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 1h1 hour ago
    Ultra tiny vortex roaming into Turks & Caicos. Look at the size of that thing!! Lots of wind on north side of vortex

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqtOPFsXYAAKUYs.jpg:large

  14. Tom says:

    80F, dp : 64F at Logan.

    But there is a nice breeze which helped during my walk.

  15. JimmyJames says:

    As talked about yesterday that high pressure ridge making whatever this thing becomes move west and putting the east coast out of play.

  16. JimmyJames says:

    12z NAM tomorrow as usual over cooking the instability.
    SPC has us in general thunderstorm risk.

  17. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Same idea on 99L I had a couple days ago.

    I.E., no changes.

    • JpDave says:

      So you still like the idea that it fizzles and/or remains a broad area
      of disturbed weather East of Florida with NO organization????

      • JpDave says:

        I am getting the feeling we get a hurricane into the Gulf. Where it will strike and at what strength, no way to know. 😀

    • JpDave says:

      Do you really still feel that way? Or are you being stubborn because you
      said that a few days ago? 😀

  18. JimmyJames says:

    The place where you never want to see a tropical system is there as there will be a landfall somewhere.

  19. JimmyJames says:

    Couple tweets from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan about the tornadoes in Indiana yesterday and Gaston
    Yesterday’s surprise IN tornado outbreak to me was a testament to how far forecasting has come. These misses happen SO rarely now.

    The tornado outbreak was a good reminder that there’s a lot about tornadogenesis we don’t understand – we still have work to do!

    Swells from Hurricane Gaston arrive in South County RI and Outer Cape Monday AM. Big waves.

  20. JpDave says:

    Some latest info from NHC

    Latest Graphical representation, including center of Invest99-L

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/graphicast_at_latest_sm3.png

    Tropical Activity, next 5 days:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

  21. JpDave says:

    12Z GFS still has no interest in Invest99-L. Amazing, the ONLY model that doesn’t.
    I take that back, the FIM has no interest either. 😀

    • Vicki says:

      Thank you, Sue. Interesting video and another save to show my granddaughter. I think short videos about something currently taking place are great learning tools. Of course she may be asleep by the time I show her all that I saved!

  22. North says:

    Thanks TK.

  23. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks for posting that video Sue.
    I can’t wait to watch his videos during the winter when we have wintry threats.

  24. JpDave says:

    12Z Euro is cranking. On the 1st panel, it looks as though initialization was
    pretty reasonable. Here’s hoping for a decent run.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082512/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_1.png

  25. SAK says:

    Well, OK then…… http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2098.htm

    Remember, these people live among us.

    • JpDave says:

      Yup and at 144 hours is it weak over Northern Florida.
      TK isn’t the administrator of the blog for nothing, eh? 😀

      Let’s see if it comes out on the coast and intensifies.

      Also, who the bleep knows what it will think with the 0Z run.

    • Tom says:

      The EURO blinks :) :)

      • JpDave says:

        Did it have a bad run? OR has it pretty much given up
        the ghost?

        IF it continues this with the next run, then perhaps we can
        kiss it off.

  26. JpDave says:

    Yet, the 12Z HWRF keeps it fairly robust, not nearly as robust as the 6Z run, but
    it’s still there and menacing for the Gulf coast.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2016082512/hwrf_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    • JpDave says:

      The GFDL LOSES it completely. This is quite a battle.
      You know who will win? TK! That’s who. 😀 😀 😀

  27. JimmyJames says:

    We have seen lower pressure on Noreaster’s that have affected us than what is being depicted on the 12z EURO for Florida.

  28. JpDave says:

    UKMET keeps the Gulf theme, but rather weak.

    http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_SFC_SLP_144HR.gif

    The JMA looks almost identical to the Euro and does take it out to sea.

  29. JpDave says:

    A new idea for public access television ala Sheldon Cooper’s “Fun With Flags”.

    How about: “Fun With Models”

    Many times it would be a Comedy, while other times it would be a drama and sometimes
    it would be actually be Pathos.

