Monday Forecast

64 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
Low pressure sits atop southeastern New England today, another cool and somewhat unsettled day. This low exits stage east on Tuesday, opening the door to a westerly flow over the top of a high pressure ridge along the US East Coast and a summer preview mid to late week. By Friday, a cold front will be close enough to the region to introduce the chance of some passing showers and thunderstorms as well. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. A few may contain brief downpours and small hail. Highs 52-59. W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early. Lows 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers midday. Highs 57-63 South Coast, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-74 South Coast, 75-83 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s South Coast, upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s South Coast, upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)
A front will be in the region for much of this period with temperature swings and also the risk of a few episode of wet weather. However there will be stretches of fair weather as well. Timing and details uncertain at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)
For now staying with the outlook for a typical springtime up/down temperature pattern with a few episodes of unsettled weather.

64 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Can we get the showers out here by Sox game time please. Taking my dad to his first baseball game in over 50 years. And my first game ever with him!!

      1. That is awesome! I hope you guys have a great time. I will help push the rain out of the city you!

    2. Hadi , this is as good as it gets. Have a wonderful time and I’m working on getting the showers out also.

      1. The same thing that always happens – variability. It’s never been “linear” around here.

  9. The last day of winter (temps). šŸ˜‰

    Back to the winter coat, knit hat and gloves for one last day!

  10. From NWS Taunton.
    A couple of shortwaves and some instability will bring at least the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms Thu and Fri with the greatest risk across interior southern New England. Wind fields are impressive…but there are questions on just how much instability can develop which is often the case this time of year. Nonetheless…something will have to watch in the coming days.

  11. Thanks TK !

    Perhaps the very chilly several week pattern of March and the first 2/3rds of April will be followed by a May that doesn’t offer many cold, raw, NE wind weather days. At least in the next 10 days, we seem to not be in line for any of those type of days.

  12. 12z runs of American models aggressive with some of the severe parameters for Thurs. I am not buying these solutions but I would not rule out some rumbles on Thursday.

    1. Interesting, indeed. I wouldn’t bet on it, especially in Eastern Sections.
      If anything, out in Western Sections.

  13. I was just out doing some stuff on my Vehicle and I was looking at the sky as a light rain started to fall again. I saw something up there and I thought it was a plane, but it
    wasn’t moving enough. Then I saw it move and the wings flap. It was some sort of
    bird way up there, just under the cloud level and occasionally disappearing into
    the cloud deck. This bird is very large to be sure. Wondering what it was?

    Here are my suspects in order:

    Hawk
    Sea Gull
    Eagle

    NOT a goose or swan as it was flying too gracefully and gliding etc., not charateristics
    of Geese or Swans. They fly, but seem to have to put forth quite an effort to do so.
    The bird I witnessed was staying aloft effortlessly.

    I presume it is a rather large hawk, but I have seen eagles in the area before.
    I do not think it is a sea gull, although I suppose it could be.

    Any ideas out there?

    Many thanks

      1. I could see the wings when they flapped. Good deal of gliding/soaring going on. And it tended to circle around, that’s
        why I think it was a big Hawk.

        1. if it was circulating it is a hawk, its an adaptation that only birds of prey really use. It helps use less energy as they use the radiation heating and circulation of wind, you probably also saw a certain direction based on wind direction, usually they go against the wind when in the hunt but in the circular rotation, so that they can counter the drag. When not in the hunt, they go where ever they want.

    1. Puff, the magic dragon lived by the sea
      And frolicked in the autumn mist in a land called Honahlee
      Little Jackie paper loved that rascal puff
      And brought him strings and sealing wax and other fancy stuff oh

  15. JPDave I agree with you. Its the western sections with the best chances of some rumbles Thurs. I still think 12z runs of American models are too aggressive with some of the parameters.

  16. I think the 12z EURO severe parameters will be much more realistic for Thurs and Fri than the 12z runs of the GFS and NAM.

  17. Looks like some convective type showers have popped, in a swath, about 20 miles either side of the Mass Pike in central and eastern Mass.

      2. I think there will be a batch of showers in that area between 6 and 8 but the core of them may end up just to the west. 50/50 shot on the baseball.

  18. Thank you, TK.

    JPDave, Large bird circling high above is usually a hawk in these parts.

    As far as the mid- to long-term range forecast is concerned, my general confidence level is never high in the spring. That is, anything beyond 3-5 days from now is subject to (sometimes significant) change. All one has to do is review forecasts from the last 2 months to see that beyond 5 days they were often far off the mark. This is not a criticism of forecasters, but more a statement regarding long-term forecasts during our most variable season. So, will it warm up this week? Yes, but how long that lasts and how much drier of a pattern we enter into remains to be seen. While we in SNE will not be seeing frost for another 5-6 months, I believe we’ll continue to see oscillating temperatures and frequent instability for at least another 4 weeks.

  19. Tied for fifth in coldest April of all time for Hartford area and coldest April since 1956 according to tweet from Ryan Hanrahan. I am curious to see where the other reporting stations in SNE come in at.

    1. I think a lot of people feel the way you do about this month of April and will be happy to see it go. There was even snow in parts of Northwest CT today.

    2. I always hated spring, mainly for allergies, but for also that stupid thing called spring clean up. Professors and teachers become full of themselves and think their class is all that matters and put a bunch of crap on their students because they fall behind in the fall. ( don’t try to blame this on snow days either, you people can now assign stuff for those days via technology) Everything I do in spring I can do in the summer and fall. Spring is just a meh season that I hope will just be over as soon as possible. I can’t wait to put my feet on that warm summer sand at the beach just to freeze my but off when I go into the water.

      I guess what I am saying is that I hate spring just as much as you do.

      1. Never šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

        The world doesn’t revolve around math ????? , lol ……….

  22. I won’t post it here but if your on my facebook, go take a look at the speech from the French president. It is amazing.

  23. Late winter like feel today. 36 at my house this morning and didn’t make it above 46 for a high with on and off showers. Just missed being cold enough for what would have been the 9th day this month with some sort of frozen precip.

    As JJ alluded to, it was cold enough for snow this AM in NW CT. This was the seen in Norfolk, CT this AM:

    https://twitter.com/RussellRuss7/status/990964947260706816

      1. Is it bad that these photos make me smile. I can never tire of seeing snow

        Air was cold but sun was warm.

  24. I seem to recall the CFS model about a month ago showed a cold system with rain and snow in the Northeast for 4/29-4/30. Nailed it!

  25. Killington with 3″ of fresh snow and mid winter conditions today. They ran 3 lifts and had 55 trails open this past weekend, including even a handful of natural snow glades. This was the last weekend they were operating the K1 Gondola. Now just running the Superstar quad daily through May 6 and then weekends until the snow is gone. Will be interesting to see if they make it till June 1st again this year. They load a tremendous amount of snow onto the Superstar trail (25-30 feet) but with the outlook for more summerlike temps the next few weeks, I think the snow is going to start to go fast.

    Jay Peak is also still open with nearly 50 trails and plans to be open until May 6. After May 6, its down to just Killington. I believe everywhere else in the Northeast is now officially shut down for the season after this past weekend. Sad times šŸ™

    1. I noticed Mt Washington reporting snow or heavy snow all day yesterday. Tuckerman’s ravine probably will have snow into June.

  26. 6.35″ the final tally in my rain gauge (combo of rain and melted frozen precip) for the month of April. That’s a positive start at least for the growing season.

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