Friday Forecast

127 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)
Two pieces of energy try to phase up as low pressure develops off the Mid Atlantic Coast later today and passes southeast of New England tonight. This phasing takes place too late for a big storm but soon enough for a brief shot of snow this evening. The next system approaches late Sunday into Monday but looks fairly weak with a bit of light snow/mix Sunday night into Monday. A brief warm up follows this Tuesday but a cold front will already be charging toward the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 24-31. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow accumulating 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches along and southeast of a line from northeastern CT to Boston MA, and less than 1/2 inch elsewhere. Lows 17-24. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Clearing. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow at night. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix mainly early. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of late day rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)
A few snow showers possible December 20 otherwise fair and cold December 20-21. Unsettled weather possible in the December 22-24 period but the track of low pressure is highly uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)
The region will likely be near the border between warmer weather in the southeastern US and very cold weather in Canada with a tendency for the cold to win out here. A few mix/snow events are possible with fast-moving weather systems.

127 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    I’m enjoying these brief blasts of snow. They are enough to keep snow already on ground white but not enough to stop folks from their holiday preparations and parties.

  3. Thanks TK. Frigid morning here in Plymouth, NH. Radiational cooling and a deep snow pack taking sheltered areas below zero. -7 at the AWOS site in Plymouth.

  7. 12z NAM confines any snow accumulation to the South Coast Cape and Islands.
    We shall see what the GFS says and subsequent HRRRs and RAPs.

  8. There is only once in my lifetime I can remember measurable snow on 12/25 in Boston – it would have had to have been 1973 -74? I’m sure someone here knows the answer….

    1. As a kid, maybe in the late 90’s or early 2000’s I remember driving form Melrose to Acton in a snowstorm on Christmas night, can’t remember the exact details, but it was certainly measurable. Whether or not it snowed at Logan that day, I’m not sure because it did start as rain in Melrose

    2. I can remember one from the 50s or 60s. I could not tell you the exact date.
      Other than that, nothing comes to mind. I certainly remember some
      near Christmas, but not on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

      There must have been one or two.

    3. There was one in the early 2000s….not sure about Boston, but I’d say 6-8 inches in Framingham. My oldest will know the year.

  11. Good morning. Frigid at the bus stop here this morning as well…we got down to 5F. The solid snow cover and mostly clear skies certainly helped though it has become mostly cloudy now. We’ll see if we can tack on another inch or two tonight after yesterday AM’s surprise.

  12. M.L., I believe it was Christmas Day 1975. We had a run-of-the-mill snowstorm that day, and as I recall that was one of the few snowstorms that winter.

  13. Go For Snow – Christmas Day 2002 we had a heck of a snowstorm in Upstate NY. I was home for the holidays at my parents house in Amsterdam NY and we picked up 25″ of snow with most of it falling during a 12 hour period. One of the most memorable snowstorms I have experienced. That may be the one you were thinking of. It was a large nor’easter and I recall when I got back to CT that there wasn’t nearly as much on the ground here, I believe it was more of a snow to sleet to frz rain situation here but it definitely snowed.

    1. That’s entirely possible, I would have been 17 which matches how I old I think I was and the rain to sleet to snow scenario that played out

  14. 6z GFS is interesting…puts us right on the boundary between the cold air to the north and warmer air over the southeast with an extended period of mixed precipitation between the 24th and 26th but no real defined storm. It starts as snow/mix, trends to rain then back to snow on xmas day. Eventually the cold air wins out and the rain snow line is down at the Gulf Coast. End of the run looks nice with deep cold over the eastern 2/3 of the country, no Southeast ridge, and two snow events as we head towards New Years.

    Of course we are talking a GFS 240 to 384 hour forecast here but I wouldn’t be quick to assume pattern change quite yet. I actually think things could be quite interesting in the Xmas – New Years timeframe winter weather wise assuming that boundary sets up nearby or to our south.

    1. Oh, I haven’t given up. Just wish there were clear signals.
      Not much we can do about it but watch and enjoy whatever comes our way.

      Just to add a touch to our Holiday party this evening, I would really like
      to see an inch or 2 of snow. I am afraid I may have to settle for a few flakes
      to a dusting or 1/2 inch at best.

      The satellite wtaer vaopr loop gives me a shred of hope that the upper flow will
      sharpen just enough to get 1-3 inches up here. Not expecting it, but wishing
      for it. Whatever the models depict, doesn’t matter. This loop shows it as it is.

      http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20171215&endTime=-1&duration=12

  16. None of these events excite me .I want at least 5 inches to get me excited. These tiny things bore me especially when they happen south of the pike and its a waste of snow.

  17. The Christmas I mentioned where we had accumulating snow was possibly 2001 or 2002…. I thought my older daughter would recall since we went to her now in-laws home. My younger one is the one who narrowed the dates and we are leaning toward 2002.

    1. You ought to be fine Joshua you will probably just want to take it a bit slow to be on the safe side. But since it’s a low snowfall amount road crews should be able to keep up with it.

  20. NAM has maintained incredible consistency with the positioning of the snow later today and tonight keeping it just outside the Boston area. I’d be more optimistic if it was wavering run to run but I think the fat lady has spoken. We’re onto Pittsburgh…

      1. That is funny. Ace….

        How about this:

        GFS has to get better in all three phases…. northern stream, southern stream……Gulf Stream…

  21. Smaller snow events in greater frequency are more exciting to me than a couple larger ones…especially in December.

    3. The problem with smaller snow events, especially this early in the season, the snow never seems to stick around.

  23. I know I will be with JP Dave & Hadi in saying that I much prefer a large scale events and would even go a step further in saying that I would much prefer frequent large scale events. If it’s going to snow, let’s set some records!

  25. I see the NWS has hoisted WWA for extreme areas of southern New England.

    If you check out the expanding precip area in northern NJ, watch its movement and then extrapolate that movement east northeastward, it seems to overlap fairly well the advisory area.

  26. A tendency for small snow events over big ones is something TK and I (and others) made clear would be the likely theme of this winter overall. That is already playing out, although I had expected that if we were to see any “big” events, December and January would be the more likely months for that this winter. And we have already had the right pattern at times, just not a lot of capitalizing on it. The little events (like the current one) are often much trickier to forecast for even if they’re less impactful. Plenty of winter to go; we know no matter what year it is, it can always snow big in New England December-April…

        1. I’ve been seeing it for several weeks. So much so, I don’t use those sites anymore. I use the above. 😀

      1. Yes, I meant to mention that…if that run continued another 12 hours it would likely be showing a foot of snow Xmas Eve/Xmas Day. Wouldn’t that be something?

          1. 🙂

            The smile is because I actually used just one word for a change….which of course I just undid…and not because I said no. That I meant !!!

        2. Funny, the 18Z GFS suppresses it all to the South.
          We go from a 60 degree torch, to snow, to nothing at all but cold.

  31. Here is the current composite radar, which combines echoes for several radar elevations.
    It therefore gives a good picture of what is happening at all levels of the atmosphere.
    If one compares the composite with the base, then one know what is aloft and what
    is potentially reaching the surface.

    Boston Composite:

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=BOX&loop=yes

    Boston Base Reflectivity:

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=BOX&loop=yes

  33. Couldn’t help but chuckle at this tweet from Bernie:

    I have had 2 people in the last 24 hours telling me that I am hyping this storm. 1 in Boston for just mentioning the possibility of snow for Friday evening & another in PHL for have a solid 1-3 I suspect that I will not hear from these individuals today.

    2. Perhaps I wasn’t lookin at big picture. Short range guideance
      suggest snow starting around 9 pm. More back side or a little toughiness ???

      1. It’s also a very quick mover and should be done around 11 or just after. Look for Boston to see flakes to minor ( minor is the key word ) amount of snow trace if that . Temps mid 40s next week .

  39. Snowing lightly in Coventry, CT. Its a very fine snow. It’s been snowing about 2 hours now and we have a coating. Enough to make paved surfaces white. I’d put the intensity at about 1/16″ per hour.

        2. They are. It’ll be closer to 1 there though. 2 and 3 will be confined to very small areas (if anyone gets to 3 at all – my top # was 2.5).

      1. Town truck just came through to treat roads. I have said before how impressed I am that Sutton is so proactive.

  45. Snow just tapered off here. Final total 0.75″

    It was nice though while it lasted. Pretty scene outside. Cant complain with three snow events in the last 6 days. It has looked and felt like winter all week. I hope we can hold on to this until xmas if it doesn’t snow again before then.

  47. We saw our steadiest snow about 9:30 to 10:15, looks like it tapered to flurries now. Very thick dusting, could even be a 1/2 to 1 inch.

    1. A bit less here tom but enough to make it white again…on top of last weeks white. Son in law did shovel driveway so perhaps more than I thought. We didn’t have to shovel Thursday

  48. Even though light amounts, in 16 years down here, I can’t recall another December with 3 different snow events.

  49. Good morning. 6z GFS still active for the holidays. This mornings solution has a snow to mix to rain event Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, then a ribbon of snow on the 26th, and another snow event New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. Who knows how it will ultimately play out, but it does at least look like we are going to have something to deal with during that time period as we are sandwiched along a boundary between cold air to the north and milder air over the southeast.

  50. 0z Euro is similar to GFS but keeps the boundary largely off shore around Christmas. Precip is confined mostly to the south coast and islands

    1. Was just looking at that. It’s up in the air, but with that battle zone something will be happening, it’s just a question of where?

      Wonder where the battle zone will be with the 12Z runs?

  52. CMC and NAM have a little snow overnight Sunday into Monday AM, while
    the GFS and Euro have zilch. What’s up with that?

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