    I know the perfect host! No, NOT TK or SAK.
    How about:

    Henry Margusity
    AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.

    http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2010/images/personalities/120×90/margusity.jpg

    OR perhaps:

    Al Kaprielian

    Alan “Al” Kaprielian is a meteorologist in New Hampshire. He is best known for the 20+ years he has spent at Channel 50, a broadcast television station in Derry, New Hampshire. Wikipedia
    Born: July 7, 1961 (age 55), Natick, MA
    Education: Lyndon State College

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fNaFSHvbA3o6xQE5fB3VO2ncKiz6GsH7aP0cvDdpo/yRw+f0OX1Y45PO7PjN+2LXOrv5Kqy+lraEizjkaQfB2z/AA+qzuxSxWcD4uAwy8VavJzMNLtFum7E4OLcXPVl0z1DObjWEIQqIBCEID5ojTkex/8Ad6EKS0I/dprT/akhCAVm1TiftB4IQhseY9F5JCFjSsKcUvbk8FxCXPxuHpO2f3NP4soXZ398j8fwXUKX/Ct/2i5x/wAMVHul+Krlb/DlT4ihCnxqZ+HeyH7tP31ZdlP4oo/+5+aELsnrkvjZkIQqoBCEID//2Q==

    I do hope this elicits at least a minor chuckle in someone. 😀

  30. SAK says:

    Well, since it seems to be the day for humor, I have found another site that does forecasts for the Boston area. This one is…..well…..ummm……take a look for yourself: http://weatherishappening.com/

    • JpDave says:

      Good Grief! Where do you come up with this stuff.
      If I didn’t know any better, I’d say you were the secret web administrator for
      that site. 😀

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      If you told me that site was run by a current student of our old haunt, I’d believe it. 😛

    • Vicki says:

      That is hysterical. I love the floating graphic in the BG.

  31. Vicki says:

    Seriously, why is there no game tonight? I was all set for the Thursday night game. Now I am really upset.

  32. AceMaster says:

    Totally inexcusable for the sox to lose those last 2 games of the road trip to the lowly Rays, ugh

    • JpDave says:

      I blame on the Manager, although he didn’t drop the ball last night
      or give up the home run.

      I don’t know what kind of fiasco there was today. I blame the manager.

      • Joshua says:

        I take it you’re a #NeverFarrell kind of guy. I’m sort of with you, but don’t want to let the players off the hook.

        • JpDave says:

          I never liked that guy from day #1. NEVER!
          I have a friend who played Ball all his life, played in college and coached High School and was an assistant coach
          at Boston College. He swears by Farrell.

          I think that is some sort of old school coach loyalty or something. If he really looked at it, he would see it my way. He knows I can’t stand Farrell. I played my share
          of baseball as well, unfortunately, I didn’t make the cut
          for my University team as the school was just too big and a few too many players better than I. Almost, but not quite. 😀 I played Little League, Babe Ruth league, High Shcool, CYO, Stan Musial League and Boston Park league.

    • Joshua says:

      It is too bad. But, overall they had a better road trip than I expected. They started out so well last week against good teams – Cleveland and Baltimore. Moving forward it’s a crap-shoot whether they win the division or make the playoffs. I’m skeptical on them even making the playoffs. But, they’ve surprised me in recent weeks with reasonably good baseball. It’ll be a fun month of September for baseball fans. The team’s offense is potent but tiring. Yet, their starting pitching has been coming on strong. The bullpen and the manager worry me more than anything.

      • JpDave says:

        Agree totally.
        Ultimately, the players have to execute, however, many times
        the manager places them in a position to fail.

        Seriously, it is hard to find fault with the manager last night, HOWEVER….

        He perhaps “should” have taken Porcello out
        earlier and not let him start the 8th. That was the MOST
        pitches he has ever thrown in his career. He was pitching well,
        but that was a disaster waiting to happen.

        With that bullpen, not sure what he could have done once the damage was done and the score was tied.

        btw I heard on the other station yesterday 3 host talking up
        Farrell for Manager of the year should the sox win the division.
        Now, that is a JOKE and 1/2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • MassBay says:

          I agree JF is no manager of the year.
          I simply love watching the Red position players play. I hardly worry if they make the playoffs. Ever since they won 3 titles, I have just wanted great young talent to watch. Guys who love to play. Except for Hanley, who is a very talented dolt, that is what we have.

  33. Vicki says:

    It didn’t get as warm today as I expected. It is currently 83.1 but DP is as expected at 68

    Wind is great. I have discovered that when from the SW and into the low teens it whistles by my office window. I love it.

