Wednesday Forecast

101 Comments

6:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)
The final day of astronomical autumn today will present a return to the feel of winter as the wind picks up and temperature goes down behind a cold front. High pressure will move in tonight and Thursday with dry and cold weather, appropriate for the winter solstice, which occurs at 11:28AM Thursday. This is the point at which the sun is directly above the Tropic of Capricorn or 23.5 degrees south latitude. Technicalities aside, it’s the beginning of winter, but also marks the beginning of increasing daylight as we step on the proverbial bottom rung of the ladder on the climb back to spring and summer. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There is a long period of time ahead in which winter weather can and will occur, including some of that in this 5-day period. This will take place as a warm front approaches Friday and probably does not pass through the entire region until later Saturday, if at all. There is an increasing chance this boundary never makes it into at least northern MA northward. This will result in some snow/ice/rain across the region. We’d see plain rain take over where the air makes it above freezing, more likely near the coastline and especially southern areas if the warm front makes it through. Still some details to work out here. Regardless of how far north that boundary gets, a cold front from the west will push it all out of here by early Sunday, putting a new cold air mass into the region on Christmas Eve. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-44 this morning then falling through the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing, changing to ice/rain depending on location with ice more likely away from the coast. Highs 30-38. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain coast and south, freezing rain interior. Areas of fog. Large temperature contrast from near 30 many interior areas to the 40s to near 50 South Coast.
SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly sunny day. Cloudy with a risk of mix/snow by late night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to near 40.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)
Watching for possible mix/snow Christmas Day then mainly dry with below normal temperatures for the balance of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
1 or 2 minor to moderate events are possible, snow/mix favored over rain.

101 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Pretty amazing that numbers are flying for a Christmas event already. An event that may not even happen. wow!

  5. I hope the snow/ice arrives AFTER the start of school Friday. Can’t have a day lost to poor weather the day before a long break !!

    1. I am with you Tom! But of course it is for selfish reasons since I took a vacation day to finish up the wrapping. I need my boys to go to school that day. 🙂

      2. If the only time you’re going to comment is to put down other people, directly or indirectly, you are next to go. This is your final warning. If you have a problem with this, email me.

          1. Your question insinuated that I would want to put my kids in danger. While we certainly don’t know each other well I would hope that would have picked up on the fact that I would literally take a bullet for my boys. Not to mention that I also donate every year for your daughter’s charity. So while you may have thought you were simply asking a question, perhaps you should have put a little thought into who that question was directed.

            1. You insinuated, I did not. I did not imply anything about you. I simply asked a question and you flew off the handle. You should apologize.

              I would rather they cancel school and make it the day up in June than to release my kids in dangerous conditions.

          2. You know exactly what your intent was. I’m not stupid, sir.

            Now I have thanked you in the past for doing the work you did to help me get people here when this place was started, and I am indeed grateful for it. But that does not exempt anybody from the basic rules. Did you use insulting words in the comment? No. But the intent of the question was clear, and it was to paint her in a careless light. To me, that is an insult.

      3. I suppose one could say that Coastal’s original question could have been to me, because it is indented one column over from my comment and not from Sue’s.

        So, I’ll answer the ‘question’.

        Any decent, good teacher values the well being and happiness of their students over the content they teach them, any and every day.

        There is some trust, based on prior year’s experience, that busses, parent pickup and walkers will safely drive and/or walk in order to get all students home in a bit of snow and ice. Schools also have shown to let out students early, when its clear the weather will only worsen during the day. Finally, at least in Marshfield, our DPW is usually pretty good about salting the roads when they are aware one of the above scenarios with regards to schools are happening.

        So, what did you think Coastal? Did you think I would place more importance on not extending the school year another day over students well being?

        1. Tom, excellent and thoughtful response but don’t you think you should acknowledge the children’s safety in your original post?

