Friday Forecast

189 Comments

8:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)
A disturbance moving across the region this morning will produce cloudiness and even a few showers, then high pressure overtakes the weather for several days resulting in a cooler than normal and dry weather pattern.
TODAY: Lots of clouds and a passing shower in some locations morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80. Wind light N with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-52 interior valleys, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s but some upper 40s interior valleys. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
The pattern during this period will support more warmth and humidity, but we will have to watch for 2 potential impacts from tropical systems, and in this case impacts can range widely from remnant moisture to an actual storm. One will be possible remnant moisture from Hurricane Harvey which will be impacting coastal Texas for the next several days. Another will be a possible tropical system forming off Florida’s East Coast which may eventually try to move northward up the coast or possibly remain offshore. Plenty of questions yet to be answered regarding both of these.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
Indications are for generally above normal temperatures with limited chances for any rainfall.

189 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. Felt like fall this morning. A very tranquil stretch of weather that we’re in, and yet, much going on in the weather department. I’ve been glued to Harvey, but for our interests here, I’m also very interested in the potential tropical/hybrid storm developing off the Southeast. I wouldn’t totally rule out something like what the CMC shows. Last night’s UKMET and even ECMWF trended in that direction as well. Plenty of time to watch that, at this point most indications still point to offshore but I’m a little uneasy about it.

  5. SPC has not yet issued any tornado watches in conjunction with Harvey, but
    this tornado outlook map suggests that they may:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1503664954638

    Harvey from Brownsville, TX Radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BRO&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25061084&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Last advisory from NHC had Harvey at 110 mph.

  6. Btw, TK EXCELLENT call on possible showers this morning.
    It was RAINING lightly as I walked from the parking lot into the office
    this morning. 😀

    1. I don’t know if any of the TV mets mentioned even the possibility, but the one on WBZ did not who was the only one I watched before I left for work.

    1. The last pass also recorded a higher flight level wind than on the previous advisory.

      Wouldn’t be surprised by an intermediate advisory soon to upgrade it to a major hurricane.

      Following recon info on tropical tidbits. Click recon info. Fascinating stuff.

    2. Scary to say the least.

      Where is all that raining going.

      3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
      middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
      with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from today through next
      Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
      Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
      information on the flooding hazard.

      Storm surge warning

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092407.shtml?wsurge#contents

  11. San Antonio ……..

    Seems they are in that tight western gradient of tremendous rainfall.

    Having flashbacks to NYC and whether they were going to get a few inches or few feet of heavy snow in past winters.

  13. Thanks TK.
    We may have a watcher next week as TK and others have talked about.
    Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    While #Harvey is the big story now – east coast will have to watch tropical wave off FL that will drift north.

  14. Just wondering. Is New Orleans under the gun for a Katrina repeat in terms of water? I have been hearing that after Harvey mills around the Texas coast he will head back out to sea then move east and strengthen a bit then make landfall again?

  17. This would not be good what the 0z EURO shows.
    Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    The European is the worst case scenario for #Texas with TWO landfalls over the course of the week, both as Cat 2/3 hurricanes.

  20. Already one tornado warning a short time ago on the Texas coast. Were going to see plenty more to come.

  22. Data from a NOAA hurricane hunter plane indicates that Harvey has strengthened to Category 3 intensity. I’d expect to see that at the next NHC update.

  25. Interesting. No major hurricane on the intermediate advisory. I don’t agree with that… Not only does the dropsonde data explicitly support Cat 3 intensity, but people will naturally react in a different way if the storm is given that “major” label.

  26. The HWRF Hurricane model has Harvey coming on shore as a 941 MB
    hurricane about 10-11 PM tonight.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017082512/hwrf_mslp_wind_09L_6.png

    The HMON Hurricane model has Harvey coming on shore about 8PM as a
    922MB Gorilla!!!!!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017082512/hmon_mslp_wind_09L_5.png

    I cannot say how valid either one of these models and/or depictions are. I just
    post for general information.

    FWIW, the HRRR brings it onshore at about 967MB which seems OUT TO LUNCH
    given that it is already at 944 MB. And that lends some credibility to the hurricane models.

  29. I am surprised, but the SPC Mesoscale discussion about a possible tornado
    watch has expired with no watch being posted. So far, I guess it is not warranted.
    I suppose that could change later if the conditions develop to support it.

  31. This is not good tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    12z Euro with a maximum area near 60″ of rainfall in the next 7 days in South/Central Texas. Unbelievable. #harvey

  32. I would be VERY SURPRISED if this is not a CAT 3 with 5pm update after reading this tweet from Levi Cowan
    NOAA dropsonde measured surface pressure of 944mb in #Harvey. 3mb lower than last pass from the same plane.

  33. Harvey is now officially a Category 3 storm with 120mph winds on the 19z position/intensity update.

  36. I think when this lists comes out 6 years from now were not going to see Harvey on the list as it will be retired.

    1. Finally. I wonder why the watch was not posted before
      the MD expired. When I looked there were no MDs and no Watches.
      I guess bad timing on my part as they were probably in the process
      of issuing the watch.

