Saturday Forecast

74 Comments

3:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
High pressure center west of the region send a cooling northwesterly flow into the region for the weekend with fair weather. A weak disturbance will pass through during the first half of Monday and may bring a few insignificant snow showers. A couple low pressure areas will approach from the southwest late Tuesday but will be weakening as they move through on Wednesday with insignificant rainfall.
TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 40-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 22-32, coldest interior MA and southern NH. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-32. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-32. Highs 44-52.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 34-42. Highs 42-50.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
Another low pressure area arrives from the west early in the period with a rain threat, but its departure will be followed by a blast of colder air December 9-10 with no more than a few snow showers but mainly dry weather. Fair and more tranquil by December 11 but the next Pacific low may bring unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Similar pattern with 1 or 2 Pacific jet stream lows bringing a risk of precipitation. Some models have hinted at cold enough for snow for one of these but it’s too early to know for sure. I’d lean milder at this point.

74 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. It’s having trouble determing how the two areas of energy interact. We all know how that type of storm set up is behaves a little bit and we either have a buggy or a wimp

      2. I am NOT saying the Euro is correct, however, I’d lean more towards the Euro than the GFS.

        IF it’s still there with the 12Z Euro, then we may have something.

        BUT, It will probably be gone. 😀

  6. Office Christmas Party tonight at the Marriott Long Wharf on the Boston Water Front.
    Beautiful venue as it is in the grand ballroom (same place we had our daughter’s
    wedding reception). Should be a good time.

    2. Beautiful. You and Sue will both be celebrating in Boston.

      It is perfect December weather for Christmas celebrations.

    1. It will likely occur but only last a few days. It’s not a switch to a sustained cold pattern at this point.

    1. If I was at about 25% at my low, I’d say we’ve crossed the 50% mark, barely. At least it’s the right direction… 😉

  9. To put things into a bit of perspective, we know that the GFS (and other models) is still trying to figure out if a dominant low will impact this area on Wednesday or a second area of energy will be a more dominant feature on Thursday.

    Regarding the “snow threat” showing up for somewhere in the Dec 15-17 time frame, the energy that the model is using to create that system, as best as I can trace backward, is currently located somewhere near Mongolia…

      1. I don’t even think the Euro has the event for the 12th much near correct.

        It’s going to continue to be famous for its horrendous snow forecasts.

        1. If it’s still there on the 12Z run, then perhaps it is onto something. If on the other hand, this feature is gone, then you will be proven 100% correct (at least so far). 😀

      2. But that is the Nature Of Medium range forecasting. no?

        Determine current conditions and extrapolate 12-16 days in
        the future. One minor error now translates to how much of
        an error that far into the future????

        That being said, the models are slowly improving.

        As I said several times before, even if these don’t pan out, it
        is nice seeing them there. At one point, something will happen.
        😀

  10. This morning’s NAMs are advertising some snow for Monday
    and again on Thursday before changing over to rain.

    Harvey was talking about snow for Monday, so We shall see.

  11. Definitely an active pattern over the next two weeks, but as TK has been saying probably not an overly snowy one for SNE. What I’m watching…

    *Monday morning- a period of light snow is likely, better chances the further west you go. Not a big deal. It’s possible there could be an inch or so of snow out towards Worcester, especially in the hills. Many limiting factors though, from general lack of QPF to marginal surface temperatures.
    *Wednesday- low tries to come up from the south with some rain/mix, but the precip shield will likely die out for the most part as it approaches. Again, not a big deal.
    *Thursday-Friday: Low pressure may develop over the top or to the west of us ahead of the arctic air. Likely means some rain for SNE and maybe snow north. Some indications that this one may wind up very quickly (30mb pressure drop in less than 24 hours on the 12z GFS) so it’s worth watching. Cold moves in behind it.

    No reason to look for details any farther out than that, but I would again be in agreement with TK’s general thoughts.

        2. It’s on Berkshire and Vandine. A couple of news outlets said that’s in Kendall SQ. It’s actually northwest of Kendall Sq. Mostly a residential area. Lots of old 3 deckers on that block of Berkshire.

          1. Sounds like that whole half block is involved. Vandine is a half block street between Plymouth St and York St. Mostly residential. Lots of people are going to be displaced. Hopefully everyone got out in time. 10 alarms means multiple structures involved. That 10 fire companies fighting that thing.

          2. Thanks Blackstone. I was just listening to scanned when they called 10th alarm. Newton is sending in its air unit.

            Not that it would be that large and praying they get it under control, but I was wondering how many alarms the 1973 Chelsea fire was. I was under impression and also read that 9 alarms is max. Although not sure why you’d stop aid. The person on the scanner said there was no way to tell FPDs how to get near fire. They’d just have to find a way

            1. So Sad. I used to work a few blocks from
              there on Bent street. Played softball
              on the field very close to the fire
              (Donnelly Field)

              I have never heard of 10 alarms.
              Usually when it is bad enough they
              sound a general alarm and I am not
              sure what that means. It’s like all available units or something like that.

              1. I had heard of 9 but, like you, never 10. And then also as you said the general alarm. I’ve been out need to see if it is under control

  13. A Jet Blue flight out of Boston had a multiple bird strike that damage the windshield of the aircraft and they had to turn back to Logan. Plane circled for a while to dump fuel and then landed safely.

  15. any chance of the storm shown on the nam and gfs become stronger middle of next week which could make it a cooler system??

  18. Hello all,

    I am back……………….Funny how you see a sign of a few flakes and the FB pages from the fake weather people are in full go mode

  19. I posted my numbers on the contest page, I don’t see many people posting them? Did I do in the right place?

  20. Based on the weather models of the last two days, Ski country which had not had that good of a season for a few years, look to score big through the first half of December.

  21. so the childish Charlie is still snooping around the blog and just messaged me on facebook saying im a fraud…. A fraud how?? Its funny he messaged me when Hadi came back on the Blog. What a child. Block him from your social media.

  23. The 6z GFS backed WAY off on the storm for next Monday and the Euro doesn’t have anything either. That’s fine by me for now. I’m about to head to Logan for a flight to Miami, followed by a 5-day cruise in the Bahamas and 3 days in Orlando. I fly home next Sunday night. The last thing I need is to fly back to a snowstorm.

    1. Enjoy and I was just about to post the same thing.

      The 0Z Euro was a reality check. 0Z GFS was pure fantasy as often is
      the case in the longer ranges. 😀

  25. If you looked at all the different models, including the ensembles of the gfs, you saw that it was an outlier. Still looks like Northern New England (ski country) will do well for the first part of the month

  27. 1) The earliest sunset of the year in Boston occurs on:

    A. 11/06
    B. 12/08
    C. 12/21
    D. 1/03

    2) Bonus question … the latest sunrise occurs on what date?

    Answers later today.

  28. 3) Boston’s average high temperature in Boston starts at46 degrees and ends at …

    A. 47
    B. 43
    C. 38
    D. 32

    4) Boston’s average snowfall in December is …

    A. 9.0″
    B. 13.8″
    C. 18.6″
    D.23.4″

    Answers later today.

    2. I presume you mean aver December High?

      You don’t have the correct answer for the end.
      You have 38, but it WAS ALWAYS 37. Climate change?

      SO Iwill say ‘C’, but I protest.

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