Thursday Forecast

73 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
Cold front comes through tonight and results in a significant difference from a final day of August that feels like summer and a first day of September that feels like autumn. High pressure tries to hold on for the weekend but the remains of Harvey will have to traverse the region in one form or another, the details of which are yet to be determined, but the current leaning is for part 1 to miss to the south late Saturday and for part 2 to come through with a few areas of showers Sunday morning and midday then a summery feel returning for Labor Day.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated mid to late afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 76-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-57. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 66-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s interior valleys to lower 50s coast. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers morning-midday. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 7-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
A more humid pattern with episodes of showers/thunderstorms possible. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Same general pattern expected with temperatures near to above normal.

73 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Well, let’s hope for the east coast. No scenario is great but the last thing the gulf needs is another system.

  6. TK and all – how far north do the remnants of Harvey go? I am wondering if they get into NH and Maine or even VT and if the timing will be later. Have a child planning some hiking/camping time and it would sure help to have an idea. I do know it is still uncertain so am just looking for a loose scenario.

    Thank you!

    1. Right now, I would say all of New England is liable to get wet on Sunday. That day may earn a “washout” label throughout the region. Looks to be only a one day event though. Saturday and Monday look dry, cool Saturday, warm Monday. Hope that helps 🙂

      1. Thank you, Wx. It sure does help. I’ll pass this information along to my son. I know he was hoping for two days together rather than a split but this will make it much easier to plan ahead.

  7. Thanks TK. The HRRR is keeping it mainly dry today save for maybe a sprinkle this afternoon. I think that’ll be the way to go. As TK said, a little taste of summer today, before the full on feel of fall the next couple days. Another taste of summer looking likely early next week.

    Irma continues to organize, and will be upgraded to a hurricane on the 11AM advisory.

  8. Something else to watch as the remnants of Harvey move though… we should keep an eye on the track of its “center”. Areas near and north of the low center should deal with a raw, cool rain. To the south, however, it will be warmer/soupier. We could see one of those pesky scenarios where we get a lot of shear, and if a little bit of instability can build, we run that low risk for an isolated tornado. It would not surprise me if that begins to come up in NWS discussions. Tropical cyclone remnants producing tornadoes in New England are unusual, but not unheard of… ironically, it was the remnants of another very famous slow moving Texas storm, Allison in 2001, which produced the only such SNE tornado in semi-recent times. That was actually a rather intense tornado, an EF2. Just something to keep an eye on.

  15. 12z GFS continues its quest to blow a hole in the atmosphere with a sub-900mb Irma. Track is mostly out to sea this run, but it brushes both Bermuda and New England before hitting Atlantic Canada. GFS is the northern/eastern side of the guidance envelope.

  16. 12z GFS brings Irma as a 957 storm east of Cape Cod then makes a landfall in Nova Scotia. The only consistent thing with the GFS is it makes the turn up the eastern seaboard. The landfall however past few runs has been Maine, The Outer Banks of NC Nova Scotia. 0z EURO did not show the turn and would be a bad storm for Cuba.

  17. Here’s what I take from the models :

    If the deep trof on the 6th and 7th doesn’t get Irma and steer it OTS, then someone in the U.S. will be hit by Irma.

    Because after the 7th, looks like a pattern change to me where OTS in the Atlantic comes off the table.

    1. Yes.

      Signs suggesting that after a mild, extremely low humidity ending to August, the pattern change I believe is coming will give us a fairly warm and humid stretch in September.

  19. Summer never goes quietly and you always get that one last blast of heat and humidity before Fall arrives. At least it being September to me the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power it does in June July and August.

  21. I just went to the Memphis radar to see how heavy Harvey’s rains were and there were five different thunderstorms that must be showing rotation on radar because there were 5 different tornado warnings.

  23. 12z EURO takes Irma into the Gulf. 12z GFS and Canadian turn it up the eastern seaboard with offshore tracks.

  24. 12z Euro is a true worst case scenario. Just as GFS is the north/east side of guidance, the Euro is the south/west bookmark. It’s just much too early to say right now.

    Tom mentioned the tornadoes in the Southeast associated with Harvey. One of them in the past hour was tossing debris to about 25,000 feet as confirmed by dual pol radar. That would normally suggest a violent (EF3+) tornado.