          1. Why does one need to acknowledge their desire for the safety of children? Is it not implied by all who post here? Are disclaimers and caveats really required when posting any comment? This is not a peer reviewed journal, it’s a commentary board where we can be fairly certain all involved have a degree of compassion and understanding of the other posters here to not have to add a tag line “but I want to acknowledge that I want children to be safe.”

    2. Have to drive out and back to RPI, Troy NY, Friday morning / afternoon, to pick up one my boys, hoping for an okay ride… Will try to keep it on the early side, leave early a.m. His last test is Thursday afternoon, some kids even have Friday finals, crazy.

      2. My brother went to RPI late 1970s to 1980. Many memories of driving out with one of my brothers and my father to pick him up for the holidays. 🙂

        1. Well, I’m an alumni myself, class of ’85, along with my wife, class of ’85 also! So my son is a double legacy!

      1. Hoping for clear weather 12/29 and 12/30 for my trip to and from NYC to Phish. If not–oh well, there’s always the train!

    1. I’m traveling up to Portsmouth NH on Friday early afternoon and will be there a bit… this outcome looks a little better to me. lol

  14. So, the 12Z GFS wants to swing and miss for Christmas day.
    Sure didn’t miss with the Rain, but when it comes to snow SEE YA!!!

    Let’s see what EURO and CMC have to say.

  19. Looking at the GFS and I realize its the GFS ….

    when I look at the 12z run for Christmas Day, I think I can see a kink in the isobars, perhaps a west to east inverted trof, extending from the offshore low pressure area back to the system west of New England.

    Looks like it offers some convergence around northeast Mass, back into north-central Mass.

    Now, whether or not this is in anyway a plausible scenario, I have no idea …….

  20. Even at this point, deterministic details mean little regarding Dec 24/25 from straight model output. That will start to mean more tomorrow for the 24th and the next day for the 25th, but not to lose any focus on the application of meteorology throughout.

  22. Good afternoon.

    Was in a horrendous meeting and then got the hell out of here for some lunch.
    Looking over the 12Z runs, it looks like Christmas Day could be interesting.
    Not buying GFS OTS scenario. Where will everything set up? Ahh that’s the $64,000
    question. I have a feeling that the Coast is mostly Wet, while inland a ways may be
    white. We shall see.

    Euro is even more West than the CMC if that is believable. Not sure what the GFS is seeing, but it surely is different than the Euro and CMC.

    Let me check the UKMET….

    Without going into detail, the UKMET looks very similar to the CMC for Christmas
    Day.

    The JAM is an OTS scenario like the GFS.

  23. Couple of notes for Friday through Christmas.
    Friday into FRiday night before change over I feel like areas between the mass pike to rt2 could see a light snowfall. with a marginally moderate snowfall north of RT2 before the change over to freezing rain and sleet for areas north of the mass pike and areas west of I95 Friday night East of I95 and south of the mass pike I feel any snowfall will be minor and will likely see a change over to rain early morning.
    I think interior southern New England looks to have a very icy situation on our hands anyone outside of 128 needs to watch this.
    Christmas storm could be a different story as I do not believe the models at all, they are all over the place, we will just need to watch and see how the front of the saturday storm moves.

    2. 1-3 inches I-95 belt, 3-5 MA/NH border northward in terms of snow Friday. Leaning toward the lower side of those at the moment.

        1. I’m not overly concerned at the moment for Boston for Friday but that doesn’t mean they can’t get coated first. And the colder trend gives me pause.

          Don’t rule out accumulating snow for Christmas Day. Have a plan in place.

          1. Great regarding Xmas my wife, son And all the other family members will love that as well as the hundreds of folks traveling. Merry white Christmas , NOT !!!!!!!!!

            2. It’s a fact of life. We can’t change the weather, so my aim here is to prepare people for the possibilities. Nothing is a lock, so it’s not worth reacting as if it is. Just be aware of what may happen and plan for it.

              1. Absolutely Tk you know that wasn’t directed towards you . The weather will do what it’s going to do and we could get more Friday ( and that’s not looking huge Boston / south I think than Monday . People need to think before hitting that’s send button

    1. Love Bernie’s presentations. He thinks the Euro is correct.

      It’s Wendesday and we are talking about a storm Sunday Night into
      Monday.

