Wednesday Forecast

48 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 26-30)
The final 5 days of April will present a few different kinds of weather generally typical for this time of year, first the continued damp/cool variety today as low pressure continues to coming up the East Coast, weakening, then the clouds-hanging-on variety tomorrow as the nearly dissipated low is slow to depart. After that the warmer southwesterly flow takes over but clouds will still be dominant Friday as a trough moves through from the west and possibly kicks off a few showers. We do get a summer preview again on Saturday with more sun but still a risk of a shower or thunderstorm ahead of a stronger cold front which will open the door to high pressure from Canada, but centered far enough east that the wind will come in from the north to northeast Sunday with much cooler but dry weather.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. A few heavier showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly during the morning. Highs 52-60, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Slight chance of light rain. Lows 44-52. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle early. Highs 55-61 coast, 61-67 interior. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-75, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of late-day shower/thunderstorm. Lows 52-60. Highs 64-80, coolest South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-52. Highs 55-64, coolest East Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 1-5)
Episodes of showers, changeable temperatures as several systems pass through.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 6-10)
Active pattern brings quick changes but no major storms.

48 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    btw, Bruce Cassidy has been officially named the coach of the Boston Bruins.
    How could they not do that. Finally, a real coach instead of that incompetent
    Claude Julien. 😀

    Now IF only the Red Sox would follow suit. He he he That ain’t happening. For some
    reason they love that Imbecile John Farrell. And I do MEAN IMBECILE!!!

    1. 7 is a GREAT number. Mac’s and my first date was 7/7/77

      Did you go to Payson Park school, MassBay? Or was it before your time? There is a new FB page for folks who attended.

      1. It seems there is less and less that was before my time, Vicki 🙂

        I went to Chenery -back when Chenery was just K-6.

    1. YET, the same sounding from the College of DuPage site shows
      a completely different threat. Ie Marginally severe as opposed to Tornado
      from the Pivotal site. This is the DANGER in these sites and it is the site
      software that is assigning the risk and NOT the model itself.

      DANGER WILL ROBINSON! DANGER!

      http://imgur.com/a/gsHqd

      1. I would say that the College of DuPage shows the more
        realistic risk. The Pivotal site is Waaaay too aggressive
        with the risk assessment.

  8. I wonder if there’s convergence between the E and SE winds in southeast Mass and the NE winds in interior New England that are helping to produce those convective looking showers in RI.

    Temps and dps nearing the 55F to 60F range in SE mass.

  10. Based on what I am seeing on radar, I really don’t think the Sox get their game in tonight. Eric thought they would no problem. I think this system may have been
    underestimated.

    2. I sure hope he does. Should take away one whole side of the floor and I believe his fractured thumb is on his dominant hand.

  13. I know that TK warned us about depending on Euro Severe parameters, but
    the Euro Total Totals index for Friday PM, still running in thed 52-56 range, indicating
    the possibility of some severe weather.

  15. 12z NAM far more instability than the 12z GFS for Saturday. The SREF link JPDave posted earlier did highlight part of SNE. When that model starts to highlight an area you start to watch future model runs to see what happens. NAM at the end of its run but when we get within 36 hours will see if the instability is robust.

  17. Thank you JJ. You’ve been quiet today. You usually perk up when there
    is even a remote chance of severe weather.

    I always like to see these Ryan Hanrahan tweets. Keep em coming. Thanks

    We shall see about Saturday. If there is a severe threat, more likely out your
    way than anywhere near the coast. Will keep an eye out just in case.

  18. I just got in from a busy day at work.
    I think this is an interior threat should any storms fire on Saturday. I am not feeling anything big at this point but I think some areas across the interior could see an isolated strong storm.

    1. We shall see. One never knows, but typically unless there is a West wind,
      Eastern sections are protected with cooler Atlantic waters South of
      Log Island. Later when those waters warm into the 70s, not so much. 😀

  19. Too early in the season for the coastal areas with those water temps. Any wind off those waters stable atmosphere which is kryptonite for a thunderstorm since they don’t like stable air. I will say looking the mid level lapse rates on GFS and NAM and its still early but the values are higher right now than they were during any thunderstorm days last summer. Its just one thing to look at with thunderstorms but the values are in that 6.5 to 7.0 range which is more than enough for thunderstorm development. Last summer the values were at times below 6.0 and never got up to the 6.5 range or higher.

  20. Not impressed with NAM for Friday or Saturday. Some showers and possible
    storms in Western NE and that’s about it. 😀

  22. Forget thunderstorms for Friday. Well, I was pretty sure yesterday that we were able to forget them but I’m even more sure now.

    Starting to think not much takes place Saturday either.

  23. I would put the thunder threat at near zero for both Friday and Saturday. Next weather event of interest comes around Tuesday with another frontal passage, but shouldn’t be a big deal.

    Longer range, some interesting model solutions towards the end of May’s first week. A very winter-like storm being modeled, minus the snow given the time of year. Pattern looks pretty ripe for a sizable and potentially slow moving storm around then. Big east-central US trough with some potential blocking to our northeast. Lots of time to watch that though.

    1. Thank you Dr.

      I was thinking that these might be really beneficial for any folks who work outdoors. They have TKs exceptional forecast to be sure. But I know from speaking with some recently that they look to the media too for 10 day forecasts. Here, they can find the 10 days (knowing accuracy is questionable) all in one spot.

  25. with this type of set up i would not think we would even be talking about the big boomers, just rain.

  28. Ok …a beef. Teaser on a main tv channel was “when is this dreary pattern going to end?”

    It’s been two days. Not even two full days. We have rain. We have drizzle. And then we will have sun. Good grief

    Phew. I think I feel better although I am not sure I’ll ever understand it.

    2. Or ….. If the teaser meant the long term of the whole month, then I have to admit it captures exactly how I feel.

      26 days into the month, I’m guessing 2/3 to 3/4 of them have been cloudy and I’d guess the percentage of possible sunshine seen has to be running somewhere around 30 to 40 percent for the month.

      Very dreary 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  29. Very short update posted…
    Will add more later.

    Lots going on so I haven’t been able to sit down as long as I want and hammer out a good blog!

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