Sunday Forecast

64 Comments

2:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Improved weather for this final day of the long Thanksgiving Weekend as we see sunshine, a seasonable chill, and a gusty breeze as low pressure offshore moves away and high pressure approaches. This high will move across the region tonight and Monday with tranquil weather. Our pattern is being dominated by a fairly active Pacific jet stream, however, and the next low pressure system will move in rapidly on Tuesday with another round of wet weather. We may get a break of sorts on Wednesday between systems, but a second low will track northwest of the region Thursday and though some of the region may miss out on the warmest of the air, areas to the south and east may get quite mild briefly Wednesday night or early Thursday before a front sweeps through from the west. But before any cold air can get in, the precipitation, which will fall as rain, will be gone.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-27 interior valleys, 28-33 elsewhere. Wind light NW to W.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32 interior, 32-37 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers during the day. Rain showers likely at night. Temperatures generally steady 42-49 but may rise into the 50s southeastern areas later at night.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely but should end with breaking clouds later. Temperatures 40s northwest, 50s southeast early, falling later.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Colder December 2-4 with a few snow showers especially December 2-3. Fair with moderating temperatures later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
Pacific jet stream should send 1 or 2 low pressure areas into this area with precipitation threats more likely to be rain than mix/snow. Temperatures generally above normal.

64 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK! Does the Tuesday rain move in during the morning or afternoon? Trying to get more leaves done that day since I’m off.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    FWIW, the Euro shows a spell of cooler weather, highs mostly in the 30s, Dec 2-5 followed by another Lakes Cutter and warm up. Not sure if that verifies. We shall
    see. Probably not.

  6. 12Z Euro wants to give Boston 4 inches of snow overnight 12/5 into the morning of 12/6.
    Let’s see IF that pans out. 😀 1 foot plus up North.

  8. Wow, GFS really opens the flood gates with some cold air across much of the US as we head towards the end of next week and beyond, along with a couple snow threats for us. We’ll see if that materializes…..still pretty long range.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    The thunder/pollen storms several days ago in Australia are truly remarkable and alarming. 8500 people have been hospitalized, 6 people are confirmed dead. This is a very tragic story and has barely received attention here in the U.S.

    1. Pollen t-storms are actually fairly common there. The one last week was just one of the larger ones and of course got the attention of the internet for the use of sensational headline.

  13. Get that snow over to me as I missed out on the big totals parts of Northern Litchfield County had that were up in elevation.

  14. Finally something to keep an eye on. Let’s see if the gfs holds on to that potential artic outbreak and some snow.

  15. GFS: Continues to make the mistake of trying to change things too rapidly.

    ECMWF: It can’t really forecast snow amounts 3 days in advance. Forget the idea of anything beyond that.

  17. The model battle is shaping up regarding the wet weather timing for the 2nd surge: Weighted on Wednesday or Thursday? GFS and later panels of the NAM are typically faster, and they are with this, with more of a Wed afternoon and night event and a drier, windy, colder Thursday. And of course the ECMWF is slower with a milder/wetter Thursday. The GEM is split more down the middle. I have the slower timing on my forecast for now but that may get adjusted…

      1. It’s been right more often than not with faster timing during the autumn. I’m starting to lean in that direction myself. Couple more runs before I really start adjusting things though.

  18. I’ve said for 3-4 weeks they’re not right; on either side of the ball. I don’t think they are together as a team. Kinda like 2009.

    1. Yea but…..

      They played the first four without their QB and have eight wins.

      They win. They lose. They are an amazing team and we are lucky to have them….perhaps a tad spoiled….but that is ok too.

      2. They’re not very good Vicki. They have 8 wins because the rest of the NFL isn’t very good either. Brady’s hurt and probably shouldn’t be playing today.
        I thought they could clean this up, but after 10-11 games, you are what you are.

        1. And yes, we are spoiled, but I’m not one to NOT criticize my team when they aren’t playing well.
          And yes Matt. The Dolphins are making some noise.

          1. Sorry. Learned far too young that is incredibly counterproductive. But to each his or her own. That btw is why I consider Boston fans to be really bad.

