Wednesday Forecast

2:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)
Arctic air will dominate through this period. High pressure will control most of the time with dry weather. The exception will be Saturday when low pressure passing south of the region may be close enough to bring a period of snow to the region. Will keep an eye on this. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18 except 18-23 immediate shore and Cape Cod. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior valleys, 3-8 most locations, 8-13 immediate shore and Cape Cod. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows -5 to 0 and 0-5 coast except 5-10 Cape Cod. Highs in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs from the middle 0s to lower 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)
As a new year gets underway the cold pattern will continue. Will watch a potential storm threat around January 1-2 and possibly by the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)
A winter storm threat is possible early in this period followed by more dry and cold weather.

135 replies on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. And how about 1/4

    CMC – coastal hugger

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017122700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

    Euro – little more East than CMC

    https://imgur.com/a/LpJhA

    and GFS – weak and off shore

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017122706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

    FIM – looking good, although perhaps a tad too far West.

    https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2017122700/130/3hap_sfc_f216.png

    This far out, 3 out 4 models have it more as coastal hugger in one variation or another.
    Looks like interesting times ahead as we watch all of this unfold.

  2. NWS discussion about this weekend. They forgot to consult with TK.

    Discussion…

    Good model consensus remains for continuation of a strong PNA
    pattern with long wave upper trough axis over east central North
    America through this weekend and into next week. This will keep
    our region firmly entrenched in arctic air. Medium range models
    and their ensembles depict a strong short wave passage this
    weekend but probably too progressive and not enough amplitude to
    phase with southern stream energy. The trend has been for the
    surface low to be further offshore. Thus, we may see little more
    than flurries with upper short wave trough passage in southern
    New England. Nevertheless, it may be still a little too
    premature to totally dismiss a coastal storm, since the energy
    packets at play are currently passing through the Arctic and
    Pacific Ocean, regions with limited upper air data sites. We
    have kept low chance POPs for Saturday and Saturday night as
    still indicated by model blend guidance. Whether there is any
    snow or not, the weekend trough passage will open the door to a
    reinforcing shot of arctic air.

  3. The 1/4 system as depicted on the ECMWF will probably be 1 or 2 days later than that and not as strong.

  4. Good morning. Car loaded and heading for LI this morning. Iโ€™ll stay tuned to WTPK from there. 8 degrees in Lexington as we leave.

  5. Thanks TK !

    I’m looking forward to seeing the inner harbors and even seeing how far ice may extend out from shore at the shallow beaches 4 to 5 days from now. This stretch of cold will be impressive for its duration. Good luck to any polar plunge participants.

      1. I have no use for it thatโ€™s for sure. Even if one likes snow, you can get that at 30 degrees. Single digits and below zero are useless.

  6. -9 here this morning in my deep seated valley. Coldest low of 2017. Looking at dew points in the -10 to -14, if the breeze calms during some of the overnights we could be looking at some more crisp and cool and mornings….

    1. pattern remains same for the next 2 plus weeks. Cold and dry with numerous potential short waves plus OES along the coast.

        1. I donโ€™t like hats much either, Dave. Canโ€™t describe it, but it makes me feel like Iโ€™m enclosed in a space I canโ€™t get out of. I did break down and put one one this morning. I had a dentist appt this morning at 7 am, so I was out at 6:30 and my ears were freezing.

        2. I don’t ever wear a hat and I won’t wear a jacket when doing errands in a little while…just a sweatshirt. If I were out walking, I’d wear a jacket. They all make me feel exactly as you described. I just don’t focus on the temp but think about how it is invigorating. I do that in summer also, but it requires a bit more focus

          1. I see people driving in big heavy coats. I canโ€™t do that in the least. Iโ€™ll pull off even a hoody and have on a short sleeve shirt. Thatโ€™s why they make heated cars ๐Ÿ˜‰

            1. Cold bothers me like heat does Mrs JpDave. The cold air makes me physically ill. Makes it hard to breathe, my joints ache, and I get so cold that even bundled up I get a chill that makes me shake.

              1. When it gets so cold that I can not feel my toes in my boots when they are try, its to cold, usually happens when its around 10 or below. ๐Ÿ˜› I have a sweet spot of mid 20s for winter and in summer in the 80s rather low humidity.

      1. I wish I could, with everything thats going on, i doubt I will get out until later this month or February. I am not at the point that there is so much to do but I am not at the point of saying _______ I am going skiing ………yet, come back to me to this next week lol

  7. To me this tweet from weatheroptics is the reason we keep watching Sat.
    Overnight the 00z ECMWF EPS & and ensembles shifted to the NW w/ our Saturday storm. Other guidance remains mostly offshore. Remember the trend this winter so far โ€” Often a last minute shift back NW. Means we keep watching. 12z data will be interesting.

