Sunday Forecast

156 Comments

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
Arctic cold is reinforced for this final day of 2017 and the first couple days of 2018 as a healthy northerly air flow is in full control. Moderation arrives about January 3, allowing temperatures to be below normal, instead of much below normal. This will all be with dry weather other than the risk of a passing snow shower sometime New Year’s Day with a disturbance crossing the region. Although this threat is several days away, we’ve been watching for the evolution of an ocean storm around next Thursday. At this point I’m expecting 2 main areas of energy, the one offshore with the main storm, and another one coming across the Great Lakes, to not phase up in time to create a big winter storm here, but rather being missed or grazed by an ocean storm. So based on this idea, will carry a chance of snow on the day 5 forecast for Cape Cod but leave the remainder of the region dry for now.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill will below 0 at times.
NEW YEAR’S EVE: Clear. Temperatures fall to 0-10. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often -5 to -15.
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows -8 to +3. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often -10 to -20.
MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 9-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow favoring Cape Cod. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows -3 to +7. Highs 12-22.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Snow or snow shower threats January 6 and 8 otherwise a very cold and mainly dry pattern during this 5-day period. Records may fall.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
Temperatures remain below normal but with at least a period of moderation possible. Winter storm threat may appear later in the 11-15 day period.

156 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Barry has several inches of snow on Thursday even if the storm is well offshore. He also introduces the possibility of mix/rain for coastal areas as well. Fwiw, NWS concurs with that thinking as well…for now.

    Yes, I do understand it is still days away. 🙂

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Regarding High Tides for Thursday. re-post

    JpDave says:
    December 31, 2017 at 8:35 AM
    11.4 high tide Thurs PM.

    Here is a graph:

    http://tides.mobilegeographics.com/locations/679.html?y=2018&m=1&d=4

    Link to tide charts (scroll down to pick date, click on map to change location):

    http://tides.mobilegeographics.com/locations/679.html

    Reply
    JpDave says:
    December 31, 2017 at 8:36 AM
    For sure can change location at this site

    http://www.sailwx.info/tides/tidemap.phtml?location=679

  4. 0.1 inches of snow yesterday at Logan

    Total snowfall to date = 9.2″
    Total for December = 9.2″
    Departure from normal = +0.2″

  5. Regarding Cold, here are the lows the past several days at my house in JP:

    Tuesday: 13.5
    Wednesday: 9.6
    Thursday: 4.3
    Friday: 0.9
    Saturday: 4.0
    Sunday: 6.3

  6. Reposted from the prior entry.

    One of the reasons I post less is because I too often agree verbatim with TK and I certainly don’t want to seem like I am ganging up on opposing perspectives or discounting the weather enthusiast.

    However, I have heard and read way too much about this potential historic west coast storm. What historic if you go back in history to January 1 2018?

    Seems like Barry just went all verbatim on 00z ECMWF.

    That model run seems to ignore the northern stream shortwave altogether and just creates some slow moving, but rapidly intensifying southern stream storm and then keeps the precip going with a bizzare reflective trough 400 miles south of the storm center in Canadian maritimes.

    Colder, faster, with what precip that does fall being in the form of snow with limited mix issues would be an outlook I would be comfortable with.

    1. JMA,

      Thank you for your thoughts. We always love to hear them.

      TK kept mentioning that NS shortwave as well.

      Wonder why experienced forecasters ignore that other shortwave?
      The models? Well that is a different story.

      2. Yes, Thanks JMA – I hope I didn’t cause any issues posting Barry’s thoughts. When I get up for work and out the door, it is all the info I can go by until I come here on the blog. 🙂

  7. From the NWS regarding the 1/4 potential

    Focus during this period continues to be potential significant
    coastal storm, but uncertainty in track makes snowfall forecast
    uncertain. There remains significant spread among deterministic
    and ensemble guidance, so all possible outcomes remain on the
    table from a coastal grazer to a significant snowstorm with
    ptype issues along the coast. It is interesting to note that
    even if storm tracks well offshore, potent upstream trough may
    lead to some sort of inverted trough extending well back to the
    west    , so some snow is likely across SNE even with an eastern
    solution.