  34. JpDave says:

    Here is a Pivotal Weather 4KM NAM sounding for 18Z tomorrow.
    This is always OVERCOOKED, but at face value it looks rather alarming:

    http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam4km_2016082518_027_42.29–71.14.png

  35. JpDave says:

    18Z NAM has joined in on the Weaker system moving around/over the Southern tip
    of Florida and then starting up the West Coast of Florida.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016082518/nam_mslp_pcpn_watl_28.png

  36. JpDave says:

    18Z 4KM NAM wants to DRENCH Boston tomorrow afternoon. Oh would that ever be nice, but I am thinking fantasyville at the moment.

    • Joshua says:

      Would be good. Maybe something pops up. My guess is there will be convection somewhere close by. Boston is bound to be hit at some point.

      Yes, I heard Dale et al. talk about the possibility of Farrell winning manager of the year. This was of course yesterday before two losses to the Rays. I must say I was not surprised to hear Dale and others praise Farrell. If there’s one gripe I have with sports radio it’s that it’s not the medium the newspaper (Globe in particular) used to be. We had fantastic writers at the Globe in the 1970s. We had great radio and TV commentators and play-by-play people. They weren’t afraid to be critical. And I don’t mean in a wholly negative sense. I mean hard-hitting reporting and analysis of the teams, their players, the front office, and management. That’s the media’s role. Same in politics. Same in international affairs. But with so many conflicts of interest in terms of ownership of media and professional clubs viewing and listening to broadcasts, as well as reading the newspaper I get an unsettling Pravda feeling. Today what I hear is mostly an uncritical take. Belichick can do no wrong. Farrell is fine. The Celtics are on the way up. Ainge has done a great job. Etc … The exception is the Bruins, but then again there’s unfortunately little interest in the Bruins these days.

    • Philip says:

      Fwiw, Bri Eggers on Ch. 7 showed a model giving Boston a widespread 0.2″ which I suppose would qualify as a “drenching” this particular year anyway. 😉

      • Philip says:

        Reply above is for JPDave.

        • Joshua says:

          0.2 inch would be a soaker indeed.

          By the way, not all is lost in terms of harvest in a drought year. Pumpkins will be massive this year. Provided they have just enough irrigation on the farm their growth is almost entirely a function of sun. And, tomatoes thrive in sun-filled summers.

          • Woods Hill Weather says:

            The 0.2 inch broadbrush is probably the GFS. I can guess that without even looking. GFS’s classic fat paint brush precipitation forecast. Almost never accurate in terms of coverage, especially in the summer.

  37. matt souza says:

    patriot fans, is Ridley worth the look??

  38. JPDave says:

    Philip, the model I saw, 18Z 4KM NAM had Boston getting
    2 inches.

  39. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Remember: The 4km is a high res model and is going to focus on putting the energy it sees into downpours that could produce copious rainfall in this situation. The obvious thing is they would be isolated, as in under 5% of the entire region seeing anything that intense. That run of the model just HAPPENS to place such a cell over Boston in its 18z simulation. And given that the city of Boston and Logan itself is probably not suffering agriculturally from the drought as much as some of the other areas in the worst zone, it won’t much matter if they get one of the heaviest downpours. Even if they did, most of it would run off if it fell in 20 minutes’ time.

  40. Woods Hill Weather says:

    The percentage chance of tropical cyclone development from 99L has been lowered to 30% in the short term. Looks for now like it will be meandering into the southern Bahamas and across southern Florida during the next few days. It may turn right up the peninsula and never emerge back over water until it exits the East Coast as a batch of showers. However, there is still some chance it makes it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Will monitor. Models continue to be useless as this is not a developed system.

  41. JPDave says:

    TK’s thoughts aside, the HWRF still wants to blow this thing up in the GULF, but
    ONLY after meandering in the Straights of Florida first as a Weakling. 😀

    Here it is at 967 mb, getting serious.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2016082518/hwrf_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    • Tom says:

      I think the weaker tropical systems are, the tendency is for them to end up further west than projected because they are steered more by the lower altitude flow, which in the tropics is more east to west.

      Just peaked at the latest spaghetti plots and it seems like they continue to shift a bit westward.

      • Tom says:

        So ….. The eastern gulfs gain could be the western gulfs headache, assuming something can hold on into the gulf and the upper level environment eventually improves.

