Saturday Forecast

77 Comments

11:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)
No big changes in the overall outlook today. Pretty clear-cut for this 5-day period with a trough moving through today with a gusty breeze and a slight risk of a passing snow flurry, then high pressure moving in tonight into Sunday, followed quickly by light warm frontal precipitation (snow to mix) scattered to general across the region Sunday night into Monday. A brief warm-up follows this as we get into the warm sector for late Monday into Tuesday then a cold front comes along with perhaps a rain shower before cold air returns Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow shower. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow at night. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix mainly morning to midday. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of late day rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)
Fair and cold for the Winter Solstice on December 21, then being between a warmer ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast and very cold air in Canada sets up episodes of unsettled weather, precipitation type indeterminate at this time, during the December 22-25 period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)
The region will likely be near the border between warmer weather in the southeastern US and very cold weather in Canada with a tendency for the cold to win out during this period. A few mix/snow events are possible with fast-moving weather systems.

77 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. Yes. It is that battle pattern that lines up the region for adding up snow, albeit a little at a time for much of the region.

  4. So much for a front loaded winter. These frequent small events are much worse then the big ones. Especially the hype that came with the 1” of snow we revived earlier in the week. At least we hr ski areas are making the most of the cold.

    1. I didn’t see any hype surrounding the small event. I saw pretty much every forecast verified, and it also showed that a mere inch or snow at the wrong time can result in a nightmare commute. Not sure who you saw that hyped it though. I’m sure someone did.

      The first half of winter (climate winter) ends on February 2. It’s too early to declare that. I still feel that Boston may very well end up with the majority of their seasonal snowfall during the current pattern (which will last into early January), this includes the stronger ridge in the SE which will continue to get knocked down periodically.

  6. Boston is currently running about 2 inches ahead of normal (to date) for snow in December. I believe they will end up above normal for the month and above normal for the first third of winter, based on what I see in the medium to long range. We’re going to be near the border for 2 weeks. Accumulating snow is possible at virtually any time during this period. As a long-time forecaster, you NEVER turn your back on a pattern like this and declare it “no snow chances”. That is pure stupidity in this business.

    I’m not sure about other sources, but I have been talking about the snow coming in smaller events around the region as opposed to 1 or 2 big ones. So far, all is going as expected.

    1. Thanks TK for that info! This morning Dave Epstein did not seem very hopeful for a White Christmas. He kept emphasizing that, if anything, we would continue losing any snow on the ground that is left.

        1. Well, he is certainly no Barry but when he is on weekend duty I have a lot more confidence in him than “you know who”. 😉

              1. Then we are in Total agreement.

                My wife thought that I had an issue
                with female Mets and I said oh no! not at all. I told her that I couldn’t stand PG’s presentation and/or knowledge. It’s BRUTAL.

                Then I said that I liked and respected the following 3 female Mets or former mets:

                Mish Michaels
                JC Monahan
                Daniel Niles

                For good measure I also told here that I couldn’t stand the presentation of Mike Wankum.

                I just tell it as I see it.

                I expect nothing but Top Notch knowledge combined with professional presentation by on Air Mets.

                1. These are on my list an d not necessarily in this order, but the top 3 are:

                  Eric Fisher
                  Barry Burbank
                  Harvey Leonard
                  Matt Noyes
                  Pete Bouchard
                  AJ Burnett
                  Jacob Wycoff

                  And when he was on air, I really liked Mark Rosenthall.

  8. As of this posting, it is not quite as “darkish” as like last week. 🙂

    I just wish the mornings were the same. Gotta wait until mid-January for any semblance of any earlier light on my way to work. Still more darkness to come yet. 🙁

    My mini-rant. 😉

  10. Pamela Gardner is hands down the best tv meteorologists in New England. Sarah Wrobleski at close second. Everyone else….. meh.

      1. Let’s not kid ourselves. Tv Mets don’t get paid to be accurate forecasters. I check in for the presentation and get my weather elsewhere.

              1. She was a BZ met for a couple years then went back to Cleveland for her old weather gig. She was always so bright and cheery on air. Usually did weekday mornings.

                1. never saw here on air. I looked her up. She certainly looks pleasant but I have no idea of her meteorological skills.

  11. Fair assessment from NWS

    Friday and Saturday…

    Low confidence forecast as always given time range but even more
    complicated by the pattern. Model guidance has a classic La Nina
    pattern with upper level ridging over the southeast U.S., resulting
    in above normal temps in that region. Meanwhile, arctic air will be
    sitting across eastern Canada. This will put our region in the
    battle ground with a wide range in possible temperature outcomes and
    ptypes. Based on the current guidance an initial wave of low
    pressure appears like it will track west of the region Fri into Sat.
    Assuming that happens, ptype would either be mainly rain or snow/ice
    transitioning to mainly rain. Of course a lot can change between
    now and that time, and given the large temperature gradient that
    will be setting up across the eastern U.S. would not put to much
    into a deterministic forecast this far out.

    1. I am starting to get concerned about not only a White Christmas but our front loaded winter in general.

      These two infamous winters were “front loaded” as well: 😉

      1936-37 = 9.0″
      2011-12 = 9.3″

      2017-18 = 6.1″ (to date)

      1. I think it’s a little to early regarding white Christmas & etc. maybe some solid chance next F-S and the days following Xmas . We will have some seasonable days next week & than turn colder .

              1. Sue it’s to get colder towards the weekend after seasonable temps next week .We shall shall see how it all plays out . To say it’s not going to snow next weekend is a bit premature at this point a week out . Good evening.

                2. Maybe. But isn’t it early to say it will get colder also.

                  are you using models or forecasts from meteorologists ?

                3. As is saying it is going to snow. Just relaying what the channel 5 met posted on Twitter regarding warmer temps next weekends. Simmer down my friend,

    1. Don Kent did not go to college. I believe he learned about forecasting when he served in the Coast Guard during WWII (if I am not mistaken).

      Not totally sure but I don’t believe Bob Copeland went to college either.

      1. u are wrong about copeland. I fo belueve
        he held a bs in ekectrical engineering and ms in meteorology from mit.

        Don Kent told he gained his skills in the air force.

    1. been around for some time, but limited to very few schools. now there are many schools offering it.

      when I was looking at colleges, the only one in mass was mit and only as a graduate program.

  14. The only overnight snow in my neighborhood was a bunch of teeny, tiny snow grains on parked cars. No snow on any grass that I could tell. I left my house for work a few minutes to 6:00. I would be curious if any snow flakes even fell north of Boston.

    i.e., Sommerville, Everett, Lynn, Malden, Medford, etc.

  16. Get the low pressure system GFS shows on Christmas Day to move further east instead of hugging the coast then a better shot of most of SNE to get an accumulating snow.

  17. Y’all gotta realize something…

    By front-loaded winter I did NOT MEAN ALL BEFORE CHRISTMAS. My goodness. 😛

      2. Not necessarily on this blog but around the net I continue to see people saying how sucky this winter has been…

        1) It’s autumn.
        2) December snow is near to above normal to-date.

  19. I really wish some of these TV and other media met’s would stop letting the models make the forecast…

    1. Agree. Are not the models merely guidance? Which means take the model information digest it and along with one’s experience apply common sense
      meteorology and come up with a forecast. Now this may take some work, but hey that’s how the job is done.

      Ok, so I rant. Sorry.

      1. Exactly what I mean.

        I saw a TV forecast today talking about a rain event for Dec 23. No, that’s what the model they looked at showed.

  20. Philip,

    Re: Don Kent

    I am so sorry. Perhaps after 50+ years I am remembering incorrectly.
    I met Don Kent after a presentation he made at my High School in the 60s.
    We had a long talk and I swear he told me he acquired his skills in the Air Force.
    However, everything I see now says Coast Guard.

    http://www.pressherald.com/2010/03/03/don-kent-iconic-weatherman-in-the-boston-area-dies-at-92_2010-03-02/

    I was at a Christmas party and just responded. Sorry to mislead
    and sorry if I came across inappropriately.

  21. Hopefully, there is some wiggle room with the models in the upcoming weather because as it looks right now our chances for a White Christmas are fading fast.

    Euro, GFS and CMC all say Sorry, no. Just checked the FIM and it says no as well.

    Will be watching the 12Z runs for any changes. Just a slight change in timing of
    a front could change a rain forecast to snow, so we wait and see.

    1. Do you see anything for post-Christmas through New Years?

      Very frustrating to see our front loaded winter go downhill before our eyes…and I am not talking “skiing”.

      1. So far, not much. Euro and Fim showing an inch or 2.

        Things could still change, but we need some fronts to move.
        so far, the mean trough remains too far West.

  22. Just for the record, Dave Epstein has rain with a high of 52 for next weekend. Let’s see, that couldn’t possibly be Christmas Eve by chance? 😉

      1. TK, what do you see that needs to happen to whiten things up for Christmas. I mean something that the models are not yet depicting or picking up.

        We need things to change and we are slowly running out of time.
        Christmas eve is one week away.

        1. Look at the magnitude of the ridge the GFS was showing on yesterday’s runs and compare that to today’s 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF. The latter 2 mentioned are the more likely scenario. This puts the region into the zone of uncertainty where the usual model error leaves us open to the chance of snow 3 times as I see it: Monday, Friday, and Sunday/Monday. Note the wording though (and I know you will while others will take it as gospel): chance. In other words, as a forecaster, it’s clear to me we are not out of opportunities to freshen up the snow cover or reintroduce it to places that lost it, between now and Christmas Day.

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