Tuesday Forecast

429 Comments

7:55AM

EDITED AT 4:30PM FOR SNOW AMOUNT ADJUSTMENT

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
Dry and cold today as high pressure holds off the first of 2 storms to the south, then gives way to the second storm during Wednesday into early Thursday. There is still some question as to the total impact of the storm, snow-wise, in the region as it will be a bit of an unusual configuration and movement and difficult to time the behavior of the surface low in relation to the upper level system spawning it. For now, hold onto the general idea of yesterday but adding slightly to the snow accumulation to account for more of the snow at night. There is still another 24 hours to nail down the details for the next full blog post as the event will just be getting underway tomorrow. Drier weather is back late week, but still chilly. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 22-28. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow but only minor accumulation on unpaved surfaces later in the day. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH northwestern areas, 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH southeastern areas.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except may mix with rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches most areas, but an area of under 2 inches possible north central MA and southwestern NH and an area of 4-7 inches possible interior southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Lows 24-33. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow southeastern NH and eastern MA with little additional accumulation. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind N 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
Still watching a potential system for March 25 but it may pass to the south. A little uncertain thereafter with one more possible system late in the month but some moderation in temperature as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
May start mild then a cooler trend comes back with a risk of some unsettled weather as well. Low confidence forecast continues in the longer range.

429 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. “DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
    Still watching a potential system for March 25 but it may pass to the south”

    Are we really going down this path again? Haha.

  6. Wow not that out of line with other Mets if it hits the high number for Boston. I was actually thinking the same idea with higher amounts as this is basically an overnight storm if it’s staring late Wednesday afternoon.

  7. I need 12 more inches and I’ll have 4 feet for the month. I hate this shyte, but if I’m that close to 4 feet for March, I guess bring it.

  8. Good morning,

    I agree that more will fall overnight. That is not my concern. My concern is the overall evolution of the system and how much actual qpf gets in here.

    The NWS feels that a 10:1 ratio or a bit more might be in order. We shall see about that.

    NAM will begin cooking in about 1 hour and We’ll have a look at it and see what’s
    cooking.

    My biggest concern is the 3KM NAM. That sucker is usually decent and its
    qpf is waaaay low. I didn’t like the Euro either, but it had .6 inch a qpf.

    IF the ratio is indeed 10:1, then 3-6 looks good, IF it is a tad higher, then 4-8
    looks good.

    Where on earth the 10-14 inches if coming from is beyond me??????

    And one more thing that supports the 3-6 or 4-8 thinking….

    The SREF has been rock solid on about 6 inches for Boston.

    Now watch the NAM blow the roof of off the joint! 😀

  11. If I may break briefly with discussion of the storm tomorrow…..with reference to the storm chaser that I mentioned here last night. TK thought it was all right to share her name. I love stories of people who go above and beyond. Emily doesn’t know me other than I post occasionally on a FB page she is on. I saw the track of the system in the south, along with multiple tornado warnings. It looked to be headed toward College Park, GA, which is where Mac’s sister lives. As it got closer, Emily switched from the FB general comments and PM’d me. She said that if I were to lose contact with my sister in law, that she had a team in the area and she would have someone check on her.

    This is the absolute finest when it comes to human nature. Emily kept me posted on the track of the tornado that was headed straight for College Park. It dissipated just before reaching my sister in law’s location. Thanks to Emily, I was able to keep in touch with my SIL so that she knew exactly what was happening. My SIL was just diagnosed with stage 1 heart failure and taking as much worry away from her was my biggest hope. Emily did not know this, but she made that happen for a complete stranger. There are angels everywhere…….including right here on earth.

    3. What an amazing story and human being. I am so glad you were able keep your SIL safe and also have peace of mind. Thank you for sharing.

  12. 9Z SREF actually down a tad.\

    Ensemble mean snow for Boston: 5.14 inches
    To give an idea of the ensemble spread:

    High member: 13.78 inches
    Low member: 0.00 inch

    Instills confidence, doesn’t it.

  13. Everyone at my office stating how confusing this is…some excerpts I have been overhearing from various people (all true):

    1. Jeremy R said the snow starts tonight!
    2. I heard 18″ (this is north of Boston)
    3. It’s going to snow all the way to Friday?!?!
    4. Wait we are getting snow? When did that happen?
    5. I heard this was a miss!

    2. From my customers I’m hearing “we’re getting a foot tomorrow,” “everything will be cancelled tomorrow and Thursday,” “another nor’easter on Sunday…..”

  14. Thanks TK !

    I think the snow numbers are less relevant in this specific case.

    Sure, maybe on the trees and existing snow cover, the snow totals could reach the moderate amount.

    But, on the pavement, which is what truly will effect everyone, this one, because its that much later in March with not a super cold air mass and lacking the continuous heavy precip intensity throughout the event, has 1-2, maybe 3 slushy inches on paved surfaces written all over it.

    1. The ground is quite cold. Some are underestimating that. The snow will stick. Besides, most of the heavier snow occurs during the early evening and overnight hours.

    2. It’ll never end. Permanent feature till the second coming.

      At least thats what it feels like.
      Tends to go in a 5-6 weeks cycle. So we have another 3 weeks or so? Mid april.
      I dunno, just my guess

  17. I fear this is another in a long line of springs where a pattern change doesn’t give us warmth, but we just have to wait on climo to pull us out of it.

