Saturday Forecast

103 Comments

9:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Discussion…
The 5-day run-up to Thanksgiving is here and many will be doing errands, finishing yard work, and perhaps doing some outside decorating and then comes the travel period for those departing or arriving for the holiday, so this is a high stakes period for weather impact. What can we expect? Variety, which is typical, but nothing that should result in any significant travel trouble. Let’s break it down day by day… Today, high pressure slips away and a warm front approaches, but it will take until tonight for its rain to reach the region so outside activities that need dry weather are a go for today! The warmest part of today will be tonight when the front passes and temperatures rise, and being in the warm sector will make the region very vulnerable to showers and even downpours as strong cold front approaches early Sunday. This front will cross the region from west to east by late morning and midday exiting via Cape Cod by early afternoon. The mild air of the morning will be replaced by wind and cold during the afternoon and this will continue through Monday, which will have a winter feel. A few stray snow showers may make a run at the higher elevations of southwestern NH and northwestern MA during the day, but don’t hear the word “snow” and suddenly think the wrong way. It will be a fine day for travel – just very chilly and windy. Look for dry and milder weather Tuesday as high pressure slips south of the region and we get a piece of “backside warmth”, relative to the season of course. Another cold front will cross the area Wednesday and may bring a passing rain shower as we’ll still be in relatively milder air, but it will turn colder again behind this system.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Clouds increase / sun fades. Highs 45-50. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain through midnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers after midnight. Lows 40-45 evening. Temperature rising into the 50s overnight. Wind light SE to S evening, S to SW 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with episodes of rain showers, a few possibly heavy, and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy mid afternoon on. Highs 55-60 morning. Temperature falling into the 40s afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers north central MA and southern NH. Highs 36-43. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the 50s but may fall late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
The front that goes by the day before will sit south of the region for 2 days and will allow a wave of low pressure to pass not too far south of the region and this will probably just bring a shield of cloudiness to the region later Thanksgiving Day and early Black Friday (November 23-24), but no significant weather problems are expected. More detail to come. Looking milder for November 25 and cooler November 26 as a cold front comes through during the weekend. During this time a short-lived blocking pattern may be establish and immediately amplify the pattern enough for a storm system to impact the region by the end of the period with odds favoring rain over anything frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Amplified pattern delivers a shot of cold air to end November then moderating temperatures as December arrives and the flow flattens again. No major storminess expected.

103 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. Interesting piece. I can’t place the genre. What would you call it?
      Techno jazz/pop/rock???

      I am confused? Is this an original piece or did he do his own arrangement
      of someone elses piece.

      Not for nothing, but it describes how I feel about the weather today/tomorrow.

      1. He wrote it. It’s original.

        And the answer to what you could call it is: Yes!

        Or as the artist responded: “I don’t genre my music. I just go for it!”

          1. The deep origins of the name indeed lie with D.R. Kaprekar and it is also the name of a game character.

    2. Thank you for sharing. Please tell 6174 that he has an amazing talent. If you close your eyes, you can feel the ebb and flow; and I’m not sure emotional correctly describes the finish ….but I cannot think of a better word at the moment.

      1. That is exactly what he was going for.. 🙂

        “One of my things is attempting to make indescribable feelings from music…”

        And he said thanks!

        1. He sure met his goal and exceeded it. I listened to it several times. You can feel the music even more than hear it

          1. And as you saw…..it was at a loss to describe some of my feelings. The ebb and flow hit home I think because, as anyone who misses someone knows, emotions move exactly that way.

            Simply amazing.

  7. Less than an inch of snow being shown across parts of SNE but certainly enough to get people in the holiday spirit with this 12z GFS run.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Will be interesting to see if 12z Euro comes closer with southern stream system around
    11/24. Not that it implies snow, but rather a fair vs inclement Thanksgiving weekend.

    1. Ha ha ha….sure….

      ALL I see are OTS jobs from Southern Stream and Cutters from Northern
      Stream. If I see another cutter, I am going to puke all over the place!!

      1. This pattern will be favoring low tracks north of this area for a while, except southern stream systems. But northern stream systems will be more common.

