Tuesday Forecast

64 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)
We had our very cool and wet Monday, but improvement will only be partial today as it will be less wet, but still fairly overcast and cool. Full improvement sneaks in tonight as the sky clears and sets up a beautiful summer day Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure slips offshore and humidity starts to increase Thursday, as well as cloudiness later, and this will set up a potentially very wet day Friday as a potent disturbance move in from the west. Still need to work out details of this event as it gets closer.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Scattered showers. Highs 63-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind light NW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, but cooling back in some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH morning, becoming light variable with sea breezes in the afternoon.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms at night. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers morning. Clearing afternoon. Lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)
High pressure moves in with fair/warmer weather July 30-31. Humidity increases along with some risk of showers/thunderstorms at times August 1-3.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)
Fair and a little drier early in the period then humidity increases and shower and thunderstorm threat returns.

64 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I actually wore a jacket to work today. Pretty pathetic for July 25th.
    One extreme to the other around these parts. I guess it IS too much to ask
    for consistent comfortable temperatures.

    1. Yes. It’s too much to ask. We’ve never had it nor are we about to start. 😉

  3. Thanks TK
    Went to a minor league baseball game last night and the people were dressed like it was a game in April. I am not complaining and I am enjoying this break from the heat and humidity.

    2. What is the significance of “Category 6” in this segment?
      Am I missing something???????

        1. Makes no sense to me what so ever. Why that title???

          The only thing I can determine is it is in some way
          recognizing the shear numbers of tropical systems
          currently in the Pacific.

          To me, and I can be warped on these matters, using category 6 is like using light years as a measure of
          time and not distance.

          Unless there is a MONSTER system to rival all
          category 5 storms, then it is senseless to name
          the segment category 6. Sorry, just how I look at
          the world and I recognize that I look at the world
          far differently than most people. 😀

          1. I was thinking it is similar to chapter 6 but the word category is used because each topic is a different category. Although category is a bit misleading since hurricanes are categories so I get what you are saying

            1. Don’t buy that explanation and if it is that,
              then they made a piss-poor choice, imho.
              But, hey, I like to find fault in everything.

              As I have said before, I am not a 1/2 empty glass kind of guy, I am a totally empty glass sort.

              I have been trying to add some new
              snazy dials to the new and improved mobile weather app and my eyes are literally spinning out of my sockets!!

  6. Tide was high enough very early am to come up partway under the house. You’d think it would have waited until we were awake to see. Maybe high tide this ok which should be around 1:30

  7. SPC has marginal risk for SNE with the exception of eastern MA. for Thursday.
    This has the feel of a rain threat more than a thunderstorm threat unless we could get the low to track west and get warm sectored but looking at the timing its not ideal for strong thunderstorm development at the present moment.

  8. Pretty sorry excuse and pathetic 2 days in July. Glad I missed both of them.
    So far this summer rates pretty low on my scale. Bout a 5 so far. August is gonna have to step it up to get this much better.
    Currently sunny, 85 degrees with a 75 degree dew point. God I dread getting on a plane and coming back 🙁

    1. I enjoy a cool in the summer as much as I enjoy a mild day in the winter. Not a darn thing we can do about it so may as well make the most of it.

    2. As long as I am not going swimming, I could give a rat’s ass. The cool is fine
      with me, at least my wife can survive. Take all of that humidity and keep
      it in Florida. 😀

  9. You would have loved two weeks ago in Williamsburg, VA where I was vacationing. Three straight day air temp 100 heat index around 110 and dew points mid to upper 70s.

  10. Thanks for the links with the EURO JPDave.
    Close call on the 0z run of the EURO in terms of severe weather.

    1. JJ, remember, this is a proprietary algorithm for which I posted info
      yesterday. The developer is a meteorologists who thinks his product is
      superior. Whether it is or not is highly debatable. Just interesting to know
      that it is picking up on something. We’ll have to monitor.

  11. In my 25 years here in New England, I find most don’t really like a “real summer” and would not survive a place where they actually get a real summer, and probably wouldn’t live there long.
    On the other hand, I’ve known a lot of southern transplants here. While none of us like the winter much, I think we survive it more than Yankees survive a southern summer. There are exceptions I’m sure.

