Friday Forecast

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)
This post does not carry much change from what was posted at this time yesterday. Still looking at a warm front (Saturday) / cold front (Sunday) weekend, unsettled but not washed out. Still keeping the shower threat in the Monday forecast for one additional disturbance. Expecting fair weather beyond that into midweek as high pressure arrives. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible, favoring mid morning through early afternoon. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of showers. Increasingly humid. Lows 60-65. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
Expecting mainly dry weather for this period but will watch for small disturbances coming along a weaker jet stream in a general west to east flow. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)
Much of this period looks dry with minimal shower and thunderstorm threat but always need to watch for disturbances with the jet stream not too far to the north. Temperatures generally above normal with a high pressure ridge in the eastern US.

84 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yet another in a long string of absolutely beautiful weather. Not a complaint in the world about this weather. Give it to me every day. Love it!!!

    1. I sure do agree, JPD. I’m off today as well as the weekend and had a good portion of yesterday off. So nice!

  2. Thanks TK.

    There is going to be some *hot* weather across the CONUS as we head into July. Big subtropical ridge building in. Whether the heat is cenetered more over the East or Midwest remains to be seen, but I think either way we’ll likely be piling up 90 degree days in a hurry once we turn the calendar.

  3. Thanks TK
    From John Homenuk about the potential for that heat heading into July. We MAY have to watch for thunderstorms in this pattern.
    Things change significantly next week. Overnight ECMWF EPS were even more amplified with a well-supported and teleconnected heat ridge over the OV and Eastern US developing Days 7-10. Significant heat risk underneath this ridge and severe weather risk on its periphery.

  4. JPD – I talked to AcuRite….very nice gentleman. He said everything is set up correctly. He wants me to take a screen shot of some specific router information. He doesn’t think this is the problem but is not sure what else it could be.

    1. Hmmm,
      I am wondering if it something in your firewall? But then you are getting
      through with the mobile device??????
      Very strange.
      They’ll figure it out.
      Good luck.

      1. He said it is unlikely since my station is reporting to My AcuRite. But it is something. It would be nice if Wunderground got back to me at some point.

          1. Hi Scott. According to AcuRite, all is set up properly. The station isn’t showing up on Wunder. Wunder isn’t getting back to me. I need to get a screen shot of the splash page through verizon to AcuRite when I get home.

            1. I had to connect the Acurite display to my pc and then the station was recognized under Wunder. Have you tried this?

                1. Thank you, Scott. Your help is greatly appreciate. Old Salty can correct me if I am incorrect. My system doesn’t use PC Connect but does use a smartHUB which is configured to connect to Wunderground. I think they are trying to decide it it is something in my router except that didn’t make sense to anyone since the hub is communicating with my computer, phone and ipad.

  5. Been out and about. It is most beautiful. Nice cool breeze if that’s what you like, but a strong sun to warm up easily in. A couple of ocean stratus here and there with a southwest sky covered with cirrus.

    It’s happened quick the last 5 days or so …. a majority of lawns have really dried out and are showing burnt stress. Gone is that dark, thick green look.

    1. Agree, except just back from the coast the effects of that cooler breeze
      are substantially minimized. 😀

      re: Lawns
      You are absolutely correct. Mine is just barely holding onto that green look.
      It is not quite lush green, but it is not too bad just yet. Getting there.

      1. Ours started turning weeks ago but as I’ve said we have a sand base and absolutely no shade. I was watering twice but switched to once a day yesterday. Lawn looks a bit better but if we have the heat you all are discussing, it will have to go dormant.

  6. They could really get brown those lawns if that heat dome sets up over us in early July and we can’t get any rain from showers and storms.

  7. TK, I apologize if I have missed one of your long range predictions, but I’m wondering what your thoughts are on long term precipitation trends. With the drought monitor having us in MA and most of NE in Abnormally Dry, do you see this worsening over the long term? Any concerns about a prolonged drought going into fall/winter? Thanks in advance!

  8. 12z GFS places ridge on east coast with 594 DM contour centered just south of New England and the 591 DM contour all the way to the Canadian border.

    Where will the 12z Euro place it ??

  9. My question with the pattern is are we going to get some ridge riding thunderstorms in this pattern that could pack a punch.

  10. Last summer I was on Nantucket all summer. So when it was hot out. It was very pleasent on the island in the 80s. I might be on another island come July for a job possibility.

    1. OK, looks like I will be the 1st to reply, unless someone else is in the process
      of typing as I type.

      SPECTACULAR!!!!! I just wonder how much money they spent to produce that.
      If it saves just one life, it was worth it. I LOVED IT! Of course, I am a big
      fan of Cantore.

