Monday Forecast

153 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
Hurricane Jose will make a run at New England but the most likely path is a right hook just to the south later Tuesday into Wednesday and then a broad anti-cyclonic (clockwise) loop of the storm to the south of New England over several days. The ultimate path remains somewhat uncertain and will depend on a ridge of high pressure to its north and eventually Hurricane Maria to its south (though this effect will not likely be until after this 5-day period). The impact on the initial pass of Jose will be rough surf along the coast, gusty wind, and some rain, with heaviest likely over Cape Cod. The timing is mainly later Tuesday through Wednesday for this, with only slow improvement as the storm turns back to the east then south as an onshore flow takes place between the storm and a large high pressure ridge to the north.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind light E
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Slight chance of showers mainly southern MA southward. Lows 58-65. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest late-day favoring southern areas. Highs 65-72. Wind NE increasing to 5-15 MPH and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may be heavy at times especially southeastern areas. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts 20-40 MPH except 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH and locally stronger over southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, may be heavy especially early over southeastern areas. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially southeastern areas
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers far southeast. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Mainly dry into the middle of the period with temperatures mainly above normal. Will have to watch for some possible wet weather later in the period. Too early to know where Hurricane Maria will go. There may be a threat to the East Coast. Will discuss more in comments sections.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
Possible wet weather early in the period, then a trend back to dry and mild to warm.

153 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. Jose looking less than fully tropical this morning, and based on recon data, is not producing any hurricane force winds. Combine that with the latest track… and we’re really not looking at much of an event here. We deal with worse almost every winter.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum… new recon data indicates Maria is close to if not at major hurricane intensity.

  4. On radar Jose looks pretty unorganized. Still a storm for sure, but appears a bit “shredded”. Also does t appear to be a lot of convection.

  5. I think recon just showed Jose is down to a TS. NHC didn’t have that happening until sometime Wednesday morning. Should start to get a little rain in the morning, with light a breeze. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning looks to be the closest pass. By then it could be a basic fall/spring storm, like WxWatcher said.

  6. Maria is expected to do serious damage to Puerto Rico as a cat 4. Hopefully she doesn’t do the same to the East Coast.

    1. The concern being the height of the high tides during the possible storm
      times here? Because as far as a storm goes, it would be rather routine.
      As someone stated above, not worse than a typical Winter N’oreaster.
      One thing pointed out by Harvey last night was that all of the trees are still
      fully foliated. Harvey indicated that with the winds expected, it could
      cause trees and/or limbs to come down whereas they might not with similar
      winds in the Winter.

      Even so, in all honesty, I am not too worried at all. Worse case scenario, a few trees or limbs come down causing isolated power outages with some minor
      coastal flooding. In short, rather routine. I don’t even expect anything
      remotely resembling the “Perfect Storm”.

      I am more concerned about Maria.

  12. I love the last sentence of the first paragraph of the 11AM NHC discussion. Maximum surface winds for Jose from the recon plane were 58kts… so we’ll set the intensity to 65kts. Because, logic 😉

    That decision means Jose remains a “hurricane” for now. Tropical storm warnings issued for some areas.

  13. Couple thoughts…
    Jose is already transitioning slowly to non-tropical. It’s also pulling dry air into itself from the Mid Atlantic States.
    Jose may save the East Coast from Maria. More on this later…

    1. You mean the “Dumbbellicane” may actually verify? With Jose looping back
      to the US mainland forcing Maria more OTS?

      Is that the general scenario on this?

      1. Thanks. If the HWRF comes close to verifying (see loop above), then Maria heads out to sea and does not affect the US mainland.

  14. I am not pretending to know how accurate the NAMS total precipitation algorithms
    are and especially related to Jose, but they are laying down some impressive
    rain totals for the 12Z runs.

    12KM NAM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017091812/namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

    3KM NAM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017091812/nam3km_apcpn_neus_20.png

    And the 3KM NAM is not complete at 60 hours with rain still falling in Eastern MA

  19. Tk when you get a chance could you post the weekly blog that SAK puts out as I would like too read his thoughts on Jose. Many thanks .