    1. That trough is the key. Without it, it could very well be a miss.
      I’ll enjoy watching this unfold. 12Z runs can’t get here fast enough. 😀

        1. Well they used the term some sort of inverted trough

          So perhaps not a True Norlun by definition, but something
          along those lines with a similar result. That is IF I am
          interpreting their words properly.

  9. Thanks TK. Another frigid day. We had about 0.5” snow in Wrentham yesterday. I would concur with those who thought we may have set some sort of record for “least amount of snow for most consecutive hours of snow.”

    I’m also leaning towards a mainly offshore storm for Thursday at this point, but much remains to be ironed out, and a storm this potentially strong may not play by all the rules of a “normal” coastal storm. In other words, as the NWS discussion hints at, it’s possible we could see accumulating snow even if the low center is well outside the “usual” location. Tomorrow/tomorrow night will be a key time in this evolution as we start to sample the pieces better.

    1. There I am…

      Just want to thank you, as always, TK, and wish everyone in the WHW Family and us all on our beautiful planet a Happy and Peaceful 2018!

  12. I know less than zero about atmospheric science. I am an enthusiast but also a realist. Having lived here my whole life, there’s one thing I’ve observed with overall New England weather and that’s that patterns tend to generally lock in and hang in there for a while whether it be cold, dry, snow, rain, humidity…..

    I love screaming snowstorms but no way I’m going against what I know about patterns around here.

    Stick with cold and dry people for a while still and you might be less disappointed. This has the feel to me of one of those early 80’s winters.

    I’m cheering on for TK (who is dialed in) to nail his early spring thoughts. I hate this kind of cold.

  13. The most consecutive days without hitting 32 degrees is 16 set in 1961. 2015 comes in at number 2 with 15.

    The last time it was 32 during this stretch was Christmas early evening.
    Do you think we have a shot at the record? We’d have to be under 32 through Wednesday, January 10. Do we have a shot of above 32 this Wednesday?

    Go Pats!

    1. Captain,

      Not sure this is correct.

      I posted something the other day. I believe the record in Boston
      For consecutive days under 32 is ironically 32. And then it went above
      a bit for 1 day and there were 5 more days below 32. I’ll find and re-post.

      Also, not for nothing, but Boston is on the verge of setting another cold record.
      Consecutive hours under 20 Degrees. We were at 80 hours as of 11PM last night.

      SO we are approaching 91 hours and counting. This record is going down.
      Of course they have only been keeping it a short period of time, so It will be broken often. 😀

      1. Ok, I think I found it. Winter of 1980-1981

        Here is a Graph I found. Click on image to enlarge.

        https://imgur.com/a/aZG5E

        Looks like it stayed below freezing from Dec 13 through Jan 25 or 26. Just made over 32 and then stayed below 5 more days into Early Feb.

        Perhaps I messed up, but this looks like the time period

        Now that was a COLD SNAP. How dare them say this cold snap
        is once in a century cold snap. This was only 25 years ago or so.
        OH, I see, it was in the last century.

        1. Thanks for the research OS! I’m going to do some as well. I was ten years old then but I remember it being f’ing cold.

    1. I see. One would think that Eric would have it correct, no?

      I honestly think he is incorrect. I vividly remember that winter 1980-81
      I saw parts of the open ocean frozen. The waters were frozen from Cape Cod
      to Nantucket. They had to use ice breakers to get any ships into Nantucket.

      Something fishy here. Hope it is not my memory, But I did find that
      graph above and it shows below 32 for 32 days. I guess I need to find it
      elsewhere????

    1. I humbly stand corrected. It was NOT that Winter.
      I just checked the daily MAX temps for each day for Boston.
      It was damn, cold, but not for the consecutive days I stated.

      There were 7 days from 12/31-1/6
      and 11 days from 1/8 through 1/8
      1/7 had a high of 34 to kill the streak.

