Wednesday Forecast

207 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
High pressure slips off to the east of New England today and a cold front approaches from the north. It will still be quite a nice day to end the month of February. Then it’s time for the proverbial March Lion as we continue to watch the evolution of a blocking pattern and a major storm system. The adjustment today is for a slightly more northward journey of the developing low pressure system which will intensify fairly rapidly and do a loop just south of New England. The main concern continues to be a strong onshore wind flow and coastal flooding. Will get far more detailed on tomorrow’s blog than today, still keeping it on a broadly described scale for this update. The time frame is generally the same although a further south evolution of the storm would have meant a quicker exit of the precipitation portion, so delaying that a bit with a farther north position likely being realized. Still not overly worried about snow as it will be a fairly mild atmosphere, but leaving the opportunity for some mix/change to snow over interior higher elevations before the system pulls out as it will be pulling colder air into itself. I don’t think we’ll see quite the right set-up for a dynamic cooling event to create snow over much of the region. This may be confined to the hills/mountains of western and southwestern New England, outside of my general WHW forecast area. Still looking for a windy/chilly weekend which may start with rain/mix/snow if the low’s loop is broad enough, otherwise it turns out mostly dry during the weekend.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 South Coast, 55-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or mixed rain/snow showers during the day. Rain arriving southwest to northeast at night. Highs 43-50 then slightly. Wind light W shifting to N, then NE to E at night increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Stormy with rain, probably heavy at times. Rain may mix with or turn to snow interior higher elevations at night. Strong east wind and coastal flooding likely. Temperatures steady 38-45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy wit a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then variably cloudy with a passing rain/snow shower possible. Temperatures generally steady upper 30s to lower 40s. Windy.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. Dry March 5 and still breezy/cool. The next window of opportunity for storminess is from later March 6 to early March 9. This system may have more cold air to work with therefore presents a better chance of mix/snow over a larger portion of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
The same pattern remains in place. Yet another storm threat favoring the middle of the period.

207 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK…been confusing to follow this. I know you were in on the south solution is this no longer true? Is this a hit now?

    1. I am having house framing done and ever since they started we’ve been getting rain and snow events ha. Was hoping for a miss this time…

    2. It was a hit even with the southern track. This just puts the axis of heavier rainfall into the region and firms up the wind as well. Also makes the duration several hours longer.

  4. glad these storm threats as they call them are happening tuesday nites into weds cause im off weds and finish at 3 on tuesday like always. same thing when they happen after 3 on friday cause of being off weekends 🙂

  6. TK – Does NYC actually have a better chance of snow with this blocking setup than Boston? I saw a futurecast radar that has snow coming down the Hudson River Valley right into the city as the storm slowly pulls away while we stay rain.

    1. Not this tine.

      This should really be focused on as a wind event but it seems many are still focused on snow. That will be an impact somewhere but not most places.

      2. I agree Tk . Around these parts wind , rain & possibly Major high tide concerns with 3 cycles to worry about that could produce damage .

  9. Thank you TK.

    I mentioned the difficulty in getting a handle on this storm to my youngest. She has a theory….means we get very little snow. As always, our concern is with the coast.

  10. Any idea the rain amounts yet? Channel 7 has Woburn with 4-5″ of rain…didn’t expect that much (if it’s even true). My poor framing…ha.

  11. The 12z NAM looks more realistic to me compared to its previous 2 runs ….

    Heavy precip really doesn’t get into Maine. I can see a sudden precip cutoff line in northeast Mass, not Maine …. but it’s closer to this idea.

    The low doesn’t come so far north on this run to have a big dry slot across southern New England.

    The effects of the blocking are much more pronounced in this run. I like the loop westward and then the big push southeastward.

    I think the NAM needs another 25 to 50 mile adjustment further south and that would be my guess for what ultimately happens.

      1. 3 to 4 inches in a lot of eastern mass, however, a tremendously sharp cutoff at the mass/nh and mass/me border.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if that sharp cutoff ends up being a bit further south and southwest.

