Saturday Forecast

45 Comments

10:42AM

Altering format slightly today to group the last days of August and the Labor Day Weekend together.

DAYS 1-6 (AUGUST 26-31)
High pressure will remain in control for the last 6 days of August with fair weather and below normal but pleasant temperatures. Active tropics will not impact this area as Harvey weakens and sits over eastern Texas producing major flooding, and a possible developing system near Florida would be kept south of New England by the middle of the week, except possibly some cloudiness, with high pressure holding strong.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-58, coolest interior valleys. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind light NE to E.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-57, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 7-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-4 / LABOR DAY WEEKEND)
Current timing suggests cold fronts passing by around Friday September 1 and Monday September 4 with high pressure dominating in between. The first cold front would likely have limited moisture and the second front could possibly have remnant tropical moisture with it, producing more widespread showers. Humidity levels may be up especially second half of the period. Temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Current indications are for warmer and drier than normal weather during this period.

45 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK

    Just spoke with my daughter who lives in Missouri City, Tx. It’s about 30 minutes southwest of downtown Houston and not far from SugarLand. The tornado last night touched down within walking distance of her house. She described the debris as scattered, not straight line. Strangely, she said that the sun was poking through the clouds while she was talking to me and was not raining. She was on her way to H.E.B., a Texas sized version of Wegman’s. Sent a picture of the empty shelves once she got inside, but they were being restocked, so at least they will have fresh veggies to eat in case their garden gets flooded later lol. I will keep you all posted after I talk to her later. She is aware that the worst is yet to come.

      1. Thanks, Matt. I am hope that the old adage that lightening doesn’t strike twice in the same place will apply here.

  5. I’ve noticed in general a misconception that the out-in-space rainfall totals were going to literally occur all at once. Nope. The massive rain totals will be taking place over a period of days, and the totals will in general be less than model forecasts (with few exceptions). Does this mean there won’t be major flooding? Not at all. There will be. But don’t expect the entirety of the area to be wiped out. There will be bad areas, and many areas that cope fairly well.

    Katrina? No, it won’t come close overall to the magnitude of damage and loss of life that occurred in that hurricane.

    Andrew? No, not really. Andrew was a unique tiny hurricane that flattened a very populated area. There has been major damage from Harvey, but this will not match the total damage that Andrew caused.

    CMC wants to take Harvey’s remains up to the northeast and pass them mostly south of New England. GFS wants to take Harvey’s remains west, then south, then west again, into the Pacific. Model differences? I’d say so.

    Don’t get too concerned about what may be Irma soon, based on the NAM model. If you haven’t learned about the NAM and tropical cyclones by now, or any model and a tropical system that has not yet formed, then there is no hope for you. 😉

      1. With a torn ACL he is done for the season. If it were any of the other Boston teams, their season would already be done, but with the Pats its NEXT MAN UP!! 😀

        The only local team that I will ever say this: they’ll be ok. 😉

  9. Thanks TK. The track of potential Irma is still just close enough to interest me, especially on the CMC which has led the charge on this and which other models have gradually caught on to. Very likely OTS, but I’m not willing to give definites yet.

    1. We’re in an interesting spot…

      Long term deficit, medium term surplus, short term deficit.

  11. I would be curious though if Harvey hit New Orleans instead of Texas if there would be much more serious outcomes like Katrina. Yes, lessons have been learned since 2005 but recently this summer the city got inundated with flooding from a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm. I am not certain their new mechanical system is foolproof to withstand major flooding.

  12. Pending the development, or not, of that system near Florida, the timing of events on my mid period of the forecast may change. Just letting everyone know.

    I’m thinking the system may get its act together enough to spread a good shield of clouds in around midweek which may interrupt the sunnier stretch, but then it gets kicked east sooner and allows that cold front I estimated for Sep 1 to be here a day earlier. Time will tell on this but something to watch.

    1. Hard to believe that even though drought is long behind us that we could actually use some of that rain. Our climate seems to make less and less sense these days…at least to me.

      1. It makes less and less sense because the media sources we have are reporting things with less and less fact and more and more sensationalism.

        That is the problem.

  13. And an update from Texas. My SIL reports that they have received about 6 inches so far and expect lots more over the next 5 days. They have a great levee system where they live, so barring another tornado, they will be wet but safe.

  14. Apparently some in the Houston area who haven’t been hit by the heaviest rain bands are calling this “Hurricane Hardly”. They are in for a rude awakening!

  15. Red Sox lose again. Not only are they getting into bad habits just by losing, but they are getting CLOBBERED…no pitching or hitting. Now I am starting to worry about Sale. I hope he isn’t going to have postseason issues ala Price. Has he ever pitched in the postseason? now that I think about it.

    They had better have at least a halfway decent September.

  18. Euro and GFS agree that something may start to develop coming off Africa later this week. Ridge across the Atlantic tends to make us look vulnerable as it has been. Something to keep an eye on in the long term.

    The situation in Houston especially continues to get worse with now 20+ inches of rain in some areas there and still much more to come and an additional 5 deaths in the last 24 hours. Weatherbee, hoping your family continues to stay safe along with others that live in that area.

      1. Always appreciate your maps and images.

        Thought of you as we drove by DQ in Quincy to and fro the Fore River Bridge yesterday on a visit to family in Hull.

  19. I’m not sure what’s best for Texas in the coming days …..

    1) to have Harvey’s circulation not regenerate, as it moves back towards water. At first thought, this may logically seem the obvious choice. However, I think this keeps the outer feeder bands further says from the center and potentially allows them to be stronger- thereby affecting a larger area.

    Or ….

    2) hope the center gets back over water and intensifies somewhat, with the idea that the circulation may tighten and perhaps re intensify the core, but ease the intensity of the outer rain bands.

    Heartbreaking to watch the local Houston TV coverage.

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