Friday Forecast (Preliminary)

268 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
This is a preliminary post and will be followed later today but an updated one. For this post, there are not many changes being made except to shift the frozen rain/mix/snow line a little further south and tweak amounts accordingly. So, today still expecting precipitation to move eastward into the region during the day in a couple batches, fighting dry air, but with periods of snow, which will have difficulty accumulating when it falls as is typical for spring daytime snow. Most of this will occur in central MA and southwestern NH with a lighter mix/rain would likely occur in southern MA/CT/RI. Later in the day and into the evening a more solid area of precipitation is likely to move in from west to east, peaking during the overnight hours. During these hours is when the position and movement of the rain/mix/snow areas are most critical as this is when most of the snow accumulation would occur. It continues to be most likely that the most significant snow accumulation will occur away from the immediate coast and favor the higher elevations especially from central MA into southwestern NH, but this does not eliminate the possibility of significant accumulation elsewhere. Still going with colder scenario overall with the rain / narrow band of sleet / snow line moving up into the Mass Pike zone with areas to the south mainly rain for the heaviest precipitation and areas to the north staying as mainly snow. During Saturday as precipitation gradually lightens then diminishes from west to east, colder air will push this line back to the south when most of the accumulation to the south of Boston may occur. Current call on total snow accumulation: Under 2 inches South Coast including Cape Cod, southern RI, and southern CT, 2-4 inches northeastern CT, northern RI, and nearby southern MA eastward to the South Shore up to about the Mass Pike, 4 to 8 inches just north of the Mass Pike to northeastern MA and NH Seacoast with the lower amounts favoring the coast from Boston to Cape Ann, and 8 inches or more north central MA into interior southern NH. Also looking for quite a bit of wind as the storm intensifies offshore Saturday with some minor coastal flooding at the time of the mid afternoon high tide. A weak disturbance will bring some cloudiness and possibly a passing rain/snow shower Sunday. High pressure moves in Monday with dry but chilly weather for the Red Sox home opener. But the continued active pattern allows the next storm to be here Tuesday with what looks like mainly rain but possibly some sleet.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of snow except mix/rain southern MA/CT/RI. Highs 34-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow except rain near South Coast then mix/change line advancing north into areas mentioned above. Lows 30-38. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Precipitation very gradually tapering off west to east with snow/mix/rain line moving back to the south with time. Highs 34-41. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH with gusts 40 MPH or greater coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows 30-38. Highs 38-45.
MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Lows 28-35. Highs 44-51.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and possible sleet arriving. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)
Another period of unsettled weather April 6-8 which may include some mix/frozen as well as rain. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)
A break in the active pattern as it turns drier but temperatures remain mostly below to near normal.

268 thoughts on “Friday Forecast (Preliminary)”

  8. Good morning and thank you TK for the detailed discussion.

    I saw some sprinkles of rain on the way in. Very clear that when it starts on the coast it will be in the form of rain. If it gets heavy enough, I presume it would mix and flip to snow. Time will tell.

    Watching that HRRR….

  9. Tom, thanks for posting the Mt. Washington weather site. My son just got a job working in the Lake of the Clouds Hut as part of their hut “Croo” so this will be a wonderful way for me to know what is going on in his world this summer. They are 10 days on and then four days off so keeping up will take all the help I can get!

    On a different note, I am not always able to post here as much as I would like too but what an amazing community this is and such a great source of information! That same son is driving to see a friend and then his sister in CT this afternoon and I have been basing my “parental advice” on when to leave by the Woods Hill info. Enjoy the white stuff this weekend!

    1. I would love to spend time on the top of that spectacular mountain. How great for your son and you get to enjoy his experience. Congratulations to him. I am hoping you will share his experiences here too!

      My kids used to ask where I was getting my weather information as it was often different from what they had seen on the news. Now they ask and all but one (the boy) typically will go by the timing given here. It sure is a great resource and it is always nice to see you here CC3!

    2. Awesome. best wishes for your son on that job.

      re: Mt. Washington
      My wife and I have climbed it twice from Pinkham Notch. At our pace it
      was a 4 hour climb. Pretty spectacular up there.

      At one point nearing the summit (Lions Head I believe) we could clearly
      see the Atlantic Ocean. Yes the visibility the 1st time we climbed it was
      other worldly. Vis 2nd time was dangerously low, like near 0 at times
      and we had no business climbing. Foolishness in my younger days!