        Maybe Albany to Worcester to Fall River to western Nantucket gets the most precip with lesser amounts as you work north and northeast ????

  21. The wind on this system is looks really really serious.
    This has shown up on the NAMS, GFS and CMC.

    Waiting on ye ole Euro.

    1. So the empty syrafoam cooler that some frozen food arrived in yesterday should be moved from the chair on my deck?

        1. Good point — one of my neighbors might have a use for it.

          Of course, if we lose power (fingers crossed), I’ll have a use for it.

    1. At least the focus is shifting to what’s important, threatwise, about this. Can’t look at this thing as a mid winter snowstorm threat. That’s not what is about to transpire.

      1. Do you think – or have a feeling – this may slide south a bit more and lessen the rain amounts where we are, or do you think it’s pretty set?

  23. When the news anchor’s first words of the tv newscast are “the new models are coming in….” we have a serious priority and delivery of news issue.

    2. In the past when you heard new models were coming in you were expecting Bob Barker to have a fresh crop of new prize presenters. lol

    2. Maybe stretching with the imagery, however, In this case it is probably
      completely justified. For once I do not believe they are over-hyping a threat.

  25. 12Z Euro is in. Looks like a solid hit with nearly 3 inches of qpf almost to Boston.
    Euro shows snow from 7PM Friday onward.

    Euro is in a favorable position. Have a look

    https://imgur.com/a/K4vJ9

    Euro shows 850mb temps crashing to -4 to -8 C sometime during the day Friday
    to become this at 7PM:

    https://imgur.com/a/W63ZT

    So, once again I share my concern that No One else seems to share. What if
    the 850mb temps fall earlier? What if the intense precip causes dynamical cooling
    earlier than expected. A decent snowfall is not totally and completely off of the table.
    Am I stretching and looking? You bet I am. So, shoot me then.

    2. I think the snow concern in this system is lower on the potential hazard list then the flooding concern (salt and fresh water) and maybe that is why it is getting less attention.

      With 11.5 foot tides Friday, Friday night and Saturday, its a near guarantee the coast is going to have problems.

      Its less guaranteed snow will be as impactful.

      But, its still a good think to be watching the snow possibilities too !!

      1. Oh I certainly agree that coastal flooding is virtually a certainty
        and deserves ALL of the headlines. But, in all honestly, I am
        concerned about a change over to snow and IF it happens, it could be like cement and with those winds, in addition to all
        of the coastal concerns, we could have massive power outages.

        NOT saying it is about to happen, merely saying it is something
        worth monitoring. Those Euro 850mb temperatures really jumped out at me.

        1. Absolutely.

          That -4 to -8C contour must match up with where the heavy precip is going to be. I say that because to its north and west, the 850 mb temp contour is milder, at 0 to -4C.

          It does make some sense that where the coldest air from the upper feature overlaps any heavy precip is where the snow threat is greatest.

          And that is at 60 hrs from 12z which should be Friday evening at 7 or 8pm, which would be darkness.

          Now, the only question is if that’s where the heavy precip gets to ………

          1. I think the chances of the column cooling earlier than this time period is low because, earlier in the storm, the upper feature that will provide the cold air aloft won’t be fully developed or as close by and the surface winds will be more easterly, as opposed to north-northeasterly by later Friday evening.

              1. another excellent map !!

                Wow, that is a big fetch of ocean east of us covered by 50 mph winds. I can see why the NWS mentioned wave height possibilities in their discussion this morning.

    1. Funny it almost seems like following that path it would miss us entirely north of Boston. I know it won’t just looks like it.

    1. 3 to 4 ft …. wow ….

      If the 4 ft gets realized, that would be a tide height of 15.6 ft Friday and 15.5 ft Saturday.

      Hopefully, the max surge lines up with the evening low tides, where there will be plenty of room to handle the 4 ft.

