Great Day Today, And Then…

8:03AM

A trend back east with Irene’s track on some of the major computer models indicates they are correcting their too-far-westward shift of the day before, in my opinion, and we’ll be happy at this point we did not jump on the “westward-ho-go-the-models” band wagon. Don’t like to do it with winter storms, don’t like to do it with tropical cyclones. So all in all the same general idea applies on this morning’s forecast. Irene will skirt NC and move N to NNE just offshore the Delmarva & NJ during the next couple of days on its way to an eventual Long Island NY & South Coast of New England landfall late Sunday, and from there a path across MA, odds favoring central parts of the state, and on into NH and Maine, then long gone by the late night of Sunday when the stars may already be shining. And as we have been talking about in the discussions and comments, this should be a classic New England hurricane, losing tropical characteristics as it accelerates through, but maintaining enough strength to be significant, with the eastern side being the big wind side (along with the storm surge at the coast), and the western side being the big rain side.

Don’t forget that hurricanes and tropical storms can produce isolated tornadoes, especially on their eastern sides when moving northward. This is not meant to alarm anybody, but just to make you aware that they are possible.

This is by no means the final call on Irene’s path! There are still conditions that exist that can effect both the track and expected strength of this hurricane.

Look for updates during the course of the day in the comments section below, mostly from some of my readers, as I will be out of town most of the day (will check in via mobile).

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny, warm, and humid. High 81-86. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, mild, and muggy. Low 64-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, warm, and very humid. Isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon, a few of which may be heavy. High 73-78. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of tropical showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog, possibly dense at times. Low 64-69. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Fog possible in the morning. Tropical showers most numerous in the morning, likely heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms as well. Showers may become less numerous for a time in the afternoon before a core of heavy rain approaches from the SSW as early as the end of the afternoon or early evening. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind varying from SE to S mostly 10-20 MPH during the day with higher gusts, increasing to 25-45 MPH and stronger with powerful gusts possible in the evening, greatest chance of strong tropical storm to hurricane force wind gusts will be at coastal and higher elevations. Isolated tornadoes are possible, but not likely.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Conditions the same as Sunday evening before improving as rain ends from south to north and clouds break during the night. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind, dependent on the exact path, should shift from S to SW then W at least 25-45 MPH sustained, possibly stronger, with higher gusts (these directions could change if the center of the storm is closer, and we will detail that as things become more clear, closer to the event).

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty, diminishing slowly.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

152 thoughts on “Great Day Today, And Then…”

  1. Thanks TK!!

    Yes I never bought into a westward shift either yesterday. Just did not believe it could happen.

      1. You got this lurker’s vote. 🙂

        Any chance I could get someone’s take on what Millis, MA will see on Sunday (assuming the current forecast track and intensity)? Should I expect sustained hurricane-force winds that far inland?

    1. TK – third time I voted! Hope you are enjoying the day and hope your son enjoys his birthday.

    1. And, as was the case yesterday, the pressure stays the same from Cape Hatteras, NC to landfall on Long Island. That amazes me.

  2. That was 06Z NAM. Sorry. AND it was significantly farther East than yesterday’s
    runs. So That is the point.

  3. Hadi,

    Looks like landfall on LI and then South Coast of Ct. How Far East?
    Ah, that is the question.

    Probably somwhat West of my original call, say something like 10-30 West of
    New London.

    Who knows for sure.

    BTw, this thing is down to 110. It was supposed to be a cat4 yesterday.
    Something is up. Makes me think that it may be weaker than originally thought
    when it gets up here, which is a very good thing.

    I am beginning to think that it is now getting OVER HYPED.

    Just my opinion.

    1. I think Tom eluded to a little shear that was sucking some energy out near Florida. I think once it clears that area it should pick up some steam. I guess we shall see!!

  4. Speaking of Over-hyping – don’t you just love The Weather Channel’s music? After the commercials comes this dramatic music and big lettering IRENE. Now, everyone should be taking this storm seriously, of course – but do we need the big music? Just my opinion – this storm speaks for itself. I wish they would down-tone the music a little.

    Also I have seen the NE movement of storm. Interesting to watch what happens.

