Wednesday Forecast

90 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)…
The next 5 days will feature high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of New England with a generally east to northeast flow, lots of clouds, and occasional damp weather. Will we see any beneficial rain? Best chance comes Friday/Saturday as an upper low from the southwest tries to lift into the region while weakening.
THROUGH THURSDAY: Mainly overcast. Occasional drizzle. A few periods of very light to light rain possible. Temperatures generally holding in the 56-66 range. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH occasionally gusting over 20 MPH.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 52-58. Highs 58-66.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Lows 53-59. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
Improving weather October 3-5 pending the departure of the low pressure area to the south. Watching for possible rain, directly or indirectly related to a tropical system later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
Fair and cooler early in the period, followed by a warming trend.

90 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Models keep advertising a tropical event in one form or another. Getting more consistent with timing and placement. Still plenty of time for things to change.

  4. Window of opportunity for rain remains open…

    Target dates for possible tropical cyclones impact remain Oct 6-7.

  6. Will be interesting to see how things pan out. TK must say the accuracy to which you have been pinpointing patterns; both short term and long term, has been remarkable.

  8. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

    Looking at the teleconnections make me a bit nervous about this tropical feature.

    The AO is about to crash. Associated with a negative AO is a meridional pattern (highly amplified jet stream)

    The NAO is not forecast to be positive, but either neutral or slightly negative. I think this might signal towards potential for slight blocking to our northeast of at least a somewhat blocked up western Atlantic.

    PNA neutral to slightly negative. This for the first week of October for all 3 teleconnections.

    1. And that slightly negative PNA makes me think there would be a trof near the west coast, a ridge in the inter mountain west or western Great Plains, a trof in the eastern Great Lakes or the east coast and a ridge in the western Atlantic.

  11. Still WAY too early to make any definitive calls on Matthew’s eventual future. The spread among the Ensembles is among the biggest I’ve ever seen.

    1. Agree. I do think however that the upper pattern best supports an up-the-coast run Oct 6-7 versus before or after, if the timing is just so…

  13. I don’t recall too many tropical systems having a minimum pressure of 1008 mb translating to 60 mph winds. Based on what the recon plane found, I believe both, but I just don’t recall a correspondence as such occurring too often. Seems to me a 1008 mb tropical system, more often than not, has lower observed winds.

      1. Channel 5 is owned by Hearst, I just noticed on TWC’s website that they are “An IBM Business.” Maybe they were sold?

    3. On the Storm HQ Facebook page, I did a quick post, and included this line:

      “Suffice to say that using the Model Ensembles, landfall is possible anywhere from Central America to Newfoundland, unless it goes out to sea.”

  17. I love looking at the 500 mb maps and seeing the features and how they interact.

    If the GFS is correct, there is currently a trof, oriented NE to SW off the coast of Alaska.

    It, over the next several days, is projected to slowly move eastward, first into the western U.S. and then towards the Great Lakes. All the while, it has multiple disturbances rotating around it.

    This trof will be one of the key players affecting Matthew’s path.

    It’s something that I’m curious to see how the EURO handles today on its 12z run.

  18. Some slight differences showing up btwn hr 120 of yesterday’s 12z EURO (24 hrs ago) and today’s hr 96 EURO.

    System perhaps up to 100 miles further east on today’s 12z run so far. Same exact latitude for both. West coast trof looks a little stronger on today’s run.

    Going to guess EURO will look a bit more like GFS at the end of this run.

  20. GFS Ensemble mean for is a track right over Nantucket.

    The GFS Ensemble has been extraordinarily consistent with its handling of this system, especially considering how far out the forecast still is. Lends a bit more confidence to the forecast for me.

    1. its the gfs thought, its the start of us getting use to it being better just to screw it up come winter 😉

  22. The 12z ECWMF is just bizarre. It develops a closed low south of New England next week out of nowhere. As for Matthew, it’s stronger and much farther east, but the trough coming into the Midwest isn’t that strong, so it stalls Matthew out in the Bahamas as the ridge builds back in to the north.

  23. To have football practice or not, that is the question. We have a steady drizzle down here and it is just plain miserable. Any chance of heavier stuff or should we just suck it up and deal with the drizzle?

