Tuesday Forecast

151 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Low pressure approaches from the southwest later today and redevelops over or just south of the region by early Wednesday. Enough cold air will be left in the region for a period of snow/sleet in higher elevations of mainly north central MA and southwestern NH, and sleet/freezing rain in other portions of central into interior northeastern MA and southern NH, with rain closer to the coast and in areas to the south. Steadiest precipitation arrives from west to east after 4PM today and lingers through Wednesday morning before tapering off as mainly periods of light rain/drizzle southeast, light mix/snow northwest later Wednesday. Drier weather returns Thursday and Friday, probably Saturday as well as a building high pressure ridge holds off the next approaching low pressure system.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice central MA and southwestern NH, ice/rain elsewhere with icing most likely central MA and interior northeastern MA and southern NH. Lows 30-38. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely morning with some lingering icing north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow/sleet accumulation of 2-4 inches possible highest elevations north central MA to southwestern NH, coating to 2 inches remainder of interior southern NH to about I-495 northeastern and central MA. Periods of light rain/drizzle afternoon but possibly mixed with snow interior MA and NH. Highs 37-44. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 28-35. Highs 38-45.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 20-28. Highs 37-44.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-26. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Overall milder temperatures with at least one storm threat, favoring the middle of the period and more likely rain than ice/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
Transition toward colder may begin during this period with one weak system favoring light rain/mix early period then another storm threat having a stronger possibility of having mix/snow involved, favoring the second half of the period.

151 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Discussion from Taunton:
    An initial over-running setup ahead of low pressure emerging out of
    the C CONUS against a 1030+ high over SE Canada. Focus upon a front-
    end thump of an isentropically ascending warm-moist conveyor belt
    over a shallow surface cold dome. Subsequent mixed-bag of precip
    beginning during the later-half of Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
    sweeping W to E. Transition to an immediate offshore low overnight
    ahead of a mid-level positively-tilted trough across regions of
    favorable baroclinicity offshore, colder and drier air is drawn S
    across New England. Mixed-bag of precipitation transitions to mainly
    rain and/or snow as storm exits through Wednesday.

    Timing:

    Focus on the later half of Tuesday into Tuesday night with height of
    the outcomes Tuesday evening. Lingering light showery weather into
    Wednesday.

    Trends:

    With onset will see low-levels saturate towards their respective wet-
    bulb, this as warmer air and rising thicknesses encroach from the SW.
    Will see onset of rain change over to a mix of snow, sleet and/or
    freezing rain, depending on location. As low pressure develops S of
    New England overnight into Wednesday will see a combination of cold
    air being drawn S from the 1030 high over SE Canada with an E flux
    of milder onshore winds. Precipitation types vary. Dependency on the
    temperature at a particular location and the thermal profile aloft,
    whether there is ice present as well. Will discuss the uncertainty
    below.

    Drier air working in from the W towards Wednesday and through the
    day, low-levels still saturated with a measure of lift, some light
    showery weather lingers. Ice in the column in question, but also
    will see temperatures warming. Some places, particularly the high
    terrain, may still be dealing with a wintry mix of light precip.

    Uncertainty:

    Thicknesses and low level thermal profiles in doubt with respect to
    the depth and magnitude of both intruding warmer air around H8 and
    colder air immediately below to the surface. This in addition to
    surface 2m temperatures and whether ice is present in the column.
    Subsequently there is a whole mixed bag of precipitation outcomes
    that make it entirely challenging to get the forecast exactly right.
    There are going to be some tight gradients with respect to outcomes,
    especially across interior S New England, more specifically Essex
    and Middlesex Counties in MA, and likely some angry customers that
    we didn`t get the forecast right.