    2. At the end of February, everyone thought that was the end of winter and snow.

      The pattern could flip to a more La Nina pattern in April and bring warmth to the east very quickly.

  18. When it does get a little better organized, it “appears” to be a bit too far off shore.
    This run looking like a side swipe. I am predicting snow numbers to be down.
    Let’s see what kind of fool I’ll look like. 😀 😀 😀

  19. It will be interesting if NWS expands the Winter Storm Warning further north later this afternoon.

  20. The NAM is confounding me. Very bizarre the way this thing comes together.
    It once again looks like the 500mb closed low is what will help to generate
    the precipitation. It now doesn’t want to get going up here until
    about 4-6 PM tomorrow, which will place all of the precipitation at night and a few hours of low sun angle. In short, whatever falls WILL accumulate. Just a matter of
    how much falls.

  21. The NAM’s a mess ….. beyond its usual mess …

    I don’t think it can handle the waves of low pressure south of us correctly. Thus, it keeps a 992mb low sort of in the same position for hours on end.

      4. As little as I can read models, I would still say this is a model mess. We are sort of at a point where it’s pick what you want. At this point, you couldn’t use the word consensus in a sentence. I am not very confident that the midday runs will give us a clearer picture.

  22. NAM snow totals definitely DOWN from 6Z and most especially from 0Z runs.
    I’ll wait another frame to pick up that last 1/4 or 1/2 inch. 😀

    1. That shows a general 4-8 inches. Not a bad little storm by late March standards especially since the storm was a graze job a couple of days ago.

      1. Yup, agree! While I think the NWS maps and most TV maps are overdone, its still warning level criteria for a many (according to the NAM anyways).

        1. The NAM has just become more realistic. I don’t expect these numbers to drop much more if at all.

    1. Hence the 6-10 as some have advertised. Most will end up with 6 but a few locations will see as much as 10 so I understand the idea behind spread.

      2. And I like TK’s 4-8 inches over a general 6-10 inches at this point.
        Subject to change as more data becomes available (read that the Euro)

    2. This actually seems quite reasonable with less to the northwest due to the tight precip cut off and to the southeast where mixing and snow ratios may pose an issue.

      1. I agree. The 3KM NAM now looks much better than
        the previous run. Still not a block buster by any stretch
        of the imagination.

        To me, just a ho-hum snow event. I wouldn’t even call it a
        snow storm. It will look pretty, but no great shakes.

        AND, the NWS map of 10-14 inches is down right criminal.

          1. People keep asking me if we will be closed tomorrow. People think tomorrow will
            have great impact. WoW!

            I tell them we will be open tomorrow and highly likely Thursday as well. 😀

  26. “All morning computer forecast models from the NAM, GFS to the Euro have now been reviewed and they tend to agree on a long-lasting and major event…”

    1. Since the GFS and EURO morning runs are NOT YET COMPLETE,
      whoever put out that statement is off their rocker!!!!

  27. I like the look on the 12z NAMs. Blend the regular and the hi-res (they aren’t as different anymore) and correct for ratios, and you basically have my forecast.

    1. Now that they are more in agreement. Still not much of a snow storm.
      You still calling for your original 4-7??
      4-7,4-8 what’s the diff. Better than the 6-10 forecasts and more. 😀

      1. I’ve always preferred using 4-7 (or 5-8) over 4-8. 4-8 is a little wide for my liking at those numbers. But that’s really just me splitting hairs 🙂

        Still some uncertainty though. For this afternoon, I’ll mostly be interested in the 12z RGEM/HRDPS, the 12z WRF guidance, and the Euro.

        1. I actually prefer a narrower gap, like
          4-6 or 6-8, but I’m a fussy old coot.

          I think that TK and yourself are in the correct ballpark,
          subject to additional data.

          I, for one, will be very interested to see how the Euro handles this situation.

  29. Old salty if it’s 4-8 how the hell is it just a HO HUM event . 4-8 is decent especially if it’s 8 I guess I just don’t get it . You are still getting snow in March that shouid satisfy you .

    1. SSK,

      If you don’t know by now, I am WIRED differently than the average Joe.
      I am NOT satisfied with ANYTHING. Believe me, it takes some doing
      for a storm to impress me. This one ain’t gonna cut it. 😀

      Here is my theme song:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ituFNPXAaE8

      And yes, a 4-8 inch snow event is HO-HUM to me. It’s NOTHING.

      I think 6 inches or so would be TOPS for Boston. We shall see.

      2. I actually agree. We have seen thousands (more literally, hundreds) of events dumping 6 inches over the region. Not sure why anyone would be “impressed.” I’m impressed if I am impacted by a storm of unfamiliar grounds.

      1. Not if it ends in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. Delays I can see and perhaps a smattering of school cancellations but not “most.”

        1. I disagree. Given the state of some communities still reeling from the previous storms, snow removal took a back seat to other safety and power issues. I can see another 8″ of snow, even if it stops by the morning, will cause enough problems to close. Add on top of that the current forecasts

          1. You’re assuming 8″ even though the range is 4-8 😀 Some communities will see 4 and many of those school will be open. A few may see 8 and agree that those locales are more likely to close.

            1. See, the problem with 4-8” is the low end is winter weather advisory (no cancellation) and the upper end is winter storm warning (cancellation). See the dilemma?

