Sunday Forecast

150 Comments

8:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
No changes from yesterday’s discussion. Will continue to watch a storm system passing south of the region midweek but still feel it’s a miss here. Can’t let guard down this far in advance, however. Otherwise, it’s cold and dry domination with a northwest flow from Canada.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
Next storm threat comes during the March 24-25 weekend but unsure of details at this point. Otherwise temperatures remain below normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
A couple milder days possible but still a couple weather systems may threaten the region with some precipitation.

150 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good Morning TK and thank you.

    Re-Posts

    Could the CMC ever be correct, for once?

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018031800/096/prateptype.us_ne.png

    Reply
    JpDave says:
    March 18, 2018 at 8:35 AM
    984 mb system at 8PM Wednesday. Interesting. Too bad the CMC is on an island all by itself.

    JpDave says:
    March 18, 2018 at 8:38 AM
    0Z FIM gets closer then GFS and Euro

    https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2018031800/t3/3hap_sfc_f102.png

    10:1 Snow

    https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2018031800/t3/totsn_sfc_f132.png

  4. CMC? Correct? Those terms don’t go together.

    12z suite should correct for the error of moving stuff a bit further north last night.

      1. Are you talkin’ to MEEEEE?!

        Well your comment about CMC prompted it, but otherwise it’s a general statement. 🙂 I haven’t looked at NAM yet because I just got home from my Sunday morning romp around the town with my mom. I suspect the run will keep the precipitation south of New England and hang back a feature in the Appalachians that will then swing more east than northeast and take the double system completely south of the region between late Tuesday and early Friday, then pave the way for a threat next weekend when the flow is different and we get a Pacific system aimed more directly this way (pending the status of blocking).

  5. As predicted by TK, 12Z NAM says see YA, both with initial wave
    and follow-up wave. Onto the 25th/26th.

    1. I have a feeling that thing next weekend may be a bit quicker. What happens with the follow-up remains in question, if there is a follow-up. Very conflicting medium range indications as shown on all models having different solutions.

  6. It’s almost noon. Still 28 degrees with a mid to late September sun angle. That’s a pretty cold airmass.

    1. Dew point is right around 0. I roiling be surprised if we barely make freezing today, if that.

    2. And still there are people that somehow think that when March arrives it’s just automatically spring and warm.

      I am always reminding people that autumn in New England is warmer than spring. Not sure why this doesn’t stick.

      1. I never look for spring weather until later in April. At least until April 20th or so. Backdoor season you know

        And March is a winter month here, unfortunately.
        Everyone knows I hate snow and cold, but winter is what it is.
        I think early spring (now till Mother’s Day basically) is what makes living here difficult, weather wise, for many, even a lot of the natives I know feel that way. I used to think March was the worst month on the calendar. But if you accept it’s a winter month it’s ok. April to a lot of people I know is tough to take, me included. Tired of the cold, wanting some better weather, baseball season starts, but it’s raw, nasty, cold, and can be down right awful a lot of early to mid month or even later. Meanwhile friends and family who live in the rest of the CONUS, for the most part, are at least getting some 60’s here and there with trees starting to bud. Little league baseball starts in 2 weeks. I dread those 5 pm games. Nothing worse than 2 hours sittting there from 5-7 pm with a nasty wind and 42 degrees.

        1. Be grateful you don’t live here in Boston. Warm temps don’t really get going until Memorial Day…maybe. 😉

        2. Lets be honest, consistent nice weather doesn’t start until Memorial Day around here, and even then we have our moments of relapse. Five months of nice weather.

          2. And even on rare occasions even later (recall June/July 2009 – granted the exception not the rule but just shows you what can happen if we keep putting upper lows over the Northeast).