    Several concerns and unknowns:

    1) Duration of precipitation-type. For example, whether we get more
    sleet and/or freezing rain than snow which yielding lower snowfall
    totals. Forecast guidance has trended slightly colder limiting the
    intrusion of warmer air aloft, more than likely with the stronger
    and prolonged presence of low pressure developing S of New England
    overnight. Plus greater indications of ice being present within the
    column throughout the event, more than likely with mid-level ascent
    per follow-up positively tilted H5 trough. Still challenges in the
    interpretation of bufkit profiles as to the magnitude and strength
    of respective warm intrusion around H8 and colder air immediately
    below possibly down to the surface (think Bergeron principles).

    Consensus of probabilistics have increased in probability of a 6-
    inch snowfall as have deterministic forecast snow algorithms. Am
    inclined to believe we`ll see greater snowfall outcomes over N MA
    especially over the high terrain before mixing with or transitioning
    over to sleet and/or freezing rain. This in agreement with the
    consensus of forecast guidance and WPC forecast and probabilities.

    2) The exact evolution of 2m wet-bulb temperatures, where they will
    be at or below freezing during the event. Confident N flow as low
    pressure develops and deepens S of New England during the overnight
    period. Ageostrophic / isallobaric response drawing colder air S
    from high pressure over SE Canada with H925 temperatures around -20C
    should maintain a level of colder air across the region, especially
    the high terrain. Leaning with high-res WRF / NAM solutions with
    forecasting 2m temperatures, keeping sub-freezing conditions in
    longer especially as low pressure develops immediately S overnight.
    Toughest part to determine is the sharp coastal front boundary
    likely over Essex / Middlesex Co MA. Going to be a tight gradient in
    temperatures complicating the forecast.

    3) What happens into Wednesday. Drier air working in aloft as low
    levels remain saturated. This subsequent of the low pressure still
    deepening S of New England as it moves out to sea. A strong onshore
    surface flow while a mid-level trough sweeps the region invoking
    ascent aloft. Light showery weather / drizzle forecast but uncertain
    is the presence of ice in the column. Some indications, leaning a
    mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle, light snow / flurries that either
    taper off or change to liquid through Wednesday as temperatures warm
    at the surface. Will add to snow total amounts early, complicated by
    not knowing exactly where the aforementioned coastal front over NE
    MA will setup. Will keep with high-res forecast guidance 2m temps.

    Model Preference:

    Holding close to the suite of high-res guidance inclusive of the
    NAM, WRF model solutions, and Canadian. Trending less with global
    model solutions, however evaluating trends from the UKMET with
    respect to 2m and H85 temperatures.

    Forecast Outcomes:

    Snow…A general 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts, mainly
    over the high terrain, for areas N of the I-90 corridor extending
    N/E somewhere in-between the NE corridor of the I-495 / I-95 belt-
    ways (where the aforementioned coastal front is expected to reside).
    Lighter amounts for areas S into the N-tier of CT / RI.

    Ice..Greatest icing expected over the Berkshires, perhaps even the
    Worcester and Tolland Hills at the highest elevations, with ice
    accretion amounts ranging from a trace up to a tenth of an inch.

    Headlines:

    No adjustment to headlines both spatially or temporally. Areas such
    as Middlesex and Essex County MA are areas of dispute given their
    location with respect to an anticipated coastal front. Definitely
    going to see a gradient across the region of outcomes but not
    exactly sure where.

    Continued confidence in tandem with ensemble probabilistics that the
    higher elevations as well as N MA will see the greatest impact with
    respect to wintry weather. Areas of greatest concern with regards to
    impact are across the high terrain, namely elevations in excess of
    500 feet, definitely at or above 1000 feet.

    Impacts:

    Focusing on the Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM commute. Expected wintry
    precipitation will likely result in hazardous travel conditions,
    especially on untreated roads. Bridges and overpasses are most
    susceptible. Echoing the previous forecaster, it only takes a thin
    coating of ice to make conditions dangerous.

    Best advice is to remain aware of the oncoming weather, stay tuned
    to the latest forecasts, and if you have to travel at any time
    Tuesday into Wednesday, plan accordingly and give yourself extra
    time as necessary.

