Wednesday Forecast

83 Comments

8:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Cold front pulls offshore today and a seasonable chill enters the region during the next 24 hours then hangs out through this weekend. Continuing to watch the “threats” for late Friday and late Saturday but both look stretched out and more offshore than over this area. Precipitation shield from the Friday night system has a better chance as it looks now of expanding westward enough to perhaps reach the Boston area, but either way, not expecting significant snow. An upper disturbance lagging it all on Sunday may bring some snow showers.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Early showers exit. Clouds followed by clearing. Temperatures fall slowly through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-26, coldest interior valleys. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/mix/snow late-day and night, favoring southeastern MA and RI. Highs 37-43. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of rain/mix/snow favoring southeastern areas late. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to near 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Dry/chilly December 11. Still watching next storm threat for December 12-13 with mix/snow risk – too early for details. Drier or a few snow showers and much colder thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)
A cold pattern with a couple clipper type low pressure areas bringing snow or snow shower risks.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. I still have not written off Friday’s wave, and if anything I’m a little more intrigued by the latest guidance, especially the CMC and UKMET. These post-frontal waves, at least if my memory serves me right, have a tendency to trend west leading up to the event. Put me down for at least 0.25″ QPF at Boston late Friday through Saturday, with higher amounts lurking not far offshore and enough margin for error at this range that they could sneak onshore. Any accumulations of snow may be difficult near the coast, with boundary layer temperatures marginal.

    Of course, if I’m wrong and it goes the other way, then we just see a few sprinkles or flurries in eastern areas, and dry weather inland.

  6. Thanks TK !

    I think I’m more intrigued by the disturbance passing through Sunday. I think for Marshfield, its our best chance at first flurries/light snow of the year.

    It may precip Friday night/Saturday, but at least at my spot, with a light north – northeast wind off of the 49F ocean, the boundary layer will be too mild.

    Sunday though, the column will be very cold and we’ll probably have a land breeze.

    1. Its kind of a paradox though ….

      To get the coastal precip to move further north and west must imply that the disturbance to the west is stronger (sharper). It would help to likewise sharpen the SW to NE jet stream flow along the coastline. The paradox is that the sharpened east coast flow and the stronger disturbance to the west would probably work against the colder surface air moving into the boundary layer in eastern Mass ahead of the precip.

      1. I “think” we are good for snow in Boston.

        Marshfield “may” be a different issue.

        I’m rooting for you.

        1. At least in JP. I could see it snowing in JP and RAINING
          at Logan. I can’t tell you how many times I have
          seen that before. 😀

  9. The time for that link JPDave showed from 12z NAM is 8pm Saturday.
    I even get snow flakes flying with the NAM solution although I never trust the NAM in this time range.

  10. LOL!!!! The last winter storm we had in March NAM nailed that warmer solution in the 24-30 hour period. If we don’t cash in here I am hoping we cash in mid week next week.

  11. I’m fine. A-fib from exactly 5:00AM to 8:59AM. Just part of my heart condition. All is well!

  14. This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan a spread into the GFS ensembles for Hartford, CT
    in terms of snow. Translation to me stay tuned and don’t write this off just yet.
    Weird distribution on the overnight GFS ensembles w/ Sat snow. Of 20 members… 6 with a 6″+ storm, 6 with a light (but plowable event) and 8 with basically just flurries. No narrowing of model spread yet though important to note Euro Ens much less bullish.

  17. As windy as it was a lot of trees still didn’t shed much . Crazy busy the last two days in the city dealing with leafs . There dropping but not going down much it seems . I’m dealing with leafs now basically 7 days a week.

      1. Our neighborhood trees and the hydrangea type bushes lost their leaves last night finally. But it was not a natural lost. It would have been a whole lot longer without that wind

  18. I hope everyone here understood that my comment about the 3 Wise Men was referring to when they arrived baring gifts to the baby Jesus. According to our modern Christian calendar it was on January 6th. I assumed most here knew that. It was hardly meant to be a joke. In fact, many people keep their Christmas decorations up until that date.