  20. There is an amazing photographer in Sutton who I have had the pleasure of getting to know….not to mention filling my home with her photos. She is traveling the western part of the country this week and took the photo below in Yellowstone. She said she had not been prepared (maybe she said ready 😉 ) for the snow on the trip. I thought some here would enjoy this photo.

    https://i.imgur.com/aJBM35c.jpg

  22. Mist/drizzle here in Boston. Now enough to wet the pavements.

    TK – Does this blossom into showers for later this evening?

      1. The only small positive is that it currently seems to be smaller than Irma, but that won’t be of any help to those 2 islands its near.

        Poor Puerto Rico.

  25. Tom…any word if school closings is a possibility for Wednesday? The only reason I thought of it since technically Marshfield is under the TS Warning and maybe your district might consider it just on the side of caution, etc.

      1. Of course if this same setup were 3 months from now, EVERYONE would be having a snow day! 🙂 🙂

  26. Oddly,

    The Euro shows JOSE re-intensifying once again after it’s right
    turn SE of New England and its subsequent Southerly and SouthWesterly turn.

    Hmmm what will this do to Maria. Dumbellicanes once again?

    I Love that TK term!!

          1. They would start to attempt to go around each other in a counter-clockwise direction. This would turn Maria north sooner, pull Jose west then southwest, slingshot Maria northeast, and leave Jose behind in no-steering for the 3rd time.

    1. Another fun euro run …..

      How many weeks straight of tropical systems to track since Harvey emerged into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Has it been 3 to 4 weeks now ?

  31. Sorry been out of the “loop” a bit… haha get it? boooooo… 😛

    I was lawn-mowing. Yard waste collection is this week and with all the early leaves down and having done some other pruning yesterday it was a mess out there! Had to beat the rain.

      1. Tarspot combined with post-drought stress. Doing a # this year. Next year will be a different ballgame.

        1. I’m thinking gypsy moths will make their way firther north next year unless the stuff they used starts to kill them. How are winter moths up that way? We didn’t seem to have them but there was nothing left after rhe gypsy moths ate everything

          1. Funny thing is that it took Keith to point out how bad our trees are. We only have younguns in our yards since it is a new development. I posted a pic and it was Keith who got me to look past our yard. And I usually pride myself on seeing the big picture. Go figure

  32. I am yet to see any leaves going from the trees in my backyard/marsh. usually by the end of september the stuff in the marsh changes.

    My thoughts for Fall September 22- December 21
    leaves 2 weeks ahead of schedule and not as uniformly cut do what what TK has alluded to with disease and drought stress.
    Last parts of September, watch tropics, warm, temperatures above average generally, Precipitation below to near normal.
    October: Temperatures above average, some swings of cool and warm as fronts move in from the north battles with a ridge in the southeast. Precipitation, below normal but picks up late in the month.
    November, averaging above average temperatures, but trending cooler towards the end of the month, Precipitation normal to above normal as the pacific jet stream is extremely active.
    December to the 21st, Temperatures around to above normal Battle zone/stormy Cold from the north fighting warmth to the south. Early season winter weather. Precipitation above normal.
    Over all fall, averages around normal precipitation by the end, with above normal temperatures.

    1. You are too far north for gypsy moths. And what timetable are you giving leaves. They have been at least two weeks late for the past several years so ive lost track of what folks use for schedule.

      Are you back in class, Matt? Have a GREAT year!!!

      1. Yeah back in classes, doing two classes one in which is a grad course Marine Bio and ecology and globalization and the environment. I am also writing my paper/thesis and putting togeather a presentation by November 5. GRE’s Working in the lab that I worked in last year under the grad professor that I want in grad school, if I stay at Umass oh and my other job. its why I have not put my usual fall maps.

  34. Aircraft data indicates Maria has intensified at a near incomprehensible rate today, and is likely a Category 5 hurricane with a central pressure near to below 930mb.

    We’ll see what they go with at the 8PM intermediate advisory, but if she’s not set as a Cat 5 then, I’d almost guarantee it at the full advisory at 11PM.

  35. Maria officially a Category 5 storm per the NHC now, with a full special advisory package to be issued shortly in lieu of the regular intermediate 8PM advisory, reflecting the remarkable increase in the storm’s intensity.