            1. I hope to never witness and relive that horrid summer ever again.

              3 June’s ago it was 40’s and pouring rain on June 1-2

  8. many of the euro ensembles send precip into the cape and islands Thursday of next week as well as the gfs

  9. Today’s cold temps, wind and deep blue sky reminds me a bit of April 5, 1982.

    Old timers and TK know what I mean…and what occurred the days after. 😉

    2. We had a solid rainstorm on Saturday April 3. It poured that night. The next day was a transition to dry/windy/cold, and then an Arctic front went through early Monday April 5 and that was a very windy/cold day, even moreso than today. The next day, POWDER BLIZZARD! And the day after that April 6 storm, on April 7, the strong wind continued over a deep snow pack and an overcast sky with dim sunshine at times and temperatures in the teens most of the day! But by Sunday April 11 (Easter for many), the ground was bare.

        1. And the only reason I remember the 5th is because I was outside all day doing surveying. I was taking a course at WIT at the time. 🙂

        2. I remember the night of April 3 because I was hanging out on the porch & driveway of 2 sisters I knew, Kathy & Jeanette. One had a crush on me, and I had a crush on the one that didn’t. Figures right? 😛 Teenagers…

    1. Actually February was the new May and March is the new January, but only for 2018. 😛

    3. Great pictures Mark! The recent storms and especially some big upslope snow events have been very kind to the ski areas lately after a rough February.

  13. Based on the 12z ECMWF and the ensemble probabilities off the CMC/GEFS, it seems accumulating snow is certainly possible at least in southeast New England late Wednesday into Thursday. If the storm structure is more coherent- like the new ECMWF- it raises the chance for a more solid precip field to impact the region. If more stretched, like the ICON, it probably stays south.

    That first shortwave will scoot offshore without incident for us, but then a separate piece of southern stream energy will lead to the second storm, which is the one we should be watching. I actually like what the 12z GFS op run is doing in general for the evolution. Would not take much of a shift NW to bring significant precip into our region, and based on the upper jet it’s showing, I think that’s at least possible. At the very least, too early to write off.

    1. Thanks Wx.

      I was just now peeking at the Euro. Shows about 3-4 inches
      of Snow all the way up to Boston (on the map. Doubt it would actually accumulate that much.)

      Snow map and 2 surface and precip maps

      https://imgur.com/a/SEqwI

  15. The way it has gone this month I am not surprised seeing a shift to the NW. Lets see if this continues in future model runs.

  16. All the models are extremely close, but different in ways, some closer some further, some with less storm centers some with more, there are alot of pieces at play and we probably won’t know until a few days before each low pressure is to pass south and east

  17. Just copied and pasted this from NWS Twitter page:

    Folks, monitoring a potential Wednesday → Thursday #NorEaster; low confidence forecast presently; evaluating possible threats & impacts of accumulating snow & strong NE winds … also some coastal flood issues around a early Thurs AM high tide; stay informed to later forecasts

    1. Wow! That almost sounds like it is coming from one of those Bogus
      outlets. Strong words from the NWS.

  18. Red Sox open a week from Thursday in Tampa with 3 games, then 2 games against the Marlins before opening at Fenway on April 5th. They don’t play a night game at Fenway till the 10th against the Yankees. Still could be awfully cold that night. I wouldn’t want to be siting out there. You never would get warm the rest of the night.
    They have a 10 games home stand from the 5th – 16th. Then a west coast trip from the 17th to the 26th.
    You’d think they could delay the home opener to maybe the 10th. Every day down the calendar in April can mean a few degrees warmer. I guess that’s too late to open at Fenway but man those first 2 weeks in April can be brutal, especially at night.

    1. Not certain of this, but I believe that many years ago, baseball season began around mid-April. That would be a better start timeframe IMO even if I am incorrect on that.

      Of course at Fenway, the season could start early June and a winter coat might still be needed given that sea breeze. 😉

      1. The company Mac and I worked for had an international conference mid April every year. I seem to recall that many who attended would get tickets to opening day. I may be I correct. It may be they just went to a game.