  11. Radar says it is raining here, but I can’t see anything just yet. Streets are dry, so if there is something falling it is intermittent and very light.

  12. Most of my thoughts from 2 days ago have not changed.

    If you are above 1000 feet you are going to get a lot of heavy wet snow. The warm area is narrow but very present above 800 and to about 900-925 where it gets cold. Also warm at the surface currently about 5 plus degrees warmer than modeled and southerly flow has saturated the area more than I thought, DP’s have moved into the 30’s in much of the area. This combination of surface temps and narrow cold calculate out to a 1000 plus feet going to be necessary for significant accumulation.

  16. Sleet and snow mixed now and coming down hard. Deck is covered but roads are just wet. I should note we had about a tenth of an inch of rain earlier before it flipped over. Driving into the office now, I presume it will be all rain there.

    1. Thanks Stupid!!

      Sorry, couldn’t resist. I really do mean thank you.

      I wish it were a little colder. It’s 39 at my house in JP now (just checked my AcuRite) it was 41 when I left the house, so the light rain is having an effect already. may even be snow at home? I don’t know.

      Still, It looks like an interesting day with perhaps more sleet tonight than
      snow. From 850mb down to fairly near the surface it remains below freezing
      at least on the HRRR maps I have seen. That should spell sleet.

      Even if accumulations are a couple of inches, it will still be a mess with heavy snow and sleet.

      1. Thanks Stupid!! Sorry, couldn’t resist.

        No worries, the number of people who have said that to me has numbered in the high hundreds because I chose this as a “handle” in 1992 and have used it on BBS’s, AOL chatrooms, message boards, etc. – usually people would say it when I was proving an opinion of theirs wrong. Their fallback would be “now I know why you’re called stupid.” lol

        Back to the weather at hand: I am no fan of these tricky storms. Especially ones that can produce slop that is far more of a pain for removal. I guess on the bright side I’m in Hingham where it’s still a pretty good chance that my prediction that I wouldn’t see any more measurable snowfall is still in play.

  18. Although it looks heavier on radar, it is intermittent very light rain here.
    Streets are barely wet.

  20. Just like TK’s (and all y’all’s) forecasts stated,
    light little bit of everything falling in Middleborough.

    How’s that for a 14z observation, eh?

  21. 36 in Sutton now. Wunder says snow. Vicki says rain and if I try really, really hard, I might see a snowflake in there occasionally.

  22. Raining in Boston now . Heading home woke up yesterday with a cold and no sleep last night and feel very weak. Can’t work this one I feel horrible and we could have used the money. Anyways let’s see how this unfolds .

    3. Feel better, John. A lot going around still. Son has a nasty cold and was called in at 11:00 last night and will work through until late this pm. Glad it is the weekend for both of you.

      1. I just couldn’t stay Vicki I would have been there all night out in the elements and the way I feel now I just couldn’t do it. Getting soup now I’m going to flush this out of me . I’m just really frustrated would have been good overtime .

        1. You absolutely did the right thing. Although I understand the OT would be nice, health is more important. Wanted son to refuse OT but he doesn’t get a choice. You probably don’t want to hear my thoughts on that 🙂 Rest, drink, and lots of hot water, lemon and honey.

  23. HMMM

    The 12Z NAM is COLDER still. Quite bullish with snow, but of course some of that
    is SLEET.

    It has up front snow, then sleet (possible rain later), then sleet, then Snow again.

    NE MA, SW ME and Southern NH are in the bulls Eye of this run.

    Maps shortly.

      1. Sorry,

        I got called home. Damn squirrel(s) in the atic or walls scaring my wife to death. Of course when I got home I could hear nothing.
        I’m sure they are there. We just had major chimney work done
        and I think we enclosed one or more.

        I looked around and set a have a heart trap. Now we wait.

        1. I feel for your wife! I don’t mind the little critters, as long they stay where they belong, OUTSIDE!!!
          Good luck! 🙂

        2. We had mice in the old house. Compared to squirrels they are very small and I hated to hear them moving through the walls. I can’t imagine a squirrel. Tell Mrs OS I sympathize please.

  24. I was out and drove 1.9 miles down (rather up) the road to find snow. Elevation there is 475. Elevation here is 380. I returning thinking snow would have moved in at home address; but, while there is still wet snow at 475 foot elevation, there is still plain rain here and has yet to change according to daughter. However, at the 662 foot elevation (my destination and 6.2 miles from home), it was more sleet than snow.