    1. JJ we need to keep in mind something that TK said yesterday and that
      was the Saturday’s system would be somewhat of a Hybrid system in some
      ways acting something like a Norlun. Therefore, the storm does not
      necessarily have to come closer to the coast.

      Take a look at these CMC maps that I posted earlier and you will see what I mean.

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017122700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017122700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

  8. Good morning again and a question for the Mets and Met students here.

    I Ordered a couple of Meteorology text books for Christmas.
    One was a TK approved text and the other looked to be a starter type text that was cheap that I decided to order:

    Mesoscale Meteorology in MidLatitudes (Tk approved)
    The Atmosphere: Am Introduction to Meteorology

    I received the Mesoscale one Yesterday and the other was on my porch when I left
    this morning.

    I perused the Mesoscale one and noticed right off the bat the 1st chapter or 2
    went right to differential equations to help explain the topic.
    I haven’t solved a differential equation in 50 years. Although I am degreed in
    Mathematics, None of the positions I ever held required me to do so.

    So my QUESTION IS:

    In a Meteorology program at the Bachelor level do the met courses jump right into
    calculus and differential equations? And if so, does the degree program include some intense mathematics? I am curious and the reason why I am so curious, is because way back when I was in high school and had an opportunity to have a one on one
    conversation with Don Kent, he told me to prepare for Meteorology by obtaining
    a bachelor degree in Math and/or physics and then study Meteorology in graduate
    school.

    Of course by the time I attained my degree hormones had taken over and I ended
    up getting married and raising a family and the met degree went out the window.

    Many thanks all.

    In any case, I am anxious to dive into my new toys. ๐Ÿ˜€

    1. I donโ€™t have the answer to your question. However I will tell you this: growing up I went to very low ranked schools. Filled with teachers who were just collecting a pay check. No zeal for the subjects they were tasked to impart their knowledge on. Nowhere was this more apparent than the singular teacher I was assigned for math. Combine a monotone voice with a disinterested demeanor, add a room that had almost no windows and would either be super hot or very cold – no in between – and mix in my teenaged apathy and slacking and you had the perfect combination for no math skill whatsoever.

      That said: Iโ€™ve now begun to take free courses on khan academy. They are fantastic at picking up wherever you so desire to refresh and further educate yourself. Theyโ€™ve even got a specific learning module for differential equations! Did I mention itโ€™s free?

      Sorry if Iโ€™ve gone off the beaten path with my response but once I saw the phrase differential equations I couldnโ€™t help myself. lmao

      1. Are you kidding. No, I appreciate your response.

        As an aside, I had a calculus professor in college who’s
        favorite expression was: “that’s intuitively obvious”
        Of course, it NEVER was!!!

    2. Hi JP,

      The Mets around here will give you better info. But when I went to Plymouth state for Meteorology they did recommend having at least a minor in mathematics and yes we had some pretty intense mathematics.

      On another note the weather this weekend could this be a similar setup as a few years ago with the system way out at sea but we got a ton of snow because of the easterly winds off the ocean.

      1. Thanks Tj. Appreciate it. I was curious and didn’t know for sure.
        Then for certain your average Joe would be hard pressed
        to earn a degree in meteorology. ๐Ÿ˜€

      2. On the other note:

        That would be way cool AND TK was tuned into this quite a while ago. It amazes me with his ability. Way beyond most mets.

        If that situation was the event we had in March several years ago, then it is not the same set up. I can assure you of that.

        The set up featured a long EASTERLY fetch at 850mb, 700mb and 500MB.

        But none-the-less, could be productive in its own right.

  9. Water temps now at 45. Probably by the time those temps get down below 40, the front loaded portion of the winter will be over.

    TK – What are your thoughts for February given the early spring potential?

    1. Similar setup to a few years ago when that storm several hundred miles to the SE buried eastern MA in snow?

  10. As someone who gets around by the T, I wear all the gear. The only item I don’t wear is a scarf. Never have, never will.

    I do admit that years ago when I did drive, I did wear the coat and hat inside. It wasn’t all that uncomfortable driving prior to the seat belt law.

  11. The “center” of low pressure is not always the key to precipitation. Look at the overall pressure setup for Saturday. Elongated low pressure. Large area of upward motion. That’s where your snow will be generated.

  12. JP Dave… I loved reading your comment above. I could talk forever on this subject. Incidentally, that book will be the one used in my Mesoscale Meteorology course next semester. Yes, we don’t take an actual official Meso course until second semester senior year. Luckily, I’ve had some electives which dip into certain aspects of the mesoscale.

