Thursday Forecast

120 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
December starts mild, but breezy. A cooling trend will take place in the first few days of the month but no major cold is coming, so a fairly tranquil stat to the month other than the breeze of the next couple days.
TODAY: Rain departs Cape Cod early. Overcast departs eastern coastal areas then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-61. Wind W 10-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 45-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-48.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-48.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 26-33. Highs 37-44.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Stormy weather possible mid to late period, odds favor rain as temperatures run above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Similar pattern, a storm or 2 may threaten but still looks like a storm track that would favor rain over mix/snow.

120 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. TK thank you. I know you are busy, but if time allows could you post the average snowfall forecasts from what we all submitted?

    1. Longshot, I gave the database. I’m not sure what you mean by average. An average of everyone’s by city? An overall average including all cities?

  4. “Now the First of December was covered with snow
    So was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston. Though
    the Berkshires seemed dream-like on account of that frosting
    With ten miles behind me and ten thousand more to go.”

  6. Longshot, I’ll post link here.

    TK, without adding a ton of work, is it possible to place a link to this years contest page at the top of the blog? If not, no problem as I can find it by just going to November archives.

    Sue, did you add numbers and I missed them? Same question for everyone. If your numbers are incorrect here or I missed you, please let me know.

    Thanks

    http://imgur.com/Vntj6g7

    1. Also, please let me know if the link does not work. I can see the graphic but want to be sure everyone can.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    0.98 inch yesterday and 0.35 after midnight for an event total of: 1.33 inches
    0.56 previous event, so the 2 event total was: 1.89 inches.

    November total: 3.12 inches which is certainly near average.
    October was 4 inches plus, so that is 2 consecutive decent rain months.

    Let’s see what December brings.

    Regarding snow chances….

    The Euro as fully expected has completely backed off from it’s snow of the previous 2 runs and now has a coating at best is all.

    On the other hand, the GFS has suddenly become a tad more robust as in a couple
    of inches. πŸ˜€

    For the 12/10 or so event

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_38.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120106/gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016120106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=240

  10. I have a suggestion for the snowfall contest next year. How about adding New Bedford?

    Average New Bedford snowfall = 32.7″

  12. Woodshill snowfall mean (averages)
    Boston 46.32
    worcester 65.09
    providence 34.63
    Hartford 45.53
    Concord 57.85
    Burlington 73.66
    Portland 70.98

    Blackstone had the lowest for Boston. MassBay had the highest. MassBay also had the higherst numbers in Burlington and Portland.

  13. This is the view this morning at the Arizona Snow Bowl SKI resort just North
    of Flagstaff, Arizona. The location follows:

    http://store.arizonasnowbowl.com/images/webcams/Sunset00005.jpg?1480601404000

    Humphreys Peak (Hopi: Aaloosaktukwi, Navajo: DookΚΌoΚΌoosΕ‚Γ­Γ­d) is the highest natural point in the U.S. state of Arizona, with an elevation of 12,637 feet (3,852 m) and is located within the Kachina Peaks Wilderness in the Coconino National Forest, about 11 miles (17.7 km) north of Flagstaff, Arizona. … Coordinates Β· 35Β°20β€²47β€³N 111Β°40β€²41β€³Wο»Ώ

    They can catch snow, but we can’t. Go Figure.

  14. Thanks TK !

    The second floor in our school is rather warm today. This can only mean one thing, December has arrived, which lately has been a crazy warm month in the eastern US during the last several years.

    2. There could be one bit of positive news coming out of this snowfall/storm system …..

      I think the snowfall in northern Maine may have extended northwestward into parts of the southern Quebec Province.

      Assuming it stays relatively chilly up there, at least your starting to have snow cover to our north and that creates a chance for some chillier air masses to build north of New England.

      Hudson Bay is currently another jaw dropper. Checking out arctic sea ice analysis page, a good part of Hudson Bay that should at least have a thin covering of ice is ice free. Its difficult to build cold, when the things you need for cold are absent.

        1. The cold is on the other side of the world right now. Its plenty cold there. It’s happened before, it’ll happen again. The teleconnectors just aren’t favorable to bring it over the pole right now.

