Wednesday Forecast

168 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
If you’re looking for details on the snow/mix/rain threat for Friday and Saturday you’re come to the right place, and the wrong place. I’ll tell you what I think may happen, but you won’t get snowfall numbers from me until at least later today in comments and more likely tomorrow morning on the new entry. Why? Because I don’t know yet. First, let’s back up to today, which starts cloudy and damp but dries out as a north wind develops behind departing low pressure. Clouds will remain dominant but should start giving it up to more sun eventually. Thursday will be the “pick of the week” of you like fair weather as a narrow area of high pressure provides that. Low pressure approaches from the west Friday and will pass just south of New England Friday night and Saturday as it redevelops there. This will bring widespread precipitation including snow/mix/rain. Still working on details of how this system will impact this area specifically, but for now it looks like the greatest chance for accumulating snow will be Friday evening and night, away from the South Coast, and over higher elevations. Improvement is attempted on Sunday but may be thwarted by an additional disturbance bringing a chance of rain/snow showers to the area.
TODAY: Starting overcast with areas of fog. Breaking clouds, eventually more sun late especially west of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 22-30. Highs 46-53.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain develops day, continues at night when the greatest threat for snow is. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain mainly early morning then mostly mix/rain tapering off to drizzle. Lows 30-37. Highs 37-44.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-47.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)
Pattern remains unsettled and cooler than normal. Next storm threat comes April 4-6.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)
Unsettled and cooler than normal pattern continues for this period as well.

168 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Thanks, TK. Yes, during a March like this we tend to forget that it’s March and we’re nearing the end of the month. Remarkably, this month will probably go down as the coldest of the winter months: Colder than December, January, and February. But, it will not set records. My mother reminded me of how cold March of 1960 was. She remembers because she gave birth to my sister that month.

  3. So 2017 celebrates a 20, 30 and 40 year anniversary of some memorable storms that range from April to May. Nice.

    1. Years ending in 7 tend to have some wacky things happen in the Spring. Memorial Day of 1967 saw snow as far south as the Monadnocks with the White and Green Mountains getting buried. The of course there was the Patriots Day Nor’easter in 2007. Heavy wind-swept rain in Boston (it was a miserable Day to be at Fenway or our watching the Marathon), with heavy snow well inland.

      So, now that we’ve accounted for 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, and 2007, what will 2017 bring?

  5. I don’t have a clue as to any totals yet but if I was a gambling man I think we will see snow maps from meteorologists today that will draw Boston in the 2-4 range. They will use keywords and phrases like “wintery mix”, “timing” and “this is not like the April Fools storm of 97”. They will sigh, look earnestly at the camera and say “I believe the Bruins will go all the way to the playoffs.”

    Thanks for the post TK. You’re a charm. 🙂

    1. I very much enjoy your posts Dr. S. You have been such a breath of fresh air on this blog. 🙂

        1. Nothing could be further from the truth. I enjoy all of the contributors on this blog. I’d be lost without your posts JPD!

        2. Hey, some people enjoy chopped liver. It’s a delicacy in certain countries.

          I’m more like that can of air Mel Brooks huffs in Spaceballs.

      1. All TV meteorologists have stock in Hood milk and Wonder bread. It’s in their interest to hype this up.

          1. Yes that’s it . I’m sorry I nearly pee my pants I laugh so loud . My sister posted that the last storm and myself and the guys were having a blast with it . Last night I was viewing it again and another Clip of this guy came up as he was in his wife’s keyless car ( lots of swearing but again I was on the floor . I can’t find it now . Good job old salty.

      2. Will the media hype it up or will the people not listen. That is the age old question of which came first. I’m putting my money on the people.

      1. This is the kind of stuff I saw on the news last night while compiling maps: http://imgur.com/RY4KT1g

        You see the day colored in a red alert and you see blue hues covering the landmass… Add a dash of April Fools 97 nostalgia and you’ve baked a delicious hype pie. 😉

  7. I remember the 5/10/1977 storm it was my father’s birthday and I was pretty young. Next year is the 40th anniversary of the Blizzard of 78 remember no school for weeks.

