Monday Forecast

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Drying trend today as high pressure approaches from the west so a fairly cloudy and foggy start for many will end up much brighter. High pressure moves by the region Tuesday with fair weather, continuing through Wednesday as high pressure slips off to the east. The much-talked-about storm system approaches from the west and impacts the region late Thursday into Friday as blocking high pressure develops to the north. Still leaning toward a slightly further south track to the low center but it will be a broad system so still expecting its rain shield to get in, and may end as mix/snow for parts of the region during Friday due to marginally cold air. The biggest concern will still likely be coastal flooding due to a moderate to strong onshore flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Fog and clouds to start, then dissipating fog and increasing sun. Highs 48-55. Wind NW increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light W to Sw.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-52 South Coast, 53-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day or night. Increasing wind. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely, possibly ending a mix/snow, then breaking clouds. Temperatures cool 40s to 30s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. The first system should sink far to the south leaving a gusty northeast to north wind and only a few rain/snow showers on the March 3-4 weekend with more tranquil weather by March 5. The next storm system threatens the region March 6-7.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)
The same pattern remains in place with a storm system nearby to start the period, a break, then another storm system possibly to watch later in the period.

142 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. I continue to have the same thoughts as you with the coming storm. Further south due to the magnitude of the blocking. Less precip, and little if any snow.

    Coastal concerns will persist either way though. Likely some big time waves pounding the beaches with an impressive onshore fetch region. That will act to pile up the water as well, which combined with the high tides, will likely yield some coastal flooding.

  2. Morning again.

    I, for one, am enjoying watching the evolution of this impending storm system.

    Last night, for the very first time, I thought that Pamela Gardner did a decent job
    with the presentation and the forecast, particularly discussing the possible upcoming storm. Someone has been mentoring her for sure. (TK do you have anything to do with this?) πŸ˜€

    1. I actually think she’s a pretty decent meteorologist, but her on-screen presentations have a lot to be desired. Her speech is halted, she seems to exude a lack of self-confidence, and that often makes one question her authority. It makes me sad, because it’s obvious that she enjoys the science. Her 11:00 broadcast indeed was a little better, and I think it’s because she had quite a bit to say about the impending storm. I notice when she’s talking about something she’s excited about, she excels.

      1. I am happy that I am not the only one who noticed.
        Every Sunday night I have been screaming at the TV. Not
        last night. πŸ˜€

  3. Thanks for the post TK.

    I liked this comment I read on the American wx forums:

    “Same old story as with any system…One or two runs go wild and show a Monster, and many go bazerk with what it might be..jackpot zones are called five days out lol and so on and so on.

    Then the models go through their same old thing where they weaken the output to nothing all that great, and it brings many back down to earth and then the process repeats again as the models sample the energy and the real story begins to emerge.”

    1. I absolutely love this stuff. Thank you for the time to put this together for us.
      It is greatly appreciated.

        1. Nice and thanks. So this is the NBC-10 In-house
          proprietary model??

          How the bleep did they get their hands on that?

          NO ONE on staff would have had the time and likely
          not the expertise to pull this off. Did they purchase one
          from say:

          WSI (Weather Services International)
          400 Minuteman Road
          Andover, MA 01810

          Or make some sort of arrangement with them to use
          their RPM model (Rapid Precision Mesoscale model)???

          Inquiring minds would like to know.

  4. Trying to digest the 12Z NAM. It is not quite in range, but at 84 hours, clearly
    shows the beginnings of a transfer of energy to the coast somewhere. The question is,
    exactly where and where does it go from there. The usual caveats apply to the NAM,
    one being it’s “wheel house” is 48 hours in. None-the-less, it is interesting to look at
    it as another piece to the puzzle.

    Here is how it looks at 84 hours or Thursday evening at 7PM:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018022612/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    Here is the 500mb chart, CLEARLY depicting the Greenland block:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018022612/nam_z500_vort_namer_29.png

    And here is your 250 mb chart

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018022612/nam_uv250_namer_29.png

    I am no expert in these matters, but it looks as though (at least with this run), that
    the block will allow some decent impacts of this storm to make it into at least
    SNE.

    Curiously awaiting the rest of the 12Z runs.

    1. Great info as always JpDave ~~

      2 things …. look in the radar simulation part, how much the precip stretches out eastward into the ocean …

      similarly, the kinks in the isobars south of New England seem to be pointed eastward.

      1. I understand what you are saying. My comment is:
        Even the Euro that showed major impacts here, had that
        Eastward motion. We still need to wait.