      Met him once years ago during a snow storm. His crew was at the
      Crown Plaza on Rt. 9 in Natick. I drove out there from JP with my wife
      and son just to see him. My wife and son stayed in the car while I spoke with Cantore. He invited me into the truck to see the whole set up and then
      had me watch as he went live on air. Awesome experience. He was great.
      Very friendly.

      Perfect host for that little production.

      THANK YOU for sharing this as I hardly ever watch the Weather Channel.

  11. Looking at the 12Z Euro, it advertises much MORE rain for tomorrow than we have been hearing. 😀

    1. I have a very big outdoor event to attend tomorrow. Rain date is Sunday… 😉

      1. Hmmmm –

        Daughter postponed her son’s party until next weekend. It is risky but then he wants a bounce house and even showers will mess with that. This way at least she tried.

  12. Using climatology, New England weather trends and the 12z EURO …. I throw out there that when the heat builds in the central part of the US at months end, it may either get cut off from New England just to our southwest or be repeatedly tempered by occasional cool fronts passing thru New England.

    I don’t think Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit or St. Louis will be as fortunate.

    1. Give me a wind at Humarock and I’ll be happy as a clam. I’m 75% packed…..I might be a tad bit anxious 😉

    2. It won’t be completely cut off but the center of the heat dome will be in the central US until at least mid July.

      1. Hmmm, then this would place us in the hear periodically, but
        interspersed with Canadian Highs cutting off the heat
        from time to time, presumably accompanied by showers and
        thunderstorms. With the HHH, sounds like opportunities
        for Severe weather. yes? no? Keep my mouth shut?

  13. Vicki, scott,

    I could not respond under the post above.

    Regarding AcuRite., Although I don’t know for sure what model you have, it sure sounds like you have the same model as I do or a very similar one. Mine does Not have
    the PC Connect. It utilizes a Smart Hub to communicate with Wunder and the mobile App as well. I presume yours as well.

    1. I have the 06006M. And it is very close to yours and does have raw smartHub.

      I’m locked out of verizon. I tried two times for PW. It did not have option of “forgot password”. So have to wait till tomorrow.

      Son in law just stabilized unit so the wind direction is now accurate.

      Apologies for posts taking up space in this but truly appreciate Scott’s and Old Salty’s help.

      1. No problem happy to help Vicki. I didn’t think I had to do the PC connect either, but that seemed to do the trick for mine.

          1. I do not and with that which you said you have you shouldn’t have to connect to a PC. You could try it though to see what happens if all else fails.

  14. Thanks TK for answering a question I was going to ask you that if we get into the northwest flow will there be chances for severe weather.

    1. Classic example. Also, the New England tornado outbreak in August 1986 was a NW flow situation.

      1. As I recall there was a tornado around great barrington or somewhere out that way in the mid 1990s.

  15. Great Barrington MA tornado was F4 and was May 29 1995. I cannot recall specifically if it was NW flow but I don’t believe it was classic NW. I seem to recall one particular cell in a cluster going supercell and moving east and just maxing out right there.

    1. My oldest, a friend and their riding instructor were there for a horse show. First time then kids went without parents. They were grooming and not showing. I still recall the feelings hearing about it on the news. That was before cell phones so it was a while before we knew they were ok. Even her pony boarded in Ashland and other horses were spooky

  16. Going to share a couple photos I took earlier. I’m always happy to see honeybees about. They are so essential for pollination of plants that produce oxygen as well as our food supply.

    In this photo her wings are moving so quickly they don’t even show. Looks like a wingless bee floating in air.
    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/35930088_10156495911662265_3544231562692263936_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=c6a39a0dd560d1aee7e370237bb9706c&oe=5BB2D516

    In the second photo, she was happily probing a clover flower and kind of hiding from me at the same time. 😉
    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/35884193_10156495911732265_2503541242906804224_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=56936fd8693c25b745d7d1966ef18a44&oe=5BA62EC9

  17. Is the 00z EURO serious ???

    597 dm heights for a 500 mb ridge centered over New England with (22C) 850 mb temps ??????

  18. Nice pics TK. Thanks for sharing.
    Tom I saw that on the EURO. SWEATORAMA if that happens.

  19. Working on the update…

    I do think the heat is being slightly over-forecast by both GFS & ECMWF at this point and that the center of that heat dome will be a little further west overall. HOWEVER that does not prevent the possibility of a couple very hot days. The overall pattern is a warm one and upcoming that certainly will be the case. I just don’t think it will be persistent high heat here in southeastern New England during this stretch. As always will evaluate the upcoming expectations.

    Will post in a few when the new blog is up.

  20. How about this for a stretch of heat courtesy of the GFS?????????????????????

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018062306/gfs_T2m_neus_35.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018062306/gfs_T2m_neus_39.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018062306/gfs_T2m_neus_42.png

    That is “potentially” RECORD BREAKING heat for much of SNE.
    WE CANNOT ALLOW that to happen.

    TK, please see what you can do. Thanks

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