Thursday Forecast

167 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)
The “South Coast Special” snow event will wind down soon and the dry/cold will return to the region for the balance of the day. Another system makes a quiet run at the region late Friday but stays in 2 pieces instead of merging. This limits the impact to just a little light snow or flurries Friday night. A similar disjointed system passes through Monday after fair weather weekend.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with lingering snow South Coast through Cape Cod early then clearing. Highs 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of snow possible at night. Highs 26-33. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny then increasing clouds late. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a little light snow/mix possible. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Near the borderline of a warmer air mass to the south and very cold air in Canada starting out with fair weather but turning unsettled later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Again near the borderline of mild to the south and much colder to the north. Uncertain on precipitation events at this time.

167 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK!

    This morning’s event playing out about as expected. Looks like an enhanced band just north of New Bedford where they may see a 3-4″ total.

  5. I am worried about Tom Brady’s Achilles injury. Since the injury. 83.7 Before the injury 110 passer rating

  6. Thanks TK.

    Nice powdery snow here in Coventry, CT this AM. Just under 2″ on the ground and still snowing lightly. 17 degrees.

  9. I’ve been impressed with the cold the last 36 to 48 hrs.

    Certainly something New Englanders can easily handle ….

    With that said, this is a bout of cold more common to January and February, when you have 2 days with high temps not getting out of the 20s.

      1. 🙂 🙂 I do.

        I think the average high, I’m guessing, must be in the low 40s, so against climatology, it gets my attention. But, its true, especially today, with the lighter winds, that its not too tough to take.

        1. 😀 😀 😀

          It wasn’t tough to take yesterday. I was outside walking
          on Bolyston Street near Copley yesterday morning before work. I loved it. It was awesome!!!

          1. I am picturing your walk in Copley and just smiling. I am far more a country mouse than a city mouse, but there is something just magical about the city when it snows….especially at Christmas.

            I almost considered wearing a jacket when I was out but walking from the car to the store just didn’t seem to require it.

  10. I am feeling more and more pessimistic about our White Christmas chances.
    Still time, but all I see is YUCK!

    At my house in JP an ever so light “feather dusting”. Snow started around 5 and ended
    around 8.

    1. The zigging and zagging of the systems around Christmas time on successive model runs should give you a bit of hope …….. in that it means that the models don’t have that transition to a SE Ridge pattern (La Nina) figured out yet, neither in strength, nor timing ……. so, we could as well end up cold and snowy, as opposed to today’s projection of inland tracking clippers.

      1. Oh, I DO understand that. It is just disheartening to see everything in such a state of flux and uncertainty. Unfortunately, I like my routines and schedule and I like to know what is happening down the road and I don’t like surprises (unless of course it is a miracle snow storm).

        I am wired strangely, believe me.

  13. Thanks TK
    When were at the boarder line between cold and mild air as TK mentions in this blog to me that translates to MESSORAMA storms.

  14. Definitely eyeing days 7 and beyond for icing potential in New England. Southeast ridge is about to take over the synoptic pattern, which warms the mid levels, but low levels will still have some decent cold trapped in them. To me, that continues to signal future threats of messy storms with an ice risk somewhere in New England. We should have multiple opportunities at such storms probably even before New Years.

  15. It was not a question of if but when the southeast ridge would show up. Sometimes when you have these messy storm you could get a front end accumulating snow 1-3 2-4 for example before a change to mix and then rain.

  16. I believe TK was leaning towards that ridge not showing up as soon as the models indicate. Hopefully that’s still on the table…

      1. Yeah, I know. Just searching for anything.

        I fear there will be NO WHITE CHRISTMAS in BOSTON!!!
        What little snow that is left will be long gone by Christmas.

        I wouldn’t feel this way IF the Euro at least held out some hope, but the combination of the Euro and GFS spells possible doom.

        Yes, there is time and the atmospheric conditions are very
        volatile with the models not necessarily handling it all that
        well.

        So, we shall see. I hold out hope, but fear the worst.

        2. I’ve been holding out hope for tomorrow night into saturday as well JpDave since TK had given his “funny feeling” thoughts about it. When he targets a certain date or time period my radar goes up. It makes it that much more disappointing when it doesnt pan out

          1. Unless we manufacture a miracle trough soon
            enough, not gonna happen. Northern system
            passes harmlessly well to our North and the Southern system passes harmlessly out to sea
            South and East of us.

            Snow lovers lament.

            Well, at least we had Saturday. It will probably
            be our last real snow event of the whole season.

            😀 😀 😀

      1. It would be a bummer to have a big snow event on the 26th. One did occur in the northeast back in 1947. I much prefer snows leading up to Christmas Day itself. Christmas Eve would be a nice touch in a romantic way. 🙂

        I had an aunt who used to live in New York and she eventually moved in with us and she used to always talk about that 1947 snowstorm.

        1. We did have a big snow event the day after Christmas in 2010 which started that six week stretch of a snowy pattern.

          1. I remember that one well JJ. If I recall, the models were showing it going OTS for days prior, then all of a sudden on xmas eve they flipped and showed a major storm headed our way.

            2. Yes I do remember the storm was out to sea as you mentioned AceMaster. Then it was showing signs of getting closer around Christmas Eve and before you know it blizzard watches were issued for parts of SNE and upgraded to blizzard warnings and widespread double digit snowfall happened for a good chunk of SNE.

  20. Something to watch around Christmas. Tweet from meteorologist Jon Homenuk
    My interest in overrunning winter storm potential for the OV and Northeast continues to rise in the period around Christmas. Tropical forcing propogation and Wave 1 stratosphere disruption could support more confluent flow in SE Canada than models currently suggest, as well:
    Link to tweet with graphics.
    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/941353334522380289

        1. 70s at Christmas time is just dreadful! What a way
          to put a damper on the festivities. At least get past
          Christmas before the thermostat is set to high.

  22. Yesterday 12z EURO run showed accumulating snow prior to Christmas Eve and today a different outcome. There is nothing at all etched in stone.

  23. Vicki,

    Thank you for that link. Now I know. Makes sense now. Not sure I ever heard of that before and if I did, it has been lost deep in the recesses of my memory banks.

  24. I cannot decide if you guys are making me laugh so much my sides hurt or making me sad because you are worrying about snow so much you may be missing the anticipation of this special holiday.

    Although the Merry freakin Christmas had me nearly choking on the sip of water I’d just taken.

  26. Thanks Jimmy for the reminder of the 26th in 2010. I forgot about that. I have the 1947 storm stuck in my brain since my aunt always talked about it so much growing up. 🙂

  27. Your welcome Philip.
    As I said earlier that is what kicked off the 6 week snowy pattern. At BDL that January 54.3 inches of snow fell which is the snowiest month on record including in that month the biggest snowstorm on record with 24 inches of snow on the 11th-12th.

  30. 12/26/2010 was the day I closed on our house–and we sold our previous house on 1/8/11 which meant for those 2 weeks we owned two houses, with two driveways to shovel, and a snowblower at one house but not the other. It was the only two week period in my life that I didn’t want it to snow, and we got dumped on 12/26 and then at least 1-2 more times afterwards.

  32. Tis the season for miracles and maybe the 0z runs will shift this a little further north and gives us a light snowfall tomorrow night. I am not holding my breath though.

    1. I looked at the reflectivity from the 12Z run and the 6Z run. guess what?
      They are both about just as close as this 18Z run.

    2. Well, then if you believe in miracles, perhaps it gets close enough to develop
      a Norlun. 😀 😀 😀 Yeah sure, FAT CHANCE!

  33. Tweet from Bernie:

    Mischief Friday evening in southern New England? Lets keep an eye out on this. Overall trof negative with southern piece racing out ahead. 50-70 knots of wind at 500 mb…period of snow..enuf to cause problems.

    1. Now you’re talking!

      Of course it is our office Christmas Party tomorrow evening
      from 5-10PM.

      If anything were to happen, I would think it would commence somewhere
      in the 8PM to Midnight time frame, hopefully towards the end of that
      time frame. Of course if it started mid-party I wouldn’t mind it one bit
      at all. It would be a nice holiday touch, as long as it doesn’t scare people
      away from attending.

        1. 😀

          Not likely, more of an obligation. At least Mrs. OS
          is coming with me as the office was nice enough to invite spouses.

  36. I wouldn’t worry too much about details for the Christmas period yet. There’s a storm threat around 12/22-12/24. Whether it’s the amped up cutter that the Euro shows remains to be seen. I could easily see a more flat-flow scenario with a weaker wave of low pressure passing near or south of us. That would be a lighter precip scenario favoring mixed precip potential rather than all rain. Either way though, it does not look to me that any large snow threats are on the table before Christmas. In terms of a “white Christmas”, I don’t see it at this stage for most of SNE. But it’s 10 days away; much remains to be ironed out.

  37. I really want to see the 0Z runs and then compare with tomorow’s 12Z runs.
    I hope it gets interesting. We shall see.

  38. I am going to be watching the 0z runs of the American models. I think were looking at a whitening of the ground and nothing more than that although we have seen surprises in the past.

    1. ditto. We shall see. IF there is northward movement, then we “may” be in business. IF not, more like today.

  39. Any accumulating snow tomorrow for this area tomorrow will be from southern Plymouth county & down through the cape , Taunton and parts of Rhode Island.

              1. Yes I did and it almost was. I did get the least bitty bit of accumulation. 😀

                And tomorrow night into Saturday could be more than that.

                1. Ok well we can agree to disagree cool . I’m hoping it does not come this far again because I have 3 jobs going this weekend .

                2. We had accumulation here as well. And I’m not south shore

                  Who is Burnet? For what it is worth, I sure didn’t note sarcasm. Everyone usually cites where info came from. I was curious too

        2. Not at all, I just know you usually get your forecasts from Harvey. I have not had a chance to watch any news.

          1. Ok thanks . Harvey is just the met I watch . I get my weather from other sources as well . Thanks sue.

            1. Harvey and AJ did a couple of Facebook Live events last Friday and Saturday and they work so well together. It was rather enjoyable to watch.

              1. AJ is good dude. I work with someone who knows him and has nothing but the best things to say about him.

                I believe TK knows him as well. 😀

              2. Indeed I caught a glimpse of that when we had a quick coffee break . They were taking questions but don’t think mine was answered .

  41. Mark Rosenthal is now the staff meteorologist on WPLM- Plymouth (Easy 99.1). He’s been on since around Thanksgiving. WATD in Marshfield offers Rob Gilman with the weather. I like his style and his forecasts. I sometimes hear Bill Gile in for Rob. I believe Bill was on Channel 10- WJAR in Providence. I think he’s now on Channel 6 also in Providence.

    3. Rob Gilman once was on WJDA in Quincy, wasn’t he? I remember listening to him years ago.

      Does anyone remember Roland Boucher from WKOS in Framingham
      and also Channel 7 in Boston?

    4. How old is Gilman as I’m from Marshfield and he was there when I was a kid and I’m now 46. He has an incredible mellow voice

  43. Saw Rosenthal at the SNE Wx Conference. He follows WHW. Glad he’s on that station. I like his style.

    Bill Gile and I were at U Lowell at the same time.

    AJ and I were coworkers for several years.

    Don’t be surprised if snow sneaks into Boston Friday night.

      2. Vicky, I don’t know if you know this but you probably do he has a website weatherblast where he gives daily forecasts. I love him and loved his past days on wcvb .

        2. Sorry, Aiden, I have nothing. He looks like McGee on NCIS

          I have no problem with ch 5. I just like mets on other stations better so have never watched it. Harvey I know because he is a friend of a friend so I was at several parties with him years ago.

      3. Mack???? Seriously, my iPad autocorrect the spelling of Mac….as if I don’t type it enough to be autocorrecting all other spellings for the entire universe

  44. Well, if nothing else, this is absolute proof that I have one weather source and have for years. And I never have to question the forecast. There is no better.

  45. Friday night’s event will not be a carbon copy of this morning’s event.

    This morning’s event was from a low center that tracked from southern Michigan to south of Long Island via PA & NJ, moving east southeast.

    Friday night’s event will be a low center that moves east northeastward across the Middle Atlantic States to the waters south of New England, and its snow shield should expand a little further north than the first system did, which was not exclusive to Cape Cod but delivered accumulating snow to the entirety of far southern New England.

        1. It’s just a strong feeling on this one . Actually I think the dead certain comment is reserved for you like that call you made last night on Boston’s snow for today .

    2. Thanks TK. You made it easy even for me to visualize the path and your comment makes absolute sense

      Now if you could help me find a snowless deck chair so I can sit out and watch the geminids, I’d be in your debt

      And this Gemini wants to know why are we have Gemini in December.

      1. Good meteor shower this year. Peaked last night. Nearly as good tonight without clouds in the way!

          1. I sit on the deck in a long sleeved tee. I will have to wear shoes tonight since there is snow on the deck. It really doesnt feel that cold.

  46. Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet. This was before 0z NAM came out.
    I’ve got a sneaky feeling tomorrow evening’s “close call” may surprise. Don’t be surprised if this becomes a bigger deal.

  48. No meteors but deck is on north side. I did see a ton of stars and caseopia. I’ll try south side of house in a bit.

    It is a spectacular night

  49. Pete on NBC Boston said that the late next week system will feature rain/mix. It seems that the cold will be retreating by then. This front loaded winter started off with a nice 6 inch bang last Saturday but may be already fizzling. 🙁

    More stations should feature 10-day forecasts. 😉

    1. Yes they should, because we can always accurately forecast precipitation type 8 days in advance… 😛

      1. Well, I guess Some can. 😀 😀 😀 OR THINK they can. 😀 😀 😀

        I think they all should be smart about it, like you are.

        btw, ERIC was Excellent with his longer range outlook. Much
        more like your approach.

  50. NAM has 0.8 inch Kuchera for Boston and GFS had 1.3 inch.

    Now we see what the Euro says and then the 6Z and 12Z runs.

    I am feeling it creeps just a wee bit closer. We shall see.
    Now that I said it, it will probably wobble OTS more. 😀

    Will, of course, also be watching the HRRR and RAP tomorrow as well.

  51. Good morning, everyone.
    Thank you, TK, for the update that is coming!

    8.4 degrees at 0600 here in the boglands of Taunton.
    (Boglands? Isn’t that a Bruce Springsteen song?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ79EfXQ9LE

    Great Friday wake-up song.

    Sunset is 69 seconds later today than it was last Thursday.
    I would suggest a sunscreen with a 15 SPF.

    WxWeather and Matt (and other students in the WHW listening area), best of luck with finals! Bring it home!

    Big game for the Pats in Pittsburgh!

    Terribly silly this morning! God help my first period class!

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

  52. Just arrived at work. The cold has a real sting to it. Feels much, much colder than the last two days with the wind than now with winds very light or dead calm. I assumed without the wind that it would at least “feel” warmer.

  53. 6Z rns have at most about 1/2 inch for boston. Backed off a bit from 0z runs.
    Cuurent HRRR runs has close to 1 inch Kuchera for Boston. RAP has 0.04 inc qpf which would be about .6 or .7 inch snow.

    0z euro has 0.4 inch snow for boston.

    So, is it about 1/2 inch for Boston? OR will things trend more North? OR South.

    Waiting on 12 z runs and additional HRRR runs.

  56. Here is a 12 hour satellite water vapor loop. Notice in the last frame or 2 the northern piece of energy digging and suddenly sharpening up.

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20171215&endTime=-1&duration=12

    Will this be enough to pull the southern surface system closer to the coast?

    I’ll be watching this loop during the day.

    Odds favor it remaining too far off for meaningful snow, but it would not take
    much to throw a shield of 1-3 or 2-4 inches up this way.

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