    No particular reason for the post other than I thought it was interesting.

  25. We have had snow since around 8 this morning in Shrewsbury. It is only sticking to gras and roofs. There is nothing on the roads – just wet.

    1. I think you are about due north of me. I was also driving north this morning when it changed from rain to snow.

  26. REMINDER: Virtually no accumulation during the day today except briefly on “colder” surfaces.

  28. Will the 15F to 20F dewpoints in Maine become entrained into eastern sections later today? I notice that sub 30F dewpoints nose southwestward into Middlesex County.

    I understand that wont stop warming at 700 to 800 mb, but will it affect the boundary layer later in the event?

    1. light precip here, mix of rain and wet snow flakes.

      Temp has dropped from 42F to 38F on the bank clock across the street.

  29. TK, little accumulation I understand, how slippery will roads to Hartford be this afternoon? Should I encourage my son to leave ASAP or is 2:30 or 3:00 pm ok? I figure 3:00 pm beats most traffic as long as roads are not icing at all.

  30. Actually, I’m rethinking that 2 or 2:30 might be better as weekend traffic back to NYC might be worse with folks trying to beat the snow?

  31. It has been snowing In Roxbury and for about an hour now even with temp
    at 39 representing some colder air not too far above the surface. 😀

  33. Orange / Fitchburg / Lowell line north and east will be the most interesting part of this event. How much accumulates on all surfaces and how much snow vs sleet? I think even within a few miles of the coast could see significant variance east and north of that line.

    1. BIG flakes starting here as well. Causing temp to drop
      It has Plummeted all the way down to 38. 😀 😀

      1. Snow and rain mix here now. Temp. is 35. I think precip. is going to be all mixed up and changing ’til tonight, when temps. really drop. Then the snow . . .

  41. John, Take care! Wish I could send you some Dutch spring weather to cure your cold. Unfortunately, the technology isn’t quite there yet.

  43. 12Z RAP Kuchera snow through 9Z tomorrow

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017033112/021/snku_acc.conus.png

    Some of these models are beginning to lay it on pretty thickly and has the warm layer either not making it to Boston OR having stick around with a few hours of sleet before
    crashing SE again.

    I know the time of year, but I think there will be more snow/sleet accumulation
    than forecast. Beginning to look that way any how.

    BTW SNOW getting interesting here. 😀

  45. Latest Surface map.
    We can see the start of the energy jump to the coast.
    This is looking colder and colder to me.

  47. Does everyone here agree that schools should not be having early dismissals? The tv mets have been assuring that the roads will just be wet regardless of intensity during daylight hours.

    Even at the beginnings of the 1997 April Fools storm, it took a few hours for the roads to get slushy.

    1. I think it is a judgement call based on the knowledge of the experts in the towns/ cities. We just don’t know enough to critique. For larger areas, especially, I think making the call yesterday was very wise. An unexpected early release is much more difficult than a cancellation and late start in that parents have to be found or kids go home to no one. Either way, it counts as a full day. Nothing lost but perhaps much gained.

    2. They dismissed schools in Pelham, NH at 1:15pm rather than waiting until 2:30pm. They made the call about 2 hrs ago. Why? Really? The snow is not even accumulating on the grass. No met called for slippery roads until nightfall. My opinion but I don’t get it. Especially, when you are in the middle of it. I can almost understand making a mistake last night and calling it.

  48. I don’t how people know what to think. Wednesday this was a “nor’easter” on many of t.v. Weather forecasts. Yesterday no mention of nor’easter, today back to n’oreaster. Which is it? Many of my customers seemed to think they’d be waking up to a “big snowstorm” today. I can see how anyone would have acquired that impression from the hysterically hyped media forecasts that have been on all week.

    1. I’d be interested in a definition of a nor’easter. In my mind I think of a storm with winds out of the northeast and thought they could be year round. So does it always mean lots of snow? I didn’t think so but could be very wrong. I do believe there will be heavy winds at the coast later so was thinking that might be more of a parameter.