  4. Thank you, TK. Great explanation. It made it easy to visualize what is expected in each area. Hope you are on the mend,

  6. Good morning again.

    Opened my email to find that I have mandatory training at 10:30AM
    !@*#*(^!@&*^#&*!@#&*^!@&*#^&*!@^#&*^!&*@#^&*!^@*#&^!&*@#^*&!^@#&*^!&*@#^&*!@^*#^!&@#^!@&#^&*!@^*#&^!*&@#^&!^@#&*^!@&*#^&*!@^#&*

    Gimmie a break. How am I supposed to get any work done?????

    1. Man I hear that. I get that sometimes too. Meetings and training are usually such a waste. You can learn anything online, almost always for free.

  7. Thanks TK, and I hope you’re continuing to feel better. I’m in agreement with your thoughts on this storm. Shouldn’t be a terribly high impact event and nothing like 2008, but any time ice potential is involved travel becomes almost impossible, which will be the case for awhile in the interior. Mostly rain for greater Boston though.

    Longer range… I’ve got my doom and gloom hat on this morning. For one, I continue to believe we’re tracking towards a near record warm January. We still haven’t dealt with our warmest days of this stretch and won’t for another week or so. Until then, just methodically above normal.
    And then, the much anticipated pattern change, which I fear is in jeopardy. Still good indications for at least a transient shift to eastern/central US troughing around days 12-15. But as TK has hinted ar, this is more likely to be a mainly dry period, not a stormy one. And the staying power of any eastern trough pattern is looking in doubt to me. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, as warm as it’s been and will continue to be here, it’s even warmer (relative to average) and will continue to be so well to our northwest in Canada. So even if we get the kind of troughing that will drag that Canadian air down, what are we really bringing in from the source region? No brutal arctic cold, that’s for sure. Increasingly, this winter has the look of one that simply can’t keep itself in gear. Shows it’s face now and again, but fades away quickly. And as we roll towards February, the clock is going to start ticking.

    1. You often have your gloom and doom face on and I don’t always agree, however, this is one of those times that I fear you are spot on. Every time it begins to look promising, wham! right back to the ole shitty pattern. Great Winter for those
      that despise snow and cold, but for those of us who enjoy the snow, not so much.

      At least we got a couple of events in so far and weren’t totally skunked.

      Right now I am not feeling it at all. I am hopeful that there will be a change,
      but as you say, it won’t be long and we’ll be fighting climo.

      I twill probably change just in time to give us one of those brutally rotten
      Springs with COLD/DAMP NE winds day in and day out with rain and/or Drizzle throughout!!

      1. I don’t think it will be as bad this year. I see that SE ridge showing up during the spring. Sure they’ll be days of the crap you hate, but I’m convinced we’ll see some better spring weather in April than usual.

  8. As I read the exchange among WxWeather, Blackstone and JPD, it occurred to me that my inner (totally unprofessional) weather instinct is not feeling anything other than perhaps another small (I consider small under 10 inches) event and then on to spring. For the first time since perhaps 2012, my inner weather system is feeling spring and we are not halfway through winter.

  10. Here is an idea, we need to make it so that wxrisk does not mention any storm past 5 days, I have looked the past few seasons of following him on facebook.SO many times he mentions something on the euro for a good snow storm ( Yesterday) for example… Just for it to go poof. so we need to just make DT be quiet and we shall have our snow storms 😀 Yes this is superstition 😛

        1. I have learned that is true. Apparently, if you cannot fix it, then it is broken. I just cannot figure out why people who know this go there. One of those mysteries of life perhaps 😉

    1. euro had some storms for that time period on the 12z, yesterday and it went towards the gfs over night. Maybe it was a bad run we shall see

  15. Three cheers for Vicki’s inner weather system!!

    If it makes anyone feel even an iota better, this doom-and-gloom if it comes to fruition is my weather Pax Romanus. And I think after 2014-2015 (my first winter commuting into Boston again) we non snow lovers are still owed some additional payback. That being said I do choose to stay here (and never prouder to be in Mass than during this election cycle) so I know what I’m (or I should be) signing up for.