              1. Not really. Call it what you wish. Winter weather advisory, winter storm warning, etc. 4 inches will close fewer schools than 8 inches and not many will see 8. Time will tell 😀

  31. 12z RGEM basically a carbon copy of the 6z run… like the consistency there. It raises the possibility of a slight shift southeast, and also that the higher totals could extend towards at least the lower Cape. Always a little tricky figuring the R/S line out down there.

    12z:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018032012/rgem_asnow_neus_48.png

    6z (for comparison):

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018032006/rgem_asnow_neus_54.png

  33. A couple of serious tornadoes in the Southeast last night, one hitting the city of Jacksonville, AL where they have a pretty big university. Pockets of major damage, a few injuries, but zero fatalities reported. A really good success by the warning system, from the NWS on the warning issuances to the broadcasters helping to communicate it.

    1. Oddly, I just spoke to my sister in law and she said it was business as usual as the tornado approached her area just south of Atlanta. Neighbors were coming and going and traffic on the streets was just the usual. I asked if she had an early warning system and she was not aware of one.

      1. Interesting. I know there was at least one tornado pretty close to Atlanta a few hours after the events in Alabama. I was watching things unfold in Alabama and the system seemed to work very smoothly. A tornado warning was issued for Jacksonville 20 minutes before they were hit; not sure of the warnings/lead time that Atlanta had. They’re very experienced with this in Alabama though. Even though it’s close by, they get quite a bit less of this in the Atlanta area. I bet the public perception is a little more lax in that area than to the west. Would be an interesting social science project.

        1. Did you see my comment above re the tornado you are referring to in GA? It was closing in on my sister in law’s location in College Park, GA and then fell apart…thank heavens.

  34. I will say one thing, the GFS does NOT appear to be in the same messy state
    as the NAM was. Will that translate to more snow? I doubt it, but we shall see.

  35. JP Dave, while it’s not going to be an impressive storm here I think it might be impressive (biggest of the season) in New York City. Also, just a few days ago this storm was going out to sea and we wouldn’t be impacted at all. Now, it looks like we’ll have a mini storm to contend with. Looking ahead I don’t think Boston is done with snow after this week’s storm. We could be headed for totals for the season (measured at Logan) that top 70 inches when all is said and done. I never would have thought that would happen when the season started.

  42. At market basket and it’s a mad house. Guy in front of me heard blizzard ha. Many carts loaded with waters and bread. Someone also said this was going to be the biggest snow yet.

    1. Where is everybody getting their forecast info? No wonder TK gets frustrated with media outlets at times.

      2. A lot of old people too…out in droves for bread. Lines were pretty long but got through on the express lane OK. One guy had about 12 gallons of water and was talking to someone about hopefully not losing power with the storm. To each their own I guess…just don’t get how people don’t have enough food already in their houses for a day or two ha.

        1. Tuesday in this area is traditionally senior discount day. The elderly always have a fair amount of bread, etc. It is their typical shopping day.

          Water is a huge problem is folks have a well and they lose power.

  43. Busy morning! Thanks Dave as always for the links. I am liking the looks of the NAM for CT and feel pretty confident we don’t get screwed here this time. Still liking 6-10″, at least for my area, and would not be surprised if someone in CT gets 12″.

    Forget the climatology for a minute. We have been in a COLD pattern. We are back in the 20’s again tonight and many areas will not crack freezing tomorrow. Ground surfaces are cold….in fact, most ground surfaces are still covered with snow. Snow has no problem accumulating on snow. Also factor in that the heaviest precip. comes in late PM when the sun angle is lowering as well as after dark. These factors will significantly mitigate the late March climatology issue.

    The biggest hindrance I see to significant accumulations is simply not getting heavy enough precip in here and lower QPF values. If we do get 0.75-1.25″ QPF in here like the NWS thinks, there will be no issue getting 6-10″ with isolated higher amounts.

  45. Love this headline…especially the ending…

    “FOURTH Nor’easter this month is headed for the North East on the first day of Spring bringing up to 11 INCHES of snow in NYC and New Jersey… and it WON’T be the last”

  47. Cindy on Ch. 5 has updated her map ever so slightly. The 8-12″ zone is now moved just SW of Boston which was included this morning. Still Boston is in 5-8″.

    Is this a slight shift southeast? a trend?

  48. Both 4 and 7 noon reports had tomorrow night’s commute being the most difficult. They had storm out of here (mostly) by 7:00 am – ish. It is possible schools will get away with an delay. Towns out here I would guess are more likely to be able to do so since sidewalks do not have to be cleared. Further east, it may be more problematic; however, they also might get less snow.

  49. People are rescheduling tomorrow’s work meetings left and right citing the snow as the reason, ugh.

    2. Everyone here (this is a small office) said they are not coming in tomorrow. For me that’s mean a nice quiet day in the office with no interruptions ha.

  55. Mark’s post just above made me think of this ….

    Why do all the snow maps show big snows in SE PA, etc and then ease as they come into New England ??????

  56. I had to clear the deck table to make room for new snow. Looks as if TK and I were a bit off on when it would melt. Nothing disappeared after Wednesday last week – or was it Thursday – on the table or the entire deck. Sure did on grass areas although they are mostly still covered. I did take a pic of table.

    1. Same down here. Shaded areas have 4 – 8 inches, anywhere open to the sun, much, much less with some bare ground.

      I don’t think anything melted in the sun on Sunday though.