  5. The GFDL is an outlier. I am thinking Irene goes through Central Long Island then makes landfall between New Haven CT which is the central part of CT and New London CT which is the eastern part of CT. If that happens it would be the first landfalling hurricane in CT since Gloria in 1985. I am not focused on where it makes landfall since tropical storm force wind extend out a huge way from the center.

  6. I’ve been watching the weather channel…..maybe thats why my concern level is increasing 🙂

    2 things that concern me

    – The outflow to the north, northwest and east of the storm continues to be excellent. As it moves north, it should move away from a little SW shear coming from a gulf of mexico trof that can be seen on the water vapor satellite. I am worried about intensification as it approaches the NC coast. The heat content of the ocean with the gulf stream is excessive. A fisherman that Mike Seidel interviewed yesterday in NC said the water temp several miles offshore was 88F.

    – I think the models have kind of shown that the pressure doesnt change much from the Carolinas to landfall in western/central Long Island. So, if by chance, it intensifies later today, then what comes into Long Island could be stronger than currently projected.

  7. Tom,

    That is a concern. Thank you for pointing that out.
    We’ll have to monitor the intensity as the day progresses.

    Should it intensify, then perhaps the hype would be justified.
    If not, then no.

  8. All current signs point to pretty much what JJ was saying.
    We’ll look forward to the 12Z guidance for updates.

  9. What are we looking for a time line on this. I know that showers are expected tomorrow but when are things going to ramp up wind wise and when do you think we will see improvement? Judging by the track I think it is on LI at 2pm on Sunday but I maybe way off.

  10. Not much out west to push it OTS, warm gulf stream, and lots of energy. Thousands of people will be very sad in the next few days.

  11. Coastal I think in the early afternoon for Long Island.
    I know TK mentioned about the threat of tornadoes. They are isolated and weak should they spin up from the rain bands that come onshore and to right of where the center comes onshore. I am not saying this is going to happen but I have seen in the past where a tornado watch is issued just before a tropical system makes landfall.

  12. JJ,
    I agree. Have seen tornado watches even HERE for landfalling tropical systems.
    AND, it appears we will be in the correct quadrant for this type of situation.

    Here’s betting the watch WILL be issued on Sunday.

  13. It really is starting to look like Gloria. The thing that is amazing to me is the size of this storm. To me it does not matter what category hurricane it is when it gets up here or if it should weaken to a tropical storm there are going to be big time impacts. Remember Ike in 2008 the last landfalling hurricane in the U.S. was a category 2 hurricane at landfall but because of its huge size it caused a lot of damage and I believe they retired the name.

  14. East or west a little I don’t think is going to make a big difference for a storm over 400 miles wide as it’s going to impact a lot of people regardless.

  15. Latest from NHC:

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…30.7N 77.3W
    ABOUT 330 MI…530 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…946 MB…27.93 INCHES

    1. I do os, it will be a minimal hurricane 75mph coming into Long Island, it’s possible it could be a strong tropical storm 65 or 70 mph but at that point we r on the right side, expect some minor to moderate wind damage.

  16. This thing I believe is going to ride the coast or just off the coast go 25 miles east of NYC and possibly right over Hartford, at that point it will be decaying from a hurricane to a 65mph tropical storm, late sat night I think we start feeling Irene and the 1st half of Sun, it’s quite possible that if ur a late sleeper u will miss the brunt which looks to be between 5am-noon Sunday.

  17. As I said earlier because Irene so large to me it does not matter what it is when it gets up to SNE. The threats don’t change they may not be as bad. I am still thinking coastal flooding and inland flooding damaging wind gusts with power outages and the possiblity of weak tornadoes to the right of where Irene comes ashore.

  18. JJ,

    I still think that the impact here will be far less than what was originally forecast, unless of course Irene strengthens and is more powerful when she arrives.

  19. Non weather related question. House we are in has propane for heat, hot water, etc Person we rent from says even without electricity we will have running hot and cold water. My son on law is a plumber and said you still need electricity to run hit water regulator and water pump unless this house is hooked up in a way he’s never heard of.

    Anyone know of a different way for these beach houses to be set up? Or is the guy giving us a line.

  20. Sorry Vickie,
    No expert, but is it town water? Or well water?
    If well water, then you would have a pump, persumably run on electricity.