    1. Why thank you and let’s hope for “political” Pax Romanus. I too am proud of my state of MA…..weatherwise, livingwise, and politicalwise (is that a word). And ugh what a horrible year to recommence your travels to Boston. No wonder you want to hide under your bed.

      I really hesitate to tell you that my inner weather system is not reliable. However, I appreciate your writing with your words of encouragement……we know it is important to convey thoughts to the originator of the thoughts/predictions 😉

      1. Re: political Pax Romanus I’m a little concerned it may have just ended and the visigoths are coming and we are doing everything short of hanging out the welcome mat. Thankfully I too am lacking in successful predicting prowess – so please let us hope my unsuccessful streak continues! No snow and no visigoths is what I’m routing for – our modern Emperor Commodus notwithstanding…

        P.s. Wow – that Roman history course in high school seems to have stuck – who knew? I just wish I could also remember where I put my keys…

    2. Thanks, SAK. Cements it for here and a good thing too as I didn’t get around to checking batteries in my lanterns. And I, for one, will take rain over ice.

      LOVE your graphics….especially the one on snow, rain, sleet, etc.

  17. Good afternoon,

    I was looking at the 18Z NAM. It shows 850MB temps below freezing until about 2AM
    and then the line is just about through Boston or a tad North. Wiggle room?

    Also, in conjunction with that, I notice on radar that the precip is breaking out as
    snow and not rain. Still likely to break out as rain at the coast, however, I am wondering if there could be some evaporational cooling to either change it to snow until it warms aloft OR allow some sort of mix? I guess I’ll know soon enough either
    way.

    It’s currently 41 at my house in JP with a DP of about 29 or 30. Remotely I Only see Dew point High and Low and not current. High was 30 at 3:25. Suspect it is 29 now.
    Probably NOT enough of a spread, but we shall see.

    1. Sometimes the precipitation type on these radar display are whacked out, but let’s assume for the moment that it is correct. If so, then the models
      are NOT verifying as far as precipitation type goes. That includes the latest
      HRRR and the Current NAMs.

      Anyone reporting Snow out there?

  18. Sleeting in Sutton. Was just spitting rain at 3:30 when I stepped out. Looked just now and was surprised to find it is sleet.

  20. Don’t go by the radar precip type displays. The precipitation is arriving as mainly rain with pockets of sleet.

    1. I figured it might be something like that.

      You know I have asked a question several times on several sites and never received an answer.

      What determines the precipitation type that is displayed on those radar screens?

      Is it some sort of algorithm built into the radar site software? An algorithm at the site that displays the radar? By algorithm, I mean some sort of computer program that examines the radar returns and attempts to determine
      the precipitation type. OR is is simpler than that. and the radar site or display website, insert some sort of overlay based on recent surface reports.

      Seriously, I would like to know what method is used so I can better understand
      the validity of what I am seeing on those screens as far as precipitation type.

      Many thanks

        1. That would be cool. I mean it could be any one of the methods I described above and perhaps some other method as well.

          I can’t be the only one with this curiosity? Can I?
          Hope not?

          Anyway, very much appreciated and thank you.

          1. I don’t know if it’s still true, but I know for some of them it used to be based on the wet bulb. If the wet bulb was 33 or more, it showed rain, if it was 32 it showed mix, and if it was 31 or colder, it showed snow.

            These days, with dual-pol radar, it’s a lot easier to determine.

  21. I saw a report where it was SLEETING in Fitchburg as well. Certainly would have
    thought snow there. OH well, it is what it is as someone we know says.
    I wonder IF there will be a switch to snow a little later?

