Wednesday Forecast

61 Comments

3:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)
Summer officially arrived at 12:24AM. A cold front will pass through the region today, but will have limited moisture to work with. There will still be a shower and thunderstorm threat from this front, favoring areas along and south of the Mass Turnpike during the afternoon. High pressure moves in with mild and dry weather for Thursday, but the progressive pattern brings the next system in rather quickly and its warm front will pass by in the early hours of Friday opening the door to warmth, humidity, and the risk of showers/thunderstorms on Friday. The weekend remains a bit questionable as I see it. Some of this will depend on remnant moisture from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m not confident yet that a cold front approaching Friday night fully moves off the coast and cleans house for the weekend, so for now I am going to leave the risk of showers in the forecast for the coming weekend.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring southern MA, CT, and RI during the afternoon. Highs 77-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s South Coast, middle 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)
A broad trough moves through the region during the first half of the period with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms favoring June 26 and 28. temperatures near to below normal. Fair and warmer weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)
Progressive flow should continue but with a little more of a broad ridge moving in, with limited shower chances and temperatures near to above normal.

61 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    Today is the longest day of the year. I guess we all go downhill from here. 😉

  8. Happy Sum-mah, everyone!
    It’s School Day 180 and the Red Sox are in first place!

    Doesn’t get much better than that!

      1. You too, Tom!!!!
        I might add that I got two hits and an RBI in the staff-student softball game yesterday with most of my body parts still intact!

        1. Lol …… Wiffle ball for us, except I take the stationary position of 1st base umpire. 🙂

  9. Question for Sunday. Daughter is having oldest grandson’s 10th bday party and planning on a bounce house. I told her about your comments, TK. Is Sunday a bit safer to plan for this or should she wait. I’m guessing wait as long as she can but the houses disappear quickly this time of year.

    Thank you!!!!

    1. I hope to be slightly more confident by this evening. I just have this funny feeling about at least part of this weekend.

  10. I wonder how parts of the southern Gulf Coast are going to fare with this tropical system.

    Plenty of prior examples of these early season, rather unorganized systems, but slow movers, that drop prolific rainfall amounts.

      1. Possibly. This is the thing making me worry a bit about this weekend…

        More later.

    1. Also, there’s a dewpoint boundary, as there often is in summer, in southern New England. Mid-upper 50s in most areas, except low-mid 60s on south shore, Cape and the Islands.

    1. This is my reason for concern for the weekend. We are just of differing opinions on how and when that moisture impacts this area.

  14. Opinion on models…

    ECMWF has been OK but I think this has been trending to a poorer performance the last few days. Not a fan of today’s 12z run.

    GFS has been crap but I think today’s 12z run is OK. And by OK I mean OK. I do not mean that I think it will verify out through 384 hours. 😛

    The CMC is the CMC. It would turn an iceberg into a tropical cyclone if it could.

    1. The Tropical Models along with the NAMS are pretty much advertising
      Rain for Saturday. Are those OK or OUT TO LUNCH as well?

      Frankly, I don’t give a crap if it rains Saturday, I’d just prefer Sunday to be dry, like I have a say in the matter. 😀

      1. Geez, it accurately predicts votices in my sinks, tub and toilet.
        It’s like clockwork! It gets it correct each and every day. 😀

  15. Public Information Statement
    National Weather Service Taunton MA
    255 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

    …Taunton, MA Doppler Radar Upgrade Has Been Completed…

    The technology upgrade to the National Weather Service Doppler Radar
    (WSR-88D) in Taunton, MA has been completed ahead of schedule.

    The radar is now back in service.

    A crew installed a new signal processor, which replaced obsolete
    technology, improves processing speed and data quality, provides
    added functionality, and supports IT security.

    This was the first of four major upgrades, known as Service Life
    Extension Projects, planned in the next five years to replace and
    refurbish major components of the 20 year old WSR-88Ds and to keep
    the radars operational into the 2030s. The $150M investment is being
    made by the three organizations that use these radars, the NOAA
    National Weather Service, United States Air Force and Federal
    Aviation Administration. The other Service Life Extension Projects
    include refurbishing: the transmitter, the pedestal and equipment
    shelters.

    The tri-agency Radar Operations Center, which supports the radars,
    estimates it will take about 10 months to upgrade the signal
    processor on all 159 operational WSR-88Ds.

    2. Yeah, they need to rebrand that thing. Why have a cone at all if you’re uncertain. It should be the “probability cone” or something like that.

      I’m going to tell my boss today each time he’s looking for information that I’m uncertain. I’ll let you guys know how that goes.

    1. Some convection popping farther North between Springfield and Worcester, so
      it is possible that areas from the MA Pike or so Southward could see a passing shower or storm a little later.

  19. Pomegranate pitched decently again today with the SOX ahead 4-2 in the bottom
    of the 8th.

    Benintendi homered for the Sox. 😀 # 10 on the season.

    1. Oh and Xander followed Benintendi with a homer of his own.
      Gotta love those back-to-back homers.

      1. Oh and they lose 6-4…just can’t stand prosperity. Unless Yankees lose tonight, bye-bye first place! It was fun while it lasted.

        1. That convection currently in southern Rhode Island is not a thunderstorm, but the baseball from Salvador Pérez’s grand slam homer that has yet to come down launched from Kansas City. I know the bullpen has been terrific lately and you can’t win every game, but…still…YIKES!

  20. Thanks, TK.

    Idyllic June day. Not too hot or humid. Certainly not cold. Summer breeze at times.

    Just heard terrible news regarding a colleague and friend of mine. On Monday he passed away unexpectedly. He and I were working together on a summer course at Suffolk. Really unsettling news. It’s been a rough year on many fronts, but this news just leaves me feeling raw. I’m not always one to draw lessons from life’s stories, but I do think there’s an important message here and that is to never take life for granted. Every day is a blessing. I kick myself for sometimes wishing time away (like when I get in my “I can’t wait till fall” moods). We have limited time here on earth and we must make the most of it.

    1. Joshua – I’m so sorry to hear this. My heartfelt condolences on the loss of your friend and colleague. Every single day is a gift.

    4. Dear Joshua….my most sincere sympathy for the loss of your friend and colleague. You are so right about living each day. God Bless. With fondness, Vicki

  23. I’ve heard thunder 3 times since the shower blossomed just off of Marshfield’s coastline.

  24. Thank you for the condolences, WHW friends. Much appreciated.

    It’s going to be so strange this summer to teach in the course without Rick around. He created the course and was instrumental in organizing the faculty.

    1. Interesting from the Taunton NWS:

      Friday night…

      Wet, muggy, mild. An anomalous setup attributable to the remnants of
      Cindy. Roughly a +4-5 standard deviation (SD) of H85 moisture flux
      and +3 SD of precipitable waters which exceed record highs recorded
      at Chatham MA which average around 2 inches but are forecast around
      2.25 inches. Will need to closely monitor any focusing mechanisms
      which can put the squeeze on the atmosphere and possibly yield a
      predecessor rainfall event.

      For those inclined to read up on Predecessor rainfall events, here is a rather in-depth paper on the subject from the American Meteorological Journal:

      http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1

Comments are closed.