      I have my Wednesday class coming up. Look forward to checking in later, while watching the Celtics. 🙂

      2. Tom, or anyone, do you recall the tide height on January 4?

        If there is any consolation – and I suspect this is not a great one – the chunks of ice that the waves threw inland won’t be there.

          1. Thank you, Tom.

            And that was for one tide??? This would be for more?

            Work is a bit crazy so I apologize if this is something I should know. Been popping in and out and tend to miss some.

            1. Yes, 3 cycles with Friday am and Sat noon be of most concern. Friday night is about a foot lower b7 would still flood with a 3 ft surge.

        1. Is it the Euro itself? OR the sites that use the qpf
          from the Euro and apply their own algorithms to produce
          the snow map?

          OR is it the qpf from the Euro that’s messed up?

          1. All I know is every version of the Euro’s snow map that I have seen is usually pretty much complete BS.

  31. 18z NAM puts me in the jackpot for snow. I see even the EURO wants to give my area some snow. I am ready I got my flashlights and battery powered radio ready.

  32. NOTE: Model snow forecasts assume 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. If we flip to snow in southeastern New England the ratio will be about 5:1.

    1. I think that’s starting to show what you were talking about earlier with the potential for accumulating snows around here earlier than currently modeled.

  37. I am NOT saying that the 3KM NAM is correct, however, for this run anyway, it is delivering on what my concern has been all day. That kind of wet snow (if it materializes) WILL cause some problems given the wind we will have.

      1. Narrow those for better resolution and then cut them in half and you may have a better representation of how I think the snow part of it plays out.

          1. Not really. The thing 24 hours ago was that there was a lot of uncertainty. It’s still not even clear.

  39. I agree with you. Multiple hazards with this storm. Coastal Flooding, damaging winds, power outages, and heavy wet snow.

  40. Unfortunately a very busy day for me so haven’t been able to look at as much as I want, but it certainly looks like the northern camp has won out on this storm. Not what I was expecting. While I agree with TK that there is room for a shift south, it looks like this will be an anomalous, very high impact storm. The flip to snow is probably the hardest part of the forecast, but also the least important. Will certainly be elevation dependent and very wet snow.

    Still not enough emphasis being placed on the coastal issues. I expect pockets of major coastal flooding as well as areas of severe erosion. This would’ve been true even in a further south scenario. Also, wind damage is a concern, especially given a trend stronger in the low. Not so worried about flooding (very lucky we don’t have a snow pack), but the typically prone areas could have some issues. An active few days ahead.

    1. I don’t have any issue with what anyone here does, but I have been concerned with the obsession of the snow question on a lot of media even today. Yes, address it, but it should be quick because of the remaining uncertainty. Focus on what we know is most likely, and also far more dangerous in most cases.

  41. Blizzard conditions likely in Ireland tomorrow as storm Emma traverses the country. Some parts of the country may see 40cm (~14 inches) of snow. Dublin has not seen accumulating snow in many years, and the most recent snowstorm hit in 1982. There are very few plows. Most people do not have shovels. Apparently, everything will be closed tomorrow.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/storm-emma-people-urged-to-stay-indoors-for-blizzard-1.3410652

    1. Just watched a soccer match in snow from London’s Wembley Stadium. London is under a “red alert”, apparently the highest weather alert there.

  42. Keep 3 things in mind…

    Temps aloft.
    Precip intensity.
    Elevation.

    In addition, by the time that cooling takes place for a flip, even if it is cold enough to do it in lower elevations, the storm will be screaming away to the southeast taking the heaviest precipitation with it. We were under heavy precipitation after the dynamic cooling process for hours longer in the events you may be thinking of.

    This is not going to turn into March 31 / April 1 1997. Different setup.

  43. Busy day – was down in Stamford for meetings this PM. Beautiful drive down and back and car temp was near 60 most of the way.

