Sunday Forecast

147 Comments

2:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)
A cold front drops through southern New England from north to south this morning and brings a northeast wind flow from the Maritimes of Canada. This will turn the air chilly and damp and may result in spotty drizzle and even a few snow flakes. Not expecting all that much precipitation through the early hours of Monday, however. It will take until the middle of the day Monday for precipitation from a broad and fairly strong storm system moving to the Mid Atlantic Coast via the Tennessee Valley to reach southern New England. It will do so in the form of snow/sleet in parts of northern and central MA as well as southern NH with rain/sleet elsewhere. Eventually, rain will overtake the entire region through there may be some icing in areas of north central MA and southwestern NH where colder air is trapped at the surface. Not expecting this to be a widespread problem, however. The heaviest push of precipitation will be rain throughout the region Monday evening, but other waves of rain will occur into Tuesday as the low pressure center wobbles its way just south of New England. Finally, it’ll have pulled away Wednesday with dry weather, and a much weaker low pressure area will pass north of the region Thursday bringing no more than a few rain showers.
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially CT, RI, and southern MA. Areas of drizzle and a few snow flurries mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs 40-48 in the morning, cooling slowly in the afternoon. Wind light variable shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and patchy fog. Some freezing drizzle possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 31-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Rain mixed with sleet at times developing south to north mainly afternoon but some snow/sleet north central MA and southern NH to start with minor accumulation, then rain most areas afternoon except possible freezing rain in a few pockets north central MA and southwestern NH for a while before plain rain. Highs 35-43. Wind NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH by late in the day especially coastal MA/RI.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times. Temperatures steady 35-43. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, gusts 45-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, becoming more intermittent but with drizzle continuing later in the day. Patchy fog. Highs 39-47. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 35-42. Highs 45-52.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)
Fair, colder January 27. Risk of snow/mix at some point over the weekend of January 28-29. Mainly fair January 30-31.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Rain/mix possible early period then mainly dry weather. Temperatures return to a more seasonable cold.

147 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. TK any idea why the Nams on tropicaltidibts are showing so much more snow but on Pivotal the same models are showing next to nothing.

    1. I was just looking at the Euro where I can see 700mb temperatues.

      By the time the meat of the precip arrives, the 700mb temps are ABOVE freezing, while 850 and 925 remain below freezing. that would be sleet in areas where the 850 and 925 remain below freezing, however in all but well inland and up north, those levels go above freezing as well.

      So, my guess is that Pivotal factors that in while Tropical Tidbits does not.

      Remember Weatherwx said to ignore the 10:1 charts. Well certainly the
      Tropical Tidbits site. . The reality check is the kuchera method in these
      situations. Look at those for comparison.

    2. Nope. I’ll see if I can find out. I don’t look at snow maps all that much until we get really close to an event now and usually the very short range guidance.

  4. January 22, 2017 at 8:03 AM
    I was just looking at the Euro where I can see 700mb temperatues.

    By the time the meat of the precip arrives, the 700mb temps are ABOVE freezing, while 850 and 925 remain below freezing. that would be sleet in areas where the 850 and 925 remain below freezing, however in all but well inland and up north, those levels go above freezing as well.

    So, my guess is that Pivotal factors that in while Tropical Tidbits does not.

    Remember Weatherwx said to ignore the 10:1 charts. Well certainly the
    Tropical Tidbits site. . The reality check is the kuchera method in these
    situations. Look at those for comparison.

  5. Thanks TK.

    This is a highly anomalous situation unfolding across the eastern United States. Near record low pressure values for a non-tropical system over the Southeast. The SPC has issued a high risk for severe weather to account for the likelihood of a significant tornado outbreak over the Southeast today. High risk is rare under any circumstances, but one this far south, and at this time of year, is probably unprecedented. The storm will then turn up the coast of course, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with a hurricane force wind warning south of Long Island.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    1. Thank you very much, Wx. I have sent the link and your discussion to my sister in law. Who is in south Atlanta. I’ll send to my daughter for her to share with her inlaws in FL.

  9. NFC football game is going to be a shootout.
    AFC is going to be an old fashion smash mouth defensive struggle for at least the first half.