            1. To clarify….and it is literally my opinion but learned well from the best…..a fan does not just support his or her team when they win. In fact…the team or player needs it more when they are not doing well.

              1. Jeez I hate word press!
                It should’ve read
                Whatever happens, I’m still a fan, but I still call them out when they suck.

    2. Pats are badly out of sync right now. I agree with you Blackstone. I’ve had a lot of patience and optimism with them this year. It’s run out. They’re just not very good. Sure they have a good record, their schedule is toilet paper soft. They’ll be an easy one and done in the playoffs with the team they have now.

  19. I agree WxWatcher.
    I don’t think they’re taking coaching very well for whatever reason. BB has shaken up the defense, and nothing seems to work. The offense has been out of sync for a few weeks. Kinda hard to figure.
    They could still win this game but man the Jets defense is pretty bad and the Pats are struggling.

          2. A friend’s daughter dated welker. She is friends with most of the team even now. She said she loves them but there is a football mentality and that is about it.

  22. Pats won on discipline today. No turnovers and few penalties. I just hope the W on the scoreboard doesn’t gloss over some very glaring problems the team has. Another softball game next weekend.

  23. If the Cowboys play the Pats in the Super Bowl I am not as scared as I once was. If Seattle could run the ball on them we certainly can considering our offensive line is better than Seattle’s and we got a great rookie running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Tampa did us a favor beating Seattle today.

  25. BB did not seem too disappointed, and neither was I. They are allowed to have a weak game. The team is hurting a bit. It was a nutty week. They did well enough to win. And this has nothing to do with future games. One week at a time.

    As for the weather, I’m again laughing about these social media sites run by non-mets who routinely dis meteorologists like myself for actually applying science to our thinking, versus just forecasting what we WANT to happen. I’m still waiting for that massive shift to a cold/snowy pattern right about Thanksgiving and that rip-roaring start to winter that they pretty much guaranteed, while actual meteorologists like those at NWS have been forecasting a relatively mild pattern as the coldest air remains locked in Eurasia. Not seeing any huge changes coming up, but I’m sure they’ll keep forecasting that switch to cold and big snow, because that’s what they want. Keeping it real on this end, folks.

  26. My weekly outlook is posted, and as usual, I’m sure it’ll be similar to the forecast that TK posts in the AM: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/11/28/weekly-outlook-november-28-december-4-2016/

    As I hinted at the end, the models have all something next Monday. GFS/CMC/NAVGEM are all weak, with a little rain or snow, but the new ECMWF has another big storm with a moderate snowstorm for the interior before change to rain. I’d lean towards the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM for now, but the fact that they all have something for then is reason enough for me to keep an eye on it.

    Of course, should it materialize, it won’t be my problem. I’ll be gone December 4-11, somewhere that wintry weather is a concern less than 0.1% of the time. 1 day in Miami, a 5-day cruise through the Bahamas, and 3 days in Orlando. So, y’all enjoy the cold that week, I won’t.

  28. Good morning. Well yesterday’s next week’s 4 inches of EURO snow for Boston has gone poof! There’s a surprise. 😀

    I only have one good thing to say and that is the ocean temperature has been responding to the relatively cooler weather lately and it is down to: 51.4

    A long way to go for sure, but we’ve had some significant progress the last
    week and 1/2. 😀

    I have my eye on December 10th. Let’s see what shakes out.

  29. btw, BEAUTIFUL morning today. Nice crisp temperatures with some frost on
    the car that responding to a healthy dose of wiper fluid and the wipers. 😀

  31. Here are 2 screen shots from my new AcuRite Mobile App that became available with
    their new upgrade to the smart hub. Personally, I think it is truly awesome. I can look
    at my weather station from any where in the world that has a wireless signal.

    http://imgur.com/a/XKygc

    And here is a screenshot of my weather station as it appears on the Wundermap.
    I had to re-do this after the upgrade, thus it is a different station name than previously:

    http://imgur.com/a/dXknt

    AS always, you can click on any image to enlarge it. 😀

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