Saturday Forecast

50 Comments

9:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)
A cold front will move through the region this morning and early afternoon, and running along and ahead of it are the remains of TS Cindy, bringing some significant rain to southern New England, particularly CT, RI, and southeastern MA. The front itself may bring a shower or thunderstorm as it crosses the region behind the rain area. Everything should be offshore by early afternoon, though it may take until mid afternoon to fully clear Cape Cod. The rest of the weekend will be mainly dry with lowering humidity, although there may be just enough instability on Sunday midday and afternoon to pop an isolated shower or two, but don’t cancel any outdoor plans for this remote possibility. Also, astronomically high tides through the weekend may result in some minor coastal flooding. A broad trough of low pressure will move through the region Monday through Wednesday and will bring somewhat cooler air and a few opportunities for showers.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through early afternoon with rain, moderate to heavy at times including embedded thunder, steadiest in CT, RI, and southeastern MA, spotty and lighter to the northwest, but a risk of a heavier shower/thunderstorm crossing the region from west to east late morning through early afternoon. Decreasing clouds mid afternoon on. Humid, then drying out late. Highs 78-84 South Coast, 84-90 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, W to NW 10-20 MPH this afternoon and evening.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny with a slight risk of isolated showers afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower. Highs 77-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
A zonal (west to east) flow dominates. A disturbance somewhere around the middle of the period may bring a few showers/thunderstorms otherwise expected mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)
A similar pattern is expected to continue.

50 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  9. The main rain (Cindy remnants) is OVER here with a grand total of 0.09 inch.
    Rain associated with the front is still off to the West. How much of that, if any, makes it here remains to be seen.

  10. Just started pouring in Sudbury. According to radar, this line of rain moved south; rain earlier moved north. I wonder if this is cold front?

  11. We’re getting heavier rain than we got from Cindy earlier. Cindy’s rain stayed more south of us. REALLY pouring now. No thunder – yet – if we get any.

  14. There’s still a little lift behind the front as it’s probably a gradual slope. Another shower or downpour or 2 may pop up behind the initial line and give Boston a shot at something.

    1. And now they’ve moved through. Was just like a squall line moving through, but no thunder. Sky went black and then opened up. Big raindrops. Very little wind.

  19. It’s been bright and sunny for some time now. There is a nice breeze; sun is hot but it’s still on the muggy side – but it feels like the air is trying to dry out.

  20. The dry-out is a process. It will start slowly then accelerate for a while.

    Some areas get close to 90 this afternoon though.

  21. Oh dear…the GFS. I wish I could say better things about this model more often, but it’s really not that good. We can do better than this.

    1. Wow, he is quite brave to go outside. If it were me I would have run as far inside the store as I could have!

      2. Brave might not be word I’d use for him or her. Smart would be a word I’d use for you

        Thanks JJ

    1. Son in law mentioned tonight that he had seen the blob you mentioned this am, Philip, disappear and reappear this morning too.

  28. 61 with 56 DP. Darn but we have had some amazing weather. Hardly possible for anyone to complain about !!

  29. What a beautiful night! I wonder if boston hit 90 today, that will be the 9th time if it did as someone here mentioned earlier.
    Next week should be interesting for severe weather. Here is nws discussion

    On Thursday, heat and humidity begins to return around the western periphery of high pressure near Bermuda and in advance of an approaching low pressure/cold front system in the eastern Great Lakes. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid and upper 80s. A strong southwesterly low level jet will develop during the day, with models indicating 40-50 kts at 925 mb. Mixing should allow wind gusts to reach 25-30 mph at the surface, especially in eastern MA and RI. Have raised winds above guidance values. With south-southeast surface winds and strong southwest to west winds aloft, forecast 0-3km helicities are above 300 m2/s2 across our region with significant 0-1km values as well. The setup is there for potential severe weather. However, the day is dry to start. But both the GFS and ECMWF show a rapid influx of 34-36 K indices into western sections between 18-22Z Thursday late afternoon. The implication is that convection forms over the eastern Great Lakes, moves across New York state and into CT/western MA late in the day. The source of the convection…the cold front…will remain well to our west so it should weaken as it heads east Thursday night, but with a high shear/high helicity environment in place here, we will need to watch for isolated severe thunderstorm potential. On Friday, summertime heat and humidity will have peaked with highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints reaching the upper 60s to near 70 in the CT River Valley by evening. Depending on model solutions, the cold front will be either approaching or moving through on Friday afternoon. There should be strong CAPE and still some 0-3km helicity near or above 150. Am forecasting 40-50 percent chances of thunderstorms. The potential does exist for severe storms Friday into Friday evening.

    I will be having the day off on those days, hoping to chase some good storms.

    1. How far west are you planning to go? I know the trees don’t really start to thin out in some places until you get past Albany to where 90 meets 81.

  30. This morning’s discussion Taunton has calmed it down some. Taking with a huge grain of salt 0z GFS and 6z GFS do show plenty of instability for thunderstorm development Fri and Sat especially across the interior. The mid level lapse rates around 6.0 or little higher. Last Monday they were poor below 6.0.

  34. Kane… Are you on Facebook? If you are, you should become a member of New England Storm Chasers FB page if you are not already.

  35. Updating now… No big changes on this one. More tweaking than anything – be done shortly.

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