Thunderstorm Update

60 Comments

9:59PM

A line of showers and thunderstorms will march eastward across eastern MA between 10PM & shortly after midnight (a bit later southeast of Boston). The heaviest activity will likely occur along and south of the Mass Pike, but areas to the north could see some downpours, lightning, thunder, and gusty winds as well.

For more on the weather and Irene, see previous discussion. Update coming after midnight.

Boston Area Forecast Update…

TONIGHT: Showers and storms crossing the region through 1AM, then just a slight risk of a passing shower or storm overnight. Muggy. Low 63-68. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH. Strong, gusty winds are possible near storms.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. High 82-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, some of which may be heavy especially at night. Low 66. High 80.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showery rains, heavy at times. Chance of thunder. Increasing wind, possibly damaging wind late day into nighttime hours, depending on exact path of Irene. Low 66. High 76.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 61. High 82.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

60 thoughts on “Thunderstorm Update”

        1. Triple H weather is never okay with me, but unless you live in Canada or even better, Alaska you really can’t avoid it entirely in North America. If we didn’t have cold fronts every now and then here in N.E., I believe I would really truly despise the summer season.

  3. Like u said it’s just a wobble but for the last 2 to 3 frames it has turned due north with an ever so slight east wobble, very interesting stuff, what do u think do u think the track goes even further west?

  4. Thanks TK

    Tom looks like ch 7 is in Brandt rock.

    They are covering the area destroyed by the tornadoes. It would be awful to see those houses also destroyed by Irene.

    1. Yes, I did catch that and this is going to be especially difficult for those tornado ravaged communities, and they are closer to the track.

    1. That pressure is getting quite low and in watching the 10pm newscasts, there seems to be some on-air mets who think the track is going to shift east a bit.

        1. I think so too……Falling pressure tonight and what I think will be an eastward shift tomorrow, I think the impact outlook is going to increase for eastern mass come tomorrow.

          1. Tom, I agree…I believe the tv mets are holding back just to be sure so the viewing public won’t panic.

  6. I just heard on WBZ-TV news that Mayor Bloomberg is going to make a decision tomorrow evening to evacuate parts of N.Y.C. It hasn’t been done since 1821.

  7. Todd on BZ did note tonight that the models are showing a greater spread than they did yesterday. Yesterday there was a greater model convergence.

  9. Please take note: FYI

    Red Sox will play doubleheader on Saturday with Game #2 at 5:00 pm…no game Sunday!

  10. Just to note: I have an old book by David Ludlum that has a list of every N.E. hurricane from 1635-1975.

  12. I know pinning down the track is absolutely crucial in order to answer this for sure, but does anyone have any thoughts on how Worcester will fare on Sunday?

    1. Christie as you know it can go either way there, but do not be surprised if the center goes right over the city and you get the “best” of both worlds, or the “worst” depending on your desired results.

      1. That’s what I was getting at — with all the model wobbling, I have a feeling Worcester could end up with the eye directly overhead. Thanks for the response!

  15. Good Morning. A great day today to get any preperations done. As of the 5AM advisory Irene downgraded to a category 2 with 110 mph winds. Hurricane and Tropical storm watches up for SNE. I would expect those to be upgraded to warnings later. With the latest track from the hurricane center is brings the center across Central Long Island into about New Haven, CT and tracks Northeast from there.

  16. Will see when the new track comes out at 11AM if it moves further east. As I said yesterday I think Irene has a few surprises up her sleeve for us.

  17. So the 06z GFS and nam are both east of yesterday. The NAM bring her right through Worcester if I am seeing correctly.

  18. No matter what happens everyone is going to be impacted by this in some way shape or form. Its a question which areas are going to get hit the worst. The latest track from the hurricane center looks pretty close to Gloria in 1985.

  20. I think 30 to 40 miles eastward adjustment is huge for our particular region. It keeps the center over water and puts that right side 30 to 40 miles closer to us…….I think this just increased the wind threat significantly…..

    Taunton’s NWS discussion seems to play up Saturday’s rain…….

  21. Good morning. Will it be a cat 1 or 2. I seem to remember Gloria as a weak cat 1 and am wondering how this will compare

    1. Hi Vicki,

      Category wise, it could be either….. I’m trying to choose words appropriately and not get carried away……I think the wind issue for our area (Humarock and Fitchburg) increased overnight. As an example, yesterday, I was thinking for Marshfield, sustained to 30-40, gusts a little higher……now this morning, I’m thinking sustained to 50-60, gusts to 70 or maybe even hurricane force.

      1. Thanks Tom. Are those winds more in line with a TS than hurricane? Winds here yesterday according to my phone app were sustained at 19 with gusts to 27.

        We are heading to Scituate for breakfast. It’ll be interesting to see if people are already pulling boats. We haven’t seen any sign of that here

        1. Potentially similar to Marshfield, because even though Framingham is inland, it is closer to the track. So, while the lands friction would decrease the winds some, being closer to the track would increase them a bit and maybe cause there to be similar wind speeds in both areas.

  22. Tom well said about choosing words wisely. I think many people will be in panic mode today and tomorrow.

  23. So I have a Davis Weather Station at home, the sensors are outside attached to a pipe above my shed. Do you think I should take it down so it doesn’t get damaged or keep it up to monitor the situation.

    1. Hi Coastal.

      Depends what you want…..does your data record to paper? Might be cool to have that data on paper if things ramp up. On the other hand, if this is expensive equipment or hard to replace…..

  24. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

    There’s a weak trof in the Gulf of Mexico that is throwing a little bit of SW shear onto Irene, as the NHC talked about in their 5 pm discussion. The outflow looks excellent to the north and east of the hurricane. I wonder what will happen later today, as Irene gets a bit further north and moves away from that Gulf trof providing a bit of shear.

  26. Two more questions. Can you guess at the winds in uxbridge. It’s slightly east of Worcester on RI line.

    Also even without a storm surge will tides be high enough to come up over the land on Humarock. Both from river and ocean. That’s a difficult one to answer I know and may not even be possible to answer

    1. Not sure on Uxbridge question….

      Low tide at Humarock is about 5pm Sunday afternoon and thats going to help out greatly. I personally dont think flooding on the Massachusetts east coast is a problem, based on the current track. Its Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay.

  27. Models have done the eastward correction, and now as expected the government’s official track has been adjusted.
    And a new blog has been posted!

    I am off to Maine for the day, checking in via mobile! Have a great day everyone!

  28. It appears that Irene is going through some intensification and looks like it’s trying to develop an eye, also it looks like it’s going to go right over the outer banks

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