      That said, Dr S has been posting the predictions from all stations for days and they have been consistent. I really think it is a matter of people reading headlines, going no further and then Forming their own opinion…which is generally wrong

      1. People tend to give side glances to weather maps and half listen to the forecasts. They hear nor’easter, see some maps that have 12+ in certain areas and then make up the rest of the story. Then we have people mad at meteorologists for telling them they’d get over a foot in their area when the maps probably said three inches.

  50. M.L.: I think that nor’easter simply refers to the wind direction that is implied when a low pressure area moves just east of the Mid-Atlantic and SNE coastline. `Nor’easter’ lows can originate from continental systems (clippers) that move from west to east over land and then redevelop off the coast. Or, they can be Atlantic Seaboard coastal storms that start out as far south as the Caribbean. Of course as a low pressure area moves the wind direction changes. So when a `nor’easter’ begins to impact SNE our wind direction may be E/NE. Then as the low moves northward the wind direction changes to a northerly, and then finally a northwesterly as the system departs. The real experts should correct me if I misstated something.

  51. The main problem is many people can’t seem to break out of the mindset of expecting to “wake up to a big storm” that hasn’t actually gotten fully underway…

    I still don’t understand this.

  52. Looks like a snowy rain (rain with very large flakes) here in East Taunton right now. Very unpleasant looking outside.

  53. I’m talking more about my sense as a retail business owner of what the public seems to be thinking – at least what people express to me. I’m 50 years old. I don’t remember “weather” being the big deal when I was a kid that it seems to have come to be. I definitely remember getting out of school early before the blizzard in 1978 – but it could have been a half day anyway? I remember walking to school in all kinds of snow and it
    Didn’t seem to bother anyone. I don’t think I ever remember my dad not going to work because of snow. Now one or two inches might as well be one or two feet – a general shut down.

    2. Perhaps we are comparing apples and oranges in comparing two different time periods.

      Exponentially many more vehicles on the road versus then.

      Exponentially more threat of liability litigation now versus then.

      The economies are different and thus I’d guess there’s less adults NOT going to work now as compared to decades ago, so it might have been easier back then to get the students safely accounted back home.

      On the flip side, I do think there’s some truth to what you say. I like to use the thunderstorm analogy. Better dopplar radars now see every spinning motion in every thunderstorm and thus, I’m certain there are more tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings now than ever before. So, I think the technology being better gets people more time to think about preparation and actually do it.

      2. Yep, as always, Tom, you said it better than I did. Some truth in not being able to teach an old dog 🙂

    3. When I was a kid, I recall many snow days. I’m 67. But the impact to the family was not as widespread since the majority of mothers were home. I don’t know of anyone who doesn’t go to work for one or two inches. I actually don’t know anyone who doesn’t go to work period unless the governor orders people off the roads. It would be better if people did not. Traffic is far and away heavier than when I was a kid and when most of us here were kids. I recall when we moved to framingham in 1979 and worked in Watertown, Mac and I were home in 25-30 minutes and there was never a traffic am. Times are a changing.

      If people overreact to headlines, it is the people who are to blame. Not the Mets or the media. It happens across the board from politics to weather. That is what drives me nuts. And I suspect that may be what you are referring to, Mel. Somehow we seem to be dumbing down when it comes to the ability to comprehend.

  55. Back from Squirrel patrol. All I could do was look around. Didn’t find anthing.
    And set a trap. Hopefully, I nab the little sucker. I will release it if I do.

    Meanwhile the snow is picking up. No RAIN. No SLEET. Not where I am.
    Looks like it wants to “close In”. Visibility down to about 1 mile.
    Will need to get down farther than that to start any accumulation.

    Car therm was reading 35.

    Home is: 36.9 A tad too WARM, I’m Afraid.
    In a few hours, with The sun angle lowering AND the snow picking up,
    I would imagine temperatures would start approaching 32, at least 33 or 34, which
    would be cold enough to start the accumulation, imho.

        1. Snow here.

          I really believe our column in Marshfield and Boston is colder than where Vicki is. Not common, but true in this case.

          1. Makes it truly interesting, Tom. When we had the big flakes which lasted a while, I was on phone with daughter a couple of miles from here in Uxbridge and they had nothing but rain. Crazy day and I love it and that we can share the differences here.

        2. SIL has been working in Boston today and said has been snowing on and off all day. Not rain. He was surprised his home in Uxbridge has only seen rain.