    1. It has to cool from above a little and then Fitchburg will go to snow and accumulate about 3 inches.

      1. Thank you. You confirmed my suspicions.

        So, it is possible to cool a warm layer? OR is it more that
        some “colder” air will be draining Southward and that will
        eliminate the “warmer” layer or at least cool it below freezing to allow snow instead of sleet.

        1. A little of both. It’s all fluid and the mix will be ongoing just enough for the white stuff in those favored areas. Fitchburg will probably be the “jackpot” of north central MA, as often it is.

    1. Southeast ridge shows its impact on the eastern US very nicely. Just what we expected at this point. 🙂

    2. That’s awesome. Now I personally would love that to stay all winter ha. Definitely not what one would “expect” to see in mid-January.

    1. It certainly is! If you zoom in enough on Boston and see a nice
      41 right near Jamaica Pond, you would be looking at my AcuRite station. 😀

    1. It should be in the mid to NO more than upper 30s.
      Boston buoy currently at: 44.8
      That is AT LEAST 6 degrees above average and could be 7 or 8 degrees above.

      1. you know, I am thinking later in the year like early to mid Feb.
        Now, perhaps it should be about 40 or so.

        Still that is about 5 Degrees above average.

  26. Sleet covered roads in Brattleboro VT. So you can see the temps aloft are pretty marginal to mild right now and it will take some pockets of heavier precipitation to drag down some cold from above that as well as advecting some down from the north.

  28. Loop the surface forecast from the 18z GFS and you’ll see the approaching system snap like a worn out rubber band to our southwest. I was not in agreement with Harvey’s 5-day forecast regarding the weekend that he made last night. I have not seen Ch 5’s forecast yet today.

  35. Ok, I am out running a few errands. You know what I am about to say? Correct?
    SNOW mixing in here in W. Roxbury.

      1. Temp down to 38. Only mixed with heavier rain elements. When it lightens up, I no longer see the snow splatting on the windshield.
        Probably won’t go over, but I’ll watch.

  38. Back to sleet now here in Sharon and starting to coat the ground. A few snowflakes even mixing in from time to time.

  42. Down to 37 here. I am in the house, So it is not very easy to see if Flakes are mixed in.
    It looks like it, but hard to tell. The temp coming down sometimes is a telltale sign.

    0.18 inch so far.

  43. It’s been 100% snow since about 9 in Wilmington. And it’s even full on snow, no sleet at all. Coating on the grass, nothing on the roads and I hope it stays that way. This is pretty surprising,I was expecting an all rain event.

    1. We mixed here in Woburn for a short time but enough for a very light slushy coating on cars and cold pavement as well as grass.

  45. Almost, but no cigar.

    Around 10:30 after a prolonged spell of heavier precip we went to about 75% snow.
    Never totally flipped. Then the precip lightened up and it went immediately back
    to RAIN. Temp had dropped to 36, but now back up to 37 with light Rain.

    Oh so close. Had the intensity kept up, we’d have been SNOW. Oh well.

    Not sure it’s going to come down hard enough the rest of the night, plus soon
    it will warm aloft and that will be the end of that.

  48. We are at the coldest stretch of winter and all we get is rain. I still believe we get decent storm chances as we close out January and into February.

  50. Good morning, looks as if we had snow and about 1/4 inch of wet or perhaps slightly frozen precip. School was delayed for two hours and roads are being treated. Not sure why but then there are a ton of narrow/windy roads and a lot of long rides on the bus so I much prefer being safe.

  52. Down my way backyard ice rinks are huge . I feel bad for the folks not getting the cold air because so much time goes into putting one of these rinks together . My friend has one with lights and a Machine to clean the ice .

        1. True dat.

          Used to be that could be done most Winters.

          A friend and I built one ourselves as kids. We carefully
          laid out buckets of water to flood the rink. Honestly,
          it didn’t work out too well for us. Too difficult to get
          it to be a rink of any size. It ended up about 30 feet
          by 30 feet. Not much fun there.