      1. Technically, Maria is only the second for this season. It is possible, in post-season reanalysis, that Jose will also be upgraded to a Category 5, as it flirted with that intensity a number of days ago when it passed northwest of the Caribbean. So, two is not unheard of, three would be unusual though. 2005 had four, which I believe is the most. This stretch we’ve gone through from Harvey to Maria certainly ranks among the most impressive ever observed though. I’m sure more stats about how extreme this stretch is will be forthcoming in the days ahead.

        Also, if Maria makes landfall on Dominica, which is highly likely within an hour or two, this will be only the second season on record (2007) to feature two Category 5 storms making landfall at that strength.

    1. I do as well, or at least I expect it to meet the same fate as islands like St. Martin and Barbuda. Those extreme Category 5 winds are very compact, but they are going right over the island. Similar to what we saw Irma, even some of the best infrastructure, which Dominica doesn’t have, will be flattened in winds like that.

  37. I think Jose has had a 6 hr period of some re intensification. Pressure back down to 973 mb, the outflow to the west, north and east is tremendous ….. Some convection is wrapping perhaps a 1/3 rd of the way around the southern side again and the cloud tops have cooled on a majority of the western side.

  42. I’m a little surprised they didn’t forecast a more rapid intensification than they did. The cyclone is under ideal conditions in the current pattern, just like Irma was (and Jose for a time).

      1. They were talking about Jose being tropical for another 24 hours when it’s already pretty much transitioned.

    1. NWS in Puerto Rico calling for sustained winds to 125mph with gusts to 175mph in the city of San Juan on Wednesday with 12-18″ of rain and isolated amounts up to 25″

  44. Hurricane Force winds with Maria extend only 25 miles from the center. That said, Puerto Rico is about 40 miles wide and 110 miles wide. That puts pretty much the entire island in hurricane force winds based on a direct hit and the WNW trajectory of the eye as it passes over the island.

    1. Actually the Euro sends her out to sea and gobbles up Jose after he hits us a second time. I thought the ECMF model track (orange triangles) in the spaghetti plot was the Euro but the track does not match what I am seeing on my eurowx.com account,.

    1. Now none of the models show much at all for us with Jose.
      Pretty pathetic if you ask me. yes, no, yes, maybe, no , yes , no and on and on it goes. wait until it is event time and look out the window. Then and only then
      do you know.

  47. Just took off fromLogan. Ceiling height at 400 feet. Broke out around 2000 maybe. Broken above. Now at 36,000 feet. Clear blue sky and sun shining. Should be over Albany best guess.
    Agree on Jose. Who knows. Just goes to show these hurricane and global models are basically just a suggestion when it cones to a tropical. Lots of variables go into stearing a hurricane. If the model doesn’t handle a handful of features correctly, the ultimate path and impact can be off by a lot.

  48. I’ve been very disappointed in the global models handling of Jose. None of them have done a good job. Poor representations of the storm structure, track, and intensity. The hurricane models (HWRF, HMON) have done alright. I’m not sure why the globals have struggled so badly with this though. It’s a complicated pattern, yes, so the track errors make some sense. But their insistence on strengthening Jose at this latitude and failure to recognize its increasingly extratropical state are not good.

    And give credit to the NHC where it’s due: they never bought the left hook or straight ahead path suggested by those global models. As it turns out, it’s ending up even farther southeast than what seemed likely for the last several days. Well off the benchmark.

    2. Agree. I totally thought that the NHC was out to lunch with their
      Easterly track. Turns out they were spot on.

  49. Jose is wreaking havoc on my football practice scheduling. Started looking into indoor space to rent but now with the shift east I am not sure that is necessary. Any idea on how much rain we will see tonight and tomorrow in the Kingston area?

  50. Now that the more Easterly track has been pretty much established, Jose is doing
    his best at throwing rain into our area. It is actually approaching pretty quickly:

    124 MI range:

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25097093&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    248 Mi range

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0Z&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25097097&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Here is a ragged looking Jose, but to me it looks closer to the coast than
    I expected?????

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

    1. We are in that rain shower, as depicted over Marshfield.

      I hope we can get something beneficial out of this, it has been dry for several weeks on the south shore.