  16. Hope I am not too late:

    Boston: 50.8
    Worcester: 63.9
    Providence: 37.9
    Hartford: 61.6
    Concord: 78.4
    Burlington: 89.2
    Portland: 71.3

      1. Me too. Completely forgot.

        Boston 45.6
        Worcester 54.7
        Providence 36
        Hartford 58.7
        Concord 65.6
        Burlington 82.8
        Portland 61.2

        1. You are very welcome. I remember a special person who compiled the list last November when I could not. That special person could present her numbers after the snow has finished and I’d still record them πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜€

    2. Thank you. I would have intuitively thought that anyway.

      Look at the medical facilities and the educational institutions in this
      state in addition to many high tech industries and a world class Capital
      City.

      I wouldn’t live any place else. πŸ˜€

    3. I just wish the study didn’t rely so heavily on percent of the population with higher education levels. There are plenty of hard working folks in trades and whatnot that don’t have college degrees.

  20. I feel like the instantweathermaps snowfall predictions are far more accurate than the euro on that eurowx site. Must use a different algorithm. Those euro maps for snowfall are always waaaaay overdone.

    1. The Euro snow maps use a straight 10:1 ratio.
      Instant Weather Maps uses the Kuchera Method, which If I remember correctly
      uses temperatures at different levels to get a better idea of the actual
      snow ratio. It is not perfect, but is far better than the strigh 10:1 ratio.

      However, given that, Neither account for warm surfaces or surface temperatures above freezing. The forecaster has to factor that in.

      2. Thanks for the info JpDave. I remember now a similar discussion last year about this very thing. No one algorithm is perfect I guess but seems like with all the tech out there, one would try and put ALL contributing factors into a model output.

    1. And what are we supposed to see here? The only thing I can see
      is much water movement at the beginning. Probably a boat went by
      close to the camera.

      What do people think it is? A Manatee? A shark? A whale?
      The Monster from the blue Lagoon? πŸ˜€

        1. The whole video is .34
          You mean that little swimming thing on the bottom left
          near the beginning? Not clear enough to make out.

          Could be an eel.

          Doesn’t freak me out in the slightest. Whatever it was, it was NOT big and no reason to be alarmed.

          Hey, maybe it was a baby water horse. πŸ˜€

  22. For those who will be looking, there’s potential for major delays (up to 3 hours) on the 12z ECMWF today due to power failures on their end. Reboot of their supercomputers is needed.

    1. WTF, back surgery, What the hell happened to him?
      Generally speaking one does not sustain a back injury that requries
      surgery. It’s usually some other deteriorating condition that one has.
      (I’m sure there are exceptions)

      Is it really back surgery? OR is it some sort of ligament surgery in the back area like an acl or something?

      When I think of true back surgery I am thinking like fusing or removing a disk or 2. IF that is the case, he may done.

      Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

      I HATE the way the Pats hide injuries. I don’t like their high and mighty
      attitude.

      1. Sadly, it may be time to re-evaluate Gronk and seriously consider suggesting retirement. Maybe hire him as an assistant or even front office. His injuries are getting way too frequent now. πŸ™

    2. He is an amazing talent. No one can take that from him. But he is really soft when it comes to injury. Very very sad.

  24. Regarding the Kuchera Snowfall Algorithm, I found this:

    Accum Snowfall usingsing Mr. Evan Kuchera algorithm for snow to liquid ratio – NEW (2/14/06)

    Contact: Evan Kuchera

    0.5 degree isobaric GFS GRIB data from NCEP.

    The snowfall accumulation algorithm is as follows:
    1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP)
    2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)
    3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)
    The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time.

    1. Good idea to get it taken care of now I guess to leave the door open for a possible super bowl return, if they make it there. Gonna have to rely on Bennett now (who’s also hurt) and get another TE in here too. The offense is not the same without Gronk and at times can be anemic.

  26. I don’t even see a possible play that he got hurt on. I suspect this was an ongoing issue. I heard a report yesterday that said his early season absence was more due to his back than the hamstring. His back was never listed as as injury IIRC.

    1. IF I recall, when Gronk was drafted, he fell quite a ways down on the draft list
      due to a “back” issue and that is the reason the Pats were able to grab him and they “literally” took a chance.

      Now this all makes sense. Perfect sense actually.

      Thanks John.

