Friday Forecast

99 Comments

6:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)
A warm front crosses the region today and a cold front follows it on Saturday. The warm front will be more active, producing fairly numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms from midday into tonight. The cold front will be less active, producing only isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern areas Saturday. High pressure moves back in by Sunday, dominating through Tuesday, with warm to hot, dry weather. At this point the conditions continue to look ideal for viewing Monday’s solar eclipse here, which will be a partial in southern New England with 60-65% of the sun covered.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly midday and afternoon. Highs 72-77. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern areas during the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 77-82 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W late.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)
Showers/thunderstorms possible August 23 with a cold front. Fair, cooler then warming again August 24-26. May turn wet by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
Will have to keep an eye out for possible tropical systems as the pattern could support something near the East Coast, otherwise mainly dry with temperatures near to above normal.

99 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Some schools in the path of the eclipse will close on Monday. I never can understand why southern schools regularly open in August.

    2. Agree, Philip. My relatives in the south also agree. We were talking about this the other day. They feel August is often more oppressive than June. Either way, summer is traditionally June July August

  8. Oak Bluffs fireworks delayed from today until Sunday. Apparently, dry weather is needed for the set up as well as the show itself. The humidity increase is noticeable here on the Vineyard.

    1. Dry weather is actually more essential for the set-up than it is the show. But watching a show in wet conditions is less enjoyable so this is probably the right move.

  10. Soooo does anyone have experience with sky lanterns? I would not have considered them last summer but we have had enough rain this summer to be safe……I think. Thoughts?

    1. I see them flying off Salisbury and Hampton all the time and sometimes in Newburyport. I’ve never heard of a problem being caused by one.

      And it’s wet enough this year to be safe.

      1. Sure,
        But where do they come down? And does anyone bother
        to find them and pick them up, or do people just willy nilly
        Pollute the landscape or ocean with lanterns?
        Just asking as I know nothing about it.

          1. Adding that when my youngest thought this would be a good tradition, my thoughts were the same as yours. I worry about fire as well and TK helped with that.

  11. Latest HRRR is projecting 2.11 inches for Boston Later today with the bulk of it
    coming around 8-11PM or so. Hmmm

    Doesn’t bode well for the Sox game tonight.

  12. I wonder what met enthusiasts in the western and central Gulf of Mexico region thought of the 00z EURO ……

  14. Why is the HRRR so bad?

    One run it shows Boston receiving over 2 inches of rain.
    On the next run it shows LESS than 1/10 of an inch.

    In my mind that is PATHETIC.

          1. Not sure where that is coming from.
            I was looking at Invest92L from the HWRF hurricane model and this is what it looks like
            at 0Z on 8/21.

            https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2017081806/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_92L_23.png

            Clearly not the origin of the CMC system.

            This is from Mike’s weather page and it clearly states storm 92.

            https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92

            Sorry, But I’d trust the Hurricane mode before
            Mike’s weather page.

            Something ain’t adding up here.

            Let me check the other hurricane model

            Yikes, that’s even worse.

            Frankly I don’t know where the bleep those
            plots are coming from.

            Perhaps TK could enlighten us????/

  18. I don’t know what’s going to happen later on (this evening into the overnight), but the dewpoints advecting northward into NYC and NJ are running 75F to 80F. Wonder if someone in southern New England is going to see a several inch rainfall event in the time period listed in the parentheses.

    1. Perhaps someone SOUTH of Boston. 😀 😀 😀

      I actually want it to rain, but I’m not feeling it for Boston. We shall see.

        1. Block Island just got hit pretty good.

          I’d be interested to see what this particular radar looks like again in 4 to 5 hrs.

          1. PLENTY of moisture available, but do we
            have sufficient lifting in place? Have to get that
            moist air to rise enough to realize the potential.

            We shall see.

      2. Awesome info as always JpDave !!

        Yeah, look at those dewpoints.

        Lots of moisture potentially to be squeezed out. I don’t recall a surge of dewpoints this high just to our south in a while. I’m a bit concerned. Hopefully, the lift or a trigger to wring that moisture out doesn’t linger over one area too long later on.

        1. YUCK! that’s all I have to say.

          I am just so thankful that it is not 95 degrees to go
          with these dew points.

        1. Indeed, but it does appear the main action will be
          to the South and South West of most of the area.

          That, however, does not preclude possible down pours
          in part of the area. This remains to be seen.

          Clearly, we do not require severe thunderstorms to get
          copious rainfall from tropical type down pours.

          So far, it does not appear to be materializing up this
          way.

