Thursday Forecast

4:59AM

Continued slightly altered format.

DAYS 1-6 (OCTOBER 25-31)
A frontal boundary will sit just east of New England today and low pressure will develop along it and move north northwest into New England with continued showers today, some of which may end up quite heavy. All if this gets out of here by Friday which will see the return of fair weather, which will continue through Saturday. The next trough approaches from the west, and although it will be a little faster-moving than the one currently moving through, it will be amplified and pull some tropical moisture northward, along with a possible tropical low pressure area. This will likely result in a significant rain and possibly significant wind event for Sunday night into Monday. Fair but cooler weather is expected by Tuesday to close out the month.
TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional to frequent showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with many showers evening, some heavy but favoring northern MA into NH. Clearing overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH but gusts 30-40 MPH and isolated stronger.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Drying out. Highs 58-64. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely at night. Increasing wind. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Possible strong wind. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s but turning cooler late.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 7-10 (NOVEMBER 1-4)
A weak system may bring some unsettled weather at some point during the first couple days of November with temperatures near to above normal. A cold front following this should bring a shot of cooler air in.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
A couple minor systems may bring some wet weather a couple times. Temperatures near to above normal.

98 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK

    .74 since midnight. No idea of total for week, but at least 3 inches plus what I missed yesterday.

      1. Previously, it looked like some heavy stuff was getting going to\
        our South ready to move in, but now??? Poof? I dunno

        Not impressed so far. Clearly there was plenty of rain to our West, but just not here.

    1. Can’t see. Blocked at work and my mobile wouldn’t load as it said:
      Sorry Twitter is taking too long to load.

  2. Here is the Ryan Hanrahan Tweet I posted earlier.
    All sorts of problems for the northeastern US shown this weekend. ECMWF shows a fujiwhara like interaction with 2 lows off coast!

  3. Is this new area of rain blossoming to our South going to pivot up here
    and become that main area of concern TK was mentioning???????

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25150548&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    OR was the blob that was sitting to our West earlier the main area of concern?

  4. This pattern reminds me alot of the 2012 winter pattern with the cold locked up in canada with storms traveling over the lakes with a more southerly flow than west or north.

  5. Really keeping my eyes on that Sunday-Monday storm. The *median* of the GEFS river guidance gives the Pemigewasset River here in Plymouth, NH a 53% chance of hitting major flood stage. That’s quite concerning, as we take those things very seriously here when even minor flooding will start sending water into the town. Still time for change. 12z GFS op run pretty much held serve though.

    1. I always followed the Pemigewasset River when I lived in Lowell, as it empties into the Merrimack River. Saw some high water levels in Lowell during spring and even summer, when it didn’t necessarily rain much in Lowell do to an event in the white mountains or spring snow melt.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    So, October was cork dry until Tuesday this week. Now, with this ongoing event and the expected rainstorm on Sunday and Monday, October will likely go in the books as higher than normal in terms of precipitation. Welcome to Boston. Welcome to New England.

    Last night’s Game 2 of the World Series was an epic battle. An instant classic. We’ve had some great WS in recent years.

    1. It was either Eric or Harvey but I believe this will go on the books as the warmest October on record at 62.8 degrees.

      It will be interesting as to what this means for our winter…if we even will have one per se.

      1. Indeed, this has been a warm month.

        I don’t think October warmth translates into winter mildness, or that there’s any correlation between October weather and winter. Taking a look at the big picture right now, we see a large area of winter-like (sustained) cold invading the northern midsection of the country. It appears to be taking aim at the northern Midwest rather us, though it should cool us down next week, too. Changes in the jet-stream could very easily transport that cold Canadian air to our parts. Maybe not for a while, but my hunch is that it will happen in November. Also, parts of Siberia are already experiencing winter cold. Hence, the polar air masses are building and poised to do their thing this winter.

        1. According to Al Roker this morning, Minneapolis is forecast to receive some descent snowfall in the next 24 hours which would be the first accumulating snow there since 2009. I looked it up and their average for October is only 0.6″ so at least it appears their winter is looking much more promising for snow than here in NE but I imagine every winter there is like that.

  7. Another potential midnight high temp at midnight double whammy coming Sunday overnight to make Sunday’s and Monday’s highs around 65F-70F ??, even if most of the daylight of both days is cooler.

  8. Joshua I agree great World Series game. When the Dodgers were leading going into the 9th I did not think the Astros would be tie the series up at a game a piece going back to Houston.
    Do not agree with the Joe Girardi firing although the Girardi haters are rejoicing today. Girardi never had a losing record in his 10 seasons as a Yankees manager including 2009 World Series title and a team that was not suppose to compete falling one game short of the World Series. His teams were always competitive.

    1. I certainly don’t know. They way this thing has behaved, I don’t know whether
      there will be tropical downpours or if it will be bone dry. I’d lean towards less rain than more down your way.

    1. Yup, DISGUSTING!! I am hearing reports that the team knew of this
      potential in the off season, but chose to do nothing about it.

      I don’t know how true that is, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

  9. JJ, Girardi was an excellent manager. He made a serious gaffe or two in Game 2 of the ALDS. He owned up to it (unlike Farrell – who never admitted fault), and thankfully the team didn’t suffer as a result. I’m surprised the Yankees would dismiss Girardi. He took the team far, and it has a very bright future.

  10. Joshua I agree with all of what you said. There have been rumblings there was some disconnect between Girardi the front office and some of the players. Girardi will have a job if he wants to as a manager or in television. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Nationals reach out to him to fill their manager vacancy. I will say this who ever the next Yankees manager is will have a young talented team.