    Just read the NWS Taunton AFD and they are not sold on much snow anywhere in SNE from this storm…

    Snow…

    Ageostropic flow turns from the northwest Thursday night and
    from the west Friday. This may tap some cold air over Ontario,
    but it does not look enough to overcome the 80-90 knot low level
    east-northeast jet screaming in from Mass Bay and the Gulf of
    Maine. Some snow is possible over the Berkshires, especially as
    the storm starts moving off to the east. Rain and snow may mix
    Friday and Friday night. We will look at an inch or two of
    snow accumulation, mainly in the higher elevations of the
    Berkshire east slopes.

  46. The euro access I have shows .8 to 1 inch across interior southern locations with temp profile I would say light to patchy moderate snowfall

  47. The Tides/Coastal Flooding section of the NWS Boston discussion this evening is a must read. One of the most strongly worded discussions I’ve seen from this office. I would bet MIC Bob Thompson had a big hand in that, as coastal flood events are his wheelhouse.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    There are a couple of mitigating factors which will prevent an even worse outcome. For one, the worst of the storm looks to be near low tide Friday evening. It’s a long duration event so several tide cycles will be impacted, but the current consensus timing would be the best possible scenario for that. In addition, the Friday night high tide, which will be the one most impacted, is several tenths of a foot lower, astronomically, than the high tides surrounding it. These factors may help prevent an extreme/potentially unprecedented event, but I would still look for flooding on par with the 1/4 storm, maybe worse in spots, along with considerably worse beach erosion.

    1. Oh my. Thank you for sharing this. Tom, are you on the brant rock and Humarock FB page? If so, do you think it would be wise to share this link?

  48. Looking at some of the tv mets snowfall maps is enough to tempt a rush on bread & milk tomorrow. It wouldn’t surprise me if some grocery stores become unusually crowded. NWS not all that concerned for the Berkshires, let alone the coastal plain, at least in terms of snow.

    1. It will be very little snow here at the tail end that may have trouble sticking . Snow is definitely not a factor on this one . Heavy rain and this high wind is not good. I’m very concerned about our coastal areas .

      2. Oh I agree with you. I just bet some of the viewing public will be rushing to stores based on those snow maps. 😉

  49. I have to wonder about school in some coastal locations for Friday.

    For instance, FBMS is Marshfield’s shelter. High tide is 11:45am Friday. Plus, how are they going to get all the kids, who live by the ocean, home on Friday ? Same for scituate, Plymouth, etc …..

    1. I think you have an excellent point Tom but unfortunately not sure if they’ll see IT that way if they do it’s smart planning .

      1. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if schools in coastal communities started calling Friday off as early as tomorrow evening. I wonder if there would be a “domino effect” as other districts followed suit and called off classes, playing it safe than sorry. The winds will be really howling at Friday dismissal. There were a lot of districts out during the October 29-30 storm.

  50. Tom Humarock has a page and you are right…I think it’s called the Brant rock weather page. I’m tempted to share WxWatchers link on both. Although I’m active on the Hum page, not so much on Brant rock

  51. Would love this storm more if we got snow out of it, particularly ski areas like Wachusetts and areas up into NH and VT. Just does not look good.

    2. Gotta love him for sticking his neck out with some reasoning. Makes a good case and we’ll see. This is a classic hero to zero on the line. This type of storm always gets me amped up because they often produce snow out here in the hills. All hinges on of and how quickly there’s a flip.

      1. You WILL get your snow. The question is will there be any left
        for the City. To me, that is the bigger question.

        I am getting a bad feeling about this storm. I have already shared my concern twice earlier today.

        Maybe will have more to say after the 0Z runs.

        I need to view that Bernie video now.

  53. Finally after much study and countless hours pouring over models, I have solved the weather conundrum for the next 3 days!!

    I will update you all on exactly what will happen at noon on Saturday.

    1. Well I know someone around these parts who would disagree with that.
      Despite what was said there, there was indeed a colder High to the North
      draining in colder air or at least cold enough air. IT was NOT just a dynamically cooled event.

  55. 0Z NAM is looking mighty interesting to me.

