Tuesday Forecast

46 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Discussion…
A couple adjustments will be made in this forecast. Giving more weight to the northern jet stream and less to the southern jet stream. I think one of the common difficulties the medium range guidance sets are having is over-forecasting the strength of southern jet energy and mistiming disturbances in the northern stream. So this is the current thinking: A mild west southwest air flow arrives today and boosts temperatures to the plus side of normal, something we have not seen much of this month. But this will be short-lived as a cold front charges eastward with an arrival time of Wednesday morning. While this is ongoing, a plume of moisture that had moved from the Gulf of Mexico to the waters off the US Southeast Coast will get drawn northward ahead of the front. As it starts to curve to the east, it should clip southeastern MA and RI with a period of rain Wednesday morning, but showers associated with the front should dry up as they try to cross the mountains to the west and north of the region. By later Wednesday, colder air will be flowing in and this will set up a dry and chilly Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. However another frontal boundary will approach from the northwest by late Thursday and some cloudiness will arrive in advance of it. Where I previously thought moisture to the south may fan some cloudiness into the region Thursday/Friday, I no longer feel this will be an issue. However, Friday may still turn out to have more cloudiness from advancing milder air from the west, and this should be here by Saturday for another short-lived stay.
Forecast Details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 54-60. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH mainly in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain likely Cape Cod and Islands and chance of rain remainder of southeastern MA and RI toward dawn. Lows 42-48. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through mid morning with a chance of rain RI and eastern MA except cloudy through late morning with rain more likely Cape Cod and Islands. Clearing late morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 45-53 morning, falling through the 40s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-32, coldest interior valleys, mildest coastline. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of brief very light rain NH/MA. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a rain shower late-day or evening. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Transition back to below normal temperatures in the November 26-28 period but I’m not sure yet of the weather details. Not completely letting go of a chance of a storm system the models still don’t see. Faster-flow may allow moderation the last 2 days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Low confidence. Fine line between a block and zonal pattern as we have talked about. Will re-evaluate but for now leaning toward mild followed by cold with an unsettled period in the transition.

46 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Watched the channel 4 Winter forecast presentation. Perhaps it was my mood, but frankly, I was not impressed with the presentation. I think Harvey and Dr. Cohen give a better presentation, whether or not their forecast is off or not. I guess I am just a grumpy old man. OF course management did not give them enough time to do much of anything at all.

    Figures keep dancing in my head. High, low, in between. Some one will get it practically right on the nose and I know it will not be I.

    1. JJ as always many thanks for this.

      I like his thinking re:

      The one thing I am watching closely is Sunday and Monday (11/26-27). A bigger dip in the jet stream coupled with a big ridge of high pressure over Greenland known as a -NAO is an intriguing setup. At this point not much is modeled but it’s not a bad idea to keep an eye on this window.

      Goes nicely with TK’s thoughts from above:

      DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
      Transition back to below normal temperatures in the November 26-28 period but I’m not sure yet of the weather details. Not completely letting go of a chance of a storm system the models still don’t see.

  8. JPDave when reading Ryan’s blog I was saying to myself both him and TK are on the same page with that time frame.

  10. Thanks TK. Beautiful day today!

    Quiet weather pattern at least in terms of sensible details. Very much lacking in storminess. Active as both jets are, nothing is lining up to provide much in the way of impactful weather around here.

    Not a very warm pattern though. Even through the next couple weeks, while there will be some above average days like today, I don’t see any prolonged anomalous warmth like we’ve become accustomed to at this time of year. November is actually running pretty close to normal so far, just a tad below. Should finish close to normal as well. Looks like a pretty low amplitude pattern from the last few days of this month through 12/10 or so. Would not look for much activity until at least then. Maybe we’ll load up for a more interesting run up to Christmas beyond then. If we’re going to hit our targets for snow this season, it has to start “on time”, which it hasn’t done in a few years. I think we’re seeing a lot of agreement from seasonal forecasts on that point.

  13. I’d been in the drier camp on tomorrow… looks like the ECMWF may win this one though. Right entrance jet positioning getting it done, pulling in that moisture from the south. And even with the timing, where before it looked like this would end by noon, now it may be a struggle to dry things out before 2 or 3PM, especially to the east. The morning is a definite washout in eastern areas.

  14. 7 day looks ok to me. No snow. Every day with no snow is one day closer to April. Best part of the cold and winter season?……when it’s over!

        1. Well, you know I have no use for it. Most people I know don’t either 😉 It’s a nuisance that’s tolerated by most. I wish I liked it, but I really have no use for November thru March in the northeast.

          1. Actually we do have quite a use for it. It’s a very important part of our water cycle and natural agriculture. Fact.

  15. I need a decent month of December as I though I was done with the business this Sunday but it doesn’t seem to be working out as I’m just getting slammed 5 estimates by Saturday with jobs already booked all weekend long . It’s been like this since patriots day .

      2. People do yard work up until Christmas a lot of times. I’ll need one more leaf blow and bed rake in 2 weeks or so when the last leaves come down.
        Friend of mine installs inground pools. He just finished one last week and is digging another one after turkey day. As long as there’s no snow on the ground, yard work can continue.

        1. i broke two shovels the other day when trying to do some last minute Gardening because the ground is solid lol

      3. Seasons are a changin. Couldn’t have asked a decade or so ago because you would not take the chance. I know this because Macs theory was if we wait, snow will just cover it. We are still mowing our lawn. Very late for a last mow…..well, from the looks of it not close to last

        1. Oh and leaves still falling. I would wait also. It is silly to pay to have leaves removed only to have more drop

          We don’t have leaves in this house. Woods are far enough behind us and our trees are ornamental.

          1. Paying that kind of money for a fall clean up I’d wait to but this fall has lots of obstacles, didn’t have this issue last season .

        2. We still can’t take the chance.

          The PDO is largely the reason for the mild falls and early winters recently.

          1. It seems the shift is consistent throughout the seasons. As you know I do not believe it is manmade but more of a natural shift. Other factors within I believe are manmade …just not the change.

      4. Some yards have not even dropped it’s like a month behind . It seems like it’s split some yards done ( like mine ) and other customers I have are usually done dropping at Halloween but not this year. I am getting multiple calls & texts looking for service and it’s quite stressful to be honest . I’ve become the go to guy and it’s good & bad lol

  16. Snow is what gives us lasting water like TK alluded to with the importance of snowfall and its melting for the groundwater There is a reason why the Rockies are struggling so bad its just a piece of it, but its a major contributor to the west’s trouble.

  19. Good morning, everyone!
    Happy Thanksgiving Eve!
    Just had a flash of lightning and a small thunder in Taunton
    Lightning detector just showed a strike east of Kingston.

  20. Does anyone know what is going on with the Weather Underground radar?
    I know it has been mentioned before here that it keeps saying “Down for Maintenance.”

    Do I need to start paying for it? Is there a comparable free radar out there?

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