Monday Forecast

54 Comments

1:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
As the cold air flowed in behind a departing storm system Sunday evening, patches of light snow, even moderate in some areas, put down a small accumulation, mostly on surfaces like cars, stairs, and decks. Be advised that some of these surfaces may be slippery in the early morning before the snow/ice basically evaporates in very dry air and wind before it even has a chance to melt. The storm system heading into eastern Canada will continue to intensify and the tight pressure gradient around it will continue to cause very windy conditions today, along with cold air. This will slowly begin to relax on Tuesday though it will still be a windy and chilly day, but with more sun than day. The breeze hangs on into Wednesday then diminishes as high pressure slides over the region from the west. For Thanksgiving on Thursday, low pressure will be approaching from the west, but I think support for the system will be diminishing as it moves in, so it’ll be in fall-apart mode as it arrives. Look for maybe some spotty light snow first thing Thursday morning, then maybe enough breaks and thinning in the clouds for a little sun before clouds take over again and bring the chance of afternoon rain showers. At this point, Black Friday looks a little unsettled, but odds will favor any precipitation to be rain instead of snow.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 24-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-27 except 28-33 closer to coast and urban areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny then some clouds late. Highs 40-47. NW 10-20 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with spotty light snow possible northern MA and southern NH early. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers favoring southern MA, CT, and RI. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-47.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mainly cloudy with a risk of rain afternoon. Lows 30-37. Highs 43-50.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
The pattern will be somewhat active down the home stretch of November. Low pressure areas are likely to affect the region about every other day. Odds favor rain over snow but needs to be watched.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
December arrives with much the same pattern that ends November. Variable temperatures and a couple low pressure areas moving along the Pacific jet stream. May be enough cold air around to have mix or snow involved for parts of the region from a system within the first few days of the new month.

54 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Thanks TK
    One inch of snow on the ground. The big winners in CT were elevations about 1,000 feet where double digit snowfall totals occurred.

  8. Good morning and Thank you TK not only for the Monday update, but also for
    the time and effort you put forth for the Winter Forecast.

    Scrapped snow from the car this morning. All surfaces except the pavements were
    snow covered this morning with a coating. Nice to see. Now when do we see it again?
    Next Winter probably. 😀

  11. Even the Euro is struggling with events out 6-10 days. It changes every single run.
    No consistency whatsoever. Until such time as we see some consistency, I assume
    we’ll stay in limbo regarding any sustained cold. 😀

  12. Looking at the 12Z GFS and CMC, I see TOO MANY Lakes Cutters.
    I hope it is NOT a sign of the Winter to Come. I can’t stand Lakes Cutters! They
    make my blood boil! ALL storms should be forever banned from tracking through
    the Lakes. FOREVER!

  13. I believe today’s 00z and 12z GFS have a nice visual of the big picture pattern of the upcoming winter.

    An active Pacific Jet with many disturbances crossing the country. Some end up being weak ….. Thanksgiving Day and a followup a day or 2 later. Some end up being stronger.
    Most approaching us up through the Ohio Valley with hints at coastal redevelopment.

    Fear not JpDave and others 🙂 🙂 As the months move into January and February and the cold really builds in Canada, these systems will have plenty of snow/frozen, even in southern New England.

  14. If we could get some secondary redevelopment a bit further south instead of north of the area we could have more systems with wintery weather, but this is typical of a strong pacific flow. Storm travels across the country. weakening as it does, travels to the north with redevelopment to the north of the region.

    1. I agree. ……. I think in January and February, that further south coastal redevelopment will happen more than it currently is because the sharp temperature gradient will be set up further south. There’s nothing in eastern Canada currently on a large scale to have a big temp gradient set up just to out south. Currently, the big temp gradients are over northern New England or even further north in Canada itself, which I think is fairly usual in mid to late November.

  15. Well, I was DEAD wrong about temperatures overachieving today.
    If anything, they underachieved. Pretty chilly out there. At this hour,
    my car thermometer was reading 38.

  17. And while none of us were paying attention, Tropical Storm Otto has formed in the Western Caribbean. It looks look it could become a hurricane before hitting Nicaragua or Costa Rica later this week.

    1. True, we weren’t looking. However, someone here alerted all of us several days ago that it could, indeed, happen. Pretty late in the season to be sure, but
      the season goes to 12/1 for a reason. 😀

  18. Some snow totals from the storm yesterday and today in NW CT, western MA, eastern NY and southern VT.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=aly&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

    Over a foot in NW CT, Lenox was the jackpot for MA with 17″, 24″ in Rensselaer Co. NY, and 26″ in Woodford VT. And the storm isn’t done yet…

    And some totals from NWS Burlington for northern NY and VT:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=PNS&issuedby=BTV

    1. Thank you Mark for posting that. Some pretty impressive early season
      numbers in some locations.

      How did you do? Did you pick up any kind of accumulation at all? Or just the coating most of us received? Tx

      1. Zilch. Just some flakes – didn’t even really get a coating which is ironic since there were a slew of icy roads, road closures, and accidents across CT this AM. Not only in the western part of the state, but also in Middletown (on the CT river) and down in Groton on the shore. The snow shadow got me. Hopefully not a sign of things to come this winter.

  21. Will the snow pack to the west of us now help keep air masses a bit cooler in the northeast or just locally? Any good snow cover in Canada from this storm?

    1. Yes, good snows in Canada from this past event.
      A nice dump in Vt, berks and Upstate NY.
      It can’t hurt. How much it helps is debatable.

  23. Have my winter Predictions ready to just click the button, but im gonna way till Black Friday, beccause every year I do it before we get almost no snow. So I’m gonna wait 😛

  25. Both the 12KM and 4KM 18Z NAM showing a decent slug of Snow for our area
    on Thanksgiving day, while the regular 32KM NAM doesn’t show much at all other
    than a few light snow showers. In any case, the NAMS are NOT showing any accumulation to speak of. Looks like IF this were to verify, it would be a case of it snowing but not accumulating due to the air temperature being in the mid to upper 30s and or warm ground.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112118/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46.png

    Something to monitor.

  28. A fairly small (~2 feet) tsunami has been reported in Japan. The USGS downgraded their initial estimate of the strength of the quake to a 6.9. That’s simply not large enough to produce a major tsunami. Very good news there.

    I haven’t given up on a storm potential for this weekend. Models have been waffling on the details, but we should see redeveloping low pressure somewhere off the New England coast by Saturday.

  29. Thanks JP for your response above.

    If we get coastal development this weekend I’m assuming to warm to snow near the coast?

      1. I think the jury is still out on that. Euro has cold 850 mb and surface in upper 30s.
        It is possible. We shall see, but if so much more likely inland, save for possible bakend

    1. Thanks I’m taking Friday off to decorate with my son but have 3 jobs going next weekend . I thought next weekend was it but my phone hasn’t stopped ringing today . I’m running out of time I turned a job tonight as I’m running against the clock . I’m praying to the weather gods give me a dry weekend

  32. Great slideshow of scenes from the heavy snow in NW CT today…
    http://www.wfsb.com/slideshow?widgetid=191625

    I cannot remember another recent time where that much snow fell in one part of the State and virtually nothing fell across the rest of CT. From 16″ to nothing in about 15 miles. Common in the mountains of VT or lake effect areas but not here.

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