    If town water, it is delivered via water pressure. NO pump involved.

    Just my thoughts.

    1. That’s what I thought too. I think it may be town

      We are planning to stay till tomorrow evening I thought we would not feel effects until Sunday afternoon. Above it was said it would be here earlier. Does anyone know the time frame?

  21. That would still be quite an impact here if still a hurricane. Hard to know at this time.
    Btw, That bugger is laying down an unbelievable amount of rain. That may be our biggest problem of all.

  22. And in some areas of SNE the ground is very saturated with the recent rains that have happened. You add the kind of rain projected and damaging wind gusts its a receipe for trees to come down which could lead to a good amount of power outages.

  23. On the 12z GFS…..I just dont understand the pressures and how they initialize…because it looks like it initializes at 984mb near its current position. But, I find it interesting that its lowest pressure occurs off of the NC Coast, it drops to 972 and then maintains to 976 all the way to landfall.

  24. Right now the storm is moving N. Approx. when would it start turning E? And what would be steering it more E? Would it be the front that went through here last night?

  25. Pressure up a little more to 951mb, per most recent vortex data message on NHC website. Cloud tops have warmed for most of the hurricane, but the last couple images seem to show the eye again and the beginning of colder cloud tops on the northern eye wall. Lets see what happens the next couple of hours.

    1. The 2 models above continue to have a higher initialized pressure with a pressure fall as it nears NC outer coast, that they maintain all the way to landfall in the long island area. I dont know if this is normal or not, but its consistent, and its why I still think strengthening could occur.

      Thanks for posting the models !!

  26. Tom,

    Re: Pressures

    From the NHC, we get the lowest pressure. On the models, you will not the
    pressure isobars stop at a circle that is much large than the eye, therefore,
    it is my opinion that what is depicted on the models, does not necessarily represent
    the lowest pressure from the system. Of course I do NOT know this for a fact.

    Given that, what is depicted stays all the way to LI, which must mean something?

    It “should” mean that the storm will still be pretty intense when it gets up here? no?

    I think you are onto something.

    Let’s keep watching.

    Thanks

  27. It sure did decrease, but in the last few frames, it looks to be increasing significantly and rapidly to boot. SO, just maybe something is happening????

    1. Yeah, looks like it’s teasing us – or trying to decide where to go! 🙂 This storm looks like it’s going to keep us on our toes for awhile.

      1. Kind of curious why it would keep gaining and losing strength – maybe something to do w/dry air coming in?? (don’t want to go there – reminds me of last winter with dry air coming into some storm (I think it was last winter – it was something, anyway).

        1. I have another theory. The atmosphere above the storm is fairly healthy, so I dont think thats the primary reason.

          They keep saying how large the storm and the windfield is. Well, you know when a skater or something spins faster and faster, the object kind of contracts. So, maybe the spread out wind field is not allowing the inner core to intensify……I think it is possible for the wind field to contract some and for the inner core to re-intensify. We’ll see.

  28. Don’t know. There was some shear earlier. There is supposed to be a window
    for awhile with no shear, before shear plays a role again later. We shall see.

    1. I think you’re answering my question, Old Salty – if so, thanks.

      I guess we will just have to keep watching. It’s just so hard sometimes – I want to say sometimes, Hey! That’s what will happen. But tropical systems – and the weather in general – is always full of surprises. That’s what makes it so interesting.

  29. There’s no shear now and it should be strengthening, someones blowing cold air into the eye, very weird

  30. The 18Z NAM is coming out and I may be off, but it looks to be East by some compared to the 12Z run. I am comparing where it qas by Hatteras. 12Z was on shore, 18Z is just off shore. Can’t tell for sure, but I’d say 25 or 30 miles more to the East? ???? Don’t know how that will translate up here. We’ll see soon.

  31. Old Salty there is dry air coming into the western side. I would not be surprised if this weakens a little more before it gets to the Outer Banks. I am still not letting my guard down and I am prepared whatever Irene brings us.

  32. JJ,

    FWIW, the 18Z NAM seems to crank it up after it passes the outer banks.
    Hmmm… Interesting.

    If it continues to weaken, excellent!. Hope there is no last minute super surprise!

