Tuesday Forecast

97 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Watch for patchy icy areas early today!!
The milder air is in but won’t be here long as a cold front approaches today and passes tonight, returning windy and cold weather to the region for Wednesday, then tranquil but cold weather for Thursday, the first day of astronomical winter (solstice 11:38AM). Warm front approaches Friday and brings a risk of precipitation to the region before a push of warm air arrives at night into early Saturday, being cut off by a cold front by the end of the day Saturday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day rain shower. Highs 42-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-36. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 37-44 early then falling through the 30s. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix, ending as mix/rain late. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s daytime but warming at night.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely morning. Slight risk of a snow shower at night. Temperature rise to the 50s morning then fall afternoon and night.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Colder weather during this period. Watching a wave of low pressure for possible snow/ice/rain Sunday night (Christmas Eve) and Monday (Christmas Day). Few snow showers possible later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Expect fast-moving systems, temperatures averaging near to below normal with a couple snow/mix/rain threats.

97 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. For Tom,

    re: Euro
    We were looking at different things.
    You were looking at the Operational run while I was looking at
    the ensemble mean. Big difference. 😀

  4. According to the am NWS Discussion, there will be no cold high to our north for the 24-25 timeframe. Going to be difficult at best for snow around here anyway.

    1. Owning coastline is stupid. Other countries do not allow it, for this reason.
      Most states that allow ownership of coasts is only to the high tide line.
      I feel like anyone who lives right on the coast like that knows what they are getting themselves into.
      The coast is a dynamic system that is ever changing. The over all shift is further west. This is do to geological reasons, as well as increasing wave action and rising sea levels. Some of these areas should never of been built on. Goverment should give these people the money their house is worth and tell them to get out.

      1. You can say that about many areas….tornado alley, California as a whole with Texas not far behind. I’ll post to you on FB though. I just thought it was interesting how different areas are trying to cope with sea rise and how people are responding

  7. Anyone else notice the models trending towards some overrunning snow for the Friday storm? I also noticed that TK now has mention of this in his details

    1. Yes, I have noticed that and as you aptly pointed out, TK has included it
      in his discussion.

      This would be some “possible” front end snow/ice before going over to rain.

  9. Thanks TK.
    Sounds like Meteorologist Steve DiMartino and TK are on the same page with regards to Christmas from this tweet.
    I have been warning that the Christmas day forecast was tricker than your phone app may suggest. Guidance has pushed the surface low much further east the past 24 hours & the forecast is trending colder. A white Christmas threat is still on the table. Updates on the way!

    1. Yes Siree!

      We shall see. Even the Euro has edged Eastward some. Not enough with the
      operational run, but like TK was saying, Look at the ensembles as they
      tell a different story.

      1. Our only hope for a White Christmas (at least in the Boston
        area) is that Christmas Even/Christmas Day event.

        It could end up being a rain to start event, eventually changing
        over to Snow (perhaps with a period of mix/sleet in between).
        When and where that changeover occurs will determine who
        gets a white Christmas and who does not.

        That, of course, Assumes there is a changeover. If it remains
        all rain, well then kiss it good-bye.

  10. Interesting. Look I know the FIM model is not highly valued, but I find it to
    be reasonable. Certainly superior to the Navgem and JMA models.

    Anyhow, it shows 1-2 inches in Boston Friday and a nearly or even a complete snow event Christmas Eve Into Christmas Day With 4-6 inchs (10:1).

    https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2017121900/t3/3hap_sfc_f156.png

    https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2017121900/t3/totsn_24h_f168.png

    Not saying this is how it WIll play out, but this is clearly a possibility.

    1. Now, that would be perfect. Not enough to be crippling and ruin Christmas
      for people, but enough to make it most picturesque.

        1. Exactly JRW. For the folks like you & I who work long hard hours to keep people safe of all days not that day . Folks who don’t remove snow don’t understand even small storms keep us out for a long duration as it’s all about safety. Keep it away .

          1. I much prefer not having snow in cnristmas day for reasons I have Stated before. I think a lot of people understand being away from loved ones on Christmas. Most first responders are away from family on half of the holidays because it is typically every other one. My son is. My dad was. We always worked around it with a plan B. It is servicemen and women that I think about. I actually get teary every single time I hear I’ll be home for Christmas.

            I’m thankful for each and every person who has to work for whatever reason on special days. I also understand those who love a white Christmas. Wishing for it won’t make any difference so why not.

  11. I notice that TK changed his Xmas forecast from yesterday (chance of rain/mix/snow) to today (chance of snow/mix/rain). I’m assuming the order in which these are listed matters?