      1. Not necessarily for here. Too early to tell. We’ll have to wait and see. IF it were to snow, very likely rain for at least the beginning
        (if it gets here). Could be rain the whole way. Could remain
        mostly dry. We’ll have to wait. πŸ˜€

  5. PG is a good forecaster. I’m not sure what’s up on-air.

    We chatted at the SNEWxConf. Very nice person. πŸ™‚

    1. I am sure she is a very nice person. Her on-air presentation needs or needed
      some work. Apparently, some one has been coaching her as last night’s
      presentation was clearly much improved. That is nice to see.

      1. She often also has a hard time pronouncing the words “satellite” and “Saturday.” That’s a non-issue though, and I sure hope her presentations continue to improve. I was thinking if not, she’d make a great weather producer. When she’s on more scripted shows like the winter presentations, or what’s in store for the summer, she does really well (maybe it’s part of being in an ensemble, where it’s more conversational?), along with the times she does science reporting. I wish I’d see that version of herself when she reports the weather!

  6. I think this late week storm is going to be great proof of how skilled human meteorologists can add significant value to computer guidance. Look at the 12z GFS continue the southward trend. This trend should’ve been obvious given the magnitude of the high latitude blocking, but for days most models have still insisted on a farther north storm.

    Now watch all the other guidance trend back north πŸ˜›

      1. I love oreos dipped in milk. It is, however, not a good mix when I pop one in my mouth and then read this comment πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  7. My daughter, who is now a Dubliner, sent me a link – see below – on what is being called in Ireland a “beast from the east;” essentially a polar vortex. Who said Americans are the only ones prone to hyperbole. It is unusual for Ireland to have a sustained period of freezing temperatures, but it does happen from time to time. Note, their dominant wind (`prevailing’ would be an understatement) is from the west (>90% of the time). West winds usher in the (mostly light) rains, wind, clouds, and periodic glimpses of sun. East wind, on the other hand, is the source of warmth in the summer (not common in Ireland), and cold in winter (not common in Ireland).

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/beast-east-hits-dublin-today-14336627

    1. Well its mostly dry up there this weekend and cold enough at night to make snow so at least its not going to get any worse!

  8. I’m going to venture that today’s 12z runs are not going to be the final call on what actually happens with the late week system. Looking at the 12z GEFS, still many ensemble members north of the mean and some of them quite strong.

    Not saying this is going to come back way north and show the massive hit the Euro did over the weekend but ticks back north for a larger impact wouldnt surprise me.

    I also find it odd that this system seems to be screaming along so progressively now with this massive block in place. What appeared to be a potentially long duration event is now in and out in less than 24 hours.

  9. Pamela is a good Met, just watch her facebook video’s. She is more free form then, so you get to see the real her. I know that some people even though they like doing something get nervous. I like to talk to people and talk science stuff but then when it comes to conferences my legs shake lol. (especially when the dean of your school is there) She also responds rather quickly to any questions.

  10. 12z Euro is weaker, more strung out and further south than 0z, basically following the trend of the other 12z guidance which is no surprise.

    Will be interested to see tonight’s runs and especially tomorrow’s. I’m sure this isnt the last of the adjustments we will be seeing.

  11. In fact, 12z Euro beings about 0.2-0.3″ of rain to the South coast and virtually nothing from the Pike northward including Boston metro. It’s basically a complete swing and a miss.

  12. Some reasons we likely see this shift back north per one of the mets on AmericanWx:

    1. Decaying SE ridge which makes it harder for this storm to dig straight ESE
    2. Ensemble spread mostly to the northwest of the operations runs
    3. Western trough which will tend to want to “pump things up”
    4. We regularly see these vigorous shortwaves come north once better sampled

    We’ll see…

    1. Nothing wrong with looking there, but as JMA said the other day, beware confirmation bias. This sounds like someone whose forecast is going down the drain. A decaying ridge is much easier to displace than a building one. The ensembles are trending southeastward just as the op runs are. That third point makes literally no sense, if anything the opposite is true. It’ll β€œpump up” a central US ridge and shift any eastern US trough further east. Finally, while there could be small errors due to sampling, it’s likely not as big a deal as usual in this case given the expected overall size/power of this storm. Not trying to knock your post at all, I like seeing what others are thinking, I just don’t agree with that person’s assessment at this time.

      1. Ye ands you could very well be correct. I am not implying by any means that I agree with what he is saying. Just posting an alternative viewpoint from another met.