        2. You are correct, Ace. My son in law had one that managed to say frozen for just one out of the several years he had it. I’d think it would be even more difficult on the south shore.

    2. My boys skated on a friend’s backyard rink in Halifax on Monday. They love it. I wish it would get cold enough to freeze the ponds since we have one right across the street.

      1. So much for my theory of not staying cold enough on south shore. How do they get it to freeze? Or has it been colder there than I thought?

        Regarding ponds/lakes, we do as well, Sue. We were saying the other day that it would be nice to have it freeze. I sure don’t think I’d trust it this year. The kids have been able to use the sledding hill in our back yard twice but for each storm the snow was gone in a day.

        1. There has Been a couple of nights Vicki where it froze that’s about it . It’s huge down here the rinks and these are just not thrown together they are well built . The warm winter we had what 3 yrs ago pembroke built one right in the middle of the center it was awesome but had very little skate time due to it being so warm . I believe marshfield builds one every year up by the schools or they did .

          1. Son in laws was very well built also. The year he was able to use it the entire season was awesome. I used to see a lot in Framingham. I have not noticed any out here but there are so many ponds that it is possible it just isn’t needed.

            Natick used to have one in Cochituate. I recall it being frozen one year and then water and then not even filled. Do not know if they have discontinued.

      1. 17 minutes. From 10:46pm to 11:03pm

        KBOS 180354Z 11017G24KT 3SM RASN BR BKN008 OVC015 02/02 A3012 RMK AO2 SNB46 SLP197 P0010 T00220017

        SPECI KBOS 180446Z 10014KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC008 03/02 A3010 RMK AO2 SNE03 P0003 T00280022

  54. I don’t know if it has much of a push ….. but its 26F in Portland, ME and its dropped from 35F to 30F in Portsmouth, NH with both locations reporting a N wind. Perhaps this very shallow cold airmass might clip Cape Ann or the north shore ?

    1. Sometimes that kind of situation makes it all the way to boston. Not saying it will, just that it does sometimes. 😀

  55. My rink in Andover has been up since before Xmas, days usable: 1. Hoping I can hit it a few times with hose over the next few nights and maybe use it this weekend before warmup .

    1. Hang in there In my experience (13 years) a single digit night or two is the key to the backyard rink. Once you have your “ice cube ” frozen solid it can handle warm days if the nights are in the 20s. From ’91 -’03 my fewest days was 18 -my most was 52 and the average was in the 30s.
      Not that I was counting. 🙂 🙂
      I had LOTS of shade in the back yard– that was also a key.

      1. I did get a good base of ice in there during the last little cold spell, kept going out hourly putting down small layers… need a lot of patience, can’t pump in a few inches of water and expect it to freeze unless we have some serious cold… If I can get out there a few times each of the next three nights and early mornings before work, then it should be usable over the weekend… my only challenge is my rink is not perfectly level, so when I lose some one side ends up too shallow and I have to build up again. Unless we can get some real cold and I can add some better thickness.

  58. ARGHH!@()#*&!@&*^#&!^@#&^!@&*#^!@*#&!@^&^

    12Z GFS shows 3+ inches of rain on the 24th, followed by a Cutter on the 26th,

    (*@*(#^!*(@^#&*!^@&*#%^!&*@%^#&!@&*#!*@#&^!&@#^!&*@#&!@

  59. Sue broke the news first, I’d like to add on a little bit as well… NOAA and NASA have confirmed 2016 was Earth’s warmest year on record. Our third consecutive warmest year on record. This is no surprise; we’ve been able to predict with high confidence since the spring that 2016 would be the warmest year. Two primary drivers behind this: One was the strong El Nino, which helped produce huge global warm anomalies especially over the first few months of the year, leading to January-August all being their warmest respective months on record. The second is the human influence, the increase in heat trapping gases in the atmosphere, which piled onto the El Nino driven warmth early in the year, and then became the primary driver of continued near record global warmth late in the year. December 2016 was rated third warmest on record by NOAA, with El Nino long gone and in fact a weak La Nina present. There are many, many more stats I could go into, but I’ll save the space and just link a couple pages I’d highly recommend reading. First is the actual report from NOAA.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613

    Second is a blog post by Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson at Weather Underground, who always provide an excellent monthly summary of the climate reports.