  25. Irma will likely be upgraded to a major (Category 3) hurricane at the 5PM advisory. An extremely impressive bout of rapid intensification, especially given how far east it is. Once this bout ends (should be very soon), intensity should level off for the next few days as it deals with somewhat drier/more stable air and cooler waters, as well as contends with eyewall replacement cycles, all of which may even temporarily weaken it a little. As it goes into and especially as it pulls out of its west-southwest bend late this weekend and early next week, it will probably ramp up some more. Storms like this have the potential to push the upper limits of intensity potential, and it would not be a surprise if Irma reaches category 5 intensity somewhere along its journey.

    1. I am virtually certain it becomes a CAT 5. based on what? Call it a combo of gut
      and checking the charts. It will be a formidable storm no matter what.
      The big question is where does she go??????

    1. Except it is missing the Euro’s input, which clearly takes it into the Gulf.

      We shall see.

      To me, the Euro looks to take Irma to the Gulf coast, somewhere around
      Mobile, AL. Just my guess based on the charts. I could be reading them wrong.
      Again, it is one model and more than 10 days from any possible US landfall.

  29. I know it’s the 18Z GFS and it is the GFS and it ain’t so hot with tropicals, but it has
    been pretty consitent with Irma. Have a look at these 2 frames as it
    approaches SNE and Comes about over Boston:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017083118/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_39.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017083118/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_40.png

    This would be a worst case scenario for all of Eastern New England and most
    epecially SE MA, the Cape and Islands.

    1. 920s MB up through the low 940s. WOW! double, triple WOW!

      Of course this is like 9 days out. He he he
      But still it certainly paints a what if, doesn’t it.

  32. 6z GFS is an outcome all of us would be happy with it. 0z GFS bad for Outer Banks of NC VA Tidewater Chespeake Bay area. The way it comes it looks similar to Isabelle in 2003.

  33. Good morning. Happy meteorological fall! Sure feels like it out there today.

    Irma is weakening just a bit this morning, something I mentioned yesterday as a possibility. It’ll likely be downgraded just a touch to a strong Category 2 storm on the 11AM advisory. A little bit of additional weakening is possible over the next couple days, but all indications remain that it will be a powerful hurricane 5-7 days from now. We really don’t know anything more about its long term track this morning than we did yesterday. It’ll be a few days yet before we do.

  34. The update will be at mid afternoon today.

    Didn’t have adequate time this morning.

    Picking up a vehicle later today. 😀

  36. Well I hope he is wrong and its a fish storm.
    Latest 12z GFS brings Irma up here and makes a landfall just east of RI as 970 mb storm. The GFS has been consistent with bringing Irma up the eastern seaboard. Where it has not been consistent is some runs we have a landfall somewhere on the east coast others have a fish storm.
    Be interested to see 12z EURO if it continues the trend of making the north turn to the eastern seaboard like the 0z run did.

  37. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan about the GFS ensembles.
    The GFS ensembles with a bifurcated Irma solution. Some up the coast… others into Florida. Still looks like a Havana to Halifax threat.

  38. Something smells with the euro. Check out the initialized pressure of Irma???????

    What is going on. It has it as 1002MB while Irma is at 972MB@&#*&*!(&@*&#*&!*(@&#*&!*@&#*&!@(*#&((*!@&(*&*#

  39. I am curious if the EURO will follow the 12z runs of GFS and CMC and make the turn up the eastern seaboard.

  40. JPDave, to your point, outside of the GFS, all of the global models are failing badly on the initialization of Irma. This is a known bias for east Atlantic tropical systems, especially on the Euro, and results simply from different initial condition schemes that these models employ. However, by 72 hours, the GFS and Euro are almost equal on position and intensity. So the error seems to not be having a long term impact. But it presents another source of uncertainty in the forecast.

  41. After weakening a little this morning, Irma looks to have re-intensified this afternoon as an eyewall replacement cycle completes. The new eye is clearing out nicely on satellite.

  42. I lost track of models and how well they did with Harvey. There was a comment somewhere — not on here — that the euro did the best job with him. Is that the case?

        1. It’s one model and it’s 10 days out.
          We’ll worry more when it gets closer and we have
          a better handle on what it will do.

          1. Oh – I know that well. I was just making an observation. If I have learned nothing else on WHW, it would be that it isn’t over until the fat lady sings….and often that is on top of whatever we are awaiting.

  44. All 12z runs have Irma on eastern seaboard. EURO at hour 240 with 920 mb storm east of central Florida. CMC just a tad north of EURO with 965 mb storm and GFS with a landfall just east of RI.

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