Wednesday Forecast

109 Comments

1:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)
And now that we are beyond that December 10 marker and the pattern has had a chance to readjust, the cold has arrived. This cold pattern will be good for this 5 day period with the coldest days being the first 3, today through Friday, and slow moderation over the weekend. Behind our departed low pressure area of yesterday comes a fast-moving clipper system which now appears it will be far enough north to bring a light snowfall to southern areas in the early hours of Thursday. A second system will make a run at the region Friday night with a shot at snow, again favoring southern areas, departing Saturday at which time high pressure will build in for the balance of the weekend. We still have to keep an eye on the late Friday system as it still has the potential to grab extra moisture and throw it at us here. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 24-31. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-45 MPH at times. Wind chill below 20 at times.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. A period of snow especially near and south of I-90 overnight with a coating to 1 inch possible in these areas and just a little very light snow with no accumulation to the north. Lows 17-23. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with lingering snow possible Cape Cod early then clearing. Highs 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of snow possible at night. Highs 26-33. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny then increasing clouds late. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)
Briefly milder to start the period then a weak system comes through with a minor precipitation event and colder air then returns. There may be a clipper system around December 21 or 22 with a snow threat but not confident of this at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)
The cold is likely to win out along with a couple snow/mix chances but far too early to really time or detail anything.

109 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Because it was hyped for 2 weeks as being a massive cold outbreak when it was simply going to be a shift to cold weather. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK . I’m more concerned right now on keeping an eye on Friday’s system which still could be an accumulation event in some areas . Tonight will be brutally cold with the wind picking up later today .

  4. Was hoping for some clear or partly cloudy skies tonight for the Geminid meteor shower… supposed to be very good this year. Sounds like clouding up now…

  6. Thanks TK. Digging out after a foot of snow here in Plymouth, NH yesterday. Between that and the temperatures, sure feels like winter out there.

    1. Wednesday is a busy MEETING day for me and the most stressful day
      of the week for me. So, I am finally back at my desk, but with a tall
      order to complete before 1PM tomorrow, so I most likely won’t be visiting
      much today.

  11. No one has posted anything regarding what the Euro is showing for the next two weeks, which leads me to believe not much…Mark, Dave?

    1. The 0z Euro has got some generally light snow and mixed precip coming in Monday into early Tues next week with minor accumulation and then a clipper system passing over us next Friday 12/20 and generating a shield of 3-6″ of snow in NNE. That one (as presently modeled 10 days out) looks like it could be interesting if it dove a bit farther south and passed underneath us but its still 10 days out. The northern two thirds of the country are seasonably cold at the end of the run.

      1. Hopefully the reverse happens with that 12/20 system 0z EURO run is showing. The system yesterday last week was showing the low diving to the south and it eventually shifted north putting us on the warm side. Hopefully the reverse happens this time.

  13. Does anyone know what the minimum requirements are for a white Christmas? 1″ on the ground? More than 50% coverage?

      1. Well that is misplaced… that was in response to
        Winter Coat.

        Re: White Christmas.

        I haven’t a clue, but I suspect you hit it with 1 inch
        on the ground.

          1. Hahaha, i would LOVE to add a zero to that. Unfortunately, if no more snow occurs prior to Christmas, that is what will be on ground in most of SE MA

  16. Thank you, TK!

    Regarding Friday night, will SNE be getting snow? TK has mentioned the possibility several times. I have not, however, seen it featured in other forecasts. The reason I ask is I will be driving that evening.

  17. Long way out but a MIXORAMA of precipitation on 12z GFS for Christmas Eve then Christmas Day night into the next day.

  18. If the GFS is even close to reality, looks like a Really ACTIVE period
    from Just before Christmas to a few days after. I look forward with
    interest.

    12Z Euro “really” close for Fri/Sat.

  19. I would not bet the GFS being right. Been all over the place around Christmas time period from snowstorm to lakes cutter to now mixorama.

    1. All I can tell you is this is the level of winds which is used
      to forecast the Polar Vortex (PV) and its consequences.

      10 hPa/mb – Approximately 31,000 meters (101,700 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective

      If I am reading this correctly, this denoates an East to West direction which
      would predict a disruption in the PV such that it could drift South
      and Drain cold air into the NE with upper winds favoring storm
      development (read that as SNOW).

      What I cannot read from this is IF this is the exact set up we would want
      or if it is displaced or not.

      We need someone with more knowledge than I to explain and analyze.
      Calling TK.

    1. NWS sizes up those situations as follows:

      Area Forecast Discussion
      National Weather Service Taunton MA
      117 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

      .SYNOPSIS…
      A gale center will move into the Maritimes today with windy and
      very cold conditions in its wake. A fast moving low pressure
      will track south of New England late tonight and early Thursday
      bringing a period of light snow to the south coast and
      especially the Islands. Another low pressure may bring some
      light snow around Friday night then cold and dry for Saturday.
      Somewhat milder temperatures return on Sunday.

  23. If that pans out we should have a White Christmas. Will see how it plays out as its out there and many things can change.