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3544

    1. Thank you for your post WxWatcher. Excellent information and I’ll plan to read during lunch. So each year is the hottest on record………still…….in this century.

  60. Looking at the 1/16/00z ECMWF snowfall tool output for yesterday’s event.

    Fitchburg 9″
    Worcester 8″
    Orange 7″
    Bedford 5″
    Lawrence 5″
    Beverly 4″
    Norwood 3″

    Only posting this as reminder to be mindful of A) All models difficulty in diagnosing snow vs sleet vs freezing rain and its practical impact on surface accumulation. B) The ECMWF’s consistent issues of over quantifying snow totals this season with its snow tool output and it begins with the ECMWF’s own parameters which I believe are rapidly cooling the dendritic snow growth zone and then worsened by “proprietary” snow algorithms available from various sources which I think identify the lowest possible temperature from 500-1000, and even though above 700 it might be quite cold, most snow forms at 600mb and below, so it is taking a hyper cooled ECMWF’s precip and mixing it with a lowest possible temperature input as opposed to a more realistic in-period temp averaging profile in the layers above where most snow forms to maximize snowfall amounts by creating unrealistic snowfall ratios.

    1. Wow, that wasn’t just a little bit off, that was waaay off. Total systemic failure IMO and I don’t understand why it hasn’t been fixed yet.

  65. The 12Z Euro stenches up the place! at least through hour 216. At hour 240, a full 10 days from this morning, it begins to look very interesting.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2017011812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2017011812&region=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=240

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2017011812&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240

    This is 10 days out. As depicted it would start as snow in all areas, but hilghly
    likely to go over to rain in SNE, especially along the coast. Since it is 10 days out,
    this represents as chance as it is certainly likely to change some from run-to-run.

    Also, I would like to point out that this one would represent the 2nd of TK’s 2 storms,
    the 1st of which he indicated would be RAIN and the 2nd one “could” feature some
    frozen precipitation.

    This one is the watcher of choice. It will be truly interesting to watch this
    unfold.

    10 Days out, anyone like to make a prediction?

    Choices:

    A. It goes Poof and never materializes
    B. A miss as it gets suppressed OTS South of us
    C. A direct hit and a major snowstorm
    D. A coastal hugger/inside runner with some up front snow and a change to rain
    E. An inside runner, primarily RAIN with perhaps a touch of snow to start

    My early early early guess would be D. 😀 😀 😀 BUT oh so much time on this one.

  66. Tuesday next week storm on the models
    EURO
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011812/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

    GFS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011812/gfs_T850_us_27.png
    Warm and south sending rain/sleet/freezing rain

    Canadian.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017011812&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=356
    EURO and Canadian are in relative agreement in terms of the formation and path of the storm but euro is warmer. Canadian shows good snows in ski country. We shall see. EURO starts warm then cools.

    Thursday of next week one its way to far out to think about and two we need to see what happens with Tuesday time period.

    here are what the models show for thursday time frame
    GFS shows a darn cutter
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011812/gfs_T850_us_35.png
    EURO split North and south, Northern storms sends cold front through as it travels north.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011812/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

    Canadian Lakes cutter transfers energy into gulf of Maine. (kind of similar set up to todays storm)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011812/gem_T850_us_32.png

    then for a special and to far out
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011812/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

  68. 33.8 in Sutton. I am supposed to head to a meeting and then out to dinner. I wonder if someone could tell me if there is a chance the driving might be a problem this evening? I had not thought about roads freezing.

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