  27. Third herniated disk surgery. One in 2009, another in 2013. He’s done for the season. They’ll keep him 1 or 2 more season then they’ll release him is my bet. His deal runs thru 2019, but the pats save 7 million or 11 million against the cap if they release him in 2018 or 2019.
    Too bad. He’s a great player, but he can’t stay healthy.

    1. Is that a hunch he is done for the season, or do u have inside info? BTW, i agree with you but its just a feeling. If the Pats somehow miraculously make it to the SB, he might suit up but be ineffective like in 2011 against the Giants with the ankle.

    2. Agreed. It is too bad.

      NOW, can they keep Bennett, who is a very fine talent. Seems they must.
      If they let him walk, they are NUTS. (well I think they are anyway!)

    3. On a far more important note. Blackstone, are there any good Chinese restaurants out this way? Thank you πŸ™‚

      1. Meh.
        Not what I would call great. We go to King Jade in Whitinsville up by Shaws. A lot of people like China Pacific up on 122 on the Uxbridge line. But I don’t care for it personally.

        1. Thank you. We were going to one by hannaford but it changed hands and we got plastic pieces in the fried rice

      2. Take the drive and hit PF Chang’s at the Natick Mall.
        Well worth the trip.

        Other than that, you 2 are out of my neighborhood. πŸ˜€

        1. Chang’s is good. I’ve eaten at the Natick one and at the Cambridgeside Galleria location. Kinda pricey for what you get. I like the mom and pop Chinese if you can find a decent one.
          Kowloon is pretty good, but it’s waaayyyyy out of my hood.

        2. I like changs and used to go when I was on mall side of the area but wouldn’t go all the distance now. I’ve eaten at the one in natick and in San Francisco.

          Like blackstone, I like the mom and pop places. We had a really nice one in Sudbury that I miss

    1. This year, IF they even make it, No Way they win WITHOUT Gronk. No Way.
      Most especially IF it is Seattle. πŸ˜€

  31. Don’t rule out my Cowboys making it to the Super Bowl. Part of me starting to think Super Bowl. Seattle and the Giants worry me.

  33. We will be able to run on the Pats I believe with our offensive line which is way better than Seattle’s. We won’t be able to stop them on offense. We have no passing rushing to speak of and the Redskins were able to moving up the field on us. We need to draft pass rushers and if we do that were in the discussion for Super Bowls.

  34. Euro shows a coastal on the evening of 12/6 centered off of the North Carolina Coast.

    850 MB temperatures still below freezing from just South of New England all the way
    North. Hmmm
    Surface temps BELOW freezing all areas except “immediate” coast. Hmmm

    1. Interesting. The coastal goes poof ala the CMC.

      Since when does the Euro mimic the CMC? Today, I guess. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  37. Then immediately following the demise of the coastal, a rip roaring LAKES CUTTER
    occursI()!@#*!@*(#^&*!@^#&*^!*&@#^&*!^@#%!@^%#^!%@^#&@#%!

    1. I’m giving myself plenty of time to get pissed. Pretty much going to ignore hoping for snow until sometime in January.

      2. Hi retrac. I cannot recall if I have your snow predictions. If not, today is fine to post.

        I’ll even try to be pissed too πŸ™‚

  38. The Gronk injury is so sad, obviously it sucks for the Pats but I’m mostly just sad for Gronk. Such a talented guy, but his body has consistently let him down. I agree with Blackstone that even if we go all the way to the Super Bowl, we won’t see him again this year. I’m sure he’ll come back for next year, but you do have to wonder if retirement isn’t far on the horizon, especially if we see a repeat of this next year.

    For the team itself, this feels like a doomed season to me. I was already souring on them, but this is a big morale blow, and obviously a big loss on the field for the offense. We’ll see how we stack up against Baltimore and Denver in the next couple weeks, and I fear it won’t be pretty. We’ve seen magic from BB and TB12 before though. If they have any of that left, we’ll have to see it these next couple months.

        1. I don’t agree with that’s you never know for sure. They went in 2011 when they really had no business going that year. If it weren’t for a Welker drop, they probably could have won.

    2. I’m with you WxWatcher. I’m waiting for the Ravens and Broncos. Ravens aren’t great this year, but they give the Pats fits no matter how good or bad they both are. Denver gives the Pats a game no matter what, usually. And it’s in Denver which is bad bad.
      If they look ok against those 2 teams, they might be ok. Like you said, theyve pulled it out before. I just don’t think they have enough defense to help out an offense that’s struggled at times to score points to go to far in the playoffs. I’ve said it before, but it feels like 2009 to me. Not a great locker room, lots of intangables going against them, and players not taking coaching well.