  57. Cold 850 mb contour over SE Mass and Cape Cod at hr 48 on EURO … an area of heavy precip cooling the column ???

  59. 1:45pm update from Grey, ME for Taunton says after seeing the 12z model data, they will be lowering expected snow amounts north of the Mass Pike, with best chance for snow in SE Mass. …… of course @$#!#%$!$&^%$&*^*!!!(*&(*&!*)*/!)) I cant express frustration like Jp Dave 🙂 🙂

  60. Boy, the 12z Euro throws a kink in things. Practically a swing and a miss outside the Cape. I was actually thinking of upping totals a little south of the Pike and especially interior southeast MA. But, weighing my previous thoughts and with the entirety of the 12z data in, I will instead leave everything unchanged once again.

      1. I would say that’s true starting with the 0z suite, but at this range, the Euro is both skilled and hi-res enough to merit equal weighting with the short range guidance. The 12z WRF and HRDPS runs offer some subtle support for the Euro solution as well, but they’re not as extreme.

    3. I was just going to say that. I was in another damn meeting.

      Here is the snowmap anyway

      https://imgur.com/a/sUpZR

      How do you like them apples? Eh?

      ROTFLMAO!!!

      This is freaking HILARIOUS!!!!

      Now what? IGNORE the Euro?

      Just PERFECT!!! Love it!!!!

      1. God if this run of the euro came to fruition it would just add more grist to the weather people know nothing mill.

  61. A couple additional thoughts on how this may go…

    1. I think it’s increasingly likely that areas northwest of a Springfield-Worcester-Marlborough line get very little accumulation. Precip will be fighting dry air to the north, and the low track and precip intensity will not allow much to fall there. Cape Ann/NE Mass may still get a few inches due to the orientation of the precip shield.

    2. TK and I have talked about the lack of banding with this system. However, it is possible that one synoptic band may try to set up over parts of CT, RI, and eastern MA. If we get such a band and it does a slow moving “pivot”, you could see a fairly narrow stripe of 8-12″ within the 4-7″ region. Less NW due to lack of precip, less outer Cape/Islands due to low ratios/mixing. For the immediate Boston area, I’d say about 5-6″.

    1. If I may ask, why are you still a bit bullish given the 12Z Euro? Just curious. I’ve always admired your forecasting ability.

      1. I wouldn’t say I’m all that bullish. I’ve been below the TV mets and certainly the NWS for a couple of cycles now. It’s possible their forecasts will look more like mine this evening. The 12z Euro gives me pause, but I’d certainly never put all my eggs in one basket. A blend of my previous forecast and the 12z hi-res guidance + Euro basically just leads back to my previous forecast. Uncertainty still there, but I don’t think I can do better for now (with some of the caveats I mentioned below).

  62. Also, regardless of what happens in SNE, this is a mid-Atlantic special. Some big totals likely to come out of the NYC-PHL-DCA corridor. I know another big picture idea TK and I had had weeks ago was that much of storminess in this blocking pattern may be shunted south of us. Well, that didn’t work out for the most part, as the epicenter of the snow has been more in SNE. But at last, just as the pattern starts to break down, they’ll get their turn to our south.

  63. Looking elsewhere on social media, it is just amazing to me how sentiment shifts based on every run of the Euro, including and in some cases especially with professional mets. I don’t get it. Reason to pause and think, yes. Reason to radically alter your forecast when all other guidance is basically saying to stay the course? Not for me at least.

    I do think the Euro, along with some others, has helped confirm an idea of a sharp NW cutoff. For instance, where the NWS this morning had Fitchburg at 8″, I would say no more than 1-2″ there at this stage. But 11″ in Taunton or somewhere close by? Not unreasonable if we get one of those bands like the WRFs/HRDPS show.

      1. What are you thinking OS? Still unsure with the back and forth or leaning a certain way? Just curious.

        1. I just find the whole situation Hilarious.
          I have no horse in this race, seriously, I could give 2 craps what it does.

          I am certainly thinking lower rather than higher and not enough wind for an advisory, although there will be a pressure gradient regardless how close it comes. But wind advisory? I dunno.

  67. I am hoping the 12z EURO is wrong. Most of the models show my area getting just over a half foot.

  68. Tweet from Weatheroptics.
    It’s all guidance vs the ECMWF this afternoon for where the northern extent of the snowfall cuts off. Mesoscale + global showing heavy totals into SNE — ECMWF cutting things off north of NYC. Time will tell. Leaning towards guidance majority.

    1. This close to an event, for the EPS to be significantly different from the op is a sign the model doesn’t have a good handle on things.

  70. For COMIC RELIEF, watch what the EURO does with that
    system later on in the run. Talk about hitting a road block as it comes up off
    shore does an about face and ends up almost to the Bahamas!! 😀 😀 😀

    Perhaps that run was all F’D up and not real at all?????????????????
    OR this BLOCK is going to get SUPER CHARGED UP.

    Here is an animated loop.

    https://imgur.com/a/uQS9b

  71. Mark I just saw a tweet from Ryan Hanrahan saying will be lowering snowfall totals for parts of CT. I am thinking Northwest Hills will not be in that 6-12 inch range but will see.