      Here were the highs

      12/31: 24
      1/1: 25
      1/2: 30
      1/3: 15
      1/14: 12
      1/5: 24
      1/6: 28
      1/7: 34
      1/8: 18
      1/9: 18
      1/10: 21
      1/11: 12
      1/12: 15
      1/13: 21
      1/14: 21
      1/15: 25
      1/16; 28
      1/17: 26
      1/18: 25

      My Apolgies

      1. Geez. We’ve got a damn good punch in the face working toward those numbers. I keep watching my weather station and we go from like -1 to 8. Amazing consecutive days of tight cold range.

  18. 3 alarm fire in Franklin . I pray for the family involved and the fire fighters battling in this brutal weather. They are not warm and have to deal with cold cold water

          1. I am not totally sure . I assume it is a house fire . Heard 3 alarm fire on scanner . I should have listened to the address

  19. Some very subtle shifting of upper level features leading to a shift west with the Thursday storm on the 12z guidance so far, the GFS and CMC at least. I suspect the Euro/UKMET will come west a bit as well. Small changes in projections of these upper level features have much larger impacts at the surface, so, again, expect continued model shifts.

  24. Saw this post on twitter from crankyweatherguy—no idea if he is legit or not. Can someone comment on this—accurate or not?

    Major arctic air looking to clash with deep tropical air. Something big will be born. Yet about tracking here: We DONT want 40/70. It’s coming out of deep warm tropical air & it’ll bring that with it. 40/70 means I95/Urban rain. Plus, huge storm: 40/65 puts a hit on the region.

    1. My only comment would be that the CMC pretty much supports this.

      Something BIG could be brewing. It could not. It could be a hit. It could not be a hit.

      Too early to say, but It has our interest.

      For one thing, the models have hinted at this for days.
      Could they be getting it all wrong? Yup.

      We shall see.

      In the meantime, 1/2 time look at the Euro. 😀

  25. CMC a good hit for me 12z GFS around 2 inches. IF this thing trends west some look out but even if it doesn’t such a large storm will have impacts especially eastern areas.

  26. Ryan Hanrahan’s thoughts about Thurs in this tweet
    Tough forecast for Thursday. Big southern stream disturbance and big northern stream trough. Seems unlikely they phase in time for a blockbuster storm here but digging trough and some moisture should allow snow to extend unusually far west of storm.

    1. He’s going with the trough idea and not a close pass from the off-shore low.

      Hmmm complicated, yet ALL of the models BLOW up the storm
      system.

      Most interesting to follow this one.

  27. UKMET is in

    http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

    http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

    Looks like a solid hit here.

  28. I just don’t want rain/mix introduced in this. With all this cold, I want ALL SNOW for Boston. I had a pleasantly surprising fluff for Christmas and I don’t want to have to deal with moving waterlogged, icy crap that will certainly flash freeze.

    1. For sure there would be a flash freeze if it rains at all or even if snow
      gets wet. That would be a very very bad scene.

      If TK, JMA and Ryan Hanrahan are correct, all will be fine.

      If they are wrong and we get a BOMB, well who knows.

      Watching…… waiting on Euro

    2. It seems that every year we have games like this when HOME field is on the line. I don’t recall in which a team loses and we backed in. I believe we have always earned it by winning outright. There may have been an exception a year here or there. 🙂

  32. The last time it was this cold at the start of a regular season home game for the Patriots was December 1977.

  33. 12z ECMWF is starting to adjust toward the outcome I think we’ll have. It’s not there yet.

    IF the first system is the stronger of the two it will probably max out far below this latitude. That supports further east of the deep moisture and big QP.

    Also, this is a going-out-on-the-limb forecast but the 2 streams may never phase with that first one, and may actually attempt to do it with a second disturbance coming out of the Midwest / Mississippi Valley on Friday.

  34. Yup, i was going to post about the Euro. TK took care of that.

    Even so, an interesting situation.

    I continue to watch.

  37. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What was Boston’s lowest and highest temperature in 2017?

    A. 3 & 93
    B. 2 & 95
    C. 0 & 97
    D. -3 & 99

    Answer later today.

  38. Still chasing it and the first 3rd of meteorological winter has gone with a ho hum amount of snow. We are on to the middle third. The big story has been the cold.

  40. 18Z NAM is in and Advertises a Biggie.

    Here are several features.