  42. Tom says:

    Aside from the brief cool down a few days ago with that 1 chilly night, which was really nice, this August has made summer feel like it won’t transition to autumn for many weeks.

    I’m really somewhat caught off guard that it’s late August, that school starts in a handful of days. Consistently 80s and 90s most of the month and in reading TK’s forecast and watching the TV newscasts tonight, mostly very warm 80s seem in the cards throughout the next 7 days.

    I don’t know if anyone else feels that way. This has been quite a nice, warm summer and it has fealt like we’ve actually had summer weather consistently for nearly 3 months.

    • Vicki says:

      It seems we don’t move to what was back to school fall outfit weather as quickly. But I did mention this am that it seems even though warm it doesn’t have the smack you in the face wall of humidity that July summer seems to have. And it has been a glorious summer I think. Just wish…as we all do…that we’d see some rain

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      As a kid I can remember a lot of very warm Septembers and a few cool ones. Many of our first couple week of school I’d come home and it would be like summer, but probably because it actually still was summer. 😀

      • Tom says:

        We sure do need some rain Vicki and yeah, I also know what you mean about late August compared to July. I have more shade opportunities on my walk due to the longer tree shadows and at 6:30 am and pm, the sun is mostly below the taller trees to my west.

        I agree TK, many summers with warm Septembers. I think this summer has had very very few cool shots though, it’s been really consistent in its warmth and there hasn’t been any drop off even as we get into late August. I was in our school today and the halls were stuffy, so I know those mid 80s next Tues and Wednesday are going to make for some warm school days.

  43. matt souza says:

    This summer has been very nice, Its been warm and Sunny, Plenty of beach days and it looks like the beach days could continue right through fall

  44. matt souza says:

    My friend and I are trying to expand our weather blog so we have included another page on my weather blog. What do you guys think. Just like the three month outlook, this is experimental. I have already seen an increase in views but no comments besides for on facebook and a couple when I post on here. TK any idea on how to make it so people can make comments like this blog??
    https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/national-2-day-forecast/

    • bostbliz says:

      I would correct spelling mistakes and clean up the site a bit, that’s a big thing that’s probably stopping you from getting many repeat visitors other than us! The forecasts are better than the media, as usual.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      I’ll have to check the site admin menu.

  45. Woods Hill Weather says:

    The 5-day probability of 99L developing has been dropped to medium instead of high.

  46. SAK says:

    00z ECMWF takes 99L across FL as an open wave, has a very broad low move up right FL with all the moisture staying along the East Coast, and then that weak low hugs the Carolina coast before heading out to sea, while remaining a weak low.

    “Life is a series of hellos and goodbyes. I’m afraid it’s time for goodbye again.”

  47. JPDave says:

    The HWRF appears to be on an island by itself.
    It’s solution is very disconcerting to say the least. Could be disastrous for Louisiana.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016082600/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    5 Day outlook from NHC

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

  48. WxWatcher says:

    HWRF is just awful… It was a poor model for many years, but was upgraded in either 2013 or 2014, which significantly improved it. Then it was upgraded again last year, which made it even better, to the point that it was probably our best model. And then it got “upgraded” yet again this year, and the results have been near disastrous. It’s not even that good with developed storms anymore, and with undeveloped storms you can forget about it. Sad, because it really was on to something in recent years.

    • JpDave says:

      Figures. To be honest, when the GFDL wasn’t even close to it, I was suspicious.
      It used to be that although the 2 always differed somewhat, they were almost
      always in the same ball park. Not so with this system. The HWRF is out in
      Left field all by itself.

      Now onto convection for today. Did I say convection? What is that? Really?
      Will it even rain a drop in Boston? I seriously doubt it. We shall see.

  49. JpDave says:

    I previously posted the 0Z HWRF. Now the 6Z HWRF is available and it is just about the same.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016082606/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

  50. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Update soon. Had to take Mom for an early appointment today.

  51. Vicki says:

    74 even with 71 DP and completely overcast.

  52. matt souza says:

    Looks like dew points will be in the 50s this weekend and will go back up into the 60s for the first half of next week. Then some cooler and drier air comes in from canada Thursdayish

  53. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!

    Heading to Water Country for the day. Will we have to dodge a shower? We’ll see. Gonna get wet anyway. 😉

    Today is Nate’s 17th birthday. :)