    In the met program at Plymouth (but it’s about the same anywhere), we take three semesters of Calc and one of differential equations. It’s very hard. But I got A’s in all of them and will graduate with a math minor. We don’t use it much in the upper level met classes. Yes, we derive equations using it, but only pieces of it, and outside of Dynamic Meteorology courses, we spend little time on and are not expected to know derivations. It’s very helpful for understanding how the atmosphere works, and I’ve certainly learned a ton about that the past few years, and I couldn’t have without the math. But, IMO, forecasting is at least as much an art as a science, and the textbooks today and many of the courses put WAY too much emphasis on the science, and not on ways to actually make a skilled, practical forecast. Much of what I’ve learned about that art aspect, I’ve taught myself, and coupled with the scientific rigor of my coursework, I think I’ve become a decent forecaster, though with plenty more to learn of course. I’ve openly stated at school that one could get through the met program without having hardly any idea how to actually make a forecast. And I plan to be more open on that going forward…

    And as a final note, no meteorologist is actually solving differential equations when they make their forecast. Please do not ever believe anyone who says they are. Please.

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. No I never assumed a forecaster was using differential
      equations. I was just curious as to how much of that is in the course work.

      Many thanks for your insightful response.

    2. and thats part of why I moved away from majoring in Meteorology, the calc requirements. After cal 1 I was done with that crap. Hated that stuff. Struggled to get a C in that. Hate Math in general when its by itself. I am more a statistics guy as I got A’s in all of those lol.

  13. I gotta say, I’m very impressed by this cold over much of the US. They even set a record at International Falls this morning. That’s hard to do. I remember making a comment awhile ago that “cold ain’t what it used to be”. And while that is true in a general sense (we set many more warm records than cold ones these days), this is a true Arctic cold blast, and will go down as noteworthy in both intensity and duration. Freezer door wide open.

    1. To me, not so much the intensity (although PLENTY cold) as I have seen much worse, however, the duration may be most noteworthy.

    2. I would agree, WxW. Cold isn’t what it used to be but this is more like decembers of my youth and my parents. I understand there are exceptions and always will be. The climate it is a changin’. It seems as if this is the exception to the warm records….a flip ๐Ÿ™‚

  14. re: Saturday
    Most interested in seeing the Euro.
    Also, want to see what it has to say about 1/4 and see if it is still bullish
    like the CMC. Even the GFS has something for 1/4.

  15. I was outside briefly and feels considerably better in comparison to yesterday. Yesterday felt very brutal. Maybe my imagination?

    I know the cold only gets worse from here. ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. Word Press blows. Twice I tried to respond here
        and it said I am posting too fast and then when I wait and hit
        post again, it goes to the end of the page!

        I can’t see the ensembles just yet. ๐Ÿ˜€

  16. I believe the models are biting on the wrong short wave for the 1-4 event. It’s the one behind that.

    1. Tk so I know itโ€™s earky but is Saturday looking like a big storm at this point . I also have bruins tickets for the 6th I hope we can go as I believe you also have that for a watcher .

      1. I do not think Saturday will be big. But it may be “moveable” in some areas.

        The 6th is way out there but it’s a watcher for the system currently advertised for the 4th. I have tickets but not until January 17.

  17. TK – You mentioned above that there is a correlation between ocean temps and cold outbreaks, if I understood you correctly. Can you explain?

  18. SSK…just curious. Are you and your son going to the Pats game on Sunday regardless of the weather or might you have to come in to work that day should it snow this weekend?

    1. Yes to the game itโ€™s my first & his first game . As far as the snow Iโ€™ll cross that bridge when it gets closer .

  19. I only read the Globe headline that the current cold snap is a “once in a century event.” Have not read the article, but the headline is totally false. In January 2003 and 2004 we had extended periods of cold that had temps barely making it out of the single digits. Remember those Patriots playoff games in the bitter cold – the one against the Colts sticks out.

    1. They really need to cut the crap with these 50, 100, 500, 1000 year events. We have NO way to accurately measure these and they also don’t occur at regular intervals.

    2. headlines smedge lines. total bull crap.

      I remember one stretch when My children were young where
      Logan set a record or came close to setting a record for consecutive
      days below 32. And then it barely got above like a degree or 2 and then
      went another 5 days below 32.

      I remember driving down to Nantasket Beach in Hull. On the way down we
      could see that QUINCY BAY was completely frozen over along with Hingham harbor. As we arrived at Nantasket, we could see the OCEAN itself
      frozen for at least 1/2 mile out. NEVER saw anything like that in my life.

      I cannot remember the year. It may have been before my son was born in 78 Or it may have been a couple years after. My brain cannot compute.

      1. Ok, I think I found it. Winter of 1980-1981

        Here is a Graph I found. Click on image to enlarge.

        https://imgur.com/a/aZG5E

        Looks like it stayed below freezing from Dec 13 through Jan 25 or 26. Just made over 32 and then stayed below 5 more days into Early Feb.