        I think what he is trying to say about the SE ridge is that it is still there and it is going to provide some resistance to allowing the storm to freely slide southeast, much like the Greenland block is going to prevent it from coming too far northeast.

        I personally think the 12z Euro yesterday was too far north and today it is too far south. I think it comes back north far enough for at least a moderate wind/precip impact on SNE.

  13. 12z Euro does have a big coastal storm middle of next week though that clocks us pretty good with heavy rain, wind and snow. Pops the coastal off the Carolina coast as opposed to over Boston as it did on the 0z run. Strengthens it and rides it slowly up the coast, hitting the benchmark and then drifting back south courtesy of the block. Would be a rain to snow scenario for most verbatim.

  14. At this early stage, I prefer the 12z ECMWF handling of the system mid next week compared to the GFS. That could be one to watch.

    1. Yes, agree. Probably another one with p-type issues on the coast but it does look to have more cold air to work with for at least an interior paste job. Potential is there.

  15. 12z Euro EPS for Friday:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://i.imgur.com/cPcZrIY.jpg&key=016606c17ae63211419f854dd4c94252faae224cada09e48ce5f228771965667

    The individual ensemble members are still all over the place. No question there is still room for future adjustments with the operational runs, both in strength and position of the storm. Note the members farther NW are strongest and farthest SE the weakest.

  16. I rather have this storm miss us than give us more freakin rain. I rather it be cold and dry than warm and wet. Unless of course we get good snows for the interior southern New England up into ski country then go ahead dump snow and hit us as hard as you want mother nature.

        1. You have 2 snow opportunities between March 6 and 15. Don’t read too much into this very general statement beyond the words I put here. πŸ™‚

              1. I was kidding but why not. 12-13 is a familiar snow date. I can think of two…..one your average foot-ish and another rather significant

                1. If I had to lean toward one of those being snow it would be the March 7-8 one. But long way off. πŸ™‚

  17. If this storm is a direct hit it is highly unlikely it would be a snow event anywhere but the highest elevations.

    That said, I’m not any closer to forecasting a direct hit than I have been at any point before this. If anything, I’m further away.

    1. I really don’t think snow (beyond mix northern edge at end) is going to be an issue with this one. There just isn’t enough cold and the atmosphere doesn’t line up correctly over the region.

      The threat after this one carries a much higher chance of frozen stuff.

  18. The 18z ICON is so different from the 2 runs preceding it that I laughed out loud when I saw it. Same thing happened yesterday. 18z.

    1. I LOVE the 18Z. It adds a certain flavor and sometimes humor to the day. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it makes other runs look sane.

  19. TK, I’m still counting on that snowstorm you alluded to, slated to happen April 21st according to the ever so accurate Accuweather 90 day forecast.

  20. **********ALERT!! ALERT!! ALERT!!!***********

    ***This message is intended for residents in New England living between Caribou, ME and Stamford, CT*****

    *** 18Z ICON MODEL COMES NORTH with 972mb LOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE 70/40 BENCHMARK****

    *** Pounds New England for 48 hours with heavy rain, snow, and wind****

    *****STAY TUNED for further updates on this massive nor’easter turned no’easter turned nor’easter again. Next ICON run at 00Z***************

      1. Oops. Well….DT’s posts are usually full of errors. Perhaps I should have added a few misspellings and swear words in there as well!

        1. Actually DT has dyslexia. I’m not making fun of it, but it reminded me of it because he’s done things like that, people have made fun of him, and he’s mentioned that this is the reason. It’s gotta be tough sometimes especially if you have to communicate so much info.

          1. OK, and I’m sure the dyslexia is also the reason he spontaneously blurts out vulgarities and demeaning comments to everyone who doesn’t agree with him!

            1. I am not familiar with that as a symptom but would suspect it may be caused by frustration because folks are critical.

              1. I was being sarcastic Vicki. I have great sympathy for anyone suffering from that disease but DT is just not a nice person – foul mouthed and critical of anyone who disagrees with him.

            1. Tom…really…possibly the most understanding person on whw. I can safely say, you have nothing to feel badly about….ever.

          2. My brother was dyslexic. My mom spent years trying to get it addressed in schools. It is probably the least addressed problems our youth face

  21. Don’t knock the ICON TK – I know you are looking at it after its exemplary performance last week πŸ™‚

  22. Tk thought on Saturday morning I have a debris job & also need to disassemble an old swing & slide set , what do you think . I already put an FYI to the customer this morning . My estimates in the rain was worth it as I was awarded two jobs today one right on the water in Brantrock.