    1. I hear there’s someone available ….

      Let me check my notes here …. I think the last name started with an F

      Fa ….. here it is …. Farrell ….. John Farrell ….

      Highly recommend him πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

      And some Sox fan from Jamaica Plain cant say enough good things about manager John.

      1. Tom a caller on WFAN in New York mentioned Farrell as a possibility to be the next Yankees manager. If he ever got the job and I doubt it those fans who hated Girardi will be wanting him back so fast.

      2. E X C U S E M E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
        Right, I can’t say enough good things about the “F” man.
        You know why he is the “F” Man? F him, that’s why. And the horse he rode in on……. What a bleeping piece of shit manager
        he was!!! I didn’t like him since day 1.

        I think the Sox would be better served with Cora than Girardi.

  11. No sun here. But seems rain may have stopped. We are just over 1 inch since midnight which puts us somewhere north of 3.5 for the week.

    I see we have a wind advisory for the area.

  12. There is not any huge correlation between October weather and winter.
    There is a minor to moderate correlation between October AND November weather with regard to winter temperature.

    There is one more push of upper level energy coming northward that should blossom rain through 7 or 8PM before it all lifts to the north and out of this area.

    As far as October warmth, Boston as of yesterday is in 1st place for warmest October on record by 0.4 degree F over the #2 slot. It remains to be seen if they will hang onto #1.

    None of the other top 5 warm Octobers were recent, so this year is standalone and due to the persistent blocked pattern, which we were in the warm region of.

    Here are the top 5 warmest Octobers at Boston as it stands now:
    #1 – 2017: 62.8F
    #2 – 1947: 62.4F
    #3 – 1990: 61.4F
    #4 – 1963: 61.1F
    #5 – 1954: 61.0F

    Boston’s warmest decade on record, the 1930s, did not place an October in the top 5.

    1. I do believe there is a correlation between November temps and the upcoming winter. If I am not mistaken, Barry has mentioned it on air from time to time over the years.

  13. Nice deluge again this morning in Coventry, CT. Another 2.29″ in the past 24 hours and 5.29″ total now for the last three days. Perhaps we can make a run at 10″ in a week following the Sun/Mon storm!

    1. Sorry – I hit post before I was finished.

      This is the headline on the Framingham Patch

      https://patch.com/massachusetts/framingham/s/g9ks7/ma-weather-outlook-wind-advisory-tonight?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert

      Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
      1 am EDT Friday…

      * location… central and eastern Massachusetts.

      * Winds… west 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 35 and 45 mph. A
      brief gust up to 50 mph can not be ruled out.

      * Timing… after 5 or 6 PM this evening until around 1 am.

      * Impacts… isolated tree damage will be possible given many
      trees still fully leafed. This may also result in isolated
      power outages.

  14. If your business permits and you can, maybe wear green tomorrow. Anyone in the city will not miss the green everywhere. Mayor Walsh declared it Devin Suau day on October 27 which would have been his seventh birthday. Devin lost his battle with DPIG last week. His hero was the green lantern. The pats lit Gillette green last Sunday. You can find his story with a quick search. He brought a world together at the age of six.

  15. Down to 49 here. Definite chill in the air.

    2.43 inches for the total event. I doubt there will be anymore, but we shall see.

          1. So much for WordPress.

            This was part of a wordpress list

            Here is a list of all the emoji that you can use on WordPress.com:

            <3
            was "supposed" to be a hear emoji.

            Word Press blows!!!

            1. I agree. I have a list of the emojis that are supposed to work but most do not.

              Thank you for your effort, JPD. That was very kind.

              Each day of this week in honor of Devin people on the #whynotDevin FB page have been asking that everyone perform an act of kindness for one of Devin’s three brothers. Today the acts of kindness are to be in memory of Devin.

              You just did one for him!!!!

  16. Did anyone get winds last night? I know we did not. There is a chair out front that blows over if you look at it crosseyed and it is still standing.

    Surely, TK, for this area you did NOT underforecast!

    1. Nothing as advertised. Some wind as we heard our very very old windows
      rattling a few times, but no great shakes.

  17. Good morning and happy Friday to all.

    Looking at the 0Z Euro regarding Sunday/Monday….things have changed.
    It has gone from a 2+ inch rain event to less the 3/4 inch for all of SNE.

    HUGE change and this is after Harvey warned us of this BIG
    storm coming.

    Let’s see what the 12Z run shows. Maybe the Euro burped last night????

    1. Is that as a result of a westward shift in track ?

      If so, I wonder what it shows for wind ? Could the core of the 850mb jet have shifted west and be over more land ?

  18. Question for our star gazer folks.

    At 2:30 on my regular nightly trip to you know where, I looked out the window which is something I always do.

    I do not recall ever seeing the stars as plentiful or as bright. The dipper was clearly present but there were other constellations also that I did not recognize.

    What struck me as even more odd is that I was not looking up but was looking out. Even the stars closer to the horizon that were dimmer looked to be just above the tree line.

    Is there a reason the stars seem closer to earth than usual?

    1. The only thing that comes to mind was the the sky was especially clear, allowing even the dimmer stars to shine through. No clouds, dust, smog etc to block
      the light. Just a thought.

  19. 12Z Euro features a 976mb system centered over NE PA just south of
    the upstate NY border at 6Z Monday. Pretty potent system, but centered nearly
    200 miles to our West. Hope this is not a sign of things to come for the Winter.
    That would be Brutal. Wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.

    https://imgur.com/a/o9S9h

    (Click on image to enlarge)

Comments are closed.