  57. I don’t know what it portends if anything ….

    Comparing the new EURO’s 12z, 00hr 850 mb temp to yesterday’s 12z 24hr 850 mb temp, and the 850mb -5C contour running through east-northeast Massachusetts appears to be about 25 to 30 miles further SOUTHWEST than yesterday’s run.

        1. Btw, see below with the HRRR and RAP.
          Has channel 4 changed their snow map yet? Because
          me thinks it is too low, but then I said that yesterday. 😀

          1. Yeah, I can see ch 4 being a bit too low. The one I thought was really too low and too far northwest was NBC Boston 7.

    2. Same now at 12z, 24hr 850mb temp compared to yesterday’s 12z, 48 hr 850 mb temp.

      Id say the 0C contour is about 10-15 miles further south on today’s run than yesterdays.

      I’m guessing snow projections will end up some 15-20 miles further south on this run of the EURO.

        1. Sfc low track looks a bit further south. Probably so too is the 850 mb low and comma head.

          Watch out Boston and its northern suburbs.

          1. Tom, I agree totally.

            And it has been snowing here since 10:30 AM, but only recently has begun to look more serious.

  58. Latest 16Z HRRR Kucera Snow through 10Z tomorrow morning (still more to come)

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017033116/NE/HRRRNE_prec_kuchsnow_018.png

    16Z RAP Kucher snow through 13Z tomorrow with More to come

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017033116/021/snku_acc.conus.png

    For giggles and amusement, here is the 16Z RAP 10:1 snow map thriough 13Z tomorrow

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017033116/021/sn10_acc.conus.png

  60. We’ve stayed all snow in Wilmington despite low elevation. Think the town is between 100-150 feet. May have started as rain but I looked around 10, it was snowing and it’s been snowing the entire time since then. Still too warm for accumulations.

    2. It’s been all snow in Somerville for the last few hours, which I did not expect at all given that the elevation here is negligible.

  61. Do the models put into consideration about the warm ground and how it’s not going to accumulate until after sunset? I wonder if they counted the QPF that is falling now as accumulating snow, or i know the kuchera method puts snow ratio into consideration but i don’t know if it counts warm ground and high sun angle into consideration.

    1. They do NOT account for that. That is part of the Reason the resident Mets
      here keep cautioning us to be careful with the snow maps. Snow maps can
      be a guide, but we have to make adjustments for parameters you mention.

      1. Yea I thought so, maybe down the road in few years they will come up with technology for that lol. I am just afraid that thr snow maps we have seeing is counting the QPF for now, thus we are going to get way less snow the modeled.

  62. Already the 12Z Euro is NOT verifying!

    It has mixed precipitation from South of the MA/RI border Nortward to MA/NH border.
    BAD Euro, bad, bad Euro. Dumb Ass Model IT is SNOWING!!!!!

        1. Not yet. My service runs a little behind Instant Weather
          Maps. Mine is out to 24 hours or 12Z tomorrow. Still more
          to go. And so far I believe the Euro is incorrect with
          it’s precipitation type, at least for many of the hours.

      2. No, that’s good, if you want snow, right ?

        That means its not initialized cold enough 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  63. Judging by the initialized 850 mb temps on the EURO, I think it makes sense that its snowing in the eastern and northeastern corridor of Massachusetts. This is one time where its snowing in Boston and Marshfield and probably sleeting or raining on the westernmost end of the Mass Pike. We’re simply closer to the slowly retreating dome of cold air.

    I don’t think this is a traditional Boston gets 3 inches and North Adams or Albany gets 10-12. I think its the other way around in some respects. I can see North Adams and Albany struggling to get much of any snow, building slowly through Springfield, then Worcester …. but Middlesex and Essex County down to perhaps Boston, they may be the Massachusetts jackpot area. And then tapering again to where theres a couple inches of compacted snow and sleet down here in Marshfield.

    1. Great analysis tom. Very indeed interesting. Do you think boston has a chance of getting 6 inches? I know the suburbs might have a chance but boston being next to the water ( especially logan airport where they do their observations) might not have a chance. Hell boston might even get more snow out of this than the march blizzard.

      1. Kane, not Tom, But I honestly do believe Boston has a chance
        to reach 6 inches. It will depend upon how rapidly and how
        much it accumulates before any sleet, if any, gets involved.
        SLEET murders accumulation. If the sleet moves in faster, then
        they may not reach that amount. If not, then I think they have a “chance”. We shall see.

        Even if they don’t, there will be enough to have it look and feel
        like Winter.