    1. Thanks! Was hoping for lower amounts from him…no confirmation bias here…moving along haha.

      1. I’m a little lower than his forecast, but his forecast could also pan out if the heaviest snow falls overnight.

          1. I really don’t play the b&f game. I tend to adjust more gradually, kind of like the hurricane center does with storm tracks. 😉 But in this case I was NOT going to go too high unless the evidence became incontrovertible. And it has not.

  75. The only thing I know about all this is that models can have trouble when effectively a double-barreled set of lows come up the coast, on after another, and each with a different trajectory. Without understanding the dynamics, my sense is that the second low’s trajectory (which will impact our region) will depend to a certain extent on the first low’s course.

  76. I can tell you that the fact NWS still doesn’t have a winter storm warning up in places their snow map has a range of 8-12 inches speaks of their being on the fence about this.

    Since the start of this event threat (that is, once I realized my original idea of a complete miss was off the table) I’ve had funny feeling it’s just not going to behave as widely advertised, hence my reluctance to jump on the snow bandwagon.

    Their new snow map is due by 4:45PM. By then the area to the north under the watch should be upgraded to a warning if they are going to go with similar snow amounts.

    1. Wise young man, Mr. Tk.

      I am sorry and I don’t mean to denigrate anyone, but this whole situation
      has me in stitches. I just find it to be comical.

      In the past I’d be throwing furniture around the office and around the house.

      Now, nope. I’ll live with whatever happens.

      I keep waiting on word that the Euro run had initialization issues or some other such technical difficulty. Apparently, not.

        1. I have been under the same also. But I read that to be those in the watch area north of us may go to a warning. Perhaps, I’m reading incorrectly ?

    1. Comments section full of people saying they didn’t get anywhere near the NWS predictions of snow.

    2. Good call. Love watching the Channel 7 map evolve. This morning almost the whole state was 6-10…now 1-3″, 3-6″ etc.

    1. Don’t think they need it. Most areas won’t snow until after, and the ones that are will just have wet pavement, as if it’s just raining. But the gloom and doom info had already spread too far thanks to #foureaster. Blah.

    1. I don’t think it’s going to matter. Dry air is going to play a big role.

      In addition, that back edge of the elongated low is what will start to swing to the southeast.

  83. I’m probably going to cut my already somewhat low amounts down a little more. Since the wording is vague on this blog I’ll just edit the #’s so there is no confusion, then write tomorrow morning’s blog late tonight for an early post, right after 00z runs (just to be sure).

  86. 18z NAM shows 2ns low trapped underneath the 500mb closed low.
    It is not responding to steering, but rather being pulled almost due
    East by the movement of the upper low. It’s caught between a rock and a hard place’
    with no where to go, but continuing Eastward with an EXTREMELY sharp
    cut off to the snow. Not unlike the Euro.

    2. Well not really. My original call was a miss, as in nothing for anywhere (except I think I told someone Block Island would get in on the precip). But once I gave in to at the very least something happening, I was never ready to jump on the big snow bandwagon either. I just prefer to kind of stay on the same track until I am really sure, which often leads me to have different #’s or adjust last of everyone.

  88. Just got the call for early release for the Silver Lake District. They were supposed to have a half day on Thursday and that has now been canceled.

          1. If you are absolutely certain, then I migh get that meeting in after all. I worry more about even minor accumulation on the hill I mentioned to JPD. It is a long incline.

      2. It’s so sad that those officials who make these decisions
        don’t have access to the weather info available on this blog….

        It’s a shame they are provided with inferior information.

        1. Would you or others here feel comfortable guaranteeing nothing on the ground late pm? Early release is difficult because parents need to alter work plans and get home. I wondered about waiting on the half day cancellation, but I don’t pretend to know the situation, the town or the family dynamics so I’ll butt out.

          I am trying to figure out, based on TKs comments, if the roads will be clear till sunset. My meeting is over at 5:30 so it might still happen. Although, I have a mother of a hill to get up by the Mendon drive in with a light at the top which means stopping in the middle.

      3. They simply swapped their half day from Thursday to Wednesday in the name of safety. I see no need to reverse it at this point.

  89. Folks were surprised at my school when I was telling them tomorrow was not an issue and that I didn’t think we need an early release.

      1. Well ….. I don’t know. I feel like the tv mets have been saying that the impact would come at night.

        Plus, those not into the weather don’t get a feel for the idea that pavement in daylight in later march behaves differently for snow accumulation than pavement in January, unless something really anomalous is taking place temp wise, which isn’t the case in this event.

    1. Usually when we get to this stage, the 3km can look quite different from its lower resolution cousins. I’m guessing it will do just that, but not drastically.

  92. I am so happy with this ….. more dry air, more southern track, keep it coming.

    We’re onto Spring !!!!

  93. I just talked to a neighbor of mine in Wrentham (I’m home for spring break week). She told me she heard 10-15” for tomorrow, and was shocked when I told her I was thinking only 6-8. And if I was being honest I would’ve told her I was only expecting 5-6 here. But I literally think she wouldn’t have taken me seriously at all if I’d said that, thinking there’s no way possible we could come in that low. I could tell she didn’t believe me as it was.

    FWIW, the 18z 3km NAM was much more robust. Zero changes to my original forecast of 4-7 along and south of the Pike, except for the potential localized 8-12” band in interior southeast New England.

    1. Because 1) Apps don’t lie, and 2) The forecast you see first is always the best one. 😉

    1. The 3km, for whatever reason, does not always perform better, especially if marginal convective feedback is involved. Clue: There are a lot of thunderstorms involved in feeding low #2.