  11. My sister in law has plans to head to her bathroom. But it is on second floor of apartment building which I believe only has 2-3 floors. Would that be a good plan or would it be better to head to a downstairs hallway?

    2. That is a good question. What kind of apartment building is it?
      Wood frame? or brick with steel framing?

      To me, an inside hallway on 1st floor would be better, BUT please check with TK, Sak ans/or JMA to be sure.

      I’d never seek shelter in 2nd floor bath of any wood frame building. But that is just I.

          1. Well, that is good to know. Again please check with the experts, but to me that would confirm best place is an inside 1st floor hallway.

            She is on the South side of Atlanta? correct?

            Still only in the 15% circle. Worst activity expected way South of that area. you can see on the maps.

            1. She is about 10 miles south of Atlanta proper just on northwest side of Hartsfield Jackson. Thank you, JPD. She is alone and I tend to worry about her.

                2. My daughter will send the weather link to her inlaws in FL….ft Myers area…but their neighbor who is from Midwest said best place is in car with seatbelt on. There was something about windows either up or down and car maybe in neutral. The comment lost me after The words in the car

  12. 12Z NAMS show that the Pats game will be wet tonight.
    Can’t be sure of precip type, but likey Drizzle or very light rain, perhaps
    transitioning to snizzle or very light snow???

    This is stuff way out ahead of the main event, likely caused by 850mb flow off of the ocean.

    2. Hahaha. I decided yesterday I am comfortably nervous. And I’ll let you know what that means partway through the game. With any luck they can protect Brady so he hopefully doesn’t throw picks.

  16. What concerns me about the next storm …..

    Usually, you can count on having some chilly air in the boundary layer to help prevent full mixing of the low level jet down to the surface. But, especially near the coast, it should be relatively mild during this event. Also, I wonder if the intensity of individual waves of rain may add in mixing of wind down to the surface.

    1. I see some subtle signs that the cold in the middle levels may hold tough. Not that it would snow because of warmth at the 700mb level, but there may be quite a SLEET storm at least for the 1st 1/2 or more of the storm and Boston “may” just get in on some of it. We shall see.

      re: mixing down of the winds

      NWS has a HIGH WIND WARNING up for the Cape and Islands and a
      HIGH WIND WATCH up for the SOuth and North Shore, but oddly not
      for Boston just yet.

  17. Boston gets nothing but rain. If there is any sleet, it will be some inconsequential pingers. Decent beneficial rain event.
    I see nada for next weekend. Little colder but nothing out of the ordinary.

    1. Don’t be so sure of this. Boston “may” just sneak into a period of sleet which will still go over to rain later.

      1. When it starts as sleet in Boston it usually lasts no more than a few minutes…maybe longer during a transition from snow. Just my observation over the years fwiw.

        1. Except in a “Sleet” set up, which this “may” be.
          Not sure yet, just “may” be. Certainly it will be inland.

    2. It’s actually going to start flip flopping. The pattern is still going to flip to colder than it has been as we get into February, and probably March.

      1. Maybe, but color me touch skeptical.
        At any rate, I don’t expect the cold to be much different than normal climo.

  19. 11 already killed this morning from the tornadoes, 15 over two days. Not a good situation in the southeast today.

  20. Regarding the 28-29 potential snow, it certainly won’t be Saturday based on the tv mets 7-days. All have suns with temps in the 30s.

    1. I don’t base my forecast on TV 7-days, but yes I saw that. 😉

      I am actually leaning more toward Sunday myself at the moment.

      This is also not something I’m saying would be a “big storm”. If you noticed, the terms are used were “snow threat” or a storm system that can bring snow/mix. It’s still very much on the table at this point.

  22. The severe weather outbreak in the Southeast does NOT mean that the severe weather season in the US will be early, or worse than usual. If it is an active season it will be because of the overall pattern.

    We see anomalous events “off-season”. There were a cluster of them in the 1980s in the Deep South, in fact, in January and February. We have also seen November outbreaks during the “secondary max”. This particular set-up just happens to be about as perfect as it can get to produce spinners. Thankfully it is progressive at least and won’t be something hanging around down there for many days.

