Thursday Forecast

130 Comments

2:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
The pattern has set up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, and this will continue through this period. But some drier air will work down from the north today and erode the cloudiness to allow some sunshine, especially north and west of Boston, and possibly right into the city and the immediate southern suburbs as well. Cloudiness will re-take these areas during tonight and Friday, and eventually by Friday night into Saturday the rain chance will increase as an upper low to the southwest gets closer while weakening. Rain chances should go down though clouds will probably continue to dominate Sunday before some clearing take place Monday (uncertain).
TODAY: Clouds break for sun north and west of Boston and into immediate Boston area. Clouds persist to the south and east with sprinkles/drizzle at times. Highs 58-67, coolest under the thickest cloud cover and mildest in interior southern NH. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior and 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty mist/sprinkles mainly southeastern MA. Lows 52-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty mist/sprinkles especially coastal areas. Periods of rain in the afternoon mainly South Coast region. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 52-58. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers/drizzle. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Improving and milder weather October 4-5. We have not mentioned Matthew yet, mainly because it has no bearing on the first several days of the forecast period. The system will move westward through the Caribbean and likely strengthen from tropical storm to hurricane, before turning northward across Cuba and to a position near or east of the Bahamas. For a few days the idea has been that if the system was to impact this area it would most likely occur around October 6-7. This is still the case, but please know that there remain a wide range of possibilities with this system, from its strength, to its status of tropical versus post-tropical, and its eventual track. So for now we’ll leave it at a risk of rain/wind for a portion of the region during the October 6-7 time frame. Dry, windy, cooler weather would follow the passage of the system, hit or miss.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
Drier regime becomes re-established with fair and milder weather expected early through mid period then a few rain showers possible later in the period.

130 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. New Euro still makes no sense to me. GFS while offshore, has been fairly consistent, and has support from its Ensembles, which have also been consistent.

    1. I agree.

      By the way I had to approve this too. The “y” is still missing in your email address so the messages keep going to moderation.

  5. Thanks TK !

    A bit of the drier air has made it all the way to the coastline south of Boston as we have a bit of sunshine and plenty of breaks of blue sky.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Mobile stuck at car dealership for service.

    Gfs would give us about 2 inches of rain fromMatthew, while cmc would be 8-12 inches of rain. I wouldn’t touch the cmc solution right now. Need more time.
    We shall see.

  12. An ideal track for Matthew would zoom it due north passing over the outer banks of NC then continuing northward toward the NE South Coast, then at the last second turning east-nortneast passing just south and east of Nantucket. This track would bring rain aplenty to SNE with hopefully minimal wind damage. Of course many already weakened drought stricken trees would be vulnerable. This would no doubt put a big dent into this long term drought to say the least. Pure fantasy on my part I suppose.

    1. I concur, however, we rarely get what we want or what is ideal. Your scentric is like the cmc. Gfs seems more likely, but there is so much time on this. Virtually anything is on the table

  13. I go nuts in between model runs. Wish they all were initiated and run hourly.
    Like I said, we don’t get what we want.

  14. Matthew’s center of circulation is becoming separated from the thunderstorms. Definite wind shear from the southwest.

    Wonder if this might send the center further west than the models project ?

      1. Son did plug machine thing yesterday. He is seeding today. That’s all I know. Sorry I don’t have more details. We will use nematodes in the spring for the grubs.

  17. Thanks TK. One thing to note for the latter end of next week is that the tides are astronomically lower and aren’t extremely high until mid-month.

  18. Matthew now at 70 mph with additional strengthening expect, despite some SW shear.
    Shear is expected to subside later.

  20. Regardless of the eventual destination of Matthew, I hope weather historians will always remember the storm for its clear “L” track. I find the sharp right turn due north quite fascinating. Hopefully no repeat of 1938 which would not only bring much damage to the South Coast, but would do little for the drought in eastern NE.

  21. 12z GFS scrapes the Outer Banks than has Matthew make landfall as a tropical storm in Central Long Island before crossing into Connecticut next Friday.

  22. Of course the 12z GFS would come in much further when the trend itch everything else had seemed somewhat further eastward.

  24. It’s suffering quite a bit from wind shear, but per recon observations, Matthew is a hurricane and should be upgraded at 2PM.