  33. BTW, In case it wasn’t mentioned already.
    Where irene is passing off shore, but not too far off shore….
    The closer to shore, the warmer the SSTs are. This water is reasonably warm
    ALL the way up to Long Island and Ct. I know it is not above 80, but it is close
    to 80, I think enough to keep things going.

    We shall see.

  34. Ok it’s in. Here is the 18ZNAM Loop.
    It brings it over Central Long Island, Eastern CT and then almost over Boston.

    Not a very good scenario, IF this were to verify. CLEARLY more EAST than
    12Z run. looks by at least 50 miles or so up. A significant difference with a system
    like this.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F26%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  35. only 3-4 inches of rain for Boston area and not 5-10 inches, which clearly would be better. Still a bit of time, but it is running out.

  36. I guess I was kind of right about the dry air – but that is prob’ly only temporary. Channel 7 meter. says some dry air has weakened it some – some early info. (not official yet, I guess) that storm could actually come up to New England as a Tropical Storm. No watches or warnings have changed and nothing is set in stone – things can change so fast.

    Wow – I hope we only get a tropical storm, but we will see.

  37. What an idiot Bouchard is he says it’s big development that instead of a hurricane hitting us 75mph, it’s now only gonna be a tropical storm 70 mph, he sounds kinda like someone that doesn’t know weather, u got Harvey Leonard saying wind damage is very likely with power outages across the area similar to Gloria and u got Bouchard saying it’s not gonna be a big deal. Will c

  38. Hi Guys- Just getting home from work, another busy day at work preparing for this storm. I know some watches and warning are out. Could someone please get me up to date on what this area should expect (PEMBROKE ) what warning am I in, rain fall and expected wind gusts. Should I continue with my putting stuff away. Sorry but It looks I may just have tomorrow to prepare, as I will more than likely get called into work early Sunday and be there till Monday afternoon. Thank’s.

    1. Hi John.

      Some point during the day on Sunday, a few hours of tropical storm force winds, maybe enough wind to cause power issues. Some rain as early as tomorrow, but I think Sunday could be fairly dry.

      1. So Tom- is this going to dud out here for us. Is the wind the bigest problem for us, as well as extreme storm surge. Could the TS warning be upgraded for us. Sorry Tom. Oh and last how is this compare to Gloria.

        1. Oh, I dont think its a dud. Yes, I think for southeast Mass, wind is a bigger issue than rain. I think there’s a hurricane warning for the Cape and a tropical storm warning, points north…..I’d think the chances of power outages is good, but hopefully not long lasting.

  39. I’m stubborn……I still dont think the intensity is slowly down from here for the rest of the storm. Circulation now approaching the gulf stream and the upper level environment, particular to its north, looks great.

    1. I am confused by your post- could you explain. Since we are now closing in on the storm, for old time sakes I may havto go back to calling you SST.

      1. LOL…..

        The storm has weakened some today, down to Cat 2, 100 mph sustained, the pressure has risen to 951mb and the convection around the center has tempered. The NHC described that the windfield is large, but the inner core has weakened, if not collapsed. My post was me just being stubborn thinking that the inner core might strengthen some, because it will be going over the mid to high 80F waters and the outflow that “lets the storm breathe” looks great to its north.

    1. Hi Philip- not to answer for Tom but they have a couple more weeks before the job is done. They said this morning it would be reenforced for the storm.

      1. Thanks John…I hope that wall holds up. At least (hopefully) Irene will weaken considerably to a tropical storm as forecasted.

  40. Tropical Storm conditions could still cause a good amount of damage and to me is a big deal. Latest track takes the center of the storm through western parts of CT. Whether its a cateogory 1 hurricane or tropical storm when it gets hear my concerns remain for flooding strong damaging wind gusts that could cause power outages.

  41. With Mayor Bloomberg shutting down the N.Y.C. subway system got me “remembering”. Boston shut down the MBTA for awhile during hurricane Bob (1991) but IIRC it was just for a short time.

      1. I am sorry I misread and posted to fast, did not know about that closing. I take the T everyday from Quincy and no matter what they seem to stay open, slow service but open.

  42. Cloud tops are cooling around the center. Hints of the eye showing up. Awaiting next recon pressure. Last one was down 1 mb from 951 to 950mb.

