Tuesday Forecast

174 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
High pressure dominates today with dry weather. Low pressure approaches and moves through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night but the 2 main pieces of energy don’t link up until east of the Gulf of Maine, so we’re looking at a much weaker system than the last one. Upper level low pressure may kick off a few snow showers Thursday otherwise drier and colder for the end of the week but a quick warm-up starts on Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow before dawn. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of snow/sleet/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, but a period of snow may bring 1-2 inches to far northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Above normal temps overall, warmest to start the period. Next storm threat late in the period likely rain versus snow but will watch it.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Unsettled weather early to mid period favoring rain/mix as pattern will be milder.

174 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!!

    WSW issued again for Maine. Boy they have been under the gun for the last week. Models spitting out 8-12+ for a lot of that region. My in laws near Augusta reported around 26 inches in the last storm.

    2. I don’t mind either. I’m in the anticipation being half the joy mode. I’m loving the snow but am also looking forward to being able to get outside, watch our world wake up from its sleep and visit with nature.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK. Sorry I was mostly absent yesterday. We had a crisis at work. One of our food preparation vendors who provide meals to our elderly clients had a 3-alarm fire that destroyed their kitchen facilities. Therefore, we were scrambling to provide meals. Clients are issued emergency meals, but many clients being poor, end up using those emergency meals so when there is an emergency, they don’t have them.

    We ended up having another vendor provider us with frozen meals, but there was no one to deliver them. So 5 of us split up 48 meals and delivered them across the city.
    The other vendor will be able to deliver today, so it was a 1 day emergency stop gap
    effort, that was most successful. Many very thankful elders.

    I was delivering a meal to an elder\r at Mission Park Drive where there are many apartments, including a 13 and 25 story high rise. When I was near the high rise,
    the wind must have been 70 mph. It almost blew me over and I weigh 250 pounds!

    Neat miss with the next storm. I see a “Norlun” feature on the CMC and the EURO, but of course even if it materializes, destine to get Maine again and as TK says, perhaps graze NH sea Coast and Northeast MA. We shall see on that one.

    Here’s hoping it slips down to Boston. 😀 Yeah, fat chance of that happening.

    BEAUTIFUL Winter’s day to day. I rate it a 10 for Winter.

    1. JPD As I read your post, I felt an overwhelming sadness that anyone in this country struggles for his next meal mixed with a tremendous gratitude for folks such as you who are literally their lifeline. Is the kitchen repair work covered or do they need donations to help with getting it up and running?

      1. The vendor is insured and will be able to make repairs. In the meantime, they are procuring space elsewhere to continue operations. It will just take them a few days. Until then the other provider will assist. Thank you for you concern. Much appreciated.

  8. 12z 12k nam moves the norlun feature into northeastern ma tomorrow night…will see what the 4k and 3k say once they reach that range

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Hadi, you’re right about Maine. Cary, Maine received 30 inches from yesterday’s storm, and as soon as they clean up they’ll need to prepare for the next Gulf of Maine special. Cary’s closing in on 160 inches for the season and will likely surpass 200 by mid March. Not that unusual for that part of the world. Quebec City is in the 140 inch range already and is looking at a banner year in terms of snow. Note, this winter has not provided much truly frigid air up in Southern Quebec or Northern Maine.

    I’m with JPDave on today being a `10.’ In my book it’s the most glorious weather that exists, with a sunny 65F day in mid October being a close second. The snow and ice cover just make today all the more beautiful. I wish it would stay like this … Alas, 40s and drab (gray and clouds) are coming next week.

    2. WOW!!

      It caught me interest when I briefly saw that feature on the Euro and the CMC.

      I was wonderting what this morning’s NAMs would show. Been really busy at work and haven’t a chance to look in on those.

      Thank you.

          1. We were tracking Monday’s for days and days and most of the backlash missed ….

            Watch this one’s backlash trend west at the last minute 🙂

    1. Thanks Tom. Truly an interesting day, to say the least.

      With the snow, finding a place to put the car was a challenge.
      My vehicle became a Bull Dozer.

