Monday Forecast

3:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)
High pressure centered north northeast of New England and a large storm far to the southeast in the ocean will combine for fair and chilly weather to start the week. A warm front will approach the region Wednesday and though this system will be fighting dry air in place, it may produce some light precipitation for a portion of the day. A milder southwesterly flow will dominate Thursday, but this type of flow is not so mild for the South Coast, which will be the coolest area. A low pressure system tracking north of the region Friday will drag a cold front toward southeastern New England but with mild air around this time we’re looking at rain showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain morning and midday which may fall as sleet and/or freezing rain interior locations for a brief time. Highs 40-48. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s coast, middle 50s to lower 60s interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs in the 50s except upper 40s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A cold front will push through the region during the morning of March 31, based on current timing, and the day will likely start rain showery, then turn breezy/colder/drier behind the front. As April gets underway, a fast-flowing pattern will be in control, and timing of systems is always suspect. The early call is for a small area of high pressure to provide fair weather on April 1, then a period of up and down temperatures and unsettled weather April 2-4, probably warm front with light precipitation threat April 2, approaching cold front with mild air ahead of it, then rain showers April 3, and windy/cooler April 4. But over a week away by default makes timing somewhat uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

44 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. I see possibilities for “some” April snow down the road. Just too early to know
    whether or not it pans out. Would not surprise me in the slightest. πŸ˜€

  2. SAK and I were chatting and agree that the ECMWF solution for early to mid next week is more believable than anything any recent runs of the GFS are spitting out.

  3. I must say that the EURO looks mighty interesting for 4/5-4/6, although certainly not a block buster, could deliver a bout of Wintry precipitation. Depending upon time of
    day for bulk of precipitation and exact track, “could” be a Moderate snow event.

  4. The euro’s 850 mb temps at hr 240 are downright depressing. Add to that a weak area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Who did we anger back in February ??

    1. Weak, true, but still .5 to .6 inch qpf, not to mention any possible
      shenanigans as it gets to the coast. πŸ˜€

      Long way off, so I wouldn’t worry about it just yet.

      Here is the Euro 24 hour qpf and snow for hour 240 on the 12Z run.

    1. Now that’s a bold statement. πŸ˜‰

      I am kidding though as I do like JR. πŸ™‚

  5. Today was bright, but it felt cold. While temperatures will `soar’ later this week, I’m not seeing any consistency during the next 2 to 4 weeks. So, we’re left with the usual prolongation of winter.

    I’ve been doing some recollecting, and memories from my youth and also later when I returned from my 15 years overseas suggest there have been plenty of years in which March (and April) were colder or cooler than normal along with significant snowfalls. In fact, I believe March and April of 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 were all cooler than normal with plenty of snow at times. And, while I wasn’t in the States at the time, I’m reminded by friends and WHW of several late season snowstorms during the 1980s, along with outbreaks of cold. In sum, spring has always been fickle in these parts, even during relatively warm springs. It’s our least predictable season, and also our least distinct.

    1. There is a misrepresentation of facts in media of late though, making it sound like spring is colder than normal more often than it isn’t. Over the long term, this may be only slight truth, in that there are more spring months that average slightly below the long term average and fewer months that are significantly warmer than average. This is actually typical of these months. How else would these averages be arrived at? If you look at seasonal variation, there are probably inequalities of amounts of months above and below normal, but the magnitude of these departures is skewed as a product of the atmosphere’s natural processes. Example, we probably have more September-November months that are slightly milder than normal and fewer that are significantly cooler than normal, but it’s that combination that makes the average, which, by the way has always been higher than the March-May average. I still have trouble getting people to believe that even after showing them the stats. πŸ˜›

    1. There’s not many. I’m at Plymouth State in NH. Tom hit the other two big ones. Western Connecticut State has a program as well, but I think it has become very small. Not quite New England, but SUNY Albany is another much bigger program in the region. I’ll be there for graduate study starting next year.

  6. I see the cold Canada and potentially northeast in 8-10 days ….. and then I look at the projected teleconnections and I’m struggling a bit to tie the 2.

    Trending positive NAO, slightly negative PNA …. seems somewhat conducive to Pacific air invading the North American continent.

    Perhaps it’s the AO, but while it trends negative, it’s not super negative.

    Maybe it’s one of the other teleconnections like the MJO that I know a lot less about ??

  7. Tom, You could also look at programs of Atmospheric, environmental and earth sciences. Depending on the school, sometimes even psychical sciences. which will increase your school search and usually have concentrations in meteorology/atmospheric sciences.

    I know this is not in new england but as an example of what I am saying
    https://www.evsc.virginia.edu/ the enviornmental program in university of virginia has an atmospheric science program.

    I also think there are a couple in CT.

  8. MIT used to offer meteorology, but what I see now is only

    Master of Science in Earth and Planetary Sciences (SM)
    Master of Science in Atmospheric Science (SM)
    Master of Science in Climate Physics and Chemistry (SM)

      1. Yup. That is what I initially wanted to do.
        Although I was plenty smart enough to attend MIT, 3 things contributed to my demise:

        1. I royally screwed up my admissions interview.
        2. I did not/do not/never did test well, therefore my SATS,
        although reasonably high, fell well below the extremely high
        standards set forth by MIT.
        I have a disorder that made it extremely difficult for me
        in classroom situations. The same thing that causes me
        issues in meetings, even today. I get by due to years of
        experience. I ended up graduating from the Mathematics
        program at Northeastern University.
        3. No way I or my family could have afforded MIT.

        1. 1. Interviews are usually for grad school….
          2. to hell with the SAT’s my SAT’s sucked, my GPA on the other hand in high school was a 3.8. The good programs care more about the commendations and GPA over the SAT’s
          3. you can see what classes only had a mid term and a final exam compared to those that have Papers.

  9. Channel 7 finally admitted it may snow again between now and marathon monday (which is the day they now claim snow is over…for the third time this season).

      1. It’s a tradition every year to see them say snow is over only to have it snow shortly thereafter.

  10. FWIW, last night’s Euro has moved the system approaching 4/6,4/7 well South.
    Looks like the cold wins out. We shall see.

    Meanwhile the CMC has snow event 4/2

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018032700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

    and 4/3

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018032700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

    for this in total (10:1)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018032700/gem_asnow_neus_32.png

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