    1. May 10th is my mother’s birthday, too!

      “Lovethesunshine” is a great handle, just as “Here Comes the Sun” is a wonderful song. During periods like this in SNE, especially at the coast, it’s hard to imagine what the sun looks and feels like. So, I like to play that song over and over again in my head. Tomorrow the sun will make a cameo appearance only to disappear again for days on end. Early this morning at `sunrise’ it looked like a day in the Scottish moors: Gloomy, dark, forbidding, like an Edgar Allan Poe story.

    2. I remember it because my cousin’s birthday was 5/9 and of course the storm covered both his and your dad’s birthday. And I remember the 4/29 storm because it was my brother’s birthday. I lost both my brother and cousin in 1995. Both loved storms so it is a nice way to remember them.

      I have no connection with 4/1 other than April Fool’s day and my own great memories.

      I love your name….Lovethesunshine. Joshua, I am now humming Here Comes the Sun!!

  8. Chopped liver’s great. And so is stale bread when you make french toast.

    Dr. S, your posts are great and humorous. Indeed, a breath of fresh air. So long as you can take a stale old chopped liver fart like me things will be okay on WHW.

    1. hahaha – I’m older and staler and so far Dr S has put up with me so I’d say you are good to go, Joshua.

    2. Thanks. I feel that this community is like cocktail peanuts because you’re all complimentary and I really love the salty ones. 😉

  9. I have mentioned before after my family moved from the midwest my first weather memory of SNE was the May 1977 snowstorm. Holds a special place for me as it kicked off a my fasication with weather that has never ended.

    Interesting set up coming. Early thoughts –

    Snow with any real impact for coastal areas just doesn’t seem to be on the table. Easterly wind / SST’s / BL / time of year issues will combine to defeat accumulating snow near the coast.

    Inland its gets more complicated.

    Valley temps will be in the mid to upper 30’s, higher terrain in the low 30’s. Plenty of liquid to work with and periods of potential high intensity precip rates will help to cool the surface temps along with a low level ageostrophic (northerly) flow. However, there will be a fight going on. A mid level (light) east to south east flow will be trying to work above the the low level currents with warming taking place at 800, creating the potential for sleet. Then most of the snow growth area will be at 500-600, but the strongest lift will be below that. So combine the above mentioned set up with BL temps that will be at or above freezing you will have additional melting and realized ratios issues that are uncommonly low, so even snow that falls has a ratio akin to sleet with a super wet / dense snow.

    All this means an early outlook of no meaningful snow accumulation or impact in coastal locations. A potential for a light accumulation event in valley locations and a higher impact moderate accumulation event including on the roads in higher elevations.

    4. Great post. Definitely agree with the coastal observation but I still do not envy the jobs of TV mets who are held to this “get it precisely right three days in advance” standard… When if they could read and understand posts like this they would see just how many factors need to be considered.

  10. 12z NAM on cod site showing ice accumulation for Berkshires parts of CT and around the Worcester area with majority of the ice accumulation during the overnight. This model for a few runs has been showing this icing potential.

  12. Were getting into that time frame where NAM does better. It picked up on that low tracking closer to the coast with that storm we had two weeks ago within 24-36 hours of the event.

  15. Back in 1997, Boston was probably no more than 2-3 degrees from 2.54″ of a chilly nasty rain. Temps most areas were very borderline IIRC. I don’t believe any location fell below 30F.

    Do the math above. 2.54″ x 10 = 25.4″

    1. Someone else mentioned it being warm before. I don’t recall either. All I recall is having no power for four days and then being upset when the power returned. For some reason my entire family laughed at me. To this day, I have no idea why 🙂

  17. 12Z GFS more bullish for mostly frozen precip, albeit wet and dense.

    Just for kicks, I’ll post a map shortly, if someone else doesn’t already do it. 😀

    1. Shows a pretty wavy 850MB 0C line mostly staying South of Boston.

      Remember, JMA mentioned a warm layer at 800MB, which is a little higher up
      in the atmosphere than 850, abou 7,500 feet or so. Unfortunately the atmosphere does not conform to our bucket mb levels. We can use the 850mb as a guide, but it doesn’t necessarily tell the whole truth.