  19. The discussion of spring in New England is interesting. Is it not spring or is it not the many perceptions of what spring should be that causes folks to say there is no spring. Crocuses are out. Buds are popping on some trees. Red winged blackbirds are back. Peepers were back for a day. Daylight is longer. Sun angel makes sun feel warmer. Hot, cold, rain, snow…..spring is just about here and it is. It seems to me that rather than worry about what we think spring should be that we would feel a whole lot happier if we stop to take the time to see what it is. The world around us is coming to life. Rebirth. What is better than that 🙂

    1. It’s cold, the trees are sticks until May. That ain’t spring in my book. I guess you and I will go back to disagreeing again.

      1. spring in New England has a different definition than most of the country. So I guess in a way you are probably right by New England standards .

        1. I am familiar with different areas of the country….Mac of course was used to different areas of the world. There was never a day or area he didn’t love for its uniqueness. The grass is always greener just wasn’t part of either of our repertoires.

          As for seasons….I see summer and winter as the stronger seasons Spring and fall as transitional. And Blackstone, we don’t disagree. We just see things from a different perspective. Nothing wrong with that.

  20. Baseball needs an overhaul. 150 game season would be about right. Even 140. Start mid April, play the World Series in October. As it is now, game 7 can be in November.
    And the unbalanced schedule needs to go. 19 games against division opponents is rediculous. Sox only play 2 series with the Indians. I do not need to see 19 games against Tampa. Even 19 games against the Yankees is a bit much. Too many games against the national league. What started out a novelty small number of series turned into playing half the other league. Get rid of it, go back to a balanced schedule, and cut the season by 15 games.

    1. I also seem to recall….and I was very young so may be 100 percent wrong….that there were two divisions and the winner of each division played in the World Series

      1. In the ancient world, yes 😉

        For most of the last 40 plus years, there was no wild card, no “divisional series” and the league championship series was best 3/5. No with the 2 wild cards, 3/5 divisional series, and 4/7 champioonship series, the season has to start in snow and cold and ends that way.

          1. I dunno. I liked the way it was when I was a kid. 2 divisions in each league, east and a west. Best 3/5 between divisions, then World Series between national and American League. But something pure about best team in the league goes to the series. But if that were the case, a balanced schedule would be a must.
            They’d never do it either. Too much money would be lost.

            1. You are absolutely correct. Money is what got us the extra games. And I don’t mind your way either. That actually could be what I’m remembering.

              1. No your remover right. Up until 1969, there was only one division in each league. The top team in each league played the World Series, that was it. But there were only 10 teams in each league.
                1969 to 1993 is what I liked. League championship series, best 3/5 then best of 7 WS. 1985 it went to best 4/7 for both rounds.
                In 1994, the playoffs got out of hand .

    2. I’ve always thought the number of games played was insane. Interest in baseball keeps dwindling because there are too many games of no consequence. People are rabid about football because almost every game matters.

      1. The NBA and NHL seasons last waaayyyy too long as well. Not so much that the regular season is too long, theres just too many teams that make the playoffs. Baseball season is a month away from being half over by the time the NBA and NHL finishes the playoffs.

    1. When you say hello to a different model I just have jerry lewis’ voice the way he would say “HEY LADY!”

  22. As usual, SREF foreshadowed the NAM. 18z run goes for a high impact mid-week snowstorm. Certainly not a lock, but one of several viable solutions.

  24. Lol, 17” in western CT at 84 hours on that NAM run and not done yet. I knew this thing would back, we have seen this over and over this winter.

    1. Indeed.

      I’d like to know what changed, other than 500mb, 300 and 200 mb
      flow amplifying faster and more than the 12Z run.

      1. the high to the north is not as strong as previous runs and allows the precip shield to move further north. Something I been watching for a bit. Nam just keeps it spinning to the south of the region. Most of that precip is do to the east wind coming off the water.