    1. No, it showed a much later advancement of the snow area and then a less intense episode of snow.

    1. 😀

      This has been one of the craziest systems yet. Unreal.

      Watch, after all is said and done, we’ll get walloped.

  97. Watch the 18z RGEM. Last two runs of that have been rock solid consistent. If it does it again, I’ll feel pretty comfortable with my forecast. If it shifts, I would expect future shifts to go in the direction that it shifts in.

        1. I put it in a few places and people repost it. There’s one other guy that also puts them together when I don’t have a chance and he puts his twitter handle on it and everything. He gets mad when people “steal” it. I, on the other hand, don’t care. It’s the meteorologists who did the hard work, I just put them in one spot. Was it on a particular page I can look at?

          1. I can’t find it now but I didn’t find one shared by a Salem witches group (not exact name) but they said it was from another group they are in. Good for you acknowledging the Mets work, but we sure appreciate your work in putting the maps together

  100. According to Eric, Worcester is 4 inches shy of the snowiest March on record. I wonder if they even get half of that?

    Eric also is not certain if we get more snow Sunday/Monday as it is no guarantee staying south. There is still room to come north as well.

  102. Quincy has declared a snow emergency starting 8am tomorrow, so if we get walloped, they’ll be prepared…

      1. I believe a snow emergency also lets folks prepare for alternate parking. What it entails also depends on the level. It doesn’t commit to anything. Why not prepare?

      2. It’s really incredible seeing all of the schools that are already announcing early dismissals tomorrow…

  103. RGEM with a similar idea to prior runs, but a touch further NW and a little more robust on QPF. Nothing to change the forecast, but again shows there may be an 8-12 band in interior southeast MA and south-central RI (11-12 would be very isolated).

    1. I think the bullseye is overdone but overall this is fairly representative of my current idea for a good part of the region. I liked the 12z RGEM better than the 18z.

      2. Hey Tk so about 6 for the medical you think and what about home . Also around what time will IT stop in Boston. Thanks

        1. I think 6 (maximum, and that’s pushing it) or less for both areas. Final flakes in Boston should be late morning on Thursday. Final accumulation in Boston will be shortly after dawn, if it’s not finished doing that already.

          1. Oh good I like the accumulation stopping by dawn so hopefully we can go home . Regular 7am start tomorrow than I’ll be a guest overnight

          2. Can this go higher again for Boston or maybe lower . So basically if medical gets 4 you wouldn’t be shocked . Thanks buddy

    1. 25-35 gusts inland, 35-45 gusts coast, with a few gusts 50+ possible South Shore through Cape Cod. Not that bad, but a little worst than had we not had a few big wind events recently, as we’ll have some weakened trees still vulnerable.

      Coastal flooding a bit of a threat with astronomical tides a little higher than the last storm, but not close to the big levels of previous events.

      1. Thanks. I was thinking about schools and suspect the wind plays into early dismissal for the exact reasons you give. We still have some compromised trees even out this way

  109. Kevin L. thinking of upping his totals to 12+ parts of the South Shore. Other mets all lowering them. Interesting to see the varying thinking still on a system near or under 24 hours from beginning.

      1. If I had a dime for every time he says the phrase “computer model data” on his daily broadcasts………..

    1. I like Bernie but sometimes he tend to group all similar features into “they can only do this” category. That’s what happens when you think of them as solid entities and not fluid ones.

  111. Pete has 50s late in the period on his 10-day forecast.

    TK – Are those temps realistic at this point in time?

    1. Yes they are. I have hinted at this type of moderation (without using #’s) with low confidence, on my outlook.

  114. Sharon schools early release tomorrow. All these communities are going to look so silly tomorrow IF this doesn’t really get going until later in the afternoon/evening. They probably think no harm since they don’t have to make up 1/2 days but it’s really difficult on working parents

    1. At least the early release days don’t have to be made up since the state considers it a full day (provided lunch is served I guess).

    3. As an older guy — 62 — I find it more difficult on a daily basis to live in a world where another panic is always around the corner. We have gone so far over the edge with premature panic and overreaction and it is only enhanced by social media. I am a school committee member in my town and I appreciate the fact that we have a superintendent who does not panic and who also listens to me at times. I introduced him to this blog and he uses it as one of his main weather prediction sources.

      1. As an older gal….69 in June…I find it more and more difficult that everyone forgets to stop and simply enjoy life. It goes by a whole lot faster as we age. I honestly do not think any of the superintendents are panicking. I think they know their towns, what their towns are still recovering from and the demographics.

    4. There is nothing silly about erring on the side of safety for kids. SSK gave the exactly correct reason.

      I’m not sure lunch has to be served but a curious question. Grandson is home at noon on early release days which means middle and high school are home well before that. But you are absolutely right that it counts as a day

      1. We have evolved into an incredibly soft society and the panic that is created by 6 inches of snow is ridiculous in my opinion. I know from past exchanges with you on this topic that you prefer to err on the side of caution. I can understand that point of view, but don’t subscribe to it. It’s just a difference of opinion…not big deal.

        1. I prefer every superintendent deal with his own town. I kind of chuckle at the err on the side of caution. When multiple children are involved, I feel there is no choice. My own….my daughter at under 100 pounds and 11years old was well into the jumping world on a pony that would often toss her overboard. My son hiked the app trail for several weeks on his own. I am surrounded by young adults who are anything but soft. But it is typical of a generation to think the one that follows is not quite as good as they are. So yes, we will agree to disagree.