      3. I’m more confident Boston sees 90% or so of its precip being frozen.

        I’m confident it sees many hours of heavy frozen precip.

        If this were Jan or Feb and it was going to be in the 20s, I would easily say yes to 6″.

        Since I believe the temp will be oscillating between perhaps 31 and 34F, in a technical sense, I don’t know if they’ll get to 6 because there may be compacting and melting even while its snowing or especially in precip lulls.

        If I have to pick a number, I’ll guess Logan at 3.7 and JpDave at his location with 5.9

        1. You may be about correct Tom. Even so, with heavy wet compacted snow with possibly heavy sleet mixed in,
          3-4 inches will seem like a whole lot more.

          1. oh absolutely. whichever region gets that compacted 3-5 inch amount is going to be shoveling/plowing weight comparable to 1 or more inches of liquid equivalent.

  64. So far, the infamous Euro Snow tool has 100% More snow for Boston this run, than it did on the 0Z run, Plus we already know that it was initialized too warm. 😀

  65. Visibility holding at about 3/4 mile here. Still no signed of any snow accumulating
    on grassy surfaces or car tops.

  66. Eric fisher tweeted about half an hour ago that Pittsfield, Mass has light rain. Goes with what tom and others were saying how it could be raining in western mass but snow in eastern mass. This storm might surprise us in a good way. Who knows

  67. Column cooling in a Westwood. Surface temp down to 34. Snowing steadily and IS beginning to stick to grassy surfaces. My concerns continue to mount.

    2. I’m in Walpole only a few miles away and a very different story. Been about 90% rain with a few wet snowflakes mixing in. There will be a very abrupt line of rain vs snow with this one. I think you are right at the southern edge.

  70. Though snow may have a difficult time stacking up, its likely to still be a wild night whether in heavy snow, heavy sleet or a combination of the two. Power outages may also be at play.

      1. The only thing one can take from this map is that this particular
        model is calling for mostly if not ALL frozen precipitation, snow and/or Sleet.

      1. Same here, and on a very few grassy areas that are constantly in the shade. Back home and it’s full snow all the way to the ocean.

  75. M.L., You make several good points. I’m 52, so we’re in the same age bracket. There was less weather hype back in the `old’ days. This said, we didn’t have the information overload we have today. Everyone can be a `weatherperson’ today by downloading model projections, sharing with others, instantaneously looking up historical weather facts, etc … Same applies in sports. When I was a kid, we really didn’t know what Yastremski was up to during the off-season, or even his daily routine (which by the way included smoking cigarettes). Trade rumors were just that. Journalists didn’t have the same kind of access to GMs as they do today. Our craving for on-demand information and breaking news about everything – even if the information amounts to “alternative facts” – is feeding the beast.

    1. Well stated Joshua.

      But honestly, I’d rather it this way.
      We were woefully uninformed back in the day.

      I was STARVED for weather information. I couldn’t stand not knowing.
      I used to listen to my “weather radio” for broadcasts from the NWS. Anything
      to garner the least bit of information.

      Today’s technology and the internet is a blessing for me. I would have died for all of this growing up.

  76. All rain here in the Hartford area and 38 degrees. I also couldn’t find one reporting station in CT, western MA (including N Adams), and eastern NY south of Glens Falls that isn’t raining right now. Meanwhile its snowing in Falmouth and Marshfield. What a bizarre setup. Enjoy whatever you get up there!

    1. Very Strange indeed, but it speaks very well to what Tom has been saying since
      yesterday about the position of the retreating high and that Eastern Sections
      would be closer to that cold air source However cold or not cold that may be. 😀

      Kind of weird, but the models have been depicting that all along. No surprise
      there.

      1. They have been, so far the storm is playing out as expected. Had hoped the rain/snow line might set up a bit father south but doesn’t seem to be in the cards for us on this one.

  78. Snowing fairly hard on Beacon Hill where I’m sitting in a coffee shop watching the world go by. Snow is sticking to the tops of cars, but nowhere else.

  80. Here is the 3PM observation from Logan. Kind of confirms my visibility findings.

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W

    Snow Fog
    33.0 °F
    Last Updated: Mar 31 2017, 2:54 pm EDT
    Fri, 31 Mar 2017 14:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Snow Fog
    Temperature: 33.0 °F (0.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 96 %
    Wind: East at 11.5 MPH (10 KT)
    Wind Chill: 24 F (-4 C)
    Visibility: 0.50 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1020.5 mb

    That is moderate snow and the temperature is DOWN to the range TOM
    predicted. Nice job Tom. You were all over that one.

