Tuesday Forecast

105 Comments

9:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)
The predicted colder pattern is here and will remain here for some time to come. The next winter storm threat is for Saturday, and is too far away to pinpoint any details for, but will be monitored through the week. In the mean time, it will be about the cold and dry weather, with the tiny exception of the slightest risk of a snow shower later today as a few bubbles of moisture from the Great Lakes come along in the westerly air flow delivering the arctic air, which will be in good supply all the way through this forecast period, taking until Friday for its center to migrate from the Upper Plains to the Northeast. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing light snow shower. Highs 22-27 except 28-33 immediate shore and Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-7 except 8-13 immediate shore and Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times. Wind chill near 0.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18 except 18-23 immediate shore and Cape Cod. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior valleys, 3-8 most locations, 8-13 immediate shore and Cape Cod. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows -5 to 0 and 0-5 coast except 5-10 Cape Cod. Highs in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
Potential snow early December 31. Will watch another storm threat but may never materialize or may form and pass to the south around January 1-2. A lot of uncertainty on the evolution of things there. Dry and cold finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)
A winter storm threat is possible early in this period followed by more dry and cold weather.

105 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Love the detail on the temperature distribution. Nice touch.

    8.3 inches for Saturday, eh????

  2. Uncle NAM is mulling over conditions leading up to 12/30.
    Below is a link to the NAM at 84 hours or 7PM on 12/29.

    Main system is well off shore, BUT it also has a Great Lake System, a clipper if you will.
    WILL there be an interaction between the 2? ie an inverted trough? OR will we just get
    a little light snow or snow showers from the passing weak clipper?

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017122612/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    Of course, the NAM isn’t exactly stellar at 84 hours either. 😀

    Waiting on GFS and Euro to see IF they can figure out anything at all.

  3. Thanks TK
    7 years ago today the Boxing Day Blizzard. This was the storm that started a six week stretch of snowy weather. I remember a lot of roof collapses happening in January as the snow did very little in the way of melting and narrow streets with the snow banks that were building up. I don’t see that coming this winter but even when the pattern flips to milder and we end this front loaded winter I do believe there will be a good size storm in February.

    2. Nice JJ. Thank you. I remember that storm but could not have told you the year. As I recall there was a lot of damage down Tom’s way.

  5. Thanks JPD for those links to answer my question in the earlier blog. Too bad that the tv mets didn’t present that evolution in the proper way as you did so the viewing public can get a better understanding. It will be a matter of the two streams linking up. 🙂

  7. 1. my grandparents and myself were talking about the cold and they said you think this week is going to be cold? We had temperatures in the -10s and -20s all the time when they were younger, this week is not going to be cold lol.

    Anyways, to me the forecast through Friday is rather simple, Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 10s except today, Wind chills 10 below to 10 above. Lows within 10 degrees of zero.(-10f-10f) degrees
    Weekend a bit up in the air but looking more dry to me at the moment at least for those of us north of the pike.

    1. Sometimes this is convenient memory.
      I used to hear that stuff from my Parents and grand parents all of the time.

      Coldest day I ever remember while in Massachusetts was
      -17 degrees one morning in the 60s where I lived in Millis.

      Coldest weather I was actively out and about was skiing at Ragged Mountain
      in NH in the late 60s, early 70s and it was 14 below with a biting wind.

      Didn’t bother me a bit. It was awesome.

      1. I do think the weather this week is more typical of what we saw the majority of Christmas week. I spent the week on the slopes and it was cold. I liked skiing. I never loved it so bitter temps were something I would have been happy to sit out….but we never did.

        JPD, I believe -14/15 would have been the coldest I skied. I do remember one day the slopes were closed because of the cold. I was thrilled 🙂

        One thing we never worried about was wind chill. And I recall blankets being put under the hood on engines to keep them warm.

        Nice memories

        1. I used to have a heating stick that I would place in place
          of the oil dip stick. It would keep the oil in the crank
          case at least fluid enough to allow the engine to turn
          over in the morning. Without it the oil would be like sludge and wouldn’t allow the engine to crank, at least
          in the old crap boxes I was stuck driving.

    1. Looks to me as if the southern storm remains well off shore out to sea, however,
      something may click with the Northern stream clipper. Waiting….

  11. Right now, the 12Z GFS is advertising a near miss (Brush by) on the 1/2 system.
    2 down, 1 to go. So far striking out with the GFS and of course it doesn’t mean it
    is correct.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017122612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=162

    snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017122612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=189

    Wouldn’t take much of a shift to have an impactful event in Eastern section.

  12. Plenty of time for things to change. Remember Saturday night 0z GFS run had both the weekend and the 1/2 event affecting us.