  39. North, I saw your snow amounts. Please keep at me to make sure I post them. I’m not working today and tomorrow so not as apt to be at computer.

  40. Reasons for optimism in New England.
    1. Patriots can win the close games
    2. patriots can now run the ball
    3. Brady evenly distributing the ball among his receivers
    4 o-line is better than the last two years
    5 Bennett has shown he can hold the fort for the TE position without Gronk and honestly does better without him on the field statistically.
    6. Brady has all the other parts of the offense at his disposal. Unless what happened before when Lewis went down and then a series of serious injuries happened the offense will be fine.

    On Defense.
    1. we are in the top 10 in terms of allowing points.
    2. Their are signs of players waking up
    3 Butler has quietly been one of the top corners in the game
    4 we have Patricia

    special teams.
    1. give the kicker a break, he is going through a slump, no one is going to make everything. If people just shut up their will be no distractions and he can get back to the way he was. No kicker has been that good this year. He has also made every long kick he has been asked to do.
    2. Special teams of new england is one of the best.

    the teams that usually give the patriots fits are indeed going to the playoffs I think. Ravens to name one. KC Ravens, Raiders and Dolphins all have their strengths but so do the patriots. Ravens a dam good defense, Dolphins good running back. Raiders over all decent team and KC is like the patriots in alot of ways. we will just have to see, Just saying the pats are the number one seed….. Lets stop and realize we are indeed spoiled

    1. Matt, ok But the defense is in the middle of the pack on all other
      defensive stats. They are basically “average” at best. If you ask me, they
      straight out suck! I think Butler is getting exposed. Perhaps he is not
      quite as good as we thought he was. πŸ˜€

      1. Butlers fine. He’s no worse than before. The problem is they have no pass rush. When you have no pass rush, they have to play more zone instead of man to man. The zone the Pats play is pretty bad right now. Their corners are more suited to man, but with no pass rush they can’t play it. Long and Sheard were supposed to be the pass rush, but that hasn’t panned out like it was drawn up. IMO, it really hasn’t been the lack of Collins, he was actually irrelevant for the most part. Even when he was here, they had the same problem. It’s the lack of not replacing Jones that’s hurt the defense.

  41. Another all important question for blackstone…..is there ANYPLACE other than divine Thai and village pizza that delivers out here. I figure anyone who starts something halfway decent and offers delivery is sitting on a gold mine

    Thank you

    Back to weather. ……it got colder πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    1. Not much.
      King jade chinese does but not sure if they go to Sutton.
      We like village pizza a lot. It’s just down the street from me.

      1. Thank you. We like village pizza too. Getting it tonight :).

        We are so close to you that I found many will deliver here who won’t go into Sutton. Daughters home phone actually shows as northbridge.

  42. Going back to the weather for a minute, I don’t think we’ve had a hard frost yet here in Quincy. The Cleome behind Colonial Federal in Wollaston is still in flower and looks nice. Seems kind of late for a first hard freeze, not that I’m complaining…

  43. Good late night or early morning all.

    I ended up on a long shopping excursion with my mom to NH Thursday evening, then extended it out a little longer with a friend after dropping Mom off.

    Finally got home to take care of a few things and with a 2nd wind decided to write the new forecast update which you can find posted already.

    Snow threats are minimal to non existent during the next 2 weeks for the most part. There may be a brief bout of snow showers early Monday and depending on timing, perhaps a round on the back side of a front about Friday of next week, but that’s so far out it’s not even really worth a solid mention.

    We may need to watch a system around December 12, but the regime would point to more wet than white there as well.

    I caution you, don’t pay attention to model details other than for the fun of it beyond a couple days. Pacific jet pattern – timing will be an issue on models since things are moving along yet energy is only onshore in the West for a relatively short time before it’s set to impact us here. Even my outlook is highly subject to change, timing-wise.

    1. P.S.

      We can sneak in some snow contest entries for a few more days. No unfair advantage to be had in the pattern we have right now. Let’s just open it up through this coming weekend to catch everyone.

      I’ll make one more post about it.

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