  25. Mike Waunkum already has a snowfall map showing 2-4″ for E MA including Boston. He’s going along with the Euro.

  26. What’s amusing is that the CMC which was the first to really bring it back into mass with 8 or 9 inches in boston is now having it just graze while the NAM now slams us. like… what? lol

  28. Gotta love how much the media hangs on every model run like it’s more accurate than the previous.

    Doesn’t work that way.

      1. They’re all guilty of that here and there. If the Euro didn’t exist, a couple of Mets would be lost, or have to go back to doing it the old fashion way. Like Don Kent or Copeland did.

  29. Didn’t take long for the phone app to show snow Wednesday and Thursday. Must be true haha.

  30. Now what? 18Z GFS is more off shore than the 12Z run.

    Has the NAM just gone off the rail? Has a bit of support from the Euro, but the
    Euro comes no where near what the NAM is spitting out.

    Onto the 0Z suite for perhaps a reality check OR even some confirmation???

    Who knows.

    Time will tell.

    I really find it fascinating, one way or the other. 😀

        1. I been searching for new skis this winter, my old ones i gave to my younger brother. Tried out the Atomic Vantage 85s, How have you been liking the 95s?

          1. Yes I do like them. They are a pretty versatile ski. Big difference from my old volkls which were a much longer and narrower ski.

              1. heard they are good at going over crud and better at carving your lines do to the higher tip in the front.

        2. I remember when Head giant slalom with tyrolia bindings were as good as you could get. Spelling may be off. And you measured them by holding your arm up and to wheee your wrist bent.

          I also remember my dad skied tuckerman on barrel slats

          Am I dating myself 😉

          1. I know people that have 20+ year old skis and you can see the difference. my heads were 15 years old with the high tip in the front. I could go through so much stuff with the skis and they did take a beaten but they are in still good shape for recreational use. Its why my brother now has them and I been trying out new stuff, but have to say until I took out the atomics i was not finding anything that I liked. The head skis have lowered their tips and widened the ski for some stupid reason. I hate the rounded low tips, i find them harder to go over the crud that forms in the afternoon. Vicki I can only imagine how skinny those skis were. 😀

      1. yeah, have you been lately? Some of the skis that use to be some of the best would be terrible now a days not because they are bad skis but due to snow conditions being chopped up rather quickly. I won’t name who’s fault that is but I will say its been a rivalry on the slopes for a long time.

  33. The tv mets on the evening national newscasts are already putting out warnings for the east coast for Wednesday.

    1. That’s ok, one of the local guys is back to “nor’easter #4” and then went ahead and tagged “nor’easter #5” for next weekend. So, count it. Both are a lock because they have “unofficial official labels”.

      1. Ugh why is every storm called a Nor’easter? Seems like no matter how intense or where it originates from or whatever it’s a nor’easter.

        1. Yup. And it’s incorrect. I really just wish that term would go away.

          Lows and highs should be identified by the regions they are in. It’s less confusing and teaches people geography at the same time. But it would never catch on because most people aren’t that interested in good ideas that don’t sound dramatic somehow.

          1. Well I can tell you it conjures up images or perceptions of more powerful storms. It would be like calling every storm an Alberta Clipper…maybe that will be the thing next season ha…that and naming winter storms (pet peeve of mine). Talk about personalizing weather and making it about emotion.

            1. I really just prefer forecasting the weather, emphasizing the players in the atmosphere and the expected conditions and impact. Simple is better. But I’m in the extreme minority on that belief these days, when it comes to media, social or otherwise.

              1. I have a teenager at home…and as someone who was there when the internet first came out I can tell you social media has ruined so much. I personally hate it and avoid it as much as I can. From your perspective, anyone can claim to be a weatherman and have a forecast.

              2. Except and again that is the responsibility of the individual. If we cannot do our due diligence, it is our fault and not the fault of the media. As far as social media, again….it has amazing pluses. If it is used for negatives….whose fault is that? We are far to quick to blame others.

  36. The way it’s going this month we will probably get it . I was saying to my wife the other day I can’t belive how fast this month is going by it usually drags . I’m so excited for summer it will be here before you know it .