  13. Was I dreaming this morning when I looked at the models. When I look know I don’t
    see any Norlun, but rather a backwards extension of the snow from the developing
    storm off shore, a backlash if you will and we know what happens to forecast
    backlashes, don’t we??? 😀

    1. JJ, as I believe Retrac posted yesteday, when it gets going at this latitude,
      it is pretty tough to get snow to cover all of SNE. Usually it clobbers Maine
      and once in a while gets NE MA and even less often All of Eastern MA. You will be shut out of this one no matter what happens.

      Here is Eastern MA, we have a slight chance. 😀

      1. Are you talking about tomorrow because I highly doubt any snow around here ( maybe a flurry ) get ready for a warm weekend February is half over .

        1. Yes we are. It’s all speculation because highly likely
          NO SNOW at all or virtually none.

          However, those NAMs gives a bit of pause.

          We shall see what the rest of the 12Z guidance shows and especially tonight’s 0Z guidance. 😀

  17. GFS shows nada for us, but it’s the GFS so as usual within a couple days I will rely more on the short range guidance.

        1. Believe me JP could find snow on Venus ha. Not a shot JP I admire your commitment to finding snow whenever you can ha.

          1. and you find every chance to find overly exaggerated warm temperatures and rain, everyone has preference. Everyone has their preferences and wants, You have most of the year, Winter is for winter. Summer is for Summer.

  25. The only thing I see of any threat of some wintry precipitation for SNE is the 12z EURO at hour 216 at tropical tidbits site. More than likely interior has best shot for wintry precipitation 998 mb east of the Cape and Islands.

  27. If I were forecasting for SNE, given this setup and some of the model trends today, I’d at least be a little nervous if I were working off the assumption that this is mainly a miss. I think there’s an increasing risk for a burst of accumulating snow across east coastal MA, including Boston, late tonight/early tomorrow morning. This may be one of the few occasions where we get an inverted trough, or something resembling one, that means business. Higher risk remains to the north, in Maine especially, but the concern to the south is potential impact on the Thursday AM commute.

    2. Agree. It doesn’t have to be a foot of snow to impact the commute.
      The 2 or so inches depicted by the Euro for Boston could do the trick.
      I do not believe that the Mets will discount that Euro. It WILL get their
      attention.

      Shall be interesting to see how it plays out.

      18Z Nams coming out soon, but the better idea will be presented by
      tonight’s 0Z runs. Even so, I really want to take a look at them. 😀

  29. Could we be looking at a miracle here like the Pats 25 point comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl.

    1. Now the issue isn’t the precipitation, it’s the precipitation type.
      The Euro showed it as colder. We shall see.
      Can’t rule it out just yet.

      1. In later frames, the NAM shows it as having gone over to snow.
        My experience says it goes over to snow SOONER than modeled.
        We shall see.

        Btw, who know IF the NAM is correct anyway, but these maps
        are eye Candy, considering what we thought was going to
        happen last evening.

      2. Now all we need is a retrograding Low – often a feature in late March and April. Ain’t going to happen, of course, because there’s nothing in place to block this Low’s northeast path. It looks to really develop northeast of us and scoot on towards the Maritimes in a hurry.

  32. Now we see what 0z runs say later on. Hope you cash in on this up there. Even with the shift in the 18z NAM I’m still left out.

    1. I don’t think your area was ever in play, sorry. Hope for a miracle. 😀

      3KM NAM, not so bullish as it wants to keep bulk of precip off shore.

  33. I always hold out hope for a last second miracle.
    I am wondering if I could get some wintry precipitation from what the 12z EURO was showing at hour 216.

  35. FWIW, the latest SREF Ensemble Mean has 1.45 inches for Boston.

    Well, that’s NOT zero. So let’s see what the 0Z runs have to say.

