Monday Forecast

6:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)
The final 5 days of June, and they go something like this… Broad trough ignites diurnal clouds today but showers should stay mainly to the north. A disturbance coming along later Tuesday will bring a better shot at showers and a few thunderstorms, and this should depart Wednesday which turns out drier. Upper low exits and weak ridge moves in Thursday but progressive flow allows a warm front to cross the region Thursday night and early Friday, which may bring a shower or thunderstorm. We will be in a fairly unstable and more humid southwesterly flow Friday so additional storms may be possible. Will have to watch this although it’s too far away for any detail.
TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southern NH. Highs 76-83, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind light WSW.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-64. Wind light SW to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy morning with a risk of isolated showers favoring Cape Cod, then mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower/thunderstorm at night. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)
A few episodes of showers/thunderstorms possible over the weekend of Saturday and Sunday July 1 and 2 but not looking for any washouts. Generally dry weather expected for the “extended weekend” Monday through Wednesday July 3 through 5. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-5 (JULY 6-10)
Warm to hot, isolated showers/thunderstorms but mainly dry otherwise July 6-8. Better chance of showers/storms later in the period.

45 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK.
    Enough instability on the 0z and 6z GFS for thunderstorms Fri through Sun. Now will see if they get on the potent side.

  2. Last evening’s second batch of showers came with a nice down draft.

    We had all of the windows open and that blast of wind came and blew doors
    shut with a deafening roar. Only came with a few drops of rain. Didn’t even need
    to shut the windows. So for yesterday’s action, I was at the periphery both times and missed out.

    According to all sources, today’s action, if any, will be mostly confined to
    more Northern areas. As per usual, I will be on the look out for any surprises. 😀

    NWS seems fairly bullish regarding tomorrow’s possible action.
    They have the words Strong to possibly severe for tomorrow.
    Again, we shall see.

    1. And as JJ pointed out, more action is possible both Friday and Saturday.

      NWS hinted that a SE ridge could build Westward, keeping some sections dry
      (I read that to be Eastern sections, even if they did not specifically say that).

      We’ll have to wait some more to see how that plays out.

      06Z GFS has the area in a severe threat for Friday. The soundings avialable
      at the College of Dupage site and the Pivotal Weather sit both show a
      threat of tornadoes up to EF3. I find those sounding threats on both sites
      to be “OverCooked” all of the time, most especially the Pivotal site.
      I have seen the Pivotal site indicate tornado while the COD site just has severe.
      In the case of Thursday, both sites indicate tornado.

      I use those threats as a “possibility” indicator, NOT a certainty indicator.
      I just look at that as something to monitor. When I start seeing the
      SREF significant tornado ingredients and the Significant tornado paremeter
      then I take NOTICE.

      1. However, that being said, the taunton NWS was hyping the
        tornado threat possibility even a few days ago. So, it is probably
        a situation worth monitoring at least.

  3. JPDave the SREF model you posted back on Friday highlighting NJ as a possible area to watch for tornado development ended up verifying. There was in fact a tornado that was rain wrapped from a video posted on YouTube from a Home Depot store in Holden, NJ.
    When that model highlights an area you take notice.

  4. Greatest amount of instability for tomorrow on 12z NAM is eastern CT RI and areas south of Boston near the CT RI boarder. This happens at 11am tomorrow morning after instability drops off.

  5. 12z GFS has the most instability across western parts of CT near NY boarder for tomorrow at 2pm. By comparison 12z NAM had the most instability at 11am for eastern CT RI and areas south of Boston near CT RI boarder. Clicking on the soundings on Cod site the areas I mentioned with the highest instability Tornado being indicated which I think is way over done. I am not feeling severe weather tomorrow but rather a few isolated strong storms.

  6. I am not planning anything for after I depart work Friday (2PM), which by the way I won’t have to return to until Monday July 10. 🙂

  7. Thanks TK. JPD wife and kids got me an acurite weather station and I put it up over the weekend. Loving it so far. The only thing I wish it had was WIFI support for reporting. Don’t like the idea of needing to have it connected to a computer for that feature at all times.

    1. Scott, mine is connected to my wireless router. That is the provided internet bridge is connected directly to my wireless router.

      Also, did you install the mobile app on your phone? It is available at
      the Google Play store and whatever it is called with Apple. It is called
      “My AcuRite” by Chaney Intruments. When installed you will have to supply the mac address of your Internet Bridge.

      I can see my weather station from anywhere in the world I have an internet
      connection on my phone. Also, I have mine linked to Weather Underground.
      It has fantastic charts and graphs available with it.

      1. Interesting I will have to look into that. Although the router I have is fairly old and I don’t think there is a USB connection. Thanks for the tip. I did download the app and also linked to Weather Underground.

        1. Scott, it is not a USB connection.

          It is a full Ethernet connection.

          I don’t know what your router is, but my new router and even my old LinkSys router, had Ethernet ports on it.
          Just take a regular old Ethernet cable and plug on end into a port on the router and the other to the internet bridge.

          Oh wait a minute. IF you are already connected to
          Weather Underground, then your internet bridge
          must already be connected some how.

          IF so and you know the MAC address, just download
          the mobile app and you are in business.

            1. Any trouble with the mobile app just contact AcuRite’s Customer Support group. They are excellent. 😀

                1. Just realized my unit did not come with the bridge. Thought I was missing something. Hence my confusion.

  8. 12z GFS showing plenty of instability for storms Fri – Sun. Friday has the more aggressive severe parameters for a good chunk of SNE. Saturday Boston N & W.
    TK which day are you eyeing currently for potent storms?

    1. Friday but I’ll be re-evaluating this. I have some reservations on anything beyond Wednesday right now.

      1. It could end up being nothing, but clearly there is
        a possibility of at least some severe weather on Friday, no?

      1. Pretty cool when the radar picks up on this.

        Now, technically, what is causing the returns since it is not
        raining? I know in sensitive mode, it can pick up insects being
        blown in the wind. Perhaps dust particles. But there has to be something there to return the radar beam, even if very weakly.
        Could it be just tiny little water vapor particles coming from
        the nearby ocean?

        Curious as to your opinion on what is causing the return echoes.

        Many thanks

        1. All it takes is a relatively small concentration of particles from dust to feathery seed thingies to bugs, and even just a change in air density to some degree.

          1. Confirming what I thought, especially the change in air density. I always wondered if that could do it as well. Many thanks

  9. Tomorrow will be interesting for radar watching, I’m not quite sure how it will play out. The HRRR shows a band of light showers moving into our area from the southwest tomorrow morning and into early afternoon. A couple other models hint at this as well. If this happens, and especially if it lingers into afternoon, it would probably limit instability and any strong storm threat for later in the day in eastern areas. If we get good heating, we could see some strong storms pop up, some of which may briefly pulse to severe limits. Hail will be a threat given cold air aloft. I think once again, best chances will be to the west and north, in the Berks and southern VT/NH. But coverage should exceed what we’ve seen today, probably similar to yesterday but with a better chance for a couple stronger storms.

    1. Indeed, do they ever rush things!

      Re:tmorrow
      Thanks. We shall see.
      I have a feeling we’ll get enough heating in the afternoon.

  10. Gypsy moth report. In this area they are horrific. They cover streets and decks and driveways and kids and adults alike have rashes.

    BUT. The fungus they put down a couple of years ago is working. In Sutton many of them on the trunk of many trees are dead. Yay!!

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