  38. The Watch is out until 2pm local time down there. No doubt a new watch will be issued once this current one expires.

  40. It’s interesting to watch the run to run changes, even on the EURO.

    I think the EURO, compared to its last 2 runs allows Harvey to make slightly further inroads into Texas after landfall #1, probably because the southwest 500mb ridge isn’t projected to be as strong.

    The EURO on the 12z run doesn’t have the upper low/trof swinging down into the Great Lakes to tug on Harvey as much around days 3 thru 5. Thus, instead of the 2nd landfall being east of Houston, today’s projected landfall is projected southwest of Houston, seemingly not very far from landfall #1.

    Now with that closed low/trof passing Harvey by, I think it allows the remnants of Harvey to hang around east and northeast Texas into next Saturday !!!! and it doesn’t allow for much of a connection to bring its moisture to New England.

  42. The eye has never looked better.

    I know the big story will be the flooding rains days from now, with that said … I wouldn’t want to be in the northern or eastern eyewall of this thing at the shore.

  43. Just looked at Ryan Hanrahan’s Twitter page. There is an awesome, 3-D GIF of the eye of the hurricane posted about 7 minutes ago. I don’t know how to get that link from that tweet. Maybe some could post the link for that satellite GIF loop.

    1. Is this a realistic number or is the model off target? Five feet of rain is terrifying if it is truly a possibility.

      1. My Euro service spit out a max of 42 inches, but I have had
        some trouble with the accuracy of that service.

        Even so, 42 inches is off the charts.

  45. The problem is many models are spitting out insane totals. Sure 60 might be high but certainly achievable based on track and the number of days that it’s going to rain.

    1. ALL models are spitting out in excess of 20 inches. How much more is up
      for grabs. No matter which model is correct, this will be a disaster.

  47. Thoughts ….

    I think the last hour has seen a wobble west.

    I just hope the forward motion doesn’t slow in the next few hours.

    1. Tom I was just watching a zoomed in radar loop very carefully.
      To me, it look as if it has at least temporarily stalled.
      Not good, if that is the case.

      1. Houston has a population of about 2.3 million and Corpus Chriti
        about 325,000 with countless more in the metro and surrounding areas. This is awful.

  50. I feel like, and anyone correct me if I’m wrong, but you can add Harvey to hurricanes like Andrew and Katrina that were almost dead not too far from the U.S. Coastline. They had been ripped apart by shear and were close to being completely killed. And somehow, they survived and evolved into major hurricanes.

    1. I disagree about Andrew as I followed that one from the coast
      of Africa all the way in. What I can add is that it intensified just before
      landfall to a full Cat 5 whereas it was previously thought to be a 4.

  52. Taken as a whole, no contest …. I think Katrina easily is a stronger system than Harvey. Even storm surge, Katrina bests Harvey easily.

    I wonder though if somewhere down the road, the NHC post storm analysis will show that at LANDFALL, Harvey was stronger than Katrina.

    2. This reminds me of Hurricane Charlie – strengthened rapidly to a Cat 4 on its final approach to landfall in SW Florida back in 2004.

      This storm is indeed going to be more powerful than Katrina on landfall.

  58. 130 mph sustained winds, Cat 4 near landfall……and to think that 48 hours ago the models were projecting this to be a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane upon landfall. These people did not have a lot of time to prepare for this.

  61. Stupid question I know…but I only ever come here for weather. Does verizon no longer carry weather channel. Is there a channel covering this?

    1. Just switched over to CNN and MSNBC quickly, Vicki, and I think they are providing continuing coverage of the storm. I am following live coverage from Corpus Christi and Galveston streaming live on-live, although they keep losing the signal.

  66. Not to take away from the major weather event, but the flavor of the real Pats is being showcased during this “dress rehearsal” game, a.k.a. exhibition week 3.

    These guys are the real deal, not that we didn’t already know this.

  69. 107 mph wind sustained reported Port Aransas, TX.
    Giant buzzsaw EF1 tornado and this thing is just crawling along at a snail’s pace.

  70. Making landfall now over San Jose island just north of Port Aransas. City of Rockport on the other side of the bay is in big trouble.

  71. I had thought landfall at 8:00 pm. Finally, coverage is back on news channels and if reports are correct it has yet to make landfall…..just the eyewall now.

    1. This is MSNBC because without TWC it is all I can find so maybe it is incorrect about not having made landfall

    2. With each bit of news, I actually find myself taking a moment for a very deep sigh. I pray for everyone in the path of Harvey

  73. Landfall doesn’t occur until the center of the eye is over land. I am reading it’s now only moving about 5 mph. Scary stuff.

    1. Thanks Hadi. I did know that but as a nonweather station, I wasn’t sure if MSNBC had the correct info. Who’d have thought I’d sooooooo miss TWC

          1. Per Corpus Christi radar loop, Rockport is squarely in the NW side of the eye wall, probably seeing ENE or NE hurricane force winds and tremendous storm surge.

    3. That is not good…looks like that is the area that will(and is seeing right now) the worst impacts from this.

  75. Yet another recon plane just passed through the eye, getting in another set of data just prior to landfall. Land falling at 940.7 mb.