        2. I have two children ages 9 and 11 whom I absolutely adore. I could not agree with you more, however. I could understand an early release if the storm was predicted to occur smack in the middle of the school day impacting efforts to get children home safely.

          However, this storm is not expected to begin until after school, nor will it accumulate until after dark.

          Hence, in my opinion, it is completely unnecessary for schools to release early tomorrow.

          1. Do you know the dynamics of each town…whether they have areas that could be compromised by trees that are unsteady? Whether their roads tend to be narrow and winding and ice faster than others? Whether a good portion of parents need to make arrangements with work to get home to their kids early? I simply do not understand how folks can criticize what an individual who knows his or her town does. We saw first hand what one bad call can do and how quickly something can go very wrong this year alone in Sutton.

            2. Though I agree with arod in the general sense, you are also correct that the cities and towns have varying circumstances of one or more kinds, and, like you, I like that it is dealt with on a town by town basis. It’s the only way to do it really.

              1. I suspect there is a really good chance the early release will turn out to be unnecessary. But no one can guarantee that nor should they. So it is a couple of hours. In addition to snow, there are a lot of loose trees and limbs. To come down on a bus of kids would be really bad.

                2. It could happen any day of the week. But you still don’t have the knowledge to make a decision for other towns. As aware as I am for my own town, I don’t feel qualified to make a decision for it. I’m also busy enough doing my own job 🙂

  115. Ch 5 is already broadcasting live from pembroke it’s like they smell a power loss. I should hunt them down and ask why they cut me out of the broadcast

    1. Go get them! 😉

      The channel chose that location most likely because of it being so hard hit before and they like to do “comparisons”.

      1. Nope resentment with them as they followed me and my son to my house, interviewing out front than going inside my house . Maybe I reminded them to many times how much of a Harvey fan I was

  116. Warning, if you’re crazy like me and look at basically every run of every model: Convective feedback completely messed up the 18z HRDPS run. You can see it very clearly in the evolution of the low centers, leading to astronomical snow totals in southeast MA. The 18z RGEM is reasonable (if perhaps a bit aggressive), but the HRDPS is not.

    1. We’ve seen it do this before too. It had 2 foot totals for Cape Cod on a recent event that I thought initially were just because it had the track further east but upon further investigation found it to be CF.

      1. All of the short term hi – res models are being thrown for a loop because of their inability to correctly handle the latent heat transfer from the rapidly forming downstream convection.

        1. Hi everyone. Been gone for 2 plus weeks with back to back work trips to Dallas and London. Did I miss anything?

          Also almost zero snow cover out here.

  117. Good evening. Heading out for a bit.

    I see that TK has lowered his amounts to 2-4 inches in general with isolated 4-7, unless I misread it as I did so quickly.

    That is NOT a snowstorm and nothing at all to HYPE.

    Now, it has been back and forth several times, is there room for a significant switch back to more snow? Could Uncle Bernie be correct?

    I dunno.

    Pretty crazy situation if you ask me.

    1. NWS still calling for inches in Boston. Now that is a stretch to be sure.
      Could it happen? I suppose. Will it happen? I seriously doubt it.

    1. I still think a solid 4-8 is in the cards with some locations falling short while others surpass the range.

  119. The numbers forecast for the urban centers of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and NYC may be too high given that much of the precipitation will occur during the day (in March) and urban centers tend to be warmer anyway, but I think that just (10-50 miles) west of these cities there will be some jackpot totals and records broken. There appears to be consistency across models for this to happen. The inconsistency of models occurs once the storm impacts Massachusetts. For example, it would seem that 1 to 8 inches could verify for Boston. Of course, no met will forecast 1 to 8 inches.

    1. Hadi, honestly I think that is a stretch. Would be nice though and at this point I wouldn’t discount anything. Coming up fast, so we’ll know soon. 😀

      I think 3 or 4 will do it. I reserve the right the change that later tonight or
      sometime tomorrow AM.

      1. Correct that’s the kicker and depending on how it merges with the low will dictate how far north it gets.

  122. CA is getting hit with another big storm, is it in our future? Thanks much for all the great information, this blog is the best.

    1. I believe that is the one expected to pass well south of us Sunday/Monday. No, it is not in our future.

  125. This was shared by our highway department. Perhaps the towns use the MEMA reports to aid in decision making.

    MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
    SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT

    DATE: March 20, 2018
    TIME: 4:30 PM
    SUBJECT: Nor’easter Wednesday into early Thursday
    FORECAST:
    Snow:
    • Snow will overspread the region early Wednesday and will be heaviest early Wednesday evening before tapering off Thursday morning.
    • 6-8 inches for eastern and northeastern MA; 6-12 inches in southeastern MA, with amounts closer to 8-12 inches near the coast.
    • Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the South Coast of Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard. The heaviest snow is expected to start falling Wednesday night, probably by the end of the evening commute.
    • A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Hampden County, MA where slightly lower snowfall totals are now expected.
    Wind:
    • Northeast to north winds may gust to 45-55 mph along the immediate MA coast. Winds may gust to 25-35 mph farther inland across the remainder of the region.
    • Peak Winds will occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
    Power Outages
    There is a potential for scattered power outages, especially in eastern MA and the Cape and Islands due to the likelihood of heavy snowfall and/or strong winds impacting these regions.