    1. Yup, That is why I said that the above does not mean that the GFS is correct.
      Euro coming later. We’ll see what that has to say.

      1. Remember that winter when the storms would disappear for a few days and then come back with avengeance two days before the storm. Will be interesting to see today’s Euro 12Z run.

        1. Sure do and remember what SAK said about the models
          past 3 days.

          Still want to view the Euro, that’s for sure.

    2. We are more likely to get 3 snowstorms and 1 miss than we are to get 3 misses and a cutter during the next 3 weeks.

  17. Reminders…

    Deterministic details beyond day 3 will get you in more of a mess than dancing in horseshit and this goes for all models, even the ECMWF (see snowfall forecasts for example).

    The most likely problem with the GFS is that it has systems too far south initially, and then tries to change the pattern too soon later in its runs. Nothing new here.

  18. JP Dave you may want to do this little model exercise. Take note of today’s 240 hour forecast on the GEM (CMC) and keep track of how much that changes run to run up until January 5 on that model. You can do it for any model you chose but I’m picking on the Canadian for the moment.

  19. No snow this weekend . Can’t wait till the front end dump is completed but I know that won’t stop chances but The forecast that Tk presented seems to be working out good . So glad I had today in the books as a V-day .

      1. No snow meaning I don’t want it . I lost my 4 day weekend this weekend don’t want to loose my 4 day weekend this coming weekend .

        1. You may or may not get your wish. Still a few days
          before we really know.

          All I can tell you is that the 12Z Euro has backed off considerably from last night’s 0Z run. But this could
          simply be the “windshield wiper” effect that
          Bernie Rayno always talks about.

  20. re: This weekend system
    So far, the Euro is well off shore, but still throws some snow up this way.
    Waiting for another panel to see how much.

  22. 12Z ESS (Euro Storm Score):

    12/30 Partial Credit for a Brush by miss
    1/2 Swing and a Miss
    1/6 Jury is out, doesn’t look so promising on this run.

    1. Yikes! That’s brutal.

      Whenever crap like that happens, it would behoove the State of Ma
      to NOT charge patrons of the Pike. Nothing like paying a fee for sitting
      in traffic. You cannot imagine my anger is such situations! trust me.

      1. Don’t they all just drive through the sensors now?

        I rarely use the pike….maybe once or twice a year.

        I got info from patch but it is showing on my traffic app

        1. Yes and get Charged even though they sit in traffic for potentially hours. That sucks big time. They should TURN OFF the sensors/cameras or whatever.

          1. Right no toll booths, but the poor souls sitting
            in that mess will still get charged and that is WRONG! Dead wrong. Folks don’t pay that
            money to sit still for hours.

          2. I’m assuming you were replying to JPD not me. I agree. I don’t know cause of backup, but tolls or no….i don’t think it is their fault.

  25. I haven’t given up on Saturday snow yet, though the current guidance doesn’t look great and it’s possible this will be a “cold and dry, kiss is goodbye” scenario. But we’ll see. Giving it until tomorrow at least. Multiple additional storm threats favoring snow through around 1/10. After then, perhaps, we get into a January thaw.

    Regarding our “front loaded” winter, I think we’re getting mixed results but generally the pattern has played out about as expected. December is near normal on temps so far, but a bitterly cold finish will push it below normal, and January will start that way as well. So we’re getting some cold. Snow has not been too impressive. If Saturday is a miss, the month will finish a little below normal, which I would not have expected. We know snow is more fickle for seasonal forecasting than temps though. I am still very confident that the front half of winter will be colder and snowier than the back half, if only because I think both cold and snow will be lacking towards the end of this month and beyond.

        1. Definitely. Northern stream trough would have to dig more and turn neutral-negative quite a bit faster than what most guidance has now. But from my recollection that tends to be a common model correction inside 120 hours, which explains why many storms initially modeled as offshore (especially by the GFS) actually hit us. Need another 24-48 hours to see if that will be the case this time.

          1. That’s what I want to see. Based on what we see today, one wonders if it could happen. Let’s see
            what the 0Z runs bring and of course there is tomorrow.

  26. Re Mass Pike

    I drive the pike every day. $6 round trip per day. So about $120 a month. Pretty expensive when you consider we pay a lot of the freight for the Big Dig and north and south commuters on 95 and 93 pay jack squat.

    1. I agree and if you didn’t leave early enough you would sit in traffic from Weston (or farther out) to the Brighton-Allston tolls. And you would get that for
      your $6 dollar daily fee.

      1. That’s why I’m on the road by 5:15 am. I get in to work at 6:45. That way I can leave by 3:30 and get home by 5:30. Even at those hours, it starts to back up. That Pike needs another lane or 2 on each side.
        You can get the money you spend on the state gas tax back for miles driven on the pike. Since the toll pays for maintaining the road, the gas tax is redundant and can be refunded. HOWEVER, the paper work is onerous and ungodly. I’ve done it twice and found the time it takes to fill all that out, reconcile gas and toll receipts, it’s just not worth it.