    1. I would absolutely concur. TK chooses his words very carefully and unless he makes a typo, there is a reason why he chooses those words. 😀

      Just my opinion on the matter.

  12. Thanks TK!

    Watching pretty much all the same potential events as everyone else. Over-running precip threat Friday. Likely ends up as a light icy mix across SNE, better chance of snow to the north. Need to watch that for travel impacts especially if it’s cold enough for any ice. Saturday still looks like a solid rain event in SNE, ice/rain to the north. Another precip event late Sunday into Monday as TK has forecast above. For that one, continuing to favor mostly rain in SNE, with mix to the north. But still time for that to change. Then into the cold and dry.

      1. Here is the College Of DuPage 12Z GFS Kuchera Snow for
        Friday:

        https://imgur.com/a/9ABo7

        Even though there is a 0.6 near boston, placing my mouse
        over the city yields 1.5. So, I dunno

        Looks like a general 1-3 inches across the area with a little more
        well N&W with still time for changes

    1. Roughly that same amount of snow occurred on Christmas Day 1974. My grandmother gave me my first “blue” noaa Wx radio. 🙂

      Not sure if the exact same setup occurred of course.

    1. Thanks Jimmy! Too bad the Friday snow will probably be washed away. At least it will be refreshed for Christmas as it is looking now. 🙂

      1. The rain coming Saturday stinks after what could be a light accumulation on Friday. Hopefully the timing if there is going to be snow on Christmas shifts to overnight and we all wake up to snow on the ground Christmas morning and it doesn’t impact people getting to where they need to get to.

    1. Nope! My first one was part of a 7-band radio that was black (which I still have), and then my actual weather radio was wood panel colored with black speaker covering and a telescoping antenna. 😀

  20. We’re not done seeing model adjustments – not even close. Next run will probably keep everything further east. After that we should see a readjustment back to the west. This is regarding the Christmas threat.

    The Friday one, close call, working on it.

  22. Not sure I understand the fetish for a white Christmas. I blame Bing.
    I’m ready for what’s still on the ground to melt.
    100 days till opening day, by the way. 🙂
    I’m excited for the first day of winter on Thursday. That means only 90 days till the first day of spring.

    1. Because some people like it. Society in general likes nostalgia or stereotype around these events. You may not fit into that category, and that’s fine.

      I’m not sure I’d call it a fetish. It’s more like a fun little game to see if it happens or not.

      My concern is teaching people how to stop reading the models as gospel and I’m having great difficulty getting that to stick, nevermind snow. 😛

      1. And if I may add….although, as stated, I do prefer no snow on Christmas Day….snow creates a magical world and Christmas is all about wonder and magic

      2. All a model is is a projection of probabilities. I know so little about meteorology, but I think I figured that one out. 🙂

  23. I continue to believe we have to wait until after Christmas for much snow in SNE. Friday will be a non-event in terms of meaningful accumulation, but a potential travel headache. After the rain Saturday, I’m still not seeing the signs that point to snow for Christmas day. Models are all over the place on that; for now, I’m leaning on continuity and still favoring a light rain event, but it’s up in the air. I’m watching roughly 12/30 to 1/10 for above normal snow. We’re going to turn colder near/after Christmas, and drier to start, but I don’t think the dryness will last too long. After then, the Euro weeklies suggest we enter a very deep January thaw. While a distinct possibility and typical of La Nina, I’m not willing to commit to that yet. Way too far out.

  24. So, I think I may have posted a few days ago that I can’t recall much precip falling on recent Christmas Days and here’s how I remember that ….

    So, many years ago, we started releasing a few balloons on Christmas morning for those close family members who have passed on. We write a name on each balloon.

    The number of balloons has grown a bit over the years as I now do one for my mom.

    I can’t remember a recent time of ever releasing them in rain or snow. In fact, there’s been no low clouds or fog, so that we’ve been able to see them fly away for some distance.

    So, I think it would be nice to try a release in some rain or hopefully snow. Our biggest hazard has been years with wind, when inevitably, one balloon ends up stuck in a tree and we say that person wants to stay nearby today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Oh Tom. You gave me happy tears. I think you also paid your special tradition forward. As you know we release balloons on the anniversary of Mac getting his angel wings. 10 year old grand thought of it. I did not know you do the same. My family will love your story and I know all think of you

      If you have not seen the book by Jamie Lee Curtis, maybe look into it

      Where do balloons go…an uplifting mystery. The words are rest but some pictures are for the adults…one was bates motel from her moms …Janet Leigh….movie Psycho. She said it is parents who reads to the kids somshe thought she’d put in some smiles for the parents also

  25. Evening thoughts…

    Pleasant day today! Took out most of the rest of the snowcover here which is now just patchy. 2 shots to get some back, but the first, if it comes to fruition, may be largely lost by a few hours of warmth, and the second shot is still too far away to have any confidence about.