      1. 300,000 live in Victoria. The shelters are full and the report I’m hearing is many have gone back to their homes.

    1. Very impressive landfall. And now, have to wonder with torrential rains extending a bit inland, if the brown ocean effect is going to kick in for perhaps the first 30 to 50 miles inland beyond the intercoastal waterways.

        1. A phenomenon where a tropical system can maintain or strengthen over land due to the landmass having enough heat through ground moisture and warmth to continue to support the heat engine of a hurricane for a short time after landfall.

  77. Landfall is coming soon, and the storm will start to weaken before long as the majority of the circulation moves over land. We’ll have to wait until morning for a true picture of the wind and surge damage. And this is only phase one. Phase two, probably more dangerous, is the multi-day and potentially historic rainfall event to come.

  78. The roads in this area of Texas are all still full according to Google Maps traffic data. Pretty soon driving will be impossible. Really hoping that “traffic” is actually a weather adjustment automatically made by Google, because to have that many cars on the road would be a complete disaster.

    1. I don’t understand how they did not open all roads out and why there were mixed signals …according to news reports. I know I keep mentioning Hugo but SC set a standard that should be followed.

    2. I think that is a mistake with google, maps, they can literally go into your phone and track you in the cars.

  79. Basically a giant EF2 tornado parked over Rockport for hours. Damage is going to be catastrophic.

    Report from KIITV: large tree fell on the center of a modular home in Rockport and the family is trapped inside. Emergency responders cannot get to them in the current conditions.

  80. Correction to what I said earlier: Largest reported wind gust so far was 125 mph at Aransas Pass at 8:30PM. As that was two hours ago and south of the eyewall, I’m sure there have been higher gusts since.

  85. The recon plane is making yet another pass through the eye, getting in another set of data before the eye gets over land. Data should be arriving soon.

  88. 938.8 mb to the south of the eye and 941.6 mb to the north. On that pass, the plane appears to have flown over the beaches of the barrier island.

    I am absolutely amazed by what this particular hurricane did today. The intensification to landfall and what came ashore is ….. Wow !

  92. The mayor of Corpus Christi just did an interview and what can I say, that guy is completely clueless. He says he did not order a mandatory evacuation of any area of the city because it would be “bad for business”. I know what will be bad for business, people dying because they didn’t evacuate! He is also ignorant of the basic facts surrounding this storm. Recited that there would be an 8 foot storm surge, yet couldn’t state how high the seawalls were and refused to concede any chance of flooding. Assumed that the storm will be over and everything will be just fine tommorow, because it doesn’t seem he knows about the long-lasting rainfall threat. On live TV, doubted the validity and need for the boil water order issued. And he doesn’t seem to be working, because he asked the TV news crew for information on what exactly was happening. If someone on the coast there dies, this mayor needs to be held responsible.

    2. Horrific. I am amazed in general at the lack of knowledge from the officials in TX. They certainly have had enough experience

      To be honest, they were being told if they remained to write SS and name, etc on their forearms. That should speak volumes

      However, I don’t know the extent of reporting. Individuals on blogs as close as yesterday am we’re still thinking a TS so not big deal. Folks in Austin and Houston area were commenting it would not affect them in any way.

  93. fascinationg Hurricane in Harvey, and loving my access to the weather channel instead of the stinking Accuweather crap that verison pulls while at this hotel. I do not like everything about the weather channel, but like seeing the photo’s and video’s and no need to look at different news outlooks.

    1. oh and it will be interesting on how what ever forms off of Florida next week if it forms or not and if it comes up the coast or if its pushed out to sea. I am thinking weak and pushed out to sea.

  94. This thing could go anywhere but the latest GFS is especially scary. Has it right where it is now, hugging the coastline, in 3 days after temporarily moving inland. Situation will only get worse if it reintensifies.

  95. KIIITV now reporting the Fairfield Inn in Rockport was heavily damaged with 128 people inside and they had to be evacuated to hurricane shelters.

    1. Just awful, Mark.

      I had heard the roof of a sr living facility collapsed. I did not hear if it had been evacuated and pray it was.

  97. It appears for now New Orleans will be spared of any kind of devastation, etc. If I understood the radio this morning, the mayor is not going to take any special precautions or evacuations unless Harvey’s forecast track radically changes.

    That is certainly good news given Katrina in 2005. Government officials have learned a lot since then. Although NO did get hit hard awhile back by a routine thunder storm if I am not mistaken.

  98. Few comments…

    Thoughts with those that had to be there, however other than essential people, I’m not sure why anyone else was still there. ??? Maybe the complacency factor?

    I saw some of TWC’s coverage. It was ok, but I wasn’t impressed with the way they go about talking about all of it. Even a storm as serious as this can be made to be misunderstood based on wording, and they were not doing a good job wording their reporting whatsoever. It isn’t that hard to just give the facts without making it sound like something it is not for the sake of ratings, but unfortunately the ratings game only intensifies with the magnitude of the weather event. Grr. Not happy with media at all.

    Updating…

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