    We’ll have fun tomorrow. 😀

  37. Harvey has Boston now in the 1-3 inch range.

    12-18 WSW for Central Maine again, unreal 10 days they have had up there.

  39. Eric Fisher Twitter:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 59m59 minutes ago
    More
    Then the NAM shows up with some fireball…lookin’ to mix it up. A trend or an anomaly? Tomorrow night not set in stone yet.

  40. Did the 12z Nam hint of more snow in SNE and then 18z trend more towards to snow? Just trying to see if it’s been a gradual trend towards more snow or A jump.

  42. Sprinkles of rain followed by some snow flakes from tomorrow afternoon through Thursday morning, yes. But, I’m very skeptical about accumulating snows south of, say, Gloucester. I’d love to see a surprise, and we may see some potent short-lived snow showers on the back end of this deepening system. However, temps are too marginal in my view to support accumulation even if the snow showers hit.

  43. FWIW, the experimental 36 hour 18z HRRR does not support the NAM at all. Much more in line with the GFS. The RAP, while not really in range yet, also does not appear to be lending support to the NAM.

  44. Before you get too excited about the 18z NAM, the 12km and 4km are bogus. The 3km is closer to reality.

  45. I have a feeling that this winter is going to be in two parts. the one that we are coming out of, then one in March where it might not be bitterly cold but the cold is supplied to the north and when storms come up the cold pumps into the storm for a series of good snows last week of FEB-first few weeks of march. Before a period of Icky mud season for April.

    1. I only partially agree with this. I think sometime between the last week of Feb and the end of the first week of March we’ll have a short-lived period like the one we just had. Then it goes dry.

  47. I’m appalled at WGBH firing Mish Michaels for stating her views on climate change and vaccines. See link to Globe article below. While I like some of the programs on WGBH and often cannot stomach what the networks offer (as an infrequent TV viewer – maybe a couple of times a week – I don’t have cable so that’s what I’m left with), I do not like left-wing intolerance. Nor do I like right-wing intolerance. On both sides of the aisle we’ve got plenty of intolerance these days, which makes real debates impossible. It is a terrible shame, and I blame it as much on Trump as I do people on the left who stifle debate.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/02/13/why-weather-forecasters-question-climate-science/h93iEPs3YSwxPLJ58gWCxJ/story.html?s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending

    1. Although I don’t necessarily agree with her position, she should not have been let go.
      That is wrong. I met her years ago. She is good people.

        1. Yes, I agree with you.

          I disagree with Mish Michaels on vaccines and climate change, but we need a healthy discussion that includes differences of opinion.

          I’m utterly fed up with Trump’s quashing of media dissent, and his authoritarian demand for loyalty. It’s both juvenile and wrong. But, l’m also very dismayed when the left uses political correctness or the guise of PC to stifle dissenters. It’s intolerance, pure and simple.

          1. This is true. I wish it wasn’t that way. I wonder if she worked for a conservative network and held very liberal views of climate change would she have been fired?

    3. She probably did not do her research….. When you make a claim like that show your source. Do the research.

      1. The problem is, not all research is created equal. All research can be manipulated to prove many different hypothesis.

        1. All research goes through questioning and is repeated by experts of that field (peer reviewed). Biology, chemists, Physics all of them are given that respect. Climatologists/ Environmental scientists (not activists) are not given that respect because of special interests. coal, oil etc. So you have people that are not experts in the field releasing bogus shit giving a little bit of another view point that has no merit in the scientific community of that field. Meteorology is not climatology, probably gonna get alot of shit from some of you but I honestly hope you know the difference between the two.

          1. Must we go through this same tired stuff week after week? We get it, you believe in man made global warming, or what ever it’s called this week, some of us don’t.

            1. not global warming… Climate change, You can tell between the environmental scientists and the environmental activists with that term. Both have merit but the scientists use climate change or the phrase change in temperature. Change in climate etc.