    NAM: Likely too far north with the boundary and therefore too far north with precipitation as well as too warm regarding Friday. The cold air that comes in tomorrow and establishes itself firmly on Thursday is going to be very stubborn to dislodge. We’ve seen this many, many times, yet there are still forecasters biting a warmer solution for the daytime for no other reason than “the models have it”. Again, “meteorology”, not “modelology”.

    Global models: My belief all along is that at least partially due to the normal “too far in the future” and “lack of sampling in important locations” that features have been forecast with too much amplitude and we’ve seen some correction in this so far. We’re not done seeing these models tweak themselves toward a most likely solution, so the wait-and-watch game should continue for a few more days, regarding any threat of rain/ice/snow for Christmas.

    Euro Weeklies: When they were showing one thing, and suddenly show something else. That’s a red flag. They are probably suffering from “GFS-itis”, trying to change the pattern too soon. Will keep an eye on this.

  26. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, or simply their subjective way of perceiving things. In my view, cold and snow around Christmas are fitting. They don’t have to happen. But, I do think it adds a little atmosphere to the festivities. I recall a balmy Christmas Eve two years ago and really feeling out of sorts. I wasn’t the only one human feeling that way. Friends expressed similar feelings. Animals were confused, too. You may recall that blossoms burst from dogwoods and other flowering trees, bees made a cameo appearance, and it all seemed quite of weird.

    While I like certain religious aspects to Christmas, and Hanukkah for that matter – the stories of both are worth retelling over and over again – most of our Christmas and Hanukkah rituals have nothing to do with religion, but have a lot to do with ways humans deal with the darkest days of the year in the northern hemisphere, and in particular the northern tier of the northern hemisphere. The Christmas tree is pagan and comes from what we now call Germany – when the tradition began it was a collection of fiefdoms. Lights were (and are) ways of overcoming the darkness. And though Santa Claus originates in Saint Nicholas – a patron saint for children and orphans (and is still celebrated as such in the Netherlands), the jolly man no longer conveys a message of Christianity or religiosity of any kind. He’s a gift maker and giver, which of course brings joy to many.

    My favorite memories of Christmas as a child were of course the gifts. But, I did remember my mother bringing me to Trinity Church for Candlelight Carols and singing Silent Night. It’s a tradition I carry on to this day. The German carol is a reminder of what Christmas truly means. Hearing it sung in Trinity is a remarkable experience. It’s one of the highlights of my year each and every year. And after the carols are done, I look forward to stepping out into the cold (and sometimes snowy) Copley Square. And boy does the hot chocolate taste better when it’s cold outside.

    1. they are about culture more so than religion. I know many people that are not Christian that loves to go look at trees and other x-mass activities.

    2. Just lovely, Joshua. How right you are that Christmas is about memories and rituals and family. I’ve read your comment several times. It simply resonates. Yours and Tom’s. How blessed we are to not only enjoy these special memories but also to share them with each other.

      I will make it my mission for my oldest grand to attend trinity Christmas Eve by candlelight. For him….the highlight of Christmas is carols in church by candlelight. We do not have a church in sutton, but we gather around Macs tree on the common on Christmas Eve and sing carols as a family by candlelight. The boys have actually been practicing all day 🙂

      Thank you for sharing

      1. I’m sure it’s a wonderful moment for you and your family to gather around Mac’s tree on the common on Christmas Eve and sing carols.

        1. It sure is but, Joshua, I would love my oldest grand to experience the trinity by candlelight on Christmas Eve. Wow

  28. We may need to slow the onset of warmth for Saturday’s forecast even further and make it even more short-lived.

  30. Meanwhile……the 0z GFS says cold and dry, kiss it goodbye….

    Nice New Years Day nor’easter though.

    I do like the looks of Christmas Day on into early January for sustained cold and some snow chances.

  31. Won’t have to worry about ice issues with the NHL outdoor winter classic at Citi Field between the Rangers and Sabres should what the GFS says happens. Although we all know that will change multiple times between now and then.

    1. Wow….a bit irresponsible at 6 days out? That must be their own proprietary model they are showing as it does not look like the latest Euro or GFS. Actually most resembles the Canadian.

    1. Thank you Mark. Now I don’t have to do it. 😀 😀

      Fat chance of that biggie happening, as much as I would like it.

  36. New post!

    Just got back from Logan where I was dropping some people off for a trip to NC. Lots of traffic at the airport! Highways were fine but it was the 5AM hour. 😉

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