  51. last evening Eric had the 40-60 mph wind line passing right through Boston with the
    20-40 mph range on the other side.

    40-60? really? I think that is rather generous with the winds.

    Serious HYPE imho.

    1. Yeah, after watching him and Harvey at 6pm yesterday, I was like …. ok, this is going to amount to something. But Harvey showed the wind projection and it backed it up. Marshfield went from a gust to 50 …. to 51 two hours later and then 50 again two hours later.

      I looked closely at the GFS and NAM and they still do bring the 40 mph gust contour to the south shore and close to Boston. Its contours that nose out from the center way to the north, northwest along the immediate shore nearly to Boston. It almost looks like the shape of an inverted trof.

      We are occasionally breezy this morning.

    1. If you click that box in the lower left corner, you’ll get some buoys just offshore the Delmarva area. They have some of the better sustained winds and wind gusts, with winds nearly 30 knots, gusting to nearly 40 knots.

  56. So it’s been raining in the city for about 1/2 hour now.
    It’s RAINING so hard that it has NOT even tripped my rain gauge yet.

    😀 😀 😀

  58. FWIW, the latest HRRR is showing more rain here and in SE MA than any of
    the other models. We shall see. 😀

      1. 12Z GFS and 12Z RGEM both give Boston “about” 1/2 inch
        while the HRRR wants to give boston 3-4 inches.
        Now that represents a HUGE spread.

        I’d lean away from the HRRR this time around, but let’s see
        what happens.

  62. Looking forward to the EURO ….

    Feel like the models today, in the Jose loop itself are tighter to the coast a bit. Fealt like yesterday, the loop had some eastern movement away from SE New England. Not as much eastward movement so far on today’s movement and not even as much southward movement in the loop, more southwestward. Wind field does not seem to get far away from SE New England at all.

  64. My colleague is planning to drive up from DC tomorrow – should she wait until Thursday to avoid the storm? I’d much rather have her here later if the driving conditions will be bad here in the afternoon and/or evening tomorrow.

    1. By Thursday most of SNE is completely done with the storm except Nantucket with leftover showers and gusty winds down there.

      1. What do you think about her coming up tomorrow though – too early? I think it’s about a 9 am drive – we have an am meeting on Thur she doesn’t want to miss but she also doesn’t want to drive into unsafe conditions. We are in Westford so inland – my guess is she’d be arriving around dinnertime tomorrow

  65. Based on the latest spaghetti plots, Maria eventually heads seaward, but still a very close call for the East Coast. It probably wouldn’t take much to shift her westward towards the coastline though I suspect. Why are wind fields so light if not non-existent this time of year? At least with winter storms the jet streams are strong and it is mostly just a matter of linking up.

    1. I asked the same question in a round-about way yesterday (you wrote it much better and clearer). I am curious about this, too.

    2. Jet stream usually depends on temperature contrasts. In the warm season, because there is less contrast in the U.S., the main jet stream usually retreats to southern Canada. As the cold builds south in autumn, the jet stream years further south.

  67. 15Z HRRR still unloads the rain.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017091915/hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.png

    CMC “About” 1/2 inch ALL over SNE, including Cape and Islands

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017091912/gem_apcpn_neus_9.png

    GFS about the same

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091912/gfs_apcpn_neus_22.png

    NAM as well.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017091912/namconus_apcpn_neus_22.png

    So the HRRR is on an island by itself. You be the judge. 😀

      1. If the eye goes just east of San Juan, they are going to get a terrible storm surge in the western eye wall, with incredible northerly winds.

  70. Look at the 850 mb temps in northern New England and all of the Great Lakes at hr 96 on the Euro.

    Like the heart of summer …. around 18c.

  71. Thanks Tom for your explanation above! 🙂

    I would say the NHC does well with tropical systems. It is difficult enough with winter storms when all the players are in place, so to speak.

  72. If Jose doesn’t come close enough to throw clouds back in here Sunday, it may reach 90 in a few locations. Doesn’t happen too often after September 15, but it has.

    New post!

  73. Uh oh ….

    If Jose hangs on too much AND loops back too far south and west of us, it’s going to sling shot Maria right up the coast (see hr 192). Thankfully at hr 216, the jet stream ridge is collapsing.

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