  24. Not for Nothing, BUT the HRRR is forecasting Snow for ALL of SNE overnight into
    tomorrow AM. Waiting for completion of the latest run.

  25. This is the HRRR 19Z run. It shows snow still in the air at 8 AM tomorrow:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017121319/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18.png

    10:1 accumulations as of 8AM tomorrow (ratio likely to be higher than 10:1, so there would actually be a bit more snow)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017121319/hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

    Here is the Kuchera snow amount which at least makes an attempt to factor in
    the ratio. This is for the same time period and you will note: there is more snow:

    https://imgur.com/a/C4MA9

  26. Quick summary after looking at 12z stuff…

    * Still expecting a very light snow fall south of the pike tomorrow pre-dawn.

    * Have to watch Friday night but it doesn’t want to come together for much at the moment.

    * I’m not sure the models have a handle on early next week….more later.

    * I like the pattern for snow late next week.

    Going to be mobile alot for the evening so we’ll catch up later.

    2. Thanks TK. I will certainly enjoy Christmas snow. But if there is one day of the year I’d rather it not be any more than a decent Dusting it is Christmas. Too many families might not be able to get together and, although family has always topped my list, It has taken a whole new meaning to me.

  28. Today’s sunset seemed not quite as “dark” as recent ones. A good sign. 🙂

    Unfortunately my morning trips to work are only going to get darker from here until at least mid-April. 🙁

  29. I would bet the HRRR for tomorrow morning. A solid 1-3″ south of the Pike, though any 3’s should be confined more to southern RI and southeast MA.

    Then again, just as Judah has a cold bias and TK a low snow bias… I have an admitted HRRR bias for short range 😉

    1. We shall see. I have a feeling you are correct.

      This could be one of those “sneaky” ones we get around here from time
      to time. It will be interesting to see if it pans out.

      btw, I have noticed that you seem to like the HRRR short range.

      1. Flakes will be possible any time from pre-dawn to about 1PM, centered on the mid-late morning hours. Cambridge will be on the northern edge of any snow though. I think you’ll be fine there!

      1. Islands (Long Island and MV, in particular) look to be awfully close to a healthy dose of snow. We’ll see what happens.

    2. I think it’s mostly down this way and more the cape regarding tomorrow is that correct. Just getting home as I had to work OT tonight so I haven’t seen yet .

        1. I think you’ll be okay. Looks like Boston may get some `dandruff’ snow (flakes here and there, the kind that whip around the surfaces of cold pavement), but not much more than that.

        2. Yup just watched Harvey cape storm Boston will not be in on this one and he also said looking like Friday snow is to out to sea . Possibly mix event Sunday night into Monday and did indeed mention it getting colder next week and a battle zone setting up possibly ( key word possibly bringing a couple of snow watches .

  31. tomorrow snow is wasted snow. Its not Boston and north of the mass pike. 😛

    I think the GFS is junk
    If it is correct for the christmas time frame the gulf states and southeast are gonna have an ice rink

    1. btw, total qpf for Boston is 0.06 inch, so the Kucera amounts above represent
      a ratio of a bit more than 20:1. The 10:1 snow for Boston is 0.06. Funny
      about that, isn’t it. 😀

  34. Battlezone is the operative word moving forward. It looks like impulses of cold air will continue to invade our region, but not in the form of a period of consistent cold. Temperature oscillations will continue to dominate, though not dramatic ones. Nevertheless, the warmer air will `want’ to push out the cold, especially as low pressure areas cross the region to our north. For us to get the snow some of us want, we need a clipper system to dive south of us off the mid-Atlantic coast and redevelop as it moves northeastward. This would keep the warmer air well to our south and would draw in the pool of cold air to our north. This could very well happen next week, but the set-up as I see it is more favorable for an icing event or two.

      1. That’s also what I’m hoping for, so long as it doesn’t happen on the 20th and 23rd when I have children arriving from overseas. We’ll see. We can’t control the weather, but we can have fun predicting and observing it. I’m grateful for the work you do posting the models. I never would have known about HRRR (sounds like an angry German shepherd) or RAP (sounds like Eminem) without your input.

        1. I don’t always have as much time as I would like and sometimes, quite frankly, I think I over do it. Oh well, I enjoy immensely.

          Now you just have to get your hands on the WHW app.

          I’ll post more in the coming weeks. 😀

  35. 0Z NAM now brings a touch of snow to Boston, but still keeps accumulations
    well to the South. Going to be close.

      1. That surface map shows the effect of the Dry air. A system in this position should easily throw precip to boston points north.

          2. I’ve always wanted to be on MV or Nantucket during a `private’ snowstorm, cut off from the rest of humanity, summer crowds gone, main street quiet, … Now that would enjoy very much.

        1. Most of it will be I think . Even Plymouth May miss out on the brunt of it . Parts of the cape 2-3 inches

  44. Snowing here currently. Its not a lot of snow with only about half inch but the timing stinks for the morning commute.

  45. Everything going about as expected. Flakes along the Pike, accumulation confined to areas to the south, poorly timed for slick roads, showing it’s not about the amount but the timing.

    New post!

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