    1. Surface at 84 hour

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017123118/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

    2. 500 mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017123118/namconus_z500a_us_53.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017123118/namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

    3. 250 mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017123118/namconus_uv250_us_53.png

    4. Snow 10:1 for South Eastern states, noteably FLORIDA!!!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017123118/namconus_asnow_seus_29.png

  42. I hope no one is going there to Northern Florida to escape the cold with what the NAM is showing. Probably won’t happen but don’t usually see accumulating snow for Northern Florida.

    1. Tis quite rare. And remember this is 10:1. Even if it did snow, there would be
      warm ground and marginal surface temps with wet low ratio snow further reducing accumulations. But an inch or 2 may not be out of the question.

  43. Re: pats
    Ho Hum, they got the job done. Benefited from six (6) 3rd down penalties resulting
    in 1st downs. (I think it was 6 if not, then 5)
    Lewis looked good.
    Considering the football was a blob of cement, Brady was fine. Perfect? Nope. Good enough? Yup.

    Onto….wait Whoever it is (Baltimore? Jacksonville?) they’re coming here. 😀

    1. I think they could use the bye week. Their play is still lackluster to me on D and the O-line has had ups and downs.

    2. Both those teams have the recipe to beat the Pats. Tough D and adequate offence. Pats are ripe for the picking this year, something doesn’t smell right with this team.

  44. Pats: No surprises. Good game. Secured the win before the 3rd quarter was over. Jets were DONE. Rested some guys. Onto the playoffs.

    Weather: 18z GFS op run gives a whopping 1-3 inches to the region Thursday. Onto the next run. 😛

      1. Not at this point. No models show it. This is based on anticipated model error. It may blow up in my face.

        1. Just don’t want my son to have two disappointments in one week as Saturday is the bruins game he got for Christmas and we know if it snows ( even a little ) what happens .

    1. Yes I just shook my head at wankum. He did however stress it was not official but did say will need shovels Thursday.

        1. My son in law had to shovel…or scrape….the half inch we had yesterday. Normally, it would melt, but It is too cold to go anywhere.

        1. I like him and I guess the fact that he lives Down here I just kind of shake my head lol . He’s an incredible handy guy .

        2. But he said it was not official. I am afraid I don’t understand the criticism of the Mets. It is four days away.

            1. I appreciate your nice reply SSK.

              That is the dictate of the network so why find fault with the messenger. I figure when we have walked a few miles in their shoes the maybe we can criticize….or maybe not.

              I just do not see the purpose. If someone wants to help me understand, I’d sure appreciate it

        1. And just a what if? Put a map up (I did not see it)
          say for 3-6 inches across the area. Make people think
          it won’t be a big deal. What IF it turns into a monster
          and we get 2 feet? What the hell good did that map do?

          NO GOOD at all.

          WAIT before putting the snow maps out until
          there is a much better handle on the situation.

  49. I am not counting on anything,
    I am still going with anything passed 3 days is absolute BS. I just do not trust any of them right now.
    The thing is that they all show something in that time frame and I feel like the coast needs to prepare for large waves and coastal erosion now, I believe the tides are rather high right now.

    Also its freaking cold, I love the snow, I like temperatures in which the ski areas stay powder/packed powder but being around 0 for so long is starting to get to me lol especially since I had to go on the roof and crack some ice… which should never of happened with the new equipment we have up there.

  50. Wankum can put up a snow map 4 days out. I don’t agree with it, personally, but it’s his weathercast. As for saying we will definitely need shovels Thursday? Too early. The door is open for a complete miss still.

    1. That’s the thing.

      The door is open for a complete miss, but it is also open for
      a Highly impactful event AND everything in between. Way too early for a snow map.

    2. Four days to me is welcome. I like to know what might happen. As I have said before, the majority understand it is a work in progress. Those who end up complaining that “gee wankum said this or that” are the same ones who will complain that they got 1 and it was forecast for 1-3 so they should get 3. Why play to them?

      Someone really needs to explain to me why we need to wait until a day before to be warned that there is a potential.

      1. You can warn of potential with words like “light”, “moderate”, “major” etc, several days out. Numbers confuse a lot of people. They see those numbers that that becomes the final forecast. I realize that you and many are competent enough to understand how things can change, but unfortunately many do not.