  126. Notable downward tick in QPF on the 21z SREF. We’ll see if the 0z NAMs follow with a more suppressed solution. Interesting how different pieces of guidance are going in different directions. Not changing the spread all that much, but some trading of places among the models.

    1. Every single storm this March has been, in my mind, awful for forecasters but great data for future forecasts.

    2. Bobby Orr. That brings me back to my youth. I remember skating for the first time in December 1970 on a small pond in Needham. I was 6. Couldn’t skate very well. Still can’t really. But, Orr was one of my two heroes (the other was Yaz). Ah, those carefree days on the pond. Later, in the mid 70s, we happened to move next door to Bobby Orr’s surgeon – Dr. Rowe. For my birthday he gave me an autographed picture of Orr. That picture adorns my home office to this day. Orr, and much later Bourque, and currently Bergeron epitomize the beauty of Bruins hockey.

  128. Is everyone enjoying the NAMs precip intensity up to 8pm tomorrow night on its simulated radar ….. sprinkles/flurries ……..

    1. Finally around 10pm, something of worthwhile intensity arrives …… glad we’re getting home 10 hrs before that.

      1. Under the NAM projection, the heavier precip kicks in around 10pm and is cranking at midnight. Let’s see what it puts down.

    2. This might be like that storm in early February 2010 that was supposed to at least hit us with something but didn’t do squat up here, while in the mid Atlantic some places saw over 25 inches of snow.

      1. I recall that one. The mets were on air apologizing, which they did NOT need to do.

        This solution looks crazy. Everything else is trending a bit southeast and this thing throws it northwest. Heck, its dry slotting the cape.

      1. Correct, doesn’t even really get going until 1 or 2PM out your way. And then it will take a few more hours to start accumulating. Certainly nothing to lose a school day over!

  132. Pure fantasy on this 00z run.

    It has the precip to northern NH

    All that convection in the mid Atlantic probably has this run so messed up.

  133. What’s up with people’s amnesia? I keep hearing people on local TV news say it’s been the coldest March. How about last year, folks? Yes, last year. Was eve colder than this year. Perhaps a tad less snowy, but we also had snow and it hung around for a while. In fact, going back to March 2015 I remember that on March 19th or March 22nd (can’t recall which) there was at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in every town and city in Massachusetts. Last year on or about the 16th of March practically every town and city in Massachusetts had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground (exceptions being MV, Nantucket, and Outer Cape). And this year looks to be similar to last.

  136. Reading through twitter and it’s highly entertaining,
    Some dismissing the NAM and others agreeing with it.

    1. Easy: The ones that want more snow bought the 12z and 00z runs and tossed the 18z. The ones that didn’t want it did the opposite. Confirmation bias at its best.

      Meanwhile the real forecasters continue to try to figure this out… 😉

    1. March Madness …. if the NAM were a basketball team, I wouldn’t let it into my 68 team tournament, nor the NIT !!!! 🙂 🙂

      1. No wonder it is tough to make a call about school. Everyone has been all over the map, literally, about amounts and start times.

  143. Stalking this site when you have jury duty in New Bedford on Thursday morning . You guys are the best.

    1. Thanks!

      They don’t tend to call Jury Duty off quite as easily as school, so I’d plan on having it. Best of luck!

  144. The 00z HRDPS model shows 2 feet of snow in southeastern mass. Tk. I know you said you like this model but I am guessing not anymore lol

    2. I have liked the way this model performed on systems prior to the run of major storms. So it clearly has its limitations. Something to study going forward…

  149. I been saying 3-6 and 4-8 for most of this time of looking at this storm with sharp cut off on the northern end of it.
    Current thoughts Southern CT 6 to 10
    Those south of the mass pike 3-6 with areas of up to 8 inches in interior SE mass possible ( including Boston and areas east of I95. )
    0-3 inches north of the mass pike and along and west of I95.

    I been thinking on these terms for a while but raised the possibility of higher amounts in southern CT but expect middle of that range.

    I was busy today, with school and some fun this evening after my evening class so could not make a map. Will do that in the morning before the storm.

      1. I’d say we are close to locking this in now at 12 hours from the start of the event. Still will be a bit of a challenge to figure out exactly where the jackpot area and the sharp NW cutoff of precip occurs but Boston should be safe.

  152. 00z HRDPS is an absolute crush job as Kane mentioned above, especially southern half of CT and RI. I would pay money to see that happen!

    1. Mark it’s my mistake I was actually looking at 18z when I made my comment above. Regardless it’s a good hit. I hope you get the good bands tommorow. I know you were in between bands last time. I know that feeling lol

  153. 00z Euro is basically a complete miss again for SNE with a widespread 1-3″. This model is off on an island right now. Not consistent with any other 00z guidance.

    1. But that doesn’t automatically make it incorrect either. 😉

      The computers are in a conspiracy obviously. They are communicating behind our backs. They planned it this way. 😛

  154. Not going to completely ignore the ECMWF because it illustrates a fear I’ve had about this forecast all along. But for this next post I have basically left things largely alone other than tweaks and adding some details. With the snow onset during the day today, have time via comments and, if necessary, an extra post, to make any last-minute adjustments.

    And the new post is ready! Have a good day all!

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