Sunday Forecast

40 Comments

11:22AM

STORM SUMMARY
I would love to say the forecast for the storm worked out well, and I suppose it did, in general. But there was a big miss, and that was north central MA and southern NH which got in on the heaviest of the snow that I actually thought would have fallen further south. The expansion of the precipitation area was greater than I expected, and some hard-to-see banding took place in those areas mentioned above. Looking back, a forecast of 4-8 inches would have been better for a large portion of the region, with 1-4 inches for the South Coast region with mixing/rain involved. All in all, not too bad, but I don’t like to dwell on my performance other than learning from the mistakes, and I have taken some notes for future reference in this regard.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
As promised, the snow that did fall will not be hanging around and is already in the process of melting. Not that it’s super warm today, only into the 40s, but that higher February sun angle does a number on the snow this time of year that hasn’t had a chance to go through a melt/freeze process. And we’re only going to see a little bit of that as we drop below freezing tonight, but tomorrow, despite losing the sunshine to an approaching warm front which eventually brings some rain, the temperature will be climbing far above freezing accelerating and nearly completing the melting process. And whatever should survive tomorrow will certainly be eradicated Tuesday as we see an even bigger temperature spike, which will peak on Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds along the East Coast and a cold front hangs back to the north. This front will arrive by early Thursday and high pressure behind it will send a much cooler air mass into the region, ending the spring preview. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-23 interior, 24-29 coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 immediate South Coast ranging to 60-67 interior areas with a small 52-60 area in between. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s to around 50. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s immediate South Coast, middle 50s to lower 60s just away from the coast, middle 60s to lower 70s interior.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a period of rain morning-midday which may end as a mix. Temperatures fall through 50s and 40s to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Hard to time precipitation threats in what will be an active pattern but looking at the most likely days for them being during the February 24-25 weekend, and February 27. The first may start with freezing or frozen precipitation but will likely end up mainly rain. The second can be any type of precipitation and confidence is too low to be sure this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Evolution of the pattern is to below normal temperatures and will have to watch for some additional storminess. Leaning toward a blocking pattern.

40 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Following up on Winter Storm Warning Discussion.

    Re-post

    JpDave says:
    February 18, 2018 at 11:24 AM
    Winter Storm Warning Criteria from Boston NWS

    Winter Storm WarningCollapse
    When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours

    More than one predominant hazard
    Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie. heavy snow and blowing snow (below blizzard conditions), snow and ice, snow and sleet, sleet and ice, or snow, sleet and ice} meeting or exceeding warning criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements.
    Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, or Sleet
    6 inches averaged over a forecast zone in a 12 hour period
    (except 7 inches in Berkshire and Litchfield Counties).
    8 inches averaged over a CT, MA, RI forecast zone in a 24 hour period
    (except 9 inches in Berkshire and Litchfield Counties).

    AND TK, I agree, not easy decision when dealing with the general public. I understand that as well.

  3. Thanks TK! Agree on the one miss area for this storm, I didn’t even see until a couple hours ago how much fell north of the city and into central New England as well. Still a good forecast for most areas, but there’s almost always a surprise, and that was it.

    The 6z GFS ensemble long range upper air pattern was a thing of beauty. Every run’s a little different of course, but there is real potential on the table going into March.

    First up though… record breaking heat. It peaks Wednesday, but we remain above average right into next weekend. This warmth has been very well telegraphed.

    1. The one thing about that March pattern is the snow might all fall south of New England, at least most of it. Have to see how the orientation and magnitude of blocking ends up.

      1. I have seen that before. I recall a monster snow storm that
        hit the mid-atlantic hard, especially VA one March

  4. Since we got 7.5 inches in North Reading in less than 12 hours, looks like it made sense when the NWS expanded the winter storm warning area last night…Great job as usual, TK. I always appreciate a miss to the upside.. 🙂

  6. Today’s a good example of how fresh snow melts faster than old snow, especially this time of year. It’s not like it’s 55 outside, just getting up to 40 in Wrentham, but combined with the higher Sun angle, the snow is vanishing before my eyes. Most will be gone by sunset.

    1. Snow crystals, surrounded by air, versus partly melted/refrozen granular snow and packed ice. Huge difference.

  7. That would be very interesting if the Mid-Atlantic and south gets clobbered storm after storm after storm with anomolous late season snow while we stay bare. They have enough issues handling snow during the core winter months.

    Richmond VA had 14″ of snow and schools there were shut down an entire week.

    1. I always thought that they should separate terrain for snow boarders and down hill skiers. They should NOT share the same terrain, but who would ever listen to me????

      1. I agree. I have no issue with boarders, but they should have their own section as should the skiers. I think all of the places can handle this.

        1. Totally agree. As a former skiier, I’d even give up some trails for the snow boarders just to keep them off
          the other ski trails. Plus, the could easily cut some new trails for boarders.

    2. I have really good friends that are snowboarders, I feel like there should be a few trails on each MTN that is designated for just snowboarders and just skiers with the rest being mixed. I also feel like snowboards should have something so they don’t scrape the hell out of the snow. I have been to MTNs that do not allow snowboarders, they maintain their snow conditions throughout the day. Just wonderful conditions.

  11. Just a little hint for model watchers…

    Don’t take deterministic day-to-day solutions too seriously for the next several days, and this goes for ALL models (GFS, GEM, ECMWF, CFS). A large-scale shift will be taking place and they won’t do well with timing of features.

      1. Somebody will go over 70 Wed, per my forecast above. 🙂

        I’d have left it out if I didn’t think it would happen. My question about the timing of the front is answered. Not soon enough to cut off the threat of that magnitude of warmth over the interior.

  12. Just for fun, Daytona 500 top 5 picks…

    78 – Martin Truex Jr.
    88 – Alex Bowman
    11 – Denny Hamlin
    00 – Jeffrey Earnhardt
    7 – Danica Patrick (in her final race)

    1. I normally easily forgive a bad game when overall they have been awesome, but they were pathetic against a so-so team, and they have been money on the road. We’ll see what happens Monday in Calgary and Tuesday in Edmonton.

        1. Oh I’ll let it go. It was just a bad performance. I wouldn’t mind so much if they lost the game if they at least gave it some effort. That was lacking.

    1. You’re calling February snow in the books with 11 days to go in the month??????

      Boston’s final snow for February won’t be 7.8 inches.

      1. it does not look good thats for sure. I am hoping a snowy pattern forms, I want a bunch of snow so I can ski through March break 😉

        1. One week ago the models had zero snow through the period. How did that work out?

          It’s the same thing. 🙂

  15. I believe Boston has about 3 chances to add to their snow total by at least 0.1 inch between now and the end of the month: February 22, 24, and around February 27.

  16. I’m tempted to dial back the warmth slightly both Tuesday & Wednesday due to the possibility of abundant cloud cover, especially Tuesday.

    The timing of the front Wednesday night looks a little faster to me too, but I don’t think quickly enough to cut the warmth off before the end of the day.

    Will re-evaluate both of these going forward.

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