        Perhaps I messed up, but this looks like the time period

        Now that was a COLD SNAP. How dare them say this cold snap
        is once in a century cold snap. This was only 25 years ago or so.
        OH, I see, it was in the last century. ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€

        1. I think I remember it being 32 days. Of course it was
          below freezing for close to 40 days+ inland like Worcester.

  20. Sorry but Will have to disagree, we do have the means to measure these events. Some of which been formed in the past 10 years. If people need proof I will gladly show you. I have used some of these myself. there is a reason why there been formations of some degrees in the past 15 years that include, Ecology, Biology, Atmospheric sciences, Marine science all in one ๐Ÿ˜‰ Some in one field might know what the other field has in terms of measuring major events occurring on the earth but if we put them all together we can get a rather clear picture. ๐Ÿ™‚ These events have been shown to increase in times of changing climate anthropologically or not. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. terrible english, should read Some in one field might not know what the other field has in terms of measuring major events occurring on the earth but if we put them all together we can get a rather clear picture

  21. 3:11 PM NWS discussion regarding Saturday:

    Saturday and Saturday night…Most likely scenario at this time
    looks to be flurries from passing upper trough. Although looking
    less likely based on model trends over the last 24 to 48 hours,
    cannot totally rule out a coastal low close enough to produce
    measurable snow. Have retained low chance POPs for this time
    period. There could also be a somewhat higher chance of snow
    over the outer Cape due to potential ocean effect enhancement.

  22. The low temp today reached -40 F in Oymyakon, Sakha Republic, Russia โ€ฆ known as the coldest city in the world. Oymyakon, with a population of 500, is expected to get a little colder as the week goes by. We are 60 degrees warmer!

  23. I think some snow showers could form Late Saturday through Sunday as a piece of energy cuts across the area from the lakes. I think if this was quicker and met with the southern stream we could have a better chance of accumulating snow

  24. I think we can forget about Saturday snow, at least anything significant. Cold and dry in a progressive flow. Today wouldโ€™ve been the day to see a big shift towards a storm in guidance. It actually went the other way.

  25. Pete said on air that he is cautious about Saturday and is not writing off the snow just yet. He mentioned that a trough could develop and drag some moisture west- northwestward towards us. Is this similar to a Norlun?

    Pete also mentioned a major January thaw for the 2nd week of January!

    Fwiw, his 10-day forecast had no snow at all for next week…not even a cloud that I could tell.

        1. The one thing I would never attribute to Pete is confusing viewers. He is second only to Eric IMO for being very clear and taking the time to explain

  26. I hope this isn’t a Swing and a Miss with the 1st threat. And further hope that additional threats don’t go the same way.

    1. Here’s how I figure this is gonna go…..

      Too cold to snow for the next 2-3 weeks then a flip to a milder pattern only to set us for more mix storms.

        1. Nobody said a front loaded winter means feet and feet of snow. Winter also means cold and dry as well. It also means the pattern is right to potentially produce cold and snow. Weโ€™ve had near normal December snow. We had a white Christmas, and now itโ€™s cold as a bats ass. Cold we usually see in late January and February. Seems a bit front loaded to me. Just because the patterns right for snow doesnโ€™t mean we get it. Winter just started last week.

          1. The winter will be front-loaded, meaning our biggest cold outbreaks and snow chances will come during the first half of the season.

            Above is definition according to wbz weather team.

  27. So re 100 years

    Pamela on wbz said

    1917/18 last time there were 7 days in a row with high in Boston not hitting 20 deg

    Also, Spring settled in that year by end of march and into April

    I’d think we have enough records to know that…..no?

    1. Boston received 45.7″ of snow that 1917-18 winter season. Will it be a repeat one hundred years later? ๐Ÿ˜‰

      1. I think it was the temperature not hitting 20 for seven days steaight that that they were referring to for the record.

        1. Yes, I understood that. I was only bringing out another stat (snowfall) for that particular winter of 1917-18 and wondered out loud if Boston could receive the same amount (45.7″) for this season as well. Of course, that temp record has to at least tie before other stats can be compared.

          1. Ahhh got it. I explained to TK that I wasn’t sure what front loaded meant. Had a migraine last night so focus was not my friend ๐Ÿ™‚

  28. The front loaded winter, which does not mean insane snow amounts, is essentially already a done deal if you take the month of December (1st month of meteorological winter), which will come in at least normal for snow and below normal for temps with a significant cold stretch to end it.

    It’s also pretty solid that the cold will continue for at least the first third of January (overall), with additional snow threats.

    I think we have a fair shot at a light to locally moderate snowfall Saturday. I still believe the guidance in general is in error regarding timing beyond that next threat. This will work itself out.

    Also, not so fast on the “major warm up” mid January. It won’t be that drastic.

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