      As presented a shift 50 miles to the East, pound Boston with snow.
      4 1/2 to 5 days out provides ample opportunity for a shift. Actually in
      either direction. Who knows.

      1. Seriously, I love his presentations.

        I am simply saying that no one, not even Bernie can say
        exactly what will happen with the Weather on Christmas Day.

        It may rain. It may Snow. It may do bother. OR it could even
        miss us, although I would say a total miss is getting less likely.

    1. I think this is reasonably close to what the outcome will be. Snow amounts may be a tad high in NH but can’t rule that out either. We’ve seen it.

      1. I was wondering about the NAM streaming too much of
        the snow to the North. We’ll find out soon enough.

        Thanks

  27. Aside from some possible Norlun shenanigans to drop and inch or 2 of snow, the 18Z GFS screams the Christmas storm Out to sea.

    1. Thanks as always Dr. S! The NBC Boston and NWS (as usual) amounts for Boston are way too high. Coating at best and even that may be a stretch. The precip as snow doesn’t quite make it to the Pike, unfortunately.

  29. So with the ch 5 map that looks like up to 1 inch for Boston but Harvey saying Boston 1-3 zone ??? Maybe it’s me

    1. If you read the map, the 3s meet north of Boston. It is 1 at the bottom of the area which is Boston-ish, ranging to 3 at the top to where the blue begins. Then 3 at the bottom of the blue to 6 at the top.

  30. The ice maps from the tv mets have the accumulation VERY close to Boston. I would say a persistent north wind would easily bring ice into the city itself.

  33. Here is a Tom special discussed by NWS:

    Very pronounced cold air damming signature Fri night with strong
    high pres to the NE and ridging pushing south into SNE. This will
    lock in the surface cold air across interior MA and the CT valley
    with freezing rain likely although there may be a lull in the precip
    for a time Fri night. There is also a risk that the low level cold
    air could drain south along the eastern MA coast including Boston
    late Fri night resulting in a period of light icing. This in
    response to a weak wave of low pres which moves into the Gulf of
    Maine with winds shifting to north helping to drain the cold air
    southward. Confidence is not high in this scenario but will need to
    be monitored closely.

      1. I mentioned that possibility earlier above just based on the tv mets ice maps as I hadn’t seen the NWS Discussion. Boston may very well get into the ice as well. The fact that Boston will no longer be getting into the warm air for Saturday is of even greater concern.

        Amazing how that Saturday temp forecast changed from 50s to 30s!

        1. Boston itself could still get a quick push of warm air Saturday evening but it may be only for literally 1 or 2 hours.

  35. TK – Is there any chance that the cold air can remain high above so that any precip can stay all snow as opposed to a change to freezing rain?

    1. Not throughout the event. Eventually that warm air is coming in aloft. It may take a little longer than some guidance indicates though. But that won’t make a big difference in snow amounts.

      1. For travelers or just getting around, it is too bad that the precip can’t be one or the other…all snow or plain rain. Ice would be awful.

        1. The good news is that this will be a well-forecast event and within 12 hours of it, most should be ready with treatment where it will be needed. If people use caution on stairs, walks, side roads, etc., main roads and highways should be fine. We’ll get through it.

  36. Harvey’s new thinking has Boston and just south squarely in the 1-3″ range for Friday and snow now more likely (as opposed to rain) for Christmas morning. 🙂

  37. Anyone see that all the ooz have gotten a bit cooler 🙂 for both systems 😉
    Also everyone who looks at models I am guessing have looked at the oozs for later next week/weekend. You want to know why I feel it will happen, because of the terrible timing for the party I am having.

    1. I like a colder solution for Sunday night / Monday but very fast-moving so that will limit snow amounts from what they might have been.

      Cold pattern wins through the first 2 weeks of January and holds the classic La Nina set-up at bay. Front loaded snow winter outlook remains the same.

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