  25. Am I seeing a pattern with the GFS? 6Z and 18Z runs take it off shore and 12Z and 0Z runs bring it hugging the coast? We used to see this with Winter storms all of the time.

    Perhaps I am just looking for something that is not there????

    In any case, 12Z GFS brings us about 5 inches of rains with no all that much in the
    way of wind. I’d happily take that, but there is just too far to go. One thing I can say and that is that the GFS has been remarkably consistent with this system.

    We shall see.

    1. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/291736.shtml

      Now the models “should” have a little bit better handle on things or we hope
      they will.

      How strong does matthew get? Official discussion is not out yet. Previous discussion has it getting to 100 mph before crossing Cuba and dropping down
      a bit. That would be a Cat 2.

      I saw some projections of it getting to a Cat 3.

      Some of the intensity models show a Cat 4, but Most are in the Cat 2 range.

  27. Trying to pick out details from what effects we may or may not get here from Matthew is a waste of time right now. It’s still a week away. All I’m looking for right now is consistency, and I’m getting that from the GFS and GFS Ensemble. Yes, the details change a bit with every run, the, the general idea has been the same nearly every time. A track up the East Coast at the end of next week. compare that to the ECMWF and its Ensembles, that have a huge spread and vary wildly from run-to-run.

    In the forecasts I send out every night, I have not mentioned Matthew at all yet, except for the radio stations we provided forecasts for in the Virgin Islands and Jamaica. Since it’s now a week or so away if the GFS is right, I will have to start mentioning it in my forecasts for clients in the Northeast tonight. I can pretty much tell you right now what I’ll be saying too:

    “Towards the end of next week, we’ll have to keep an eye on the progress of Hurricane Matthew. There are some indications that it may try and move up the East Coast and could impact our region. There is still considerable uncertainty in the future track of this system, so we’ll need to keep a close eye on it”

    To say anything more than that would be irresponsible on my part, especially since the company’s slogan is “Accurate forecasts without all the hype!”

  28. Its hard to tell on Instant Weather Maps, so I could be in error ….

    But, I believe the GFS hr 6 (1 pm today) predicted pressure on its 12z run for Matthew is 1004 mb. Of course, the recon plane is at 993 mb.

    The EURO hr 0 (7am today) predicted pressure on its 12z run for Matthew is 1,000 mb, which earlier this morning, seemed to be not too far off.

    So, at least on intensity projections, I’m more inclined to follow the EURO.

      1. Yes. Toss the CMC and the Euro appears to be whacked some.
        last night’s Euro had it at 927MB at hour 240.

        That’s higher than all of the other models.

        12Z Euro out within the hour.

            1. Lol !!!!! Yeah, exactly. I don’t know why I call them quizzes 🙂

              It’s on integers, rational numbers and coordinate plane graphing. Another unit that I often tie in with the weather.

              2. I may have to reach out to you Tom when I am pulling my hair out helping my 5th grade son with his math homework. It has been a LONG time since I did that math!

              3. irrational number are more fun. I like Pi and I also like pie.

                Then imaginary numbers are even more fun.

                And complex numbers as well.

              4. a teacher that calls a 2 page quiz a quiz… Oh god you are one of those. :P. How big is your test 5 pages? 😛

  31. Looking at the Euro, both surface and 500MB chart, it appears to be that the 12Z Euro
    is coming more in line with the GFS.

    I will check the 300MB chart shortly, but to me it is poised to come up
    the East coast. Timing is a bit delayed from the GFS, bit still appears to be there.

    We shall see.

    1. About 500 miles due South of the GFS position for the same time.
      This “may” allow it to recurve OTS later. Will have to watch.

  32. I wonder if it’s this simple …..

    Compare 500mb chart for the hr 180 12z GFS vs the hr 192 12z EURO.

    Check out the differences in how each model handle the central US trof and Atlantic ridge. I suppose at this point, the question becomes which one looks more reasonable/believable ?

    2. Yes, but the point I was making was that this run of the Euro MORE closely
      resembles the GFS than any previous runs of the Euro re: Matthew. Still different to be sure, but trending rapidly towards the GFS. 😀

  34. Euro Surface 12Z , Oct 9

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_11.png

    500mb

    http://imgur.com/a/Pqjha

    300mb

    http://imgur.com/a/vJwq3

    Awfully close and there is so much more time on this as well.