          Will be monitoring ye ole radar. 😀

  21. Regarding the question about where the CAT 3 hurricane comes from for southern New England according to the CMC, I believe it originates as an eddy on the patio of an outdoor restaurant in San Juan, Puerto Rico… 😛

      1. IF one believes the HRRR, the main rain this evening in Boston would be from about 8PM through 1AM. This is one short range model notorious for being either spot on OR DEAD WRONG.

        If one reads the NWS discussion, I “think” that they believe it.

        The 3KM NAM delays it until closer to 9PM or perhaps a bit later. So, if one goes by the NAM, they may get an “official” game in.

        I for one, have no clue on these models today.

        Here is the NAM loop. You can see the times.
        0Z = 8PM, 1Z = 9PM etc.

        https://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-2-10b4bb86b7.gif

  24. It’s almost 5PM. Me has this feeling that the Sox get their game in tonight. 😀
    Of course, there is time for things to change rapidly.

    We shall see.

  25. Ok, now there is some serious rain coming out of my and nj
    If that holds together in any way. SNE will get drenched tonight.
    Will it hold off long enough for the sox Game?
    I am hopeful, but it will be close.

  26. I have this evening and tomorrow left on Nantucket, I am sad that its almost over, Yesterday was my last day of data collection, all my stuff in the lab are packed up and ready to ship on out of here for Sunday. I can say that I learned so much out here, I learn alot more when I am out actually doing science now than being told in a class room. Last summer and this summer both helped remind me why I am doing this ( as well as other things) Each time with a semester that was rough. I can only say that now that I am done with this portion of this research, I am now looking forward to possible trip to upstate NY 🙂 This summer has just been a blast, but now someone thats been use to temperatures no higher than 80 on this island with a sea breeze, going on back up into Hot Billerica is going to be a shock to the system lol Still can not believe there is only two more weeks of summer Break.

    1. Matt, I love that you embrace the experience and your passion. I have no doubt you will be an amazing success and a fine example of what we can look forward to for the future of this country.

    1. You’ll be fine. Light rain should end shortly for at least an hour, perhaps longer.
      They WILL get the game in, at least an official game. I don’t know what kind
      of foolery they will perform when the “real” rain gets here. Good luck and enjoy.

      2-0 Sox in top of 3rd inning.

      1. Awesome–thanks for the info–best place for hyper local weather info–will be back this winter–unless I’m at Fenway again during questionable weather.

        P.S. thanks TK for last week’s North Conway forecast–it was spot on…got a little wet at Storyland, but not too bad and we were well prepared for the possibility!

      1. Great game now. 7-6 lead, hope we can pull this one out. Credit to Addison Reed for settling things down.

    1. I certainly thought that the sox would get the game in. It wasn’t even close
      to being an issue. In fact, the rain was basically a NO show here.

      ALL day long my grand total was 0.01 inch. An absolute deluge. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Hmmm, now hrrr wants to unload 1.32 inches on Boston over the next couple of hours. Damn now it wants to rain and there is a slug on radar approaching rapidly! Damn, I think I will have to
        close the windows! NO! NO! NO!

  33. Not too sure anyone expected 4 to 8+ inches of rain on Cape Cod in just a few hours late last night. Holy deluge. Texas-style!

    This Sox team is not that bad. People give up far too early in games. Play it out. Play it hard. I’ve seen them counted out twice this week and both times they came back to win.

    Updating shortly.

    1. I have no problem with their ability to come back when they are down, but I don’t like it when they get themselves in the predicament in the first place, which has become a (bad) habit much of this season. Sooner or later, luck will run out and the rally will fall short at the worst possible time and it could cost them a pennant…or worse a World Championship.

    2. In my view, we have been watching one of the most athletic teams in Red Sox history for three or four years years now. Baseball is a difficult game and the competition is fierce.
      Enjoy it!!! 🙂 :):)

      2. Agree. It all comes down to the hottest teams in August and September. The Sox are 13-2 in August. Enjoy the ride that’s what makes the game so great.

  34. Something to monitor in the long term (currently days 8 thru 10) …..

    A set up that would have some disturbed weather off of the SE U.S. Coastline (originating from the mid latitudes) that mills about and perhaps begins to transition to tropical. Meanwhile, a fairly sharp central US trof, potentially sharpening the flow along the U.S. East coast.

  35. The Sox and Yanks sure do play some interesting ballgames together. The Rivalry is back.

    As TK mentioned… what a deluge on the Cape last night! I think we just quietly witnessed one of the most significant Northeast regional meteorological events at least of this decade last night. My jaw dropped when I first saw the numbers.

    1. There was non stop thunder and lightning, and it poored here on nantucket, saw most of the activity to the north though.

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