      1. Hmm… Is it just me or is she shifting a little east already? Local mets haven’t been forecasting the eastward shift to happen until after the Carolinas.

  43. It really looks like it could spend alot of it’s time over water after it crosses the outer banks

    1. The central dense overcast around the center has cooled some the last couple hours and the pressure has leveled off the last few hours, if not falling a mb or two. It will be interesting to see if this is a temporary thing or a trend. Next several hours, the system is over excessively warm water and its breathing well aloft, especially to its north.

  44. Still 100 mph winds with Irene and now as indicated a northeast heading.
    Tornado Watch down for the Outer Banks until 5AM which is not a surprise because that usually happens ahead of a landfalling tropical system. I would not be surprised if no is issued for parts of SNE on Sunday.

  45. Sorry Longshot…. I meant to say I would not be surprised if a tornado watch is issued for parts of SNE on Sunday before landfall just like there is tonight for the Outer Banks.

  46. First of all there weak isolated tornadoes EF0 EF1 strength and there rain wrapped in a tropical system so you are not going to see the tornado coming. I am not sure on this but I believe these spiral band comes in from the tropical system and if there is enough shear it could be enough for a tornado to spin up. Currently a tornado warning in the Outer Banks area.

  47. TK, I have two items for your attention:

    1. There is a “CS” over on Melissa’s blog who is looking for another weather blog. I don’t “think” it’s a troll but I will leave that up to you or Coastal, of course. E-mail address included in posting.

    2. I voted for you for the 3rd time so far. I am still amazed that you can vote multiple times (like American Idol?). 🙂

    1. You can vote once a day from each device and even from each browser you have! lol!

      I will check CS out. I have a mysterious reply pending on this blog I am checking into, because something doesn’t add up.

  48. Dry air getting into Irene and the center looking ragged. I would not be surprised if at the 11pm advisory the winds are 90 or 95 mph. The cirrculation still big and it looks to me it is the size of what Ike was if not a little bigger.

  49. But as soon as she hits the outer banks she will then lose steam as she nears NJ. I do think we will spared the worst.

  50. Kevin Lemanowicz is personally thinking the track will be further east, dependent upon the NHC 11:00 pm update. Weatherwise, especially during hurricane season these local 10:00 pm newscasts are pretty much useless…the tv met can only give “8:00” pm info, which, probably for all practical purposes is really “5:00” pm info.

  51. Interesting…..at 8pm, first indication of slight easterly component to the motion, at 015 degrees…..Now, at 11pm…..its at 020 degrees……I think this sends the center over Pamlico Sound and keeps it over ocean, just east of the coast.

    The pressure has stablelized since early afternoon, holding around 950 to 951mb and the satellite presentation continues, in my opinion, to slowly improve right around the center of circulation.

  52. You’re all weather geniuses! Most of you were anticipating the eastern shift 36 hours ago, when most models (and t.v. mets too!) called for the western route. Bravo!

    Think she’ll re-strengthen a bit? All that warm water plus if she doesn’t quite hit land directly until she gets closer to us…?

    1. Sometimes simple meteorology is the way to go.

      Thanks for reading and being very supportive!

      We cannot rule out a final burst of strengthening because the water is quite warm and Irene is away from some of the southwest sheer that hurt it earlier in the day.

  53. Irene right now will be a hurricane or a strong tropical storm when it makes landfall in CT based on the current track. Now if it could go over the Jersey shore instead of saying over the ocean that will disrupt but were still looking at a lot of rain here in SNE along with damaging wind gusts.
    Another thing to look at is the threat of those isolated weak tornadoes. There was one confirmed one in North Carolina from those outer bands from Irene.

  54. Todd at BZ said track and intensity are holding steady but did mention the eye opening up a little. I can’t explain it but I felt that Todd wanted to say more about the track, but wasn’t willing to “go there.” I wondered if he wanted to say a little more east that what the models are saying.

    1. I have a feeling this storm has some tricks. I think we get a good hit here. I plan on getting up at 7am to secure my property.

  55. Something’s fishy, the center or the ragged eye is moving nne and unless it turns due north it’s gonna pass on or just east of the outer banks, then there alot of 76-81 degree water till Long island, it still looks like a formidable storm

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