Saturday Forecast

87 Comments

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)…
Around here in southern New England it’s a simple pattern. High pressure continues to be in control most of the time and our rain chances will be limited to isolated showers and thunderstorms from passing fronts early Monday and sometime Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-80 shoreline, 80-86 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-68, warmest in urban areas. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-80 shoreline, 80-86 interior. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Isolated showers/thunderstorms overnight. More humid. Lows 62-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 80-88, cooler Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90, cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
High pressure will be in control for the first several days of September, continuing the dry pattern. The first couple days will feature cooler/drier air before a return-flow of air from the southwest brings back the feel of summer during the Labor Day weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)…
No indication of a significant break in the dry and overall warm pattern.

87 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. The latest 6Z HWRF still insists on Invest99-L developing into a hurricane.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2016082706/hwrf_mslp_wind_99L_33.png

    CMC as well, only much farther West and not as strong.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016082700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png

    And so does the UKMET

    http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_SFC_SLP_144HR.gif

    The NHC has reduced the 5 day chance of tropical development for invest99-L
    to only 40% now.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

    Latest Color Loop. Actually looking more healthy.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

    1. That is what I thought were advertised (not saying by TK) but I saw that somewhere.

      DP fluctuating here between 61 and 62. Better, but NOT best.

    2. It may dip to the upper 50s but generally it hangs around 60 this weekend. Fairly seasonable for late summer.

      1. Thank you. Either way it is a glorious day

        But bugs…..does anyone have tiny black bugs around Windows? I just went onto deck and they are everywhere. Some alive. Most not

    2. Kind of goes along with the thinking I’ve and others have had.

      But sorta of opposite to CPC’s persistent above normal precipitation forecasts. Wonder why…

    1. Could simply be day time flare up of thunderstorm activity, OR it could mean
      it is beginning to get it’s act together. Probably the former. 😀

    1. A warm 82F NE breeze. 🙂 🙂 …….. Maybe that will be a nice, very cool airmass Friday.

      But, the EURO has +18c to +20c at 850mb knocking at the door only a few days later.

      2. The heat’s gonna come back rather quickly after a quick cool shot to start the new month.

    1. Then popped right back up to 60. New it was too good to be true. Just normal
      daily fluctuation, I guess.

      3. Closest Wunder station says 65 DP but one not too far says 58 and others in lower 60s. I cannot remember how to find blackstones station

  12. Barry has for Thursday a showery day with temps only near 70. Is this an actual all-day rain TK? Will next weekend be much cooler than normal? I got that impression from Barry as well.

    2. I get the impression that we’ll have a quick front whistling through here on Wednesday then cooler/drier for a couple days before we go into a warming trend for the long weekend.

  13. Hi Everyone-

    A few of you may remember me? Anyway, I am back home. Officially out of the meteorology world as far as forecasting is concerned. Other than teaching an introductory course for the 5 college consortium and maintaining the Amherst College Weather Station, I have no responsibilities in the weather world. (The world breaks out in applause because there is one less bad forecast out there.) I have a partnership in a totally unrelated manufacturing business and I actually lived in the UK for the last year with many trips back and forth. I am back home. My kids are ready to start school this week, the weather is warm and dry, (September will be even warmer and drier…) and I just may drop by the blog and offer my unsolicited opinions…I see some new names, some old favorites, and maybe one or two other who are not here, that I might not miss….

    Nice to read all your thoughts and yes I did read some while I was gone…TK remains the best there is.

    2. JMA – thank you for touching base. Always nice to see your name. I am glad life is treating you well. Sure sounds as if you have been busy. Please keep on stopping by…winter and maybe snow will be here soon enough!

    6. Hi! You may be “out of the weather world” but you always have an open door here to share your expertise. It’s valued. And thanks for the great compliment. 🙂

  14. Boy, TK, SAK, and JMA all in one place… WHW has become a forecasting powerhouse!

    As for me, today is my last day in Wrentham for the summer. Heading back to Plymouth State tomorrow to start my junior year. Time flies! I’ll be around, however… After all, meteorological winter is just over 3 months away 😉

  17. Currently most dps are just on either side of 60 unfortunately. There are only a precious few locations at or near 55.

      1. Your station is definitely WAY off Vicki. The highest dp currently is at 61 and most locations are between 55-60.

        1. It now says DP is 69. I checked two other wunders around me. Both have 58 DP which is what it feels like but one had 91 temp and my own station has 85.

  19. I know it’s fun to look at, and I agree with that fun aspect too. But from a meteorological standpoint, don’t pay too much attention to the last few days of today’s 12z GFS run.

  20. An entertaining 12z Euro run today… not so much for us, but in the tropics, yikes. 99L is really becoming a saga, and we’re probably going to do it all over again with the next wave to come off Africa in a couple days.

  21. Piggybacking on a comment from last week or so that the sun felt hotter this summer, I am curious to know if someone/agency keeps track of the percentage of sunshine per day. Because of our extremely dry conditions, there has been all sunny or mostly sunny conditions all summer day after day with very few clouds. That was evident this morning on a walk. The sun was bearing down on me even at a lower angle.

    Is percentage of daily sunshine a meteorological stat?
    88.2 on the Westside of Taunton.

    1. Yes. For one, Blue Hill Observatory keeps track of % of sunshine on a daily basis.

      By the way I do have a theory for the sun “feeling hotter”, and this is it:
      In recent years, stricter control on emissions has reduced the amount of haze, some of which used to partially block summer sun. That in theory means that we have less impeded rays coming to the surface that probably would feel hotter to the average person.

      1. That’s a good thing, right?
        I will head to the BHO website when I have some time.
        Thanks, TK…Just what I was looking for.

      3. Very interesting theory TK. Hopefully the sun itself isn’t getting any hotter. As hot as it has been this summer, 1988 at least IMHO was much worse.

  22. I was just in the ocean here at the beach here in southern RI. Water temp at Block Island 76.3°. Full sun this summer really warmed the ocean,awesome day.

  24. I have nothing to back this up, but it seems to me that the number of air quality alert days in this and last summer (and recent summers) have been down.

    Excellent theory, TK…

    1. They have. Part of this is due to better care. This has been a long process. Not sure if folks have noticed that HHH is now becoming HH more often. We still get the hazy days but they are less frequent. You have to stagnate the air a lot longer under a surface high and a westward extension of a Bermuda High. We have not actually had that setup much the last few summers, including this one despite it being hotter. A lot of our hot air was “over the top” or straight from the upper Plains via the Great Lakes, instead of Gulf of Mexico air that traveled through the more-polluted midwest and picked up particles for haze along the way.

  25. Even if 99L finally gets into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it looks like some upper level low pressure there may give it trouble developing.

    Tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones do not like upper level low pressure one bit.

  26. Re the dew point this afternoon out mine and Vicki’s way.

    It was indeed close to 70. I hit 68 around 2:30. I’m still at 66.4 at 6:25 pm.
    Phillip, the dew points and temps out here on Rt 146 can be much different than Boston.

    1. Thank you Blackstone. It didn’t feel that high late pm but did the rest of the day. Guess I can trust my close site again. Good news!!

    1. Ahhhh. I have no pool :). And once I csn have windows open everything feels perfect to me :). Odd how all other Wunder stations in my area had it lower.

    1. I like the areas differentiated. That way I can focus on my area but check out others if I want. Will people reading be interested in just this area or is it supposed to be national

  33. New post. The short forecasts continue, basically because there is not a whole lot of weather likely going on in this area during the next 15 days.

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