    1. The hurricane force winds should take care of that debris for you. Can you still charge him if it just blows away?

  23. Hmmm….18z GEFS with a pretty big jump NW. Vast majority of the members are N or NW of the operational, some right over SNE and some quite potent:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2018_02/gefs_slp_lows_east_16.png.29dabebf99dae589cc62da2238073ae4.png

    Compare with the 12z GEFS. Note that all of the weaker members southeast of the mean center are now gone:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2018_02/gefs_slp_lows_east_17.png.afcad9ff988c0b7666752d51042cf815.png

  24. Don’t make fun of DT for spelling and miscommunication. I know most that were commenting was not meaning any disrespect as I know your all better than that. He has a disability. I do not have what he has but have something similar with a speech and processing disability. I have mainly over come it but sometimes have hard time putting what I want to say to paper its frustrating as all hell. Especially with long scientific words lol.

    1. Matt. You do great….any problems would be on the side of the reader. You make me proud to be your friend.

    2. I don’t think any of us were making fun of his disability. I didn’t even realize he had one until TK pointed it out. I would venture to guess he brings on a lot of comments he gets more for the alarmist hype inducing posts he makes as well as the condescending tone he takes towards those who have a different viewpoint than him. Sorry if I offended you or anyone. And I give you a lot of credit for overcoming your disability. I will say that I have noticed in following your posts here through the years that your writing has improved markedly.

  25. DT has actually made light of his own condition a few times. He handles it well.

    He doesn’t handle relating to his followers very well, especially those that disagree with him.

    I repeat a statement he made to me once (I have before) when I told him why I thought one model was handling a situation better than another: “And you, sir, are a complete moron.” … After the event, his forecast tanked, and mine was right. Oh well. I never said another word to him.

      1. This storm’s got my attention and may end up surprising some people if it fully phases and bombs out close to the coast. There is enough ensemble support that makes this scenario a possible solution. A bombing low tucked close to the coast will manufacture enough of its cold air to flip many from rain to heavy wet snow, and not just higher elevations.

    1. It is basically stalled and doing a loop back south at hour 84 and just getting started with the heavy snow.

      Mighty interesting!

      0z ICON up next….

    2. In spite of this, I still will side, for now, towards a more southerly solution based on past tendencies of blocking tending to suppress storm track.

  26. 00z NAM looks like it may be showing a strong convective feedback signal. The run may very well be contaminated after hour 48.

  27. I was reading that even though outside it’s wheel house the NAM and other high res models tend to do much better with these types of systems.

  28. I told y’all this will wind up being a broom brusher system at most. Three inches for Boston if it gets anything. Don’t buy the hype, but a push broom! lmao

    It is fun watching some forecasters go one way then have to dial it back only to ramp up again for the inevitable dial back.

        1. If you look at verification, you’ll find the GFS and even the GEM at this range are better than both the NAM and the ICON. Every meteorologist will tell you this. So while it’s not impossible for the scenario depicted on the 00z NAM to play out, putting too much weight on the outcome of that run as well as its fellow model the ICON is very risky. Both of them show signs of CF on this run. I did not see the same issue on both the GFS and the GEM.

          1. Oh I know, but that same model was completely lost with the storm last week. And most of its ensembles at 18z were NW which to me is a red flag. We’ll see. I certainly don’t envy you having to forecast something like this. 3 days out and the ensemble spread is still large with solutions ranging from a complete miss to a direct, high impact hit. Not an easy forecast.

  29. Not even sure what the 0z GFS just did. Primary low looked good near Erie, PA but then it pops the secondary low wait out east into the Atlantic. Phases too late and too far off shore.

    1. The 00z GFS is showing the solution that I have described as what I feel is the most likely outcome. It’s the result of a very strong block.

      The 00z GEM shows the same thing.

        1. This fits in more closely with my discussion. This thing is not going to move northeast with the type of blocking that is likely to set up.

  30. 0z Euro is also disjointed and shunts the energy southeast, similar to the GFS.

    So, 0z Euro/GFS/CMC operational runs all have a fairly low impact event Friday.

  31. I am totally confused.
    euro and cmc suppressed
    gfs, nam and icon bring it north with various snow totals.

    This is getting interestinger abd interedtering

    1. And nothing different from what we typically see. So many models, we’re going to have more and more spread closer than ever to events these days…

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