    Now it is 3:11 PM as I write this. With that intensity and temperature, it is time
    for it to start accumulating. We are seeing signs now, it should be much more noticable
    in the next hour or 2 as that Sun angle is diminished. 😀

    It’s beginning to look a lot like Christms

  82. Grass in my area completely covered (Pelham, NH @335 feet). Some slush in driveway but nothing on the roads.

  83. I cracked the code.

    A friend of mine who lives in Worcester said he was getting potentially 8 inches tonight and up to 12 inches tomorrow.

    I asked where he got such information. Weather.com he said. He sent me the screenshots of tonight and tomorrow.

    http://i.imgur.com/bR2IzOlh.jpg

    1. Weather.com? Isn’t that the fucuckta Weather Channel?
      They suck! I wouldn’t trust ANYTHING they put out. 😀 😀 😀

    1. WOW!!! Double triple WOW!!!

      IS this possible? WOW!

      HOLY CRAP BATMAN!

      Did they add Boston to the Winter Storm Warning? With those number, they should have!

      2. My guess is when the afternoon package is updated Boston will be a winter storm warning and a winter advisory will be hoisted far to the south perhaps excluding the cape and islands.

      3. I don’t think this changes tk’s important point re : thin warm layer. But it does correctly account for the chillier lower levels. I don’t know if these snow totals verify, but I do think it signifies a large amount of frozen type precip even south and southeast of Boston and I agree with that.

        1. Yup, and I would like to reiterate that you were ALL
          over the possibility even Yesterday! Great job TOM!
          (I suppose I should wait until/if that verifies, but nah, I’ll give you credit anway!)

          1. Lol, I was just thinking about the verifying part too !! Thanks though, we’ll see what happens 🙂 🙂

  87. Silver Lake High School Junior Prom is tonight. I guess there won’t be many outdoor photos. Poor kids.

      1. It has been all snow for a bit now. The kids going to the prom are required to take busses provided by the school. It is being held at Lombardo’s in Randolph.

          1. I don’t think it is being postponed. They are already at the gym for their “grand march”. They parade around the gym and then head out to the busses.

    1. It’s precipitating for sure, but not 100% snow and not overly intense either. What snow there has been has started to whiten up the grass but nothing like what’s being reported just to my north and east.

  89. It’s been straight snow down this way pembroke & marshfield. Front stairs were a tad iced up .

        1. Depends on what expectations are. 🙂

          What we do know is this won’t be 1997. 😉

      2. Nope, I’m DONE with let downs.

        If we get 3 inches I’ll be happy. Tomorrow is APRIL for crying out loud. I could not possibly be as upset with anything that happens with this event as I would be in the Dead of Winter. 😀 EVEN IF
        it changed to rain in an hour.

  92. If Boston gets 4.2 inches of snow out of this 50 inches of snow for the season which is very good considering how mild the winter was.

    1. hahahahaha – nope – I’m here. They came to me today….Mark and Will and Mel that is 🙂

  96. 18Z 3KM NAM wants to bring the warm layer in here between 8 and 11PM tonight.
    Earlier than ALL other models, including the regular NAM. If this is correct, then
    the higher totals will NOT be achieved despite what the NWS has for a map. 😀 😀

    Never a dull moment in the weather office.

    I think the warm layer gets in here, but not that quickly and for as long as
    this 3KM NAM says it will.

    We shall see.

    I have certainly seen the warm layer move in MUCH MORE Rapidly than modeled
    many times before.

  97. I’ll be updating my blog around 6PM with new #’s. Not a huge change, just an adjustment.

    Very busy day here in additional to watching the weather I have some errands to finish up and my son is in a musical at the high school this evening (and again tomorrow afternoon).

    Snow as become lighter here in Woburn and what had started to accumulate on cars and is melting. Pavement, as expected, remains just wet. Grass is covered with about 0.4 or 0.5 inch now.

    1. Thank you, TK. Very exciting news for your son and for his dad!!! You have a fun weekend ahead.

  99. Rain….rain….rain….and more rain!! See how well Sutton shares! Your turn to have the snow now!

  100. Watches and Warnings

    http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png

    They are clearly factoring in the SLEET. Read on…

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY…

    The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm
    Warning for heavy snow and sleet, which is in effect until 4 PM
    EDT Saturday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect.