  19. FWIW and I have no idea of the snow algorithms but the 9Z SREF Plumes
    (Ensemble mean) shows 3.05 inches for Boston.

  20. 12z NAM aggressive with the ice accumulation for parts of the interior. 12z GFS aggressive with the snow for parts of the interior. One thing that they both have in common most of the wintry precipitation whether its ice or snow happen in the overnight.

  21. I am hoping the GFS ends up being right with the snow. Don’t want the ice the NAM is showing. It could get very interesting for my area. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    If the GFS is right we’ve got significant accumulation of snow even near the the I-84 corridor Friday. We’re watching closely.

  22. Couple tweets
    Bernie Rayno
    Injection of colder air and a southern track of storm Fri means only one thing. Several inches of snow for New Eng.Snow to rain further S

    John Homenuk
    While front end wintry precip certainly possible in higher elevations Fri/Sat, careful with snow forecasts. Huge mid level warm layer.

      2. Mike Wankum looks the same…what channel was he on back then? Harvey looks shocked in that capture, LOL.

    2. Thank you SAK.

      Wondering who the “We’re” is coming from when in the forecast?
      Isn’t that your forecast? 😀

        1. cats are awesome assistants 🙂 Mine is always next to me when I am doing homework, including calc, to think anything would want to be near me when I am doing math.

          1. I would love a cat. Except I am allergic to them. A photographer friend on FB volunteers weekly at a local shelter to take and post pictures of cats up for adoption. I sigh as I go through the pictures.

          2. Friday is most definitely not a he. When I get home at 4am, she’s usually waiting at the top of the stairs for me, begging for treats.

  26. Well, I think I’m accepting of the idea that the sun may make a brief appearance later today down here by the coast, otherwise its been yet another cloudy day.

  28. Couldn’t stop laughing from that video about “bread and milk”. Thanks, OS.

    But the bread and milk thing – do people really do that when a big snowstorm is on the way? I can understand the bread – but what if the lights go out? Your milk isn’t so good. Unless you have a generator. I have seen before a big snowstorm people loading up on frozen goods. Can’t understand that one! Tuna, peanut butter, etc. makes more sense. And I suppose a bottle or 2 of wine is nice – ‘though we don’t drink.

    Sun is trying to come out in Sudbury.

    1. It’s one of those things infused with our psyche because of storms like the blizzard of 78 when people were trapped in their houses for days. In the 50s Pittsburg had a massive storm too that saw a milk shortage. So, even though modern snow prediction and removal techniques have improved preparedness – it is something that has become instinct as a just in case. As for the frozen foods or even refrigerator type stuff – people don’t really plan for power outages as far as I’ve seen. They just have the trapped inside fear. This is why toilet paper is another big storm seller. Canned goods also do spike in sales but not as much likely because people already have a stock of the canned goods they like.

      1. Thanks for the reply. I’ve noticed when I’m at the market (always curious what other people buy!) that not many people buy canned goods as much as they used to years ago – stormy weather or fair weather. People nowadays, in my opinion, anyway, opt for frozen or fresh. In any case, thanks again. Love your posts! Did you ever consider being a comedian? 🙂 You would be great! But, then, we wouldn’t have you on WHW!

        1. I’ll always have time for WHW. To answer your question – I try to inject humor in my normal writing. I was in an improv comedy troupe once upon a time. Now I just focus on helping other writers write with my site and my book (hopefully books with an s in the near future.) Glad I can entertain. 🙂

      2. For what it is worth….which is a plug nickle…..I think it is wise for folks to always have a limited but varied amount of provisions on hand. We live in funny times and it just doesn’t hurt. Power outages in a winter storm leave you with no excuse for food to go bad. You have natural refrigeration in the snow. In summer it is a bit trickier, but if you know it is coming, it is fairly easy to prepare for.

        As far as preparing for a snowstorm, what is this “trapped inside fear” you mention ?? Would it surprise anyone here to know I have an electricity failure plan that works quite well. The only darned problem is my electricity isn’t going out often enough so I don’t get to put the plan into motion as much as I’d like.

