Thursday Forecast

110 Comments

2:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)
High pressure centered over southeastern Canada and a low pressure trough aloft gradually weakening and sliding eastward combined for a cooler than normal and dry weather pattern for the next 5 days.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind light N with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-52 interior valleys, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Wind light N with coastal sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 48-52 interior valleys, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-77, coolest coast. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s but some upper 40s interior valleys. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
Humidity and warmth increases. The main potential precipitation threats would come from a potential tropical system offshore of the East Coast pending development near Florida but this is still uncertain, and the remains of Harvey which is expected to impact Texas soon.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Indications are for generally above normal temperatures with limited chances for any rainfall.

110 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. GFS gets Harvey to a CAT4 Hurricane to the Texas Coast.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017082406/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_9.png

    Euro, a strong Trop Storm or pehaps barely a cat 1.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082400/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_3.png

    CMC, Cat 1 or perhaps low end cat 2

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082400/gem_mslp_uv850_scus_9.png

    NAm CAT 2 or Cat 3

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017082406/namconus_mslp_uv850_scus_45.png

    HWRF hurricane mode, CAT 3

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2017082400/hwrf-p_mslp_uv850_09L_18.png

    new hurricane mode, borderline Cat3

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017082406/hmon_mslp_uv850_09L_14.png

    1. It must be getting close to school.

      I look at that SST grid and think it’s a great real world example to have a class on.

      It hits ….

      Coordinate plane graphing, ordered pairs (x, y)
      Evaluating an expression 9/5C + 32. (Converting C to F)
      So much algebra, like knowing 9/5 is multiplying C
      Order of operations, knowing multiply before add

      I’ll have to make a mental note 🙂 🙂 for spring. It reviews so much 6th grade curriculum.

  8. Harvey is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf this morning. A very dangerous situation looks to be unfolding for the Texas coast.

  9. Latest from the NHC places maximum intensity at 85 mph.
    Personally, I think that is way too low and at the very low end of
    the forecast models.

    I have a pretty strong feeling that the NHC ups the intensity forecast with
    the next update.

  12. No, Vicki, I was not in Chicopee this week, unfortunately.
    No winning lottery ticket.
    No limo.

    I guess I will be showing up for school next Tuesday.

    1. hahahahahaha

      I just saw that. I heard it was first reported to have been sold in Watertown. I figured we might have a better chance then. So sad.

  15. That is a ridiculous amount of money for one person to receive. I wouldn’t even want that much money, too much responsibility. I just want to win enough to pay off my student loans and then I can finally live comfortably.

    1. AceMaster we have win for life in CT on a scratch off game and its 5,000 a month for the rest of your life which would be fine for me. I agree with you I would want all that money and responsibility.

    2. I very much agree, Ace. Mac wasn’t outspoken except on a few things…..the secret to a very good marriage when married to me 😉 One thing he was quite outspoken about was that large amounts should be broken up so more could benefit.

  16. Thanks TK
    Harvey really getting its act together and the waters in the Gulf are very warm and not too much wind shear so I would not be surprised to see a category 2 boarder line category 3 at landfall. Rainfall going to be a big story with this system. Last major hurricane to hit the U.S. Wilma 2005.
    This day in weather history Andrew made landfall as category 5 in South Florida.

  18. I am holding a good thought for those folks in southeast TX. This system formed and died and got in the Gulf and BAM its getting better organized warm waters little wind shear all favorable for even further strengthening than we have seen so far.
    Past few runs of EURO makes a landfall in Texas emerges back over the Gulf with second landfall in Louisiana.

  21. I am not very good at reading forecast models, but, if I am seeing this correctly, the GFS and ECMWF models both have a tropical system forming off the Florida coast, intensifying and heading in this direction in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame of next week basically in the same positions.

    Is this what I see?

        1. I couldn’t tell you. Possibly, I suppose.

          It was so lost in the models, I don’t know if it is the remains of that wave or something else. We’d need someone way beyond my skill level to definitively answer
          that question. 😀

  22. Here are tweets about what you were referring to from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    While things are really quiet over the next 5-7 days by later next week we’ll have to watch a tropical wave now off the Bahamas.

    Some of our computer models show something lurking offshore as our big high pressure slides east next Wed-Fri.

  23. As I suspected, the NHC has upped the intensity forecast of Harvey to a Major Hurricane, Cat 3 115 mph.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/1500Z 24.0N 93.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
    24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
    36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
    48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 95 KT 110 MPH…INLAND
    72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
    96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
    120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

    Scale: http://imgur.com/a/TOEl5

  29. Aircraft reconnaissance data indicates the rapidly intensifying Harvey is now a hurricane. Certainly matches the satellite presentation.

  30. Harvey new forecast intensity to 125 mph

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/1800Z 24.4N 93.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
    24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
    48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
    72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
    96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
    120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

    Link to the whole discussion. NHC expects Life-Threatening flooding with isolated
    amounts of rain up to 30 inches!!!!

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241748.shtml

  31. I know the EURO op run hasn’t gotten intensity correct …..

    I hope it doesn’t get track right. It stalls it right along the coast on the 12z run at 72 and 96 hrs and maintains an intense system ……

    1. I have seen some comments about this re-emerging off the TX coast sometime early next week after the stall out and then eventually making another landfall somewhere along the gulf coast.

  33. Measured against its (EURO’s) pressure predictions, at 120 hrs, it has Harvey about 25 my more intense than near the Texas coastline. (953 vs 978)

  34. With the Euro run not complete, it has 35 inches of rain along the Texas coast
    somewhere between Galveston and Corpus Christie. BAD news.

  35. YIKES!!! If the Euro is correct, this could devastate the Gulf coast from Corpus Christie NE all the way to New Orleans. It keeps it “Just” off shore along the Gulf.
    Very very dangerous. Again, IF the Euro were to verify.

      1. This could be quite a blow to New Orleans as they would be
        to the East of the center with Southerly and SE winds
        pushing in the water.

        1. I just looked back at the 00z run of the euro and it’s fairly similar to this 12z run. It’s just that the 12z run has MUCH lower pressures. But, that’s at least 2 euro op runs in a row with this scenario.

  38. With ocean temperatures near 90 degrees with limited wind shear, and nothing stearing this thing or eating away not surprised. Looks like what finally makes it move out is a cold front.

  41. This tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan pretty much says it all about 12Z EURO run.
    The new European model is downright scary for Texas. Landfall near Corpus Christie then back out to sea and up toward Houston.

  42. I have to laugh at a couple things this afternoon from an observational standpoint…

    Not on this blog have I seen this but in other places on the net that something “unusual” is happening because Harvey is intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico. Unusual? How? It’s hurricane season, you have an existing system over normally very warm water, and atmospheric conditions favor development, which I might add is a completely necessary process for transfer of heat in the atmosphere’s neverending attempt to attain thermal balance, which I might further add is a normal physical process. So, how this is “unusual” is beyond me.

    Also, shark sightings. We see a fin, or a seal being successfully hunted, and we freak out. No it may not be pleasant to watch blood rising to the surface of the water when a seal meets its end because of its natural predator. But this happens. It’s nature. We act like there is some kind of wrong being done because sharks are hunting in their habitat. As a society, our reaction to sharks is puzzling.

    In summary, the end of the world is at hand if hurricanes occur during hurricane season or sharks swim in the water they live in. Take note! 😛

    1. Well stated. Yup, definitely unusual to have a system intensifying in the gulf.
      Never have I seen that before. 😀

  43. People who are saying it is unusual for a system to intensify in the Gulf forgetting Katrina which got up to a category 5 hurricane before making landfall as a category 3.

    1. Re storms intensifying in the gulf:
      Everyone who has not yet read “Isaac’s Storm” about the 1900 Galveston hurricane simply must do so. Katrina was virtually a replay over 100 years later and further north up the coast.

  44. Hurricane intensity chart. This is good to have handy. The reason I post this is
    because of the 18Z NAMs coming out now.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

    The standard 32KM NAM has Harvey making landfall at 969 mb
    The 12KM NAM at 964

    And then there is the 3KM NAM.

    Well FEW MORE FRAMES HAVE COME OUT.
    Still off shore at 20 hours and down to 931 MB !!!! With still some room to intensify
    more.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017082418/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_20.png

    931 is top end CAT 4 and getting very close to CAT 5 territory.

    1. Not sure it has been mentioned, but Harvey is RIPE for spinning up a number
      of tornadoes. Yet another danger this storm poses.

  45. some people online are mistaking the extreme intensification of Hurricane Harvey and harvey going into Texas stalling and then going back over the gulf of Mexico then restrengthening. The weather channel has said this would be a first. Meaning first on record. People are mixing up the two. Tells you how dim witted people are.

  46. Usually those tornadoes are EF0 EF1 and not those long tracked tornadoes with these land falling tropical systems and are to the right where the system makes landfall. Should be a tornado watch issued for south east Texas sometime tomorrow.

    1. I’m virtually certain there will be a watch. They typically occur in the feeder
      bands to the East of the center wherever stronger convection occurs.
      They can be stronger than an EF1, but EF1 would probably be more typical.
      We shall see.

        1. I would certainly expect several tornado watches throughout the duration of the event. As JJ said, usually lower end tornadoes are the main threat from tropical cyclones.

        2. Here is some info verifying this:

          6. Are tropical cyclone tornadoes weaker than midlatitude tornadoes ?

          In general, it appears that TC tornadoes are somewhat weaker and briefer than midlatitude tornadoes. During the period 1948-1986, the percentage of TC tornadoes that reached F2 or greater intensity on the Fujita scale was 26% (McCaul et al. 2004), while during a roughly comparable period (1950-1976), the corresponding percentage for all U.S. tornadoes was 36% (Kelly et al. 1978). In addition, there have been no F5-rated TC tornadoes since reliable records commenced in 1950, and only two F4s. There have, however, been numerous F3s, and some of these have caused many casualties and much damage. Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility that a future TC might spawn an F5 tornado (Gentry 1983 , McCaul 1991). In Florida, in particular, the most significant tornadoes tend to occur with “hybrid” cyclones or tropical cyclones with some hybrid influence. This usually means greater westerly shear in the storm environment which is believed to be favorable for stronger, longer-lasting tornadoes. Hurricane Agnes in June 1972 was a minimal category 1 hurricane with considerable hybrid influence and it produced the most F2 and greater tornadoes in a single day in Florida history (Hagemeyer 1998, Hagemeyer and Spratt 2002).

          1. Btw, here is another little very interesting tidbit on the tropical cyclone spawned tornadoes:

            10. Why are tropical cyclone tornadoes especially difficult to forecast?

            TC tornadoes are often spawned by unusually small storm cells that may not appear particularly dangerous on weather radars, especially if the cells are located more than about 60 miles from the radar. In addition, these small storms often tend to produce little or no lightning or thunder, and may not look very threatening visually to the average person. Furthermore, the tornadoes are often obscured by rain, and the storm cells spawning them may move rapidly, leaving little time to take evasive action once the threat has been perceived. ( McCaul et al. 1996, Spratt et al. 1997).

  47. 3km NAM is to be totally avoided for any tropical system. Completely useless as it was not designed for tropical features given its domain. The regular NAM is also considered unreliable for such storms, although it’s better with them than its 3km cousin.

    1. That may be so, but I find it interesting that the intensity is virtually
      the same as the HMON Hurricane model. 😀

      No matter, it isn’t going to be fun down there.

  48. The EURO and some of the EURO ensembles forecasting Harvey to make two landfalls.
    I think were going to be seeing gas prices go up.

    1. still forecasting 125 mph

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 24/2100Z 24.7N 93.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
      12H 25/0600Z 25.5N 94.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
      24H 25/1800Z 26.7N 96.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
      36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
      48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH…INLAND
      72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
      96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
      120H 29/1800Z 29.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER

  51. Gas won’t do much in New England I don’t think
    The refineries down there will have to go offline a bit. But we get our gas from refineries in NJ.

    1. Very scary situation down there with the rapidly intensifying storm and also the amount of rain they will see due to the stall.

  54. The 00z GFS op run has now joined the EURO in bringing Harvey back out into the Gulf after landfall #1, re-strengthening it with a 2nd landfall further northeast up the Texas coastline.

  55. This could rival Katina if not worse in terms of damage and potential life loss if people don’t take the warnings seriously. Days upon days of rain and wind. Pray for those folks who decide to ride it out.

    1. Indeed ….

      Down to 950mb, 3mb fall in past 1 hr.

      Scary because I don’t know if the winds have yet responded to this latest, ongoing rapid intensification.

      1. Winds fields appear to be confined to a small area so far thankfully. I think the big story will be the massive amounts of rain and storm surge.

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