        1. For the record, the traffic backs up in Framingham all the way to the Pru. If I leave at 630-7:00, it’s backed up from 495. Leaving when I do, it backs up around the state police barracks in Weston.

        2. When we moved to framingham in 1979 and traveled to Watertown for work, it would take us 25 minutes. Straight shot ….no traffic. How things have changed

          1. When I moved to Grafton in 2000, I could make it to Cambridge in 1 hour. Now it takes 1:45. 2:00 if you leave at 7.
            More people have moved west. Real estate is cheaper. I hated living in the city, which I did for 5 years. Hated every minute of it. I like it out here where it’s quiet and life is slower. I have a bigger house and more land than I could ever afford inside 128. The commute is part of the trade off.

    2. Son does as well. Mac drove it daily for decades and then started taking rt 30 to the entrance in newton so it didn’t cost him anything. It was more principle than money. He would agree with your comments. I don’t drive it for the same reason unless I absolutely cannot avoid it.

  28. I’m not looking at Saturday’s threat as a southern stream wave coming up the coast. It’s a small piece of energy to the south interacting with a strong disturbance in the polar jet stream. I don’t expect the models to have this feature resolved this far in advance, regardless of its track.

    Also take an 18z NAM run beyond 48 hours very lightly.

    As for a pattern change. Right around January 15. Always slower than most of the guidance will lead you to believe. Very rarely faster.

    MJO is a moderate player and the GFS Ensemble Forecasts are moving the phase shift too quickly, so look for it, albeit weak, to hang around Phase 1 for a while still. This is a snow enhancement phase, though it’s only 1 of several ingredients.

    1. Tk,

      Are you expecting a Norlun type set up? Curious.

      Also, Yup hear you loadly and clearly about NAM after 48 hours. 😀

      Now that you have said that, will watch with even more interest than
      I normally would.

  29. I wouldn’t bet a nickel on any of these model runs for the weekend. I wouldn’t bet a nickel inside 3 days. From what I have seen lately, your nickel would be at risk inside 12 hours.

        1. I think he’s probably referring to NWS changing their snow #’s right in the Metro area a few times around the start of the storm, including lowering Boston’s forecast snow to zero at one point.

  30. I hope the temperatures would stay in the 20s through February. I have a feeling we are getting our real cold now and will be seeing a warm February, the month in which I usually do most of my skiing.

    1. Still feel the same I did in November. Coldest, relative to normal, mid December to mid January. Doesn’t mean we can’t maintain some good skiing later in the winter. We have a solid start in the ski areas and if it doesn’t go too anomalously warm they’ll hold it and continue to make it.

        1. I just hope March into early April is a little better than the last few in the temp department. I know we had a warm spell year before last that killed the peach blossoms because they came out too early then we had a hard freeze. But I could use a decent March and early to mid April. Nothing worse to me than a nasty cold March and crappy April. But then again early spring in New England leaves a lot to be desired.

            3. BOOO!! No early spring, spring is the worse in my mind, mainly because of my allergies, Spring should only be april in my opinion, Winter and Summer with 2 months of fall and 1 month max of spring.

  31. JP Dave… If Saturday’s system is a producer up this way it would probably not involved a NORLUN setup. But there may be a hybrid depending on the orientation and # of low centers. TBD.

  33. I have guests over from the Netherlands. They absolutely love this weather. It’s “real,” as opposed to “fake” winter. They wonder why more people don’t take up skating on “natural ice” because we actually have natural ice on our ponds and lakes, which is fairly rare in Holland. Also, the sun shines frequently here, which it does not for very long stretches of time in Holland. 40s, dreary and overcast with light rain or drizzle is really atrocious (I don’t know anyone who truly likes it; though some may prefer it to snow and cold) and December has featured 21 days out of 26 of that kind of weather. This is the typical pattern, which sometimes caused seasonal depression in me. You have to also take into account that it’s dark until around 8:40am and the sunset is at 4:00pm, so you have close to two fewer hours of light. We’re blessed in Boston. No, it’s not San Diego, but we have plenty of sunshine and 4 “real” seasons.

    1. Nicely said, Joshua. And I enjoy San Diego but I would not want to live there. Just doesn’t compare to New England for me

      Enjoy your friends.

  35. Elaboration: It could be a system that is offshore that originated from energy to the south, a system in the northern stream coming along from the west, and an “arm trough” connecting the 2. In some ways it can act like NORLUN because it’s essentially the same thing, just not formed exactly the same way.

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