    1. I don’t know if I’d agree with that. I for one can tolerate the heat. My wife can not and she would literally die if we lived down South, AC or not.

      I’ve been to Florida in the Summer and I was fine with it.

      I think you sell us Northerners short.

        1. Yes you did, but I am saying the exceptions are the ones
          that couldn’t deal with it down South. The rest of us
          would survive just fine, thank you very much.

  12. I’m a southerner, always will be. I feel out of place here, always have. Too young to retire and move just yet though. I need to get back around people who share my background. I will at some point.

    1. It takes all kinds to make the world go round which is as it should be

      Having everyone alike would be as boring as having all weather be the same

      I talk to born and raised southerners who are jealous of cooler weather. Others love it. Same as Anywhere

      The bottom line for me is that if I were to rely on weather to make me happy,I’d have a ton of unhappiness in my life. So my philosophy is to rely on myself. And myself seems to have somehow been blessed with the ability to find positives in pretty much everything. It isn’t right or wrong or better or worse. It is just what seems to work for me

      1. I just prefer the south. The people, the way and pace of life, politics, etc. Not that New England is bad, I like it ok. But I prefer where I was born and grew up.

        1. I think many people do prefer areas similar to where they were born and grew up. Pretty natural. I do as well. It is why I found a comfort in Sutton. I don’t think Mac..who grew up all over the world…and I ever thought of framingham as a forever home. It worked for our budget and was close to where we both worked. A small, conservative (yep, I said conservative) town is where I grew up and why I love Sutton. That said, I just tend to think happiness comes from within and not without.

  18. I may have made the dumbest comment on this blog a couple of weeks ago. You may recall that I suggested summertime forecasts (I was talking specifically about July 4th) were more predictable than winter. SAK corrected me. And, July 2017 has reinforced the point that summer unpredictability in SNE is a real phenomenon. We’ve now had 2 extended periods of unusually cool weather. Yesterday and today have felt October and even early-November like. Similarly, we experienced a period like this a couple of weeks ago. But, it’s not as if summer heat has been absent this month.

    1. There are no dumb comments. And To think a year ago we were over 100 on the 22nd of July and flirting with 90s a good part of when we were at the shore. ”Tis Nee England at its finest

  20. Labrador City is reporting 71F and mostly sunny. Yesterday was pretty much the same there – low 70s and sunny.

    1. It has steadily run by run suppressed the system Southward, so much so, that
      it misses SNE altogether now. Still could change, but already there has been
      about a 200 mile shift in 24 hours.

  22. Too early to say for sure, but the guidance has trended much more towards my idea of the bulk of the rain/storms from the late week system staying to our south. Much like tracking a winter storm in this case, it’s all about the low center’s track. However, I think a lot of people bit on the ECMWF for early projections of that event, when it was quite clearly suffering a major convective feedback problem. Friday may actually be a pretty nice day. We may see more impacts from an initial, leading disturbance on Thursday afternoon. That system may bring some showers and storms to northern portions of the region around then.

    1. I think for a while it was GFS (faster) vs ECMWF (slower) and as time goes a long it appears that actually neither one of them is going to have quite had it right that far out.

      The GFS looks like it may have had an ok idea with the approach of a cold front Thursday, but totally miss the wave that threatens the region late Friday into early Saturday, and the ECMWF was off on timing and position with the wave associated with the upper low.

      Of course even this is not 100% yet. I’m not sure if we’re done seeing adjustments.

      1. Thanks TK. Definitely another unusual setup for this time of year with the strength of that main shortwave.

      1. We’re going to lose the NW flow and the regular troughs and cool shots in favor of a more westerly flow and flat ridge a little further east in the central US. This is stage one of what will be a 2-part pattern change. I’m working out the details of how I think stage 2 goes.

        1. Does this pattern support more or less thunderstorms chances than before? Or there is no correlation at all?

          1. It depends. I think in this case it may support more overall, but I’ll get into the reasons why as things evolve.

  24. New post! Made some adjustments. I tried to anticipate model error the last few days and only got it partly right. The end result, had to make changes for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. 😛 Bleh!

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