  9. Based on current radar, rain moving into western CT stretching all the way back to PA. Also getting dark here. Looks like it may be anything BUT dry later this afternoon.

    As for Wednesday, Barry has heavy rain with a high of 58 while Ch. 5 has widespread showers with a high of 48.

    1. Always easy to tell who’s following the ECMWF and who’s following the GFS more heavily for guidance. 🙂

  10. With both the northern and southern streams active, I don’t trust any calls of smooth sailing for the middle and latter half of next week. Will be a lot of players on the field, right now it looks like they don’t come together in such a way to cause many problems, but I’m watching it. This is not a pattern that often lends itself to extended periods of tranquil weather. Maybe it will in this case next week, but the details are TBD.

    Meanwhile, late tonight/tomorrow… today’s guidance is coming in quite robust on the LLJ with this storm. Not looking for a repeat of a few weeks ago, but gusts up to 50mph look very possible especially on the Cape and Islands. May result in some tree damage and a few power outages.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    This November reminds me so much of November in the Netherlands. It’s uncanny. Limited sun, temps often in the 40s. Gray nothingness for the most part. Not exactly uplifting, but to quote the famous philosopher William Belichick “it is what it is.”

    1. I love this weather so much. The grey of November as a backdrop for the rustic colors of the leaves that cling to the trees. It’s just magical.

        1. I guess I Am blind today. OR Inattentive. Or otherwise incapacitated. I read that line as just another city. 😀 😀 😀

          Oh well.

          I will submit numbers by then. I’ll be dead wrong no matter what I do. But it is still fun and then see who comes closest in the end.

          I’m kind of leaning low, but something may trigger a change between now and the deadline.

          I don’t like this ebb and flow pattern we are in.

          A storm passes North and it warms up, only to drag a cold front through and we cool off again, sometime even
          down right cold. No matter, next storm passes to the North. It is a brutal pattern if one likes snow.

          Sure, the same pattern in the dead of Winter may yield some snow, front end prior to warm up or perhaps a lucky wave on a passing front. I am NOT liking what I see so far and IF November is a clue, things better change and change fast.

  14. TK, this weather is conducive to incredibly photography. It’s often better than sunny weather. The remaining foliage against the backdrop of grey is spectacularly beautiful. My only issue with this weather is that it feels like it’s dark all day. Earlier today I saw someone putting lights on trees in front of their home. It’s early obviously, but I understand why he’s doing it.

  15. AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) Which one is not true about the Leonid meteors?
    A. Never strike Earth
    B. Travel at 160,000MPH
    C. Vaporize due to friction
    D. Next major display 2034

    2) What is the probability of a white Thanksgiving in Boston?
    A. 4%
    B. 12%
    C. 20%
    D. 28%

    Answers tomorrow AM.

    2. I’ll go with

      D
      A

      I’m assuming it means average for second question and not just this year

      Thank you Longshot

    1. It’s the next batch for overnight/early tomorrow that concerns me. I have to go to work in it. Yuck!!

      If driving, probably no biggie but I walk/T/walk combo. 😉

  18. Wind advisories have been expanded across the area with high wind warnings for the south coast, Cape, and Islands, in response to the increase in the wind potential with this storm.

  19. Judah Cohen projecting 64 inches for Boston–but says due to mixed signals it’s a low confidence forecast. So I guess that means he’s calling for beteeen 0-99 inches of snow for Boston.

          1. Has Dr. Cohen ever forecast below normal snowfall? I don’t believe so, so why stop now? 😉

            To be fair, Boston was +3.8″ last winter.

            I would be curious if he was at the SNE Wx Conference. TK, was he there?

            1. Yes he has forecast low snow before. He was not at the conference. I have never seen him there and I’ve been to every one of them.

  21. Absolute environmental tragedy of a week from the trophy hunting fiasco to the largest oil spill in South Dakota history by the KeyStone Pipeline. ( not a good week if you care for the planet that lets you live)

  24. Answers to yesterday’s AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) Which one is not true about the Leonid meteors?
    A. Never strike Earth
    B. Travel at 160,000MPH
    C. Vaporize due to friction
    D. Next major display 2034

    I believe the correct answer is C.

    2) What is the probability of a white Thanksgiving in Boston?
    A. 4%
    B. 12%
    C. 20%
    D. 28%

    The correct answer is A.

    2. C cannot be correct. They almost always vaporize, else we would be struck all
      of the time instead of just occasionally.

      The air heats up, in turn heating the meteor. The intense heat vaporizes most meteors, creating what we call shooting stars. … When meteors hit the ground, they’re called meteorites. Some meteors are bits broken off asteroids, others — mere cosmic dust — are cast off by comets.Nov 15, 2006

  25. I know this is the 6Z run and it is the GFS and it is for 16 days out, but What the bleep,
    let’s have a look see.

    Surface with 850 mb temps

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017111906&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=384

    500mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017111906&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=384

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017111906&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=384

    Since it’s so far out there, we’ll worry about whether it makes the turn up the coast
    or slides out just South and East of us later as it is highly NOT LIKELY to verify or
    even come close. In fact, it will likely be GONE on the 12Z run. But we shall see.

      1. I agree. At least here, we understand that you cannot take a model at face value, especially 2+ weeks out, let alone several days.

        But, I still like to look and watch and always will.

  27. Dr Cphen’s forecast has thrown me for a loop.
    Honestly not sure what to make of it.

    64 inches for Boston is a pretty bold prediction. I was thinking something
    around 35-37 inches or so, just based on the November pattern and taking a
    few indicators under advisement. I had not yet looked at Cohen’s stuff. I usually
    monitor that once we get into Winter.

    Really not sure what I will submit for the contest now.
    I’ll watch Eric tomorrow night and see what He and Barry come up with.

    At this moment, I’d still lean somewhat below average. Perhaps I’ll tic it up just a bit from what I was originally thinking.

    Just don’t know for sure yet.

  28. Pretty innocuous 7 day forecast…. Big woof. Routine November. Blah blah blah

    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/23722350_1521826151226360_6163408723657083675_n.png?oh=0ef084677e6c8613f52e97eebdb566f8&oe=5A9863C4

    HOWVER, looking at the NAM and the CMC, Wednesday evening could be
    pretty wet around here.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017111906/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

    12Z coming out now. We’ll see if this feature is still there.

    GFS and EURO do NOT have it.

  30. AccuWeather Quiz.

    What was the weather like in the Boston rea on Thanksgiving Day last year?
    A. unusually warm
    B. rainy and windy
    C. bright but frigid
    D. cloudy and damp

    Answer later today.

  33. some really heavy rain is moving on through Billerica.
    Shawsheen River is rather filled, good amount of rain in my area. marsh is filled with water around 3.5 FT at the old lake bed which usually at this time is maybe around 1 foot if its a good year.

    Then again some changes happened on the river up and down stream as dams were taken down. So what use to be normal might not be so normal now.

      1. With 50s now showing up this week, I am now wondering if November could end up average or even a teeny bit above. The last time I looked at the calendar this month ends on the 30th, NOT ThanksgivingDay. It probably wouldn’t take many above normal days to turn things around.

  35. Doing some errands with mi madre and the update will take place in the noon o’clock hour today. 😉

    Everything on track anyway so no drastic news to report.

  41. The warm front just barreled through at long last here in Plymouth, NH. We’d been mid 30s and light rain all night. Has shot up about 10 degrees in 10 minutes. Won’t last long; cold front will be right behind.

  44. That 6Z GFS nice set up is still there on the 12Z run, but suppressed to the south
    and elongated some.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

    btw, 12Z GFS now has “some” rain for Wednesday, but NOT nearly as much as the NAM.

    12Z CMC still on board with decent rains on Wednesday. Too bad it won’t be colder!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017111912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

    1. Assuming that happens, probably a good thing it won’t be colder given the travel plans that day… 🙂

      1. I suppose, but I’d take it anyway. 😀

        I can drive to Hopkinton on Thursday, even if it snowed 2 feet. 😀

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