        Time and time again in my daily life I get things like “But ‘such-and-such’ said we were going to get 8 inches. What happened?” And when I ask them when they heard that, it will often be 2 days or more prior. They are unaware of updates, and just have that initial forecast they are going by. It happens to me time and time again and I’m having to explain to them how to listen to and interpret forecasts. That could be avoided if 1) they stopped airing model data and 2) they thought a little before making numbers public too early.

        1. That is fair enough and thank you. I do not believe the majority are not intelligent enough to understand that four days out means there will be change.

          If a met States it is preliminary and the listener chooses not to listen….that is the fault of the listener. If there is a report or a potential storm, I believe an intelligent person would like to know the areas of potential greatest or least impact. And while I understand there are many who will criticize, I believe the majority do not. And those who do criticize will do so whether it is four days out or one day out. Why do we dumb down for the few?

          And a larger question…..we know for a fact that the Mets are instructed by the network to get information out first. Why do we here constantly find fault with them? If I were reading here, I’d think those commenting feel the Mets are the ones at fault and not the network heads. It just seems really unfair to me.

          1. I tend to place blame on the higher ups at the stations but I am guilty of sometimes directing it toward the met in my haste to expel the frustration. Maybe it’s just the system I’m disenchanted with. 🙂

            1. 🙂 more than fair comment, TK.

              And heck, we are all guilty of misdirecting. As you know, this is simply a pet peeve of mine. I know Mets are reading here and I like for them to understand we appreciate them as well as understand what they have to deal with

        2. If you saw how Bri just put it in her blog just now that’s the right way to do it , no mention of numbers .

          2. I think my point is being lost and that would be on me. I do not understand where we get to decide what is right and what is not right. That is why I left the WBZ blog. It is their job and I have a choice of who to watch. We also have a choice of who not to watch.

            I give up.

  54. For the record, if I had to issue a snow map right now I’d have to say: “some accumulation possible on Cape Cod and leaning toward a miss elsewhere”. That’s the only thing I feel comfortable with at the moment.

    I leave it up to the individual forecasters at this point to decide what they’d like to do. I suppose the forecasts will live or die on their own and then viewers can decide what to do.

    It can get a bit frustrating when people press you for numbers before you are comfortable issuing them, and then say “well they said x to y inches, why can’t you give me what you think?” They just need to understand we’ll all do it the way we will do it, and as Vicki said, people can decide who to watch / listen to, and who not to.

      2. I can dfinitely make map but i’ve had 5 glases of wine and i don’t think you wanna see what that map woudl ook like right now HAHAHA

  55. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

    The next post will be in the early hours after the wine wears off. I don’t even like wine. Oh well.

  57. Happy New Year everyone!!! I will be making my bold weather predictions for 2018 later today. I can’t wait to hear all of yours and of course what TK’s weather predictions are for 2018.

  59. Waiting for the Sutton cannon at midnight was a tad chilly.

    However, one of our selectmen is at south of the border NC/SC and it is 33 degrees …35 in Charleston

  60. Happy New Year everyone!

    0z CMC and UKMET are sizable hits for the Thursday storm though they continue to do it with the surface low pressure center well off shore. 10-20” on the CMC and more like 6-12” on the UKMET.

    0z GFS and it’s ensembles are still well off shore and sideswipe is with a lighter 1-3” snowfall.

    0z Euro running now…

  61. Hmmm…does the wine incite TK to pull the trigger on forecasting a more impactful snowfall for Thursday????

  63. FYI. weather models show from lowest MB.
    EURO came closer i believe
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018010100/ecmwf_mslpa_eus_5.png
    Canadian https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018010100/gem_mslpa_eus_16.png
    GFS : furthest west
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018010100/gfs_mslpa_eus_17.png
    UKMET: Can’t tell with the access I have.
    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif
    Here is my first 2018 forecast. No idea really what to expect from Wednesday through Friday.
    https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/2018/01/01/cold-continues/

    1. If your east of I95, you do not want it to close or rain gets invovled with that strong easterly/northeast proponent

Comments are closed.