  49. As much as I don’t like it I’m kind of glad Julian went to the bruins number one enemy Montreal Canadians as he can now stick it up the ass of bruins management.

    1. Loser organization. Montreal hasn’t won anything in years and that will continue even under Julien. Not worried one bit.

        1. Lol, I hear ya kid. I don’t think he was the problem. Kinda like when they let Francona go several years back, the team needed a change, a new voice. I think this will be good for the team long term. Now they need to clean house in the front office…

          1. I hear that. As bad as I hate it, Cam needs to go too. Actually, new owenership would help. But that’s not gonna happen.

            1. If you know you are not going to agree with Matt, which is certainly your right to and there’s nothing wrong with that, then why do you clearly keep reading his posts ????

                1. Sorry, it’s time you and Weatherwiz gave it a rest with Matt. I for one am sick of it and I know have way more backing on that than you’ll ever have.

    2. I feel the reverse. I can’t wait for Julian to FAIL MISERABLY in Montreal.
      He was the WORST COACH in HOCKEY HISTORY!
      Now ask me how I feel about that. 😀

      Isn’t it funny once he was gone they started winning? Coincidence? I think not.

  50. No politics, please??
    I kept my mouth shut for years and now I finally have a guy I voted for and support. There’s plenty of forums to bash the president. I don’t need to see it here please.

      1. Your’re opinion because your a left wing liberal. I like the the president. He’s doing a fine job.
        I ask again, kindly leave the politics off here.

        1. Joshua went after both sides, this is not my opinion it’s what anyone reading Joshua’s comment will understand it to be.

  51. 0z Nam does not back down one bit…that has to at leaSt give you pause tk…..the 3k Nam not far enough out but still seems at odds with its brothers

      1. You are correct south of the north shirebit has reduced amounts, i was too focused on my area up here in NE ma

  53. Thanks Tom,
    With the firing, it is appalling if it is in fact because of her views. But I think there is more to the story that is not being told I have a feeling she did not support the claim with evidence. The majority of meteorologists are on “conservative” networks. Just like you do not hear climate change on conservative networks, you generally do not hear deniers on liberal media. Then you have the few in the middle media outlets that either stay away from the topic all togeather, or leans toward human caused climate change.
    Joshua brought up great points showing wrongs done by both sides. Blackstone, Yes Tk has said to keep politics off the blog, but that would mean anything that is anything to do with the enviornment/ climate if it included anything that is related to politcs.Its unfortunate that climate science and enviornmental sciences and ecology has gone political, we do not have the luxury of biologists, chemists, etc. Reasoning is because people have different interests and ideas based on people that are not experts putting false information and people over doing it back in the 90s. What we are doing will influence people, some people more than others. Its part of the fight and what people need to learn is that we need to hope its not to late to teach and show people the effects of climate change. We need to stop showing the cute polar bears up in the arctic or the penguins because the people who care about the animals already know what we are doing is shitty. The people that do not care will start to care when they figure out that it will effect their pocket. Look up GPI and get back to me.

  54. Well, the 00z GFS, while not bringing much snow to Boston or points south, has certainly shifted south with minor accumulations as compared to its 12z run earlier today.

        1. While 850mb is usually a decent barometer for rain/snow, when the column is above 0C all the way up to 900mb, and sfc temps are in the mdidle to upper 30s, it usually means you’re going to have rain and not snow, especially when precipitation is fairly light like it will be today.

      2. Lower atmosphere, from just under 850 down to the surface will be warm enough to melt the flakes before they reach the surface. But the temps will not be too far away from snow-supporting, which is why it can flip over real fast when winds shift later at night, provided there is moisture for precipitation in a given area.

  57. As pretty much predicted by TK, the NAM has come back to Earth with the snow. I mean really! wow! what a reversal.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017021506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    0z euro still has 2.4 inches for boston, ha ha

    And the GFS is almost identical. finally some model consensus, of course in the wrong direcion, but model consensus just the same.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017021506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

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