  37. Can I just say how much I despise taxes and tax law and how we file our taxes in this country. It’s so archaic, and no, electronic filing does NOT help matters

      1. Yea my wife insists on using H&R Block and I hate it. Also, first year being able to claim our son as a dependent and find out we’re not eligible for the child tax credit b/c we make too much money?!? Are u friggen kidding me?? We barely get by for Christ’s sake and we can’t get a little credit for keeping a child alive for a year? Ok, rant over

        1. I have an accountant because I have my own business. I sent my info last week. I will owe more than anyone on a single income should owe. I’m with you Ace

          1. I have to pay a ridiculous amount of taxes because of my book. It’s good that it’s doing well but the amount the government takes for something they have no hand in creating is ridiculous. Had so many things and issues pop up during spring/summer last year that I all about spent it all and wasn’t able to save money for taxes so I am left scrambling to come up with thousands before April 15th. Gotta love it.

            1. Arghhhh. That has always been a pet peeve. Money to the govt that they did nothing for. And wait….what book?

                1. Haha. Only buy it if you feel it will be good fun or a good doorstop! 🙂 (This blog always gets weird when the reply chain goes this far over to the side lol)

            1. My wife has a business. Self employed. I still do them. But I understand it real well and feel comfortable doing it.

              1. Too many other variables I can’t get into. I always did taxes prior. My kids do their own. I am comfortable having an accountant in case something goes wrong

        3. You can’t make much to be eligible for that child tax credit. Kids are expensive. You’ll pay for them forever 🙂

    2. I am being held up on doing my taxes because I am missing a single document from an estate lawyer and a tax accountant. The word nightmare doesn’t quite capture it.

      1. Arghhhhhh. I’m in the middle of a nightmare because of stocks Mac got through his company and they will not transfer to me. They are making me pay hundreds because I never received the certificate. They sent it feb 2015….not certified mail. Anyone here remember feb 2015 and wanna bet on reliability of mail.

        We need to all revolt. Or have a tea party but with something more potent than tea

        1. Stocks are a bear. I had a bunch of options when my company sold. I did it myself, but it was a challenge.

          1. It is more complicated because they are in Macs name. And it truly ticks me off that they send something without proof and charge me when I never received anything.

            Good luck to you Longshot. I’m groaning thinking about it

        2. ill bring the vodka and Tequila to be honest I hate the tax credit for the adults who have children that are classified as dependent. Want to know why? If I classified myself as independent, I would of had the pell-grant and not have to pay a single loan. If I knew better I would of changed that rather quickly lol.

    3. Obama’s Tax rules are still in play this year. Next year Trumps tax rules will go into effect and you will get a lot more back. We go from paying this year to getting a return of up to several thousands of dollars next year With three kids. This is what our acccountsnt told us and is not a slam on the previous president.

  38. Well, it’s not a weather related question. But, I value your opinions. Is anyone familiar with Brooklyn, New York. My daughter just matched there for her residency–at SUNY Brooklyn. She needs to find an apartment–and she’s in Michigan, so that means that I need to find an apartment. She’s a reasonably street savvy person, but she is a young woman. Any connections? Anyone know a realtor in Brooklyn?

  39. With the tax stuff, i like it because as of right now I have been able to get everything back. Nice old cash put back into the account lol.

  40. After the 00z NAM, #FourEaster or whatever the hell it is now may have to start un-trending again. 😉

  42. Good morning.

    Well it now looks like a full-fledged “Nor’Easter” is pretty much off the table, however,
    A pretty healthy side swipe/graze may be in the cards. Believe it or not, but the Euro
    was the most robust. GFS and NAM have about 5 inches Kuchera for Boston. Euro has
    about 5 for Boston, but 6-8 just SW of the city. SREF has just over 5 inches for the City.

    Here is Euro Snow:

    https://imgur.com/a/fRXtD

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