        1. Field should be ok. Had we been under steady moderate to heavy rain it would be a different story. Fair chance the drizzle subsides at times as well.

  24. TK – What are your thoughts regarding Accuweather’s winter 2016-17 outlook regarding snowfall? It seems almost every year they predict above average even when conditions are not really favorable.

    1. Given the factors that must be taken into account before attempting a snowfall forecast, I’d say it’s too early for a solid outlook, unless they planned on ignoring the potential relationship between Siberian snow in mid autumn and its possible impact on winter in this area.

      If you predict above normal snow every year, you’ll get it right periodically.

  25. We’ll have a new reader here soon and he’ll likely be adding his thoughts to the discussion, so with that in mind I’m going to once again remind any lurkers out there that you are free to comment any time you wish! You don’t need be a meteorologist to add your thoughts and ask your questions! I want people to learn here. 🙂

    If you have not commented before, you will need to be approved if you add a comment the first time, and then can post freely provided you use the same email / username. Any time you change it, you’d need to be re-approved. Hope to hear from more of you soon! And tell your friends and family about the blog too. 🙂

  27. I have this awful feeling that by this time next week, we will be dealing with the very real possibility of a strong tropical system close by.

    1. Oddly I have that feeling also which is unusual for me since I just figure what happens will happen. And my feeling is based on nothing…just a feeling I hooked on 😉

  29. In 165 years of records, 5 systems have made landfall in New England after October 1, only 2 of which were hurricanes.

    10/19/1851 – 50 knot tropical storm makes landfall over Block Island before dissipating over Rhode Island.
    11/3/1861 – 60 knot tropical storm crosses eastern Long Island before moving into southwestern Rhode Island.
    10/4/1869 – 90 knot hurricane crosses Martha’s Vineyard and then central Cape Cod before moving into the Gulf of Maine and making a 3rd landfall near Brunswick, Maine.
    10/10/1894 – 75 knot hurricane crosses central Long Island before making landfall in eastern Connecticut.
    10/19/1923 – 50 knot tropical storm crosses Martha’s Vineyard before making a second landfall near Falmouth, then heads NNW just west of Boston and into central New Hampshire.

    So, history is definitely against us here.

    Back to the current storm, recon just found a pressure of 1005 mb, surface winds of 54 knots, and flight-level winds of 73 knots.

  30. I’m not putting any stock in what the guidance is saying now . Let’s see if it holds doubt it that’s my feeling . Just keep raining Monday through Friday and keep it dry for my weekend business .

  31. Don’t know what EURO is doing. This is the first run it showed that weird trough feature, but previous runs also had the storm in a similar position, without the trough.

  33. What a dismal, raw and nasty 7 days. Not much sun and very little rain to show for it. 🙁 I could do without it.

    1. I love this weather. It makes me feel warm inside while it is cool all around. Yep, maybe I’m a one off……or perhaps there are two of us 🙂

        1. It’s depressing.
          That reminds me actually. Time to refill my Lexapro. The next 6 months I usually go through Lexapro and Zoloft like M&Ms

            1. The drugs help keep me sane during the winter 🙂 without them I’m a mess and can’t get out of bed some days and face the cold and dark.

              1. Sorry to hear that Blackstone. We sure are all made differently and I think that is a good thing. But I hate to see you and Mrs OS struggle

    1. Happy for that! Had the O’s not beat the Jays, I think my head would’ve exploded watching Kimbrel throw 30 pitches and not get an out.

  35. FWIW, the GFS ensembles pretty much have a bullseye on SNE. They show it coming up right in TK’s “best chance” window of Oct 6-7, which I agree is the most likely time frame for Matthew to make a move this way. Still way too early to know with any confidence what happens beyond the Caribbean. Lots can and probably will change.

    It’s already a dangerous storm though. Sustained winds of 65mph, with a gust to 89mph reported on Martinique.

  36. 00z GFS at 162 hrs.

    Central US trof looks a bit deeper, Atlantic ridge a bit stronger.

    Projected track running perhaps 50 – 100 miles west of 12z run thus far

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