        It is all about making it an adventure!!

    2. If it’s a snowstorm, you can keep the milk for a long time by shoveling snow
      into a cooler. 😀

        1. Hmm, some people may do that! My mother-in-law used to keep her soup out on the porch on cold days overnight because she didn’t have room in the refrigerator!

          1. We kept our entire Thanksgiving dinner on the porch until about 10 years ago when the seasons started to shift (see how I snuck that in there), and it was no longer cold enough outside at Thanksgiving to keep it safely. It was a great way to not jam up the fridge.

            We did use snow during the Halloween storm to keep things cold, but that was one of the times I got to put my warmer weather plan into motion.

  29. The 12Z Euro is in. Brings system right a long our South Coast, just a tad too far North
    for SNE snows. Cut off is “about” the MA pike, actually a bit North of there.

    Here is the map

    I guess not. Imgur at it again.

    Worcester 13.3
    Boston 1.9 before rain and 1.1 after for a total of 3 inches.

      1. if there is a heavy band situation, it would not be. The heiver precip could help bring down colder air.

      1. Yes sir and thank you.

        I just didn’t have the patience to keep refreshing the page or otherwise reloading. It works great when it works, but sucks when it doesn’t. Sort of like everything else.

  30. they valleys in Western mass look to have a possible ice situation with higher elevations looking to have moderate snow event and coastal areasseeing a light to marginal moderate snow event north of the pike.

  33. Glad I held the clouds in for today. Most of the TV guys were talking up sunshine. Not sure where they saw evidence of a lot of sun today. I know I didn’t.

    2. We had a few breakthroughs this am. Just enough, literally, for me to see if the new glasses got darker in the car. Then poof. Now it is a lovely blue behind the billowy clouds. I went into a store and the owner greeted me with a smile and asked where the beautiful day we had been promised was. I wrote down the address for WHW 🙂

    4. Sun was out for a few hours in Merrimack, NH. It’s cloudy now, but I can see some blue sky through the breaks in clouds.

    5. You’re right on target!! Sun came out partially here for about 5 minutes and that’s it. 😀

  34. And yes, I still have the same concerns for the upcoming system, especially Friday night. But the temps aloft will play a role. We will see just how.

    I’m not ruling out over 1 inch of snow for Logan at this point.

              1. Who says? Oh John says. Sorry
                I didn’t understand.

                It may not but I would not discount it just yet.

    2. Should Logan get that inch, I believe I win our snowfall contest, at least for Boston. Can you check, Vicki? 😀

    3. SAK indicating in some places there might be a lot of sleet.
      Do you concur?

      btw, I am not suggesting that in Boston even though Boston “could” see some sleet.

        1. In other words it could be a sloppy mess, especially N&W of the City. We shall see.

          A little change in track to the South could make all of
          the difference in the world. So close.

          Nam seems somewhat in agreement with the EURO.

          Who knows what the GFS will show. It has been showing more in the way of Wintry precip.

  36. FWIW,
    The latest 15Z SREF ensemble mean shows 7.33 inches for Boston with a low of 0.0
    and a High of 22 inches.

    1. WTF is the 0X line? Sounds like some sort of special fishing line.

      Can we say 0C isotherm at 850mb?

    1. I’m surprised it’s not starting with coating and up. I’m just guessing here and will try to get more information tomorrow as we get closer I’m just not buying into this and again egg in my face if wrong .

    1. I love that you do this. And in case you don’t already know it,
      We ALL very much appreciate your efforts.

      May I say this one thing that I can’t resist.

      The snow amounts are ALL OVER THE MAP!

      1. Thanks for the comment it means a lot. Especially after the day I’ve had.

        Love the punny observation 🙂

  44. Too much hype regarding the upcoming storm, at least for coastal locations. What else is new? I do think some `hype’ would be warranted if tomorrow’s models show some consistency. But right now I’m not feeling it. This said, the storm could produce major headaches for inland locations. The snow will be nice to see, but it will be of the heavy and wet kind which tends to bring down electrical power lines, tree limbs, etc … There would also appear to be quite a bit of liquid precipitation involved in this one, so locations that get all snow could be in for a humdinger of a storm. The wildcard for Boston is whether there’s just enough cold air from the north and from the intensity of the storm itself and the precipitation to produce heavy snow Friday night. April 1, 1997, had to be `just’ right in this regard, as someone posted earlier. On March 31, 1997, Boston started out with very heavy rain which changed to extremely heavy snow overnight. Temps were marginal, yet supportive of accumulating snow. From what I can assess with my amateur mind this storm is: a. not nearly as strong as the 1997 system; b. not as much cold air will be pulled in from the north, at least not at the coast.

    1. Joshua,

      Nice discussion, but I tend to disagree on 1 point.

      I do believe that there is probably just as much cold air with this one.
      I believe that the intensity will not be as great, so it will snow but not
      accumulate as much.

      I don’t like what the NAM is doing and the NAM is now just about in it’s
      wheelhouse. We’ll see what the 0Zs do.

  45. SAK, I want to thank you for your always informative posts and blog!

    Dr. S, thanks again for the around the dial forecasts. I think they’re underestimating the potential for 12+ inches in some inland locations. Of course, much will depend on ratio’s which this time of year tend to be low. One thing is guaranteed, this will not be an April 6, 1982 scenario with powdery snow and temps n the 20s during the day.

  46. 18Z GFS Kuchera snow.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017032918&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    10:1

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017032918/090/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    This run keeps the 0C 850 line SOuth of Boston for the entire event.

    Looks like boundary layer temperature issues for the City and or perhaps some sleet
    cutting the accumulations down.

    I want to see if the other models come around to this OR the GFS backs off.
    If it doesn’t, looking mighty interesting.

    1. Thanks, JP Dave. I think this map may well turn out to be accurate. Take a look at some of the snow totals in the Berkshire region. It may be a major storm out there.

  47. Also I wouldn’t put much stock in any model forecast today let’s see tomorrow’s runs.

  48. I’m listening to the credence Clearwater pandora station. I had been singing here some the sun all day….and had just transitioned to Sweet Hitch Hiker when …….you guessed it….here comes the sun played. But it’s all right ….it’s all right !!

      1. I love it….the long version of grapevine played a bit ago. What do you use Alexa with for a speaker? I have the sonos wirelss system in the house and she is supposed to work with sonos at the start of this year but so far I don’t think they have it working

        1. Right now I am just using Amazon’s Echo speaker (Alexa is the voice controlled assistant) for music and audible books.
          My son has the Echo set up with several Dots through out his house which controlls his lights, fans, heat/ac and music and probably a few other things I’m not aware of 🙂 I know he just got a new app for charging his car battery, but I’m not sure if it works via the Home Hub or just from his iPhone.
          I think we’ve entered The Jetson’s Home or maybe the Twilight Zone 🙂 All so amazing!!

          1. Fun. I love that stuff. I don’t use a lot of lights nor do I turn heat on a lot so have not gen for the home controls. Kids gave me the echo for Christmas but I downsized to the dot and am glad since I don’t use her a ton but do find it entertaining.

            I have to set up my weather station first and then I can focus on Alexa.

  50. This pattern is just low, after low, after low, after low… you get the idea. 18z GFS has 5 significant storms affecting New England the next 16 days.

    1. Thank you, Dave.
      Certainly is interesting guessing where the driving will be better Saturday pre- sunrise going north– 95 to NH/ME or 93/ rte 2W toward VT.
      AccuWeather just upped the Friday Okemo snow forecast from 8-12″ to 12+
      I know it will be heavy but I’d like to play in it!

  53. I’ll be interested to hear people’s thoughts on whether this storm will affect Logan and flights in and out. We have some out of town colleagues in the office who are planning to fly out Friday afternoon. Hoping that works out okay for them.

      1. Amy I highly doubt any school would consider it say Boston & points south Down through the cape . But I guess no one will know till Friday , I would be totally shocked .

        1. I would say that any afternoon flights at Logan should be a-ok. The nighttime flights might be a different story though.

    1. Mixing overnight??? but it doesn’t look like straight rain ever makes it into the city by Harvey’s thinking.

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