    500 MB is going almost Due S to N while 200 MB is almost flat W to E. This should slide
    the coastal NE. “Should” be in good position, but then I could be full of crap.
    We shall see shortly. This run is coming out excrutiatingly slow.

  56. By 12Z 850 mb 0 line is West to the Berks. That’s not good for snow, in fact it’s impossible. Waiting to see if it collapses to the East in a hurry.

    1. For some. I want that 850 mb to CRASH to the Coast in a big hurry. I am wondering if the NAM pushed it too far West????

  58. Hr 36 …. 12z Friday, 8am ….. about 3 and 1/2 hrs before high tide. Strong flow nearly perpendicularly into eastern mass coastline and wind ramping up with each passing hour. That’s going to be a scary situation Friday late morning at the coast.

  61. Seems to me the critical time for the upper feature to capture the surface low and have it stall or do a mini loop is late morning thru late afternoon Friday.

    That seems like the absolute crush time for the coast with only a very slow ramp down after that and I mean slow.

  63. Pounding the Berks, all of western CT, Hudson valley, and even NYC metro/NJ with heavy snow by Friday PM/night.

  66. NWS might want to reconsider their region wide 0-1” snowmap. Even if they only weigh the NAM 25%, they are too low.

    2. Still wondering IF NAM is TOO SLOW with collapse of 850 MB temps?
      I dunno. Will be watching Carefully. Very carefully. IMPRESSIVE looking Storm to say the least.

  71. FROM NCEP, GFS model will be running late tonight…..

    The 00Z GFS model analysis encountered a problem. Support
    personnel are investigating the issue and we are attempting to
    rerun the analysis now. GFS delays would be up to 30 minutes
    should this rerun successfully complete

  73. Eric has my area 6-12 but it seems more Friday ok into night.

    Schools will be a tough call…work also, it seems…..as..of…now

  74. So in all the excitement of many folks trying to find a huge snowstorm here, has anyone actually noticed that if you look at the NAM’s forecast you will see it is showing, for example, over 1 foot of snow accumulation in areas that are still shown as heavy rain at the same time on the p-type maps?

  75. Granted some of these models are always called into question but setting aside the ECMWF for a moment… compare the most recent run snowfall forecast maps for NAM, GEM, ICON, GFS, CFS, RGEM, HRDPS. What stands out? They are all somewhat identical and some slightly more aggressive than the NWS official forecast as of last update, EXCEPT for the NAM which stands out like a thumb that was whacked by a sledge hammer. However the tendency is for people (on TV and otherwise) who seem to want to turn this into a snowstorm more than a “winter storm” with wide ranging impacts seem to be giving the NAM a ton of weight. Now in the end, this model may very well end up having a better idea than the others. We’ve seen it before. But I think the masses in general are suffering confirmation bias on this one.

    One thing I will say is thank goodness we still have a full day to try to figure this out. But I think I have it just about figured out in my mind. Will hopefully has a blog out in the morning that reflects this.

    1. Tk is it possible that the northshore area gets a foot of snow? I know nobody is forecasting this and highly unlikely but meteorologically speaking is it possible?
      I am hoping for a nice surprise.

      1. Remotely possible, and if it happened it would be one of the biggest meteorological surprises of my life, similar in surprise factor to the snowstorm of December 23 1997.

        I’m not going for it.

  77. One of the heaviest snows I ever witnesses in my life was in December 9 2005. Rain and snow line crashed quickly as the storm intensified rapidly. I remember checking the NWS radar and seeing dark green echoes all over central and eastern mass. Only one model predicted that would happens if I remember correctly. Strong winds and thundersnow also occurred. One thing I never saw again since that day was how large the heavy snow echoes were. It snowed crazy that day

    1. I remember that storm well. I was recovering from a stomach bug and was home from work, which ended up being one of the luckiest and best-timed bugs I ever got. Avoided being out there and got to watch it from my 2nd floor window.

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