    * LOCATIONS…Northeast coastal Massachusetts including the
    Boston Metropolitan area.

    * HAZARD TYPES…Snow and sleet.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…4 to 8 inches of snow in the Boston Metro area
    with 6 to 10 inches across the far northeast Massachusetts
    coast.

    * TIMING…Snow will fall moderate to heavy at times early this
    evening. The snow will mix with and change to sleet in many
    locations later this evening and into the overnight hours
    especially south of route 2. It is also possible that
    precipitation changes to rain for a period of time overnight.
    Any mixed precipitation will change back to snow early Saturday
    morning falling moderate to heavy at times.

    * IMPACTS…Untreated roads will become slippery this evening with
    snow and sleet. This will impact the evening rush hour. Another
    round of moderate to heavy snow will impact the region Saturday
    morning into early afternoon before tapering off to snow showers
    later in the afternoon. In addition to slippery roads and poor
    visibility, the wet nature of the snow coupled with increasing
    winds may result in some downed tree limbs and scattered power
    outages.

    * WINDS…Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

    * VISIBILITIES…One quarter to one half mile at times.

  102. I get the idea from watching radar simulations that this system may have quite a backside to it. It will be coming through during the mid to early afternoon tomorrow, so that should temper accumulations, but that could feature a period of heavy wet snow.

      1. Thanks TOM. This thing has an impressive look to it.
        IF only we could keep that warm layer out of here.

        Still, it is going to be pretty impressive I think.

        BE CAREFUL moving this stuff around tomorrow!

  104. FWIW, I like ch 5’s updated map. Again, unlike in the cold heart of winter, not so much focused on exact snow amounts, but the regions.

    I equate the 2-4 to be snow/sleet to brief rain back to snow. The 4-8, snow to sleet to snow: 8+ = all snow and c-2 to be rain/sleet ending as snow. Now whether those exact amounts come out of that, who knows

  106. .24 inch of rain in Sutton today.

    Temp 33.6

    Anyone know what is happening over the border around Manchester NH area?

    1. YUCK! Who Woulda thunk that it would be raining in Sutton and SNowing
      in Boston. Very strange indeed, but Tom has explained very well the reason why.
      😀

        1. I think he meant Manchester NH in answer to my question. Although mark may well have said it is snowing where he is

      2. Thank you, Mark. Looks as if son will get there (just above Manchester) before it gets bad. This mom worries when he has not had sleep in 36 hours.

  108. Still very steady snow here, not heavy but a solid light to occasionally moderate.
    Visibility about 3/4 mile, perhaps a tad more.

    Grassy surfaces, car tops and roofs are all snow covered. Streets are still wet.
    They are ready so as soon as the intensity picks up, IF it picks up, the snow will
    start to accumulate on the roads.

  111. In explaining projected snow amounts Tom referred to the fact that this storm is not occurring in the cold heart of winter.” I know what Tom means, as we’re not in the trough of winter in terms of limited sun angle, daylight hours, etc … Nevertheless, the way I see it is that March 2017 has represented the cold heart of winter around here. No other month came close in my opinion in terms of consistent cold and sustained wintry feel. When I look back at 2016-2017 I’ll remember this winter as a back-end winter most of all.

      1. One might saynthe seasons are shifting 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Whoever bet I’d say that, wins the prize. It was a sure thing

  112. Freezing rain in Shrewsbury for about an hour. Bushes and trees are icy and the driveway is slippery slush.

  115. Ok I’m going to leave the #’s alone. NO need to go up. It’s already warmer than modeled and the mix line is about 25 miles further north than alot of guidance had. That goes along with the idea up at the top of the blog, maybe even a little earlier than indicated.

  116. 850mb temps and 10:1 ratio maps are both useless for this storm. The warm layer will likely be above 850mb, and the ratio will be a lot lower than 10:1.

  117. Rain/ice pellet mix in Marshfield.

    Few snow flakes/ice pellets mix in scituate.

    Marshfield hills up on rte 3a and relatively elevated compared to the ocean had a decent coating on the lawn and trees.

  119. Precip has pretty much been non-existent for last 15-20 minutes in North Reading. The Charlie hole?

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