  23. JPD and SAK, my sister in law asked me to thank you both. She has a plan which makes her feel better and me as well 🙂

  24. Thank you, TK.

    Sad weather-related news from the southeast. I know this happens every year (though usually in March and April, not January), but any time it does it’s heartbreaking.

    1. Just wish it were a REALLY COLD high, which it is not.
      Colder air to be sure, but NOT enough to do the job in SNE, but
      “could” be enough for a decent SLEET SHOW, especially the interior.

  27. Some pictures of the Dutch doing their favorite activity on this wintry Sunday (well, wintry in Holland): skating on the canals. You can literally skate for hours in one direction as the canals traverse hundreds of kilometers of landscape. Why all the canals? Most of Holland is below sea level and was dredged to create land. The water has to go somewhere, and so the canals serve as tributaries carrying the water to rivers,a major bay in the north, and the North Sea. As the Dutch say, “God made the world, the Dutch made Holland.”

    http://nos.nl/artikel/2154319-in-beeld-veel-schaatspret-ondanks-waarschuwingen.html

    1. Praying that nothing materializes with that stadium full of fans. Not that I would want a tornado anywhere of course.

      1. Mrs. OS says the game should be postponed and she is wise.
        Let’s hope nothing happens there and nothing happens to the homes of the fans in attendance.

  30. Few ice pellets inside 495 early in the storm, otherwise not a sleet setup near the coast at all.

  31. Vicki very strong language in the discussion for the watch from SPC. Now you sit back and hope that what the SPC mention does not happen.

  32. After reviewing the latest info…

    No changes to the forecast for the upcoming event. A moderate impact event overall. High-impact would be localized.

    Snow threat still there for next weekend, leaning toward Sunday over Saturday. You don’t see it on GFS/CMC, and even ECMWF to some extent, but we can’t dismiss it.

    One or 2 very cold shot of air will likely usher in the month of February. This will introduce a new pattern that will be good for 2 to 3 weeks, relax, then return for another 3 to 4 weeks.

    1. Cross section of the atmosphere with temp profile forecast there. It’s like taking a slice looking at it from the ground from horizon up.

      Problem is I think that may be overdone.

  35. Bruins in Pittsburgh now. Usually good on the road but Pittsburgh is a great team this year.

    Can our teams beat Pittsburgh twice today?

    1. There is a very small area of convergence that produced a nice little batch of rain drifting SE though Boston. This is completely unrelated to the coming event.

      1. This is independent of the coming storm. The precip shield from that may not even arrive until almost dusk tomorrow in Boston, if not later.

  38. I’m having a good laugh over how badly they busted the snow maps on tropical tidbits.

    They should have left it alone, or tested it before they ran it real time. No excuse for letting such bad information out there because there are non-met’s running social media pages advertising a “colder solution” and changing their forecasts (that they should not be making or issuing). And people will buy it.

        1. If we have anything Monday afternoon it will be spotty drizzle, and sprinkles of rain or ice pellets and tiny flakes. The storm’s precipitation shield will arrive in Woburn between 5PM and 8PM.

  39. I find it painful to watch any championship game that is one sided. You know they are good teams and worked to get there. Perhaps packers can find their game at halftime

      1. The Bruins / Penguins game is a bit Twilight Zone.

        There was an ice issue by the wall with just under 7 minutes left in the 1st period, so after about 10 minutes delay trying to fix it, they decided to send the teams to the locker rooms and basically do the 1st intermission, then come out, play the rest of the 1st period, take a one minute break, and officially start the 2nd period. The Bruins trail 2-0 exactly half way through the game.

  40. Assuming the Packers don’t come back Pats or Steelers will have their hands full with Atlanta. Looking at how there playing I don’t think the Cowboys could have beat them the way there offense is clicking on all cylinders.

  41. Rodgers and Co. had their big game last week. Atlanta’s turn this week. That’s fine with me. The Pats have a great ability to maintain an even keel. Not many “Wow!” games, but they never let themselves fall completely out of a game like Green Bay probably just did, in the first half no less. I’d expect a tough game tonight, but I think the Pats win.

  42. When Mason Crosby missed the field goal in 1st quarter I said why could he have not done that in 4th QTR last week.
    My prediction for Pats Steelers game
    Pats 31 Steelers 20.

  43. Falcons Packers about like I thought.
    They had a 4 game losing streak against the Falcons Colts, Titian and redskins. Not exactly the iron of the NFL (except for Atlanta). And they barely beat the Bears.
    Atlanta is a better team.

  44. Love seeing Rodgers deflated. Guy has no fire. Brady gets mad and yells and gets fired up. Rodgers plays poorly and looks like he’s checked out.

  45. Well that was a 27 minute period essentially, and the last 5 minutes were very exciting. Penguins 2, Bruins 1. Very much in this one with one period to go.

    1. 4-1 Pens. B’s wake up!

      Well if we lose to a Pittsburgh team today it better be the Penguins, not the Steelers.

  46. Brady>Rogers
    Greenbay seems to be the team that does not have experiance in the championship…..Like I have said they have one or two lucky plays during the stretch of wins. Other than that the packers have stunk

    1. Well, I wouldn’t say they stink. They’re not a bad team. But your over all premise is fairly close.
      See, I agreed with you on something. 🙂 Sort of

  47. Claude may be let go after this game if the Bs lose badly. Even though, I think others should go , he will get the door.

    2. I disagree . Maybe at the end of the season not during . And if that happens he will have another head coach job by the end of the day.

  48. In terms of weather GFS for those North of the Pike and western mass. West of the I95 corridor.
    925mb below freezing till Tuesday evening. Stays below Northwest mass and north of rt2.
    850mb below freezing till Tuesday evening freezing mark makes its way all the way into Canada and out into NY state
    700mb below freezing entire storm.
    500mb above freezing most of storm.
    then what Ryan Hanrahan posted I believe this is a formula for sleet.

      1. wind chills in the 20s, so it will feel like it should be snowing but won’t… I hate this winter 🙁

  49. Hard to imagine a storm that will drop close to inches of rain on January 22-24th isn’t a snow storm. Shows you how warm it has been.

    1. I don’t find it that hard to believe. We’ve had a lot of January rain events in SNE over the years. Some real big ones early and late 1970s. A couple others in the 80s and a handful starting in 1990, which was the year of the warmest January on record up here.

  50. Atlanta is a very good and physical . Sure looks like they will represent the NFC. It’s funny this game was to be a shoot out between two quarterbacks not one QB.

  51. Flyod not active for the patriots I am very surprised as he shown greatness. In blocking and receiving.

  52. 00z runs will come in slightly warmer than the 18z. That will solidify the above forecast.

    Slowly but surely the medium range is starting to feel the potential threat for next weekend.

  54. Atlanta is going to be a handful in the Super Bowl. Watching the Pats game online since our CBS affiliate has been taking off the air for optimum customers since a dispute over money is taking place between the two parties.

  56. First half about as expected for me. Some good, some bad, a couple missed opportunities from both sides. Pats looked like the better team to me. Clean game. Any turnovers by either side in the second half could be fatal.

      1. With the nervous energy I have, I already folded four huge baskets of laundry. A friend suggested I tackle the boxes that are still in the unfinished part of the basement I’ve been saying I need to sort

            1. For what it is worth….I did fold the laundry but I am watching with a candle lit that I have for Mac so I was as confident as possible from the start 🙂

  63. Patriots played a great 60 minutes of ball . Impressive win all around . Should be a heck of a game against the BC fella.

  64. Good: Pats solid game.
    Bad: Bruins crappy game.
    Ugly: The fact that the snow maps have not been fixed on tropical tidbits web page.

  65. Ok, we need an all out blizzard for monday, February 6th so a snow day can be called at 6pm or 45 minutes prior to kickoff of the Super Bowl. Just like what happened 2 February’s ago. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3. Well we may get a dump of Arctic air to open the month. That’s what happened in 1978. 😉

      Of course that’s only one ingredient.

  66. Good morning.
    Tis snowing here. Very wet with temp fluctuating between 35 and 36.

    This is ocean stuff or otherwise some sort of conversion with 925 and 850 mb flow.

    However, currently the column is cold enough to support snow.

    looking at the hrrr, 850mb temps below freezing only until about 5pm
    925mb temps below freezing until beyond 11PM. I can’t tell if that cold layer is thick enough for sleet. could be. maybe not.

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