    It surely looks like our pal Matthew wants to make a visit to this latitude, the only question is: at which longitude will he be when he crosses our latitude. Right now
    it looks like it could be from West of us, like as far West as the Hudson Valley to East of us by 100-300 miles OR anything in between. It will be fun to watch. That’s a cone of uncertainty of about 500 miles or so. A lot of real estate within that cone. Could even end up farther East than that. It also could be a direct hit as well. (not necessarily a hurricane at that point as the waters are cooling off. Current SST off of Boston sits at: 61.5 Surface temp 75 NM East of Long Beach, NJ is at 68.9)

    I sincerely hope that it least comes close enough to throw some beneficial rain
    into our area. Would that be too much to ask?

  35. Thank you, TK, as always.

    Haven’t been posting recently. Going through a rough patch, but brighter days lie ahead. Well, not if we use the word “bright” in its literal sense, given the weather we’re having. This stretch of weather reminds me of my time in England and Holland. Septembers were like this. Nothing much happened. Lots of gray skies and occasional mist, drizzle, or light rain. The real rain and wind didn’t come until October. Looks like the real rain and wind may not happen here until the first week of October with the arrival of Matthew.

  37. I echo SAK’s comment above regarding the approach to be taken when looking ahead at this system (and others like it). No need to repeat.

    Yes it’s lots of fun to look at models and imagine the various scenarios. If you only knew how many notebook pages I filled with fantasy weather maps in all my school years, you’d wonder how I graduated ranked #67 out of 500 kids. 😉

    I think by the time I was done, our average snowfall for a winter season was somewhere around 320 inches. Oops!

    1. 😀 😀 😀

      I used to get weather maps from the US Government printing office.
      I was in heaven when one of those maps would arrive.

      When you have the weather bug, you HAVE it! And we’re oh so happy you have it.

      May I put you on the spot. I know we’re sitting at 9/28 and Matthew won’t arrive here (IF it arrives) until on or about 10/7 or later, however, how about
      your earliest guess as to where He goes. We wilL NOT NOT NOT hold you to
      anything you say 8+ days out. 😀 Many thanks

      I mean you have a gut sense like OTS, a near brush or gazing, an inland track or whatever.

      Thanks again.

      1. My half science and half intuition guess is this:
        Matthew stays offshore of the US East Coast, weakens to a tropical storm, then loses tropical characteristics while passing southeast of Nantucket on October 7.

        1. Fair enough and thank you.

          How much rain for Boston under that scenario?

          An inch or 2 or perhaps even less?

          Tx

      2. Dave, my father and I used to find printed tracking maps, plot the course and then talk a couple of times a day to see what we thought. I do miss those days.

        1. Never had that experience. I was totally and completely
          on my own when it came to the weather stuff.

          However, my parents did get my my first weather station
          and it was a LIONEL Weather stations as in the Electric
          trains Lionel.

          Some info:

          Beginning in the 1960s Lionel attempted to further diversify into other product lines, such as phonographs, science, weather station and plastics engineering kits while toy train sales continued to decline and with the company enduring a series of management turnovers.

          I remember it well. The wind vane and anemometer were plastic and red in color. The display for the wind
          had the compass points with red light bulbs that would
          light when the wind was at that particular compass point. If in between, 2 bulbs would light.

          I was probably fairly young, because when the battery went out, I hooked up a Big lattern battery and Blew Out ALL of the bulbs. 😀

          1. I love that story. Thank you. A friend and I built a weather station for a sixth grade science fair. She was the brains but I loved doing it. I used to,have a little notebook where I wrote observations though

  39. Thanks for the comments, WHW folks. I appreciate it.

    And yes, playoff baseball is around the corner. If Price can deliver in the post-season and Kimbrel throws strikes (both are somewhat iffy at this time), the Sox will be a legitimate championship contender.

    Some of you may be interested in seeing a short video of the Northern lights over Reykjavik, Iceland:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-37506571

    1. If Farrell wins manager of the year I am going to vomit all over the place!!!!!!!

      If the sox win this thing, it will be IN SPITE of the manager.

      My biggest fear is that he will royally screw up the late innings of
      a play off and/or world series close game!!!

    3. I enjoyed the video of the northern lights. Even though the timing didn’t work as planned, I love that they turned lights out so people could enjoy

  41. Tweets from Ryan Hanrahan
    GFS Ensembles menace the east coast with #Matthew next week (majority out to sea) but Euro with a much different setup. Lots of uncertainty.

    European Ensembles are all over the place with #Matthew in the Caribbean. Way different than the GFS.

    1. Tell me about it! The article I posted above has a graphic of all the individual Euro ensemble tracks. Mexico to southeast of Bermuda!

  42. Some twitter chatter between Meteorologists Ryan Hanrahan and Ed Vallee
    Ed Vallee
    Despite west trend, only 8 members (out of 21) make landfall in US. 7 in Carolinas, 1 in New England. Most members well offshore. #Matthew

    Ryan Hanrahan
    GEFS appear to have trended east quite a bit to me over last 3 cycles.

    Ed Vallee
    Offshore fits climo a bit better IMO.

    Ryan Hanrahan
    Definitely. Downstream ridging obviously important but really need digging s/w, cut-off to allow for phase/capture.

  43. Speaking of ensembles, here are the latest from the 12Z GFS

    180 hours

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=180

    192 hours

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=192

    204 hours

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=204

  44. Euro ensembles having such a spread is a MAJOR red flag to me. The GFS’s consistency in the general track is a key. The # of ensemble members keeping the system offshore is significant, even this far out. But still, way too early to make any calls about next week. These are things the forecast will keep in mind and watch for trends.

  45. Gulf of Mexico looks to be out of play.
    East coast needs to watch this. Hopefully we just get a beneficial rainfall and it takes a Noreaster track near 40N 70W.

  47. It’s almost 6:00 and it’s already getting dark. Summer is over – enjoying the cooler weather but I kind of miss the longer days.

  49. I’m starting to get my first inclinations of what will happen with Matthew once it’s north of the Caribbean. Still plenty of uncertainty of course. JJ posted some great and very accurate Twitter chatter earlier. It looks increasingly likely that this thing will hook right off the East Coast. From what I’m seeing, it’s more likely than not it hooks soon enough, fast enough, to miss SNE altogether. However, the short term forecast has been shifting west; if it goes far enough west in the Caribbean, it may not be able to clear the Carolinas on its way out.

  50. 440ppm carbon at a point of no return especially if we do not do anything drastic and now. We were warned and we will see increased health issues, increasing temperatures and its all due to humans. I do not by the crappy excuse of we do not have enough data and those who think its a hoax. I might sound combative and sorry if I sound like that but honestly I do not care there is enough scientific evidence.

  51. Is the 18Z GFS the real deal or just another shitty 18Z run?

    We shall see.

    An OTS solution would not surprise me in the slightest. Time will tell.
    If the 0Z does the same, then I am in.

  52. 18z GFS Ensemble trends NW, mean goes right across Nantucket. Nearly half of the members have landfall anywhere from NC to New England.

    1. Do you think it was a good run? Are you saying Not so fast with the right hook?

      Is this more of the 6Z and 18A take it Off shore, while the 12Z and 0Z bring it back close to the coast?

      Thanks

      1. As I mentioned earlier, I’m not paying too much attention to the details at this point. I’m looking for consistency and trends. The GFS Ensemble has been very consistent, and the 18z run is no different. For several days now, it has been insisting on a track up the coast. Just because the OP run made a big change doesn’t not mean a thing.

  53. If you want to analyze the 18z operational regarding the OTS, the thing that jumps out is that this particular run “decides” that the trough in the Midwest / Mississippi Valley is deep enough to induce a slightly more amplified, though small, high pressure ridge ahead of it. Although it is small in size it is enough (on the model run) to kick Matthew more eastward than allowing it to come northward in the more southerly mid and upper flow ahead of the Midwest trough. There is a fair chance that the 00z run does not show this scenario quite the same. And we’ll play this game for a while yet…

  55. 0z GFS has Matthew making a run towards the Outer Banks but then makes a right hook and heads way out to sea. GFS is much slower bringing the hurricane north out of the central Caribbean on this run.

    1. And the Ensemble is still WELL NW of the Op run, but a little farther SE than the 18z run. The mean has the center pass about 100 miles SE of Nantucket.

      So far, the 00z ECMWF is a little faster and farther west then the previous run.

  56. I think we are now seeing a very clear OTS signal. Could it still change? yup.
    But it is surely looking more and more like an ots scenario.

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