      1. Thanks Ace! 🙂

        I am very dissapointed it had to go that way. I thought everyone here was better than that. 🙁

    2. I also apologize, Philip. We always keep our decorations up until Jan 6. My oldest grand starts moving the wise men in our manger a bit closer every day beginning dec 25. It is a tradition he began when he was about 2. He is now 10

    3. For what it is worth, Philip, this is a link to my grandson’s arrangement when he was about four. I was struck by the fact he had plenty of figures of Santa and reindeer, etc. and chose the true center of Christmas for the middle. His now four year old brother just set up my manger and his arrangement is more than interesting also.

      https://i.imgur.com/e4cF4MD.jpg

        1. It is. He is our old soul. But his brother arranged the manger for me this year. He is four now. And it is interesting how kids see things. I just put the pics on FB. This little guy knows the wise men come last but it took me a bit to figure how his line worked. His mom thinks it is how they line up in school. So he put the littlest angel first. And again I apologize.

          https://i.imgur.com/4pf4dnJ.jpg

            1. It is. I enjoy having the kids set it up each year. It helps them to understand and the adults to see a bit into their thoughts

    1. Re Euro snow projection for Saturday night …

      If the Sears tower was located 1 mile NW of the Sagamore Bridge, maybe the top of it would see 1-3 inches. But at the surface ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. As Ryan Hanrahan just tweeted with regards to the 12z EURO run 50 miles either way means flurries or plowable snow for Saturday.

  23. RE: A-fib. Nothing really different going on. I have periods of time where the episodes occur more frequently and then long quiet periods. All is under control. I see my cardiologist regularly and we are doing what we have to. 🙂

    RE: Weather. No real changes to thinking at this point. Yes we must watch the waves as is the case in any situation, but I don’t think any big surprises are in store either.

    1. It definitely is close with the weekend thing but I wouldn’t call next Wednesday close. That low is way out there… It will probably be closer than that. We only have a week to figure it out. 😉

      1. Well, that’s relative. It is “close” in the sense that it is not
        depicting OTS like the GFS. 😀

        I know it’s a week away, but seriously, what are your thoughts
        at this point? Other than what you just indicated, that it will
        come closer than depicted above. Well, at this point, I suppose
        that is pretty good.

      1. It is an outlier and the 18Z is unreliable; however, I would not discount the northwestward shift that the 18Z GFS and seemingly other models are suggesting. We’ve seen this shift before.

  28. Given the NWS’s comments about not getting 12z air data sampling from Alaska anymore (evidently due to budget cuts), is there a particular daily model run that will be less reliable going forward? (i.e. 18z)

  29. This evening Eric’s map seems the most “aggressive”. It shows the best chance of accumulating snows in eastern MA out to 495 south through the I-95 corridor and to the CC Canal. He was careful not to give specific numbers but that it should be enough for work crews to treat the roads. Not sure if he should have said even that much as of yet. Still a bit too early for ANY kind of snowfall map IMO.

    TK, what are your thoughts on these maps w/o numbers? Do they help or confuse the viewer?

    2. Eric also said tonight’s runs trended more to the East. Oh well.

      Not liking how Tues/Wed looks for next week either. Oh well again.

      We’ll reload and try again. 😀 😀 😀

      Of course, Both could still materialize. We shall see.

      Will look at the Euro first thing tomorrow AM.

  30. Philip, I sincerely apologize. I did know what you are referring to. My mother is Christian, father Jewish. I was raised in both religions and take them both very seriously. I was of course joking when I referred to the 3 Wise Men as T, M, and R. I’m sorry if this was offensive.

    1. Apology accepted Joshua. 🙂

      I can understand even more why TK wants to keep politics off this blog. I will certainly abide by his wishes on that.

  32. Philip.. I think those maps, in general, are helpful, provided adequate explanation is given.

    JP Dave.. My thoughts are the same really. We typically see wavering of snow/rain areas on model runs anyway. Since today we were just outside the need for any #’s in a forecast, I was definitely still in “not worry about it” mode. Tomorrow, a reassessment will be made and #’s included for snow for the weekend system(s), if necessary.

  33. Huge grain of salt since its 6z runs but both American models 6z runs show some accumulating snow for SNE Saturday.

        1. btw, one can save a nice image of these maps
          at the College of Dupage site, However, it